Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Just a couple words of advice.

 

[Cape Coddess]

Honestly that article I posted above is making me super pumped for battery day.

The simplification of assembly and manufacturing looks amazing... The pack-level gains will be huge.

https://twitter.com/_BRCooper/status/1306147826867605504

Wish I could go to sleep and wake up on tuesday!

 

[Nocturnal]

The entire market is down except for our favorite fraud stock. Amazing.

These battery day leaks are really interesting. I'm thinking that not only is this a genuine game changer in terms of the tech, but having actual cells/lines and perhaps even working cars with them should be enough for Wall Street to understand.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today's Tech chart: Opened below the Mid-BB 417.43 (big surprise /s)

 

[ggies07]

If the new Tesla "5498" can has 300wh/kg (Which I think is easily possible), that thing the guy is holding in his hand could hold about 200wh(!!)... enough to drive an M3 almost a mile!

If the 500 mile Cybertruck needs 200kwh, it would only need a thousand of these.

I'd bet 300wh/kg is possible even without Maxwell dry electrode... Elon was talking about 400wh/kg being possible by 2024, perhaps via tabless + dry electrode tech.

ICE doesn't stand a chance!

So can we finally get a $30k car? Tesla can have high margins on the S and X, but let's finally hit that next level of customers. It's all about accelerating the transition right? I still have too many people in my life saying $35k is too expensive for them....these are small families my age (mid 30s) that have at least two kids.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

So can we finally get a $30k car? Tesla can have high margins on the S and X, but let's finally hit that next level of customers. It's all about accelerating the transition right? I still have too many people in my life saying $35 is too expensive for them....these are small families my age (mid 30s) that have at least two kids.

agreed 110%
I dont give a toss about faster-charging, or longer range, or a million miles, or faster acceleration. All I want Tesla to deliver for me as an investor, is a path to cheaper batteries and LOTS of them. The model S P100D Ludicrous has already proven the point that tesla make cool fast electric cars, no need to care about taking away the last trivial percentage of the market that lamborghini have, lets take market share from toyota now.

 

[mikevbf]

My sophisticated analytical perspective: today's morning price movements is all about making sure everyone gets at least one 420 stock.

 

[scaesare]

Yes. I aint sure if this should have been kept a secret. I have my inside sources

Well, they acquired ScaleAI some time back, so I don't think it should come as any surprise to anybody they are using their technology...

Actually , I had that incorrect. They acquired DeepScale.

Apologies for the miscue, and thanks @amolina for the insight.

 

[Unpilot]

My sophisticated analytical perspective: today's morning price movements is all about making sure everyone gets at least one 420 stock.

You had to move fast...cause it looks to be gone now!

 

[UCF3]

Ford's making its electric F-150 a serious work truck in bid to set it apart from Tesla and GM pickups

“Ford plans to differentiate its upcoming electric F-150 from Tesla by retaining the vehicle’s focus on work rather than recreation”. Good luck with that

 

[Nocturnal]

So can we finally get a $30k car? Tesla can have high margins on the S and X, but let's finally hit that next level of customers. It's all about accelerating the transition right? I still have too many people in my life saying $35k is too expensive for them....these are small families my age (mid 30s) that have at least two kids.

It's frustrating because those people will spend 2k less on a car that will cost them more to own. People have a hard time looking past upfront costs.

agreed 110%
I dont give a toss about faster-charging, or longer range, or a million miles, or faster acceleration. All I want Tesla to deliver for me as an investor, is a path to cheaper batteries and LOTS of them. The model S P100D Ludicrous has already proven the point that tesla make cool fast electric cars, no need to care about taking away the last trivial percentage of the market that lamborghini have, lets take market share from toyota now.

As a customer I want those things. As an investor I want them to sell batteries and make money. As a human on the planet with kids and a general concern for others I want the transition to happen.

Fortunately Tesla is poised to do all of these things.

 

[llirk]

You had to move fast...cause it looks to be gone now!

In for another 100 at 420.69 and I couldn't be more excited!

 

[mikevbf]

You had to move fast...cause it looks to be gone now!

Edit: Tesla smokes past 420. Better?

 

[ggies07]

It's frustrating because those people will spend 2k less on a car that will cost them more to own. People have a hard time looking past upfront costs.

True, but it's because they have at least two kids and tons of bills. They need an affordable monthly payment right from the start.

 

[YAWD]

My math shows that while the cell energy density might be better, packing efficiency is worse. My calculations show the void between cylindrical cells increases by the square of the radius. So, the larger cells don't pack as well. I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere, but here's my chicken scratch (sorry on phone!)
View attachment 589003
Still is likely a net increase, only some gives back to worse packing density

True packing efficiency is worse but compare it to the fact that each 54980 cell is ~ 9 times bigger than 2170 cell. Consider 9 2170 cells packed in a 3x3 square and you will see that the surface that they occupy is 37% more than 1 single 54980 cell including packing. Thus a 240 miles SR+ could give 330 miles if the pack is simply replaced with 54980 cells without increasing pack size. But I am sure there is more to it because a larger cell allows simpler pack electronics and construction and therefore makes cell to pack feasible. A larger cell may also be more energy dense than the smaller cell due to increase in active area and materials.
Basically without improving chemistry, Tesla dramatically improved pack level energy density by simply changing the cell and pack construction. This pack is not only energy dense but also allows faster charging. There has always been a fundamental tradeoff between faster charging and energy density. Bigger cells allow longer range but not faster charging due to internal resistance but Tesla seems to have broken this limit or at least pushed this limit far out enough to not matter anymore for practical purposes.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm not sure what gave you that impression. I said I sold puts, which I usually do weekly based on my own ideas about the price movement, and it just happened that on that week the stock was ending very near the strike, so I was paying a little more attention to the price and noticed that on Friday people were predicting a close which ended up being a bit off.

I'm certainly not trying to say that people haven't at times made predictions of the stock price that ended up being accurate. What I'm saying is that it in actuality happens less than people remember. And the timeframe of the prediction matters... was the prediction on the Friday itself? Or was it on Monday? Was there a consensus or did a bunch of people throw out numbers and one person happened to be right? That sort of thing.

Understood...I think they are basing their price targets and predictions on the weekly options that are expiring.

 

[dww12]

Yes.

Kato doesn't have anywhere NEAR the capacity to supply Y.

They do for S/X Plaid certainly, maybe all S/X.

Plus the whole panasonic deal for 3 more years of (somewhat improved) 2170 cells.



Because you don't immediately build GIANT production lines of an experimental product.

Kato is to do it small scale (relatively) and work out the kinks.

Then you put it in your expensive (even more expensive than most expensive today in plaids case) product to get some nice profit out of your initial investment.... and THEN you build the "big" lines for your mass production cars once you've figured out the gotchas from the small scale production line.





That gives Tesla time to build "big" RRs lines at GF-N (or Giga Austin eventually I imagine) to supply CT.

(it's possible Kato could supply Semi initially, especially if only Plaid S/X get it, but that's details we'll maybe find out next week)

Is the Panasonic deal enough extra for Y in Texas? Panasonic 2170s at 35gwh going to 54gwh for 3 and Y does not get you to Y having enough batteries for selling more than S, X and 3 combined from Panasonic alone. And what batteries would you make in Berlin, 2170s or the new Roadrunner?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Amazon invests in battery recycling firm started by former Tesla executive — CNBC

 

[Dancing Lemur]

perhaps even working cars with them should be enough for Wall Street to understand.

At least one “In Motion”.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Ford's making its electric F-150 a serious work truck in bid to set it apart from Tesla and GM pickups

“Ford plans to differentiate its upcoming electric F-150 from Tesla by retaining the vehicle’s focus on work rather than recreation”. Good luck with that

In related news : Ford changes its name to FUD.