Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

Faster charging is a big deal. One of the major complaints/concerns people have about EVs is that they take too long to charge. If that hurdle can be broken down, that would unleash a lot of demand.

While I agree that faster charging is perceived as a big deal, I don't believe it actually is one. Not for the owner anyway. What an owner needs is charge availability not charging speed.

Charging Speed
When I get asked about my car one of the inevitable questions is "what about charging" and I patiently try to explain that they are looking at it all wrong. Even the V2 chargers are fast enough -- or a tad too fast at times -- because I'd like to get an actual break when I stop. Its never been long enough to go into a restaurant and eat a meal -- I have to get up early and move the car to avoid charges.

Where faster charging makes a difference is in throughput: a ten stall charger that takes thirty minutes to go from 20% to 80% can handle 20 cars an hour, but drop that down to five minutes and it can handle 120 cars an hour. Even in California V2 chargers would be largely sufficient if there were enough of them. But the foot print gets quite large. V3 helps with that, but fundamentally the advantage is accrued to Tesla, not the driver, who now doesn't have enough time to even use the bathroom before having to move the car and necessitating him/her staying with the car. Those few minutes aren't even enough time to get in a game.

Charging Availability
For an owner what is far more important than charge time is having charging where the car is parked. This is mostly home, followed by work and, more distantly, by destination. If I did not have home charging then it would not be anywhere near as reasonable to drive an EV. As I try to explain to folks, it doesn't really matter if takes five hours or five minutes if it is happening overnight or over a work shift.

It does need to be fast enough, and if you are subject to frigid conditions then the trickle charger doesn't cut it. Which is why Jan/Feb 2019 I had to go to a super charger: the trickle charger couldn't keep up with depletion in the arctic conditions. Once I finally got the home charger installed those problems went away. I used to charge once every week or two thinking I needed to let the battery get some work (e.g., running from 60% to 40%) but with scheduled charging I just plug it in each night and have 80% charge in the morning -- which is also my departure charge if I'm going on a trip because, realistically, I can't get enough range to skip a super charger, would be stopping periodically anyway, and the charge will be faster (and thus cheaper) when depleted to a lower soc.

Perception versus Practice
So while I get that charging speed is perceived as a big deal, with greater EV penetration more people will be learning from others that in practice it isn't actually a problem (at least for Tesla with super chargers). Instead, they will be concerned with having a home charger, or whether or not the apartment complex has chargers. Overnight charging is the practical issue.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Some additional details on the Credit Suisse upgrade to a $400 price target:

View attachment 589130

As @Mo City will point out their $400 price target "doesn't actually exist", just like Ark's $7,000 price target "doesn't exist". They both do the same thing, come up with a number of scenarios, apply a probability for each, and then calculate a combined price.

Their Uber Bull model is our "base" scenario for the average TMC'er here lol

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla has installed batteries at ~60 Electrify America charging stations, more are coming - Electrek

VW paying for powerpacks. A lot of them. What TMC knew about 3 weeks ago.

I would love to have this labeled as magic accounting like emissions credit since you know, it's not a car sale.

GJ: "If they didnt have regulatory credits and revenue from EA charging stations, they'd be at a loss again for the last 5 qtrs...look at Europe...China GF isn't producing and how can their CapX not rise?"

Kinda miss that guy....

 

[jhm]

Am I alone in thinking we're going to tank after battery day, no matter how good it is? I then expect a rebound much higher after a week or so once the implications properly sink in with the wider investing community.

You are not alone. I was raising this issue be asking whether 9/22 or 9/23 would be the better day to buy Tesla. My experience with Tesla suggest that the day after will be the better buy.

Historically, the share price declines the day after an unveiling. But even if the price does not decline, the price may not fully reflect the positive value of the information just released. That is, with positive news, the public knows that Tesla is worth more than they knew it was worth the day before. So the price should go up commensurate with the increase in known value. If the price rises only a little bit or is neutral, it is still a good buy.

But more obviously, if you know Tesla is more valuable, while the market takes the stock price down notch, you know it is strong buy.

I would also point out a bear tactic called "news nullification." Shorts work very hard to control the narrative on this stock. When positive news comes out, they are strongly motivated to try spin it from a positive to a negative. They also know that reporters always make reference to "market reaction" when news comes out. And of course other market participants look at price movements as indication of whether the "market" thinks the news is positive or negative. Thus, there is an enormous incentives for bears to attack the price aggressively whenever positive news comes out. If they can engineer a "negative market response," they stand a very good chance of flipping narrative to negative.

So I believe it is good for bulls to be prepared to buy on the day after an unveiling. This can defend against news nullification. And if that defense is insufficient, one at least benefits from buying the stock at a discount thanks to a successful bear attack. Whether you want to "buy the rumor" (before the unveiling) is up to you, but when bears are "selling the news" (after the unveiling), its good to have some dry powder.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Am I alone in thinking we're going to tank after battery day, no matter how good it is? I then expect a rebound much higher after a week or so once the implications properly sink in with the wider investing community.

Depends on how much SP ratchets up before Tuesday. If we stay around this zone, I think we're flat after Battery Day because inclusion is still looming and there's not much desire to sell and take profits yet. If we're at $500 on Tues, I could see a fat dip back to $400 and howls of "manipulation".

Either way I still believe inclusion brings us to ATH+15%.

 

[jerry33]

Never fails..UI claims go down...Market goes down. UI claims go up...Market goes parabolic.

Of course. Wall Street believes unemployment equals profits. Regardless of how poor company fundamentals are, they can always boost the stock price by letting a few thousand people go.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Am I alone in thinking we're going to tank after battery day, no matter how good it is? I then expect a rebound much higher after a week or so once the implications properly sink in with the wider investing community.

Stock could go up or down.......but I do think a lot of people are using the sell off action around Autonomy Day as a reference when in reality, everything about it is totally different.

- Autonomy Day happened in late April after a quarter where Tesla had numerous difficulties in overseas logistics and price drops. The overall sentiment was exponentially more negative than it is today. There was no other near term catalyst like next quarter's P/D numbers to provide a rally in the stock

- Battery Day will be happening 8 trading days before Q3 P/D numbers are out....a quarter which is expected, even by Wall St, to be a blowout

- Battery day will give information with a much clearer timeframe and clear information on how it will effect Tesla growth. Autonomy was impressive, but vague

- Annual shareholders meeting is same day as Battery Day where material information on this quarter and Tesla's full year guidance updates could be given. Along with other material information. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon slips up and vaguely suggests what they're hoping to produce in 2021

- Cash raise already happened. No threat/worry of additional dilution from what is shown on Battery Day

 

[Bet TSLA]

While I agree that faster charging is perceived as a big deal, I don't believe it actually is one. Not for the owner anyway. What an owner needs is charge availability not charging speed.

On road trips faster charging is a big deal. Especially if the added charging time means you can get to grandma's house in one day of driving in an ICE vehicle and in an EV it takes two. Even more so if there are kids traveling too.

And, as you say, availability and reliability.

 

[jhm]

Tesla has installed batteries at ~60 Electrify America charging stations, more are coming - Electrek

VW paying for powerpacks. A lot of them. What TMC knew about 3 weeks ago.

I would love to have this labeled as magic accounting like emissions credit since you know, it's not a car sale.

Maybe VW is buying up Powerpacks so Tesla will have fewer batteries for cars. 4D chess move.

 

[mejojo]

While I agree that faster charging is perceived as a big deal, I don't believe it actually is one. Not for the owner anyway. What an owner needs is charge availability not charging speed.

Perception versus Practice
So while I get that charging speed is perceived as a big deal, with greater EV penetration more people will be learning from others that in practice it isn't actually a problem (at least for Tesla with super chargers). Instead, they will be concerned with having a home charger, or whether or not the apartment complex has chargers. Overnight charging is the practical issue.

Perhaps you are referring charging speed over a certain rate...like it doesn't matter that much if you can get 150kW vs 250Kw, but I can tell you, as an 85D owner whose supercharging rate has been capped, it really matters a lot when your charging goes to 56Kw within 10 minutes at SOC still < 40%, then down to 30kW at < 75%. Excruciating.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

You are not alone. I was raising this issue be asking whether 9/22 or 9/23 would be the better day to buy Tesla. My experience with Tesla suggest that the day after will be the better buy.

Historically, the share price declines the day after an unveiling. But even if the price does not decline, the price may not fully reflect the positive value of the information just released. That is, with positive news, the public knows that Tesla is worth more than they knew it was worth the day before. So the price should go up commensurate with the increase in known value. If the price rises only a little bit or is neutral, it is still a good buy.

But more obviously, if you know Tesla is more valuable, while the market takes the stock price down notch, you know it is strong buy.

I would also point out a bear tactic called "news nullification." Shorts work very hard to control the narrative on this stock. When positive news comes out, they are strongly motivated to try spin it from a positive to a negative. They also know that reporters always make reference to "market reaction" when news comes out. And of course other market participants look at price movements as indication of whether the "market" thinks the news is positive or negative. Thus, there is an enormous incentives for bears to attack the price aggressively whenever positive news comes out. If they can engineer a "negative market response," they stand a very good chance of flipping narrative to negative.

So I believe it is good for bulls to be prepared to buy on the day after an unveiling. This can defend against news nullification. And if that defense is insufficient, one at least benefits from buying the stock at a discount thanks to a successful bear attack. Whether you want to "buy the rumor" (before the unveiling) is up to you, but when bears are "selling the news" (after the unveiling), its good to have some dry powder.

I think today was your day to buy. Regardless of a sell-the-news event, it may not hit $408 next week. I used 80% of my dry powder this morning.

But I agree it’s hard to envision a scenario where it doesn’t sell off after. I hope not, but if there aren’t immediate benefits that are easy to understand, a sharp rise is hard to imagine.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

While I agree that faster charging is perceived as a big deal, I don't believe it actually is one

I agree, but perception is reality to people that don't own an EV. I personally don't think it is a problem, but I wouldn't mind faster charging times. I hear it from people all the time about why they don't want a Tesla ("takes too long to charge", "not practical for a road trip", etc). Also read that a lot. Whether we perceive it as true or not, it is holding back EV adoption.

 

[bpjod]

On road trips faster charging is a big deal. Especially if the added charging time means you can get to grandma's house in one day of driving in an ICE vehicle and in an EV it takes two. Even more so if there are kids traveling too.

And, as you say, availability and reliability.

So grandma lives 960 miles away and while driving you average 60 mph. You stop to charge for 20 minutes every 200 miles, that's 80 minutes of charging (i.e. at 200, 400, 600 and 800 miles into the trip; 4 charging breaks). Total drive + charging time = 17h20m. If the charging time is reduced to 5 minutes you'll save one hour on the trip (4 stops x 15 minutes). Now you're down to 16h20m. But that also means you'll have to add in some time for bathroom breaks and meals whereas before you did this while the car was charging so you'll likely not even save one hour. So for an extremely long day driving, you'll save one hour at best. Is that really the difference between a one day and two day trip?

 

[CLK350]

Am I alone in finding myself continually multiplying all the price movements by 5? It's taking me a long time to get used to these post split numbers and even longer to these movements when you multiply them by 5.

Someone already mentioned before (too lazy to go back) - just divide by 2 and add a Zero

 

[Drumheller]

Does anyone have some long term projections on share price?

Estimated end of 2021, end of 2022, etc based on tesla's current road map? I haven't found many that try to estimate including energy, storage, and solar. ARK is helpful. I'm also curious to hear from members here.

Thanks!

 

[jhm]

I think today was your day to buy. Regardless of a sell-the-news event, it may not hit $408 next week. I used 80% of my dry powder this morning.

But I agree it’s hard to envision a scenario where it doesn’t sell off after. I hope not, but if there aren’t immediate benefits that are easy to understand, a sharp rise is hard to imagine.

$408 is an awesome price! Opportunistic buying is the way to go.

 

[mikevbf]

Their Uber Bull model is our "base" scenario for the average TMC'er here lol

Rob Maurer does a nice job talking about this in his video last night starting at about 8:55, but the whole video is worth watching:

 

[LTC_RRR]

In related news : Ford changes its name to FUD.

Interesting: $700M seems to be the magic CAPEX number for legacy entry into electric pickups!

 

[DurandalAI]

While I agree that faster charging is perceived as a big deal, I don't believe it actually is one. Not for the owner anyway. What an owner needs is charge availability not charging speed.

Charging Speed
When I get asked about my car one of the inevitable questions is "what about charging" and I patiently try to explain that they are looking at it all wrong. Even the V2 chargers are fast enough -- or a tad too fast at times -- because I'd like to get an actual break when I stop. Its never been long enough to go into a restaurant and eat a meal -- I have to get up early and move the car to avoid charges.

Where faster charging makes a difference is in throughput: a ten stall charger that takes thirty minutes to go from 20% to 80% can handle 20 cars an hour, but drop that down to five minutes and it can handle 120 cars an hour. Even in California V2 chargers would be largely sufficient if there were enough of them. But the foot print gets quite large. V3 helps with that, but fundamentally the advantage is accrued to Tesla, not the driver, who now doesn't have enough time to even use the bathroom before having to move the car and necessitating him/her staying with the car. Those few minutes aren't even enough time to get in a game.

I completely agree. I would like for "lower priority" chargers that do say 75kW max charging with a longer threshold before idle charges apply. (Idle for 30min before charging, as an example.) If I need a quicker charge, I can go to the v3 charger. Either that or the ability to set a maximum charge rate that's lower if a low percentage of chargers are being used.

 

[Nocturnal]

The taller Tesla cells will also provide a middle ground between a single pack and the doubled up pack that has been proposed previously for the Roadster.

Newb question....what time is Battery day at?
I have to travel on the 22nd....so I may need to pull over at some point.

Just turn on autopilot!