Bet TSLA
Active Member
Still, phones are not relevant. See https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1305570412349321216.
Smartwatches & phones are yesterday’s technology, Neuralinks are the future.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Smartwatches & phones are yesterday’s technology, Neuralinks are the future.
I think you are missing the point. Obviously SF will be using transactional databases under the covers, and it could be Oracle or Ingress or Mongo or Cloud native databases - it just doesn't matter. It provides Datawarehousing capabilities to the end user at a fraction of the cost compared to on-prem installations using those databases.
My reference to SF was only tangential to highlight that your velocity and agility to bring in new products and features to your customers is greatly enhanced if you are in the cloud - no different from an EV drivetrain that is software driven, that can get new OTA updates compared to an ICE drive train that has to wait for the next model year.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
AFAIK from posts from folks with actual access to see what the computers are actually doing, this guy is talking complete nonsense and almost nothing works like he seems to think it does.
For example last I knew from Greentheonly, the B node wasn't running anything at all until almost the end of 2019, and since then has just run an exact, fallback, copy of node A in case of failure (so that B can instantly take over instead of waiting 5 minutes for A to reboot) so his speculation of it running some secret "beta" copy to compare notes is complete fabrication.
He also doesn't seem to have even a basic grasp on technology in several places of the article for example where he says:
That's a word salad of nonsense that makes it clear he's using words he doesn't understand. 3 computers voting on a decision isn't redundancy. And redundancy is exactly why you'd bother with total hardware duplication.
It's the same reason there's 2 independent physical radar wire runs to the computers on the later HW- in case one fails.
There are 3 closely related problems:-
- Building, selling and supporting completive EVs. (avoiding paying for regulatory credits)
- Making a reasonable margin on EVs.. while doing 1. above.
- Having sufficient Battery Pack volumes to get to scale which makes 1. & 2. above easier.
Compare that to Shanghai phase 1... the level of ambition has stepped up as Battery Pack supply is a solved problem....
Now compare some legacy OEMs to Tesla, if their ambition is limited to avoiding paying regulatory credits, and avoiding a risk all in bet on EVs,,,, they have a conservative, modest, low volume plan, and for them Battery Pack supply is far from a solved problem...
Already they are making some compromises and adjusting their plans as they can't get cells and packs in the volumes they ideally would like. Suppliers are probably telling them better prices are possible with firm orders for higher volumes, but to date their EVs don't always sell well and the dealerships are often reluctant to sell them...
Legacy OEMs will find it easer to make a margin in EVs, if they go "all in" and fully commit to volume production.
Soon there will be no choice as ICE will become increasingly hard to sell.
As you say competing with Tesla on cost, range, performance and software will be daunting.. competing with Tesla on production volumes, speed of ramp, and innovation close to impossible.
In some ways Battery Day looks like the end product of 5-10 years hard work, Tesla has a comprehensive plan for all aspects including scaling production volumes, Tesla will have plenty of headroom to make good margins and slowly cut prices.
If I had sum up my expectations for Battery Day up in one word, that word is "Comprehensive".
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
dc_h
Active Member
Could be a great thread. Love to discuss neuralink timing and implications. I hope it’s a few years out. Not ready to download or upload into the net yet.
dhrivnak
Active Member
And I have been trying to buy a PowerWall for 9 months now and was told Q2 of 2021 at the earliest. They need to deliver product to remain viable.
You make this sound bad? This is incredibly bullish information IMO
Love it. I think it makes sense to offer this option even in the long term especially when the model 2 is in production.
BTW, how does EAP impact resale(Carvana etc)or trade in value? I want to replace my model 3 with a model Y soon. I will not be using any of the EAP features very much at all so this would be more to explore the features to get a better understanding of the future of autonomy as an investor.
Anybody have thoughts?
oh those end of quarter pushes. I guess as long as they are a public company they have to keep the short term quarter balance sheets looking good. EAP and FSD of course hugely bolster margins.
Sounds to me like EAP/FSD package is about to go up in price from $8,000 to $9,000
I think this move has more to do with giving people a chance at the EAP features without FSD before raising the price on the total package and also, before subscription model gets implemented.
This all lines up pretty well with the rewrite coming out in the next couple of months, hopefully with more FSD features
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Without further context or information it's neither bullish nor bearish (and could potentially be both to different aspects of the business)
Powerwall availability had been garbage for at least a couple of years now because the energy business was being cell-starved by the car business.
It'd bad if the company is unable to fill, and in the long run loses, orders from its energy business due to lack of cells.
It's good that vehicle demand remains high enough to be eating cell supply.
it's bad if the company is after a couple years of this problem continually unable to scale production to resolve it (in fact the backlog has gotten worse)
it's good if the backlog has gotten worse because they're soon to switch to new cell production that solves the scaling problem.
I suspect we'll have a better idea of the details Tuesday afternoon though
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Mid-December at best according to Elon, which is 50% further out than that. If everything goes right. What do you think the chance of that is?
Since his last "6-10 weeks" four weeks before it became still 6-10 weeks but with some extra information about some alpha testers getting it earlier. That's what we in the business call a day for day slip. Elon's record with predicting the release of autopilot software is dismal, and it doesn't seem to be getting better. Maybe March? Yeah, I find that if I keep my expectations in this area really, really low that I don't get too disappointed.
Nice position to be in to have those sw end-of-qtr levers to pull (ka ching).
Other OEMs can only wish.
Only problem is, the penalties for selling ice negates their profits (margins) like selling cocaine (drug lord) only to get caught sent to jail, and have your fortune taken away by the authorities.
Every December is when Tesla releases the biggest software update. The chances are decently high as I think some heads will roll if they can't get this done, or we see some kind of version of the rewrite this December. Also they filed to expect almost all of FSD to be recognized this year in the q4 19 10k guide(or was it q1?).
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Have often thought about FSD / timelines. When I ordered my S years ago, I didn't buy FSD, I just bought EAP, because I thought that there was a limited likelihood of imminent delivery. Then the FSD sale hit a year or 2 ago. It was too good to pass up, and enough time had passed that I thought that it was worth it because we were so much closer to the eventual FSD launch.
Glad I did it - no regrets. Even added it to my CT reservation.
I think when FSD launches it will be an order of magnitude change in perception (particularly when people start posting youtube vids with properly working smart summon etc.
One of Elon's FSD timelines will turnout to be correct. Wonder if it will be the next one.
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