Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

Have thought about this over the last couple of days.

What if the $25K Tesla is just a new version of the Model 3?

2022 Model 3 starts at $25K
Fabric seats
Smaller wheels
300M range
New battery cells
New construction using the castings like Model & is
Only emergency safety features. Autopilot and others can be purchased later.

then other versions fall in line with the pricing of the current version of the Model 3 has. May have upgrades like longer range, new battery tech, same new construction, etc.

The $25K Tesla needs to be smaller, because... Europe.

 

[Tim S]

SEC.gov | SEC Charges BMW for Disclosing Inaccurate and Misleading Retail Sales Information to Bond Investors

SEC Charges BMW for Disclosing Inaccurate and Misleading Retail Sales Information to Bond Investors

BMW AG will pay $18 million to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission claims that the Germany automaker and two of its U.S. subsidiaries disclosed inaccurate and misleading information about the company’s retail sales volume while raising approximately $18 billion in corporate bond offerings.The company inflated reported retail sales in the U.S. from 2015 to 2019, which helped close the gap between its actual retail sales volume and internal targets, the SEC said in a statement Thursday.

----

ssdd

So that's a .01% fine? That'll teach em not to try that again. Glad the SEC is looking out for us.

 

[Mike Ambler]

Trading closed...so here's my little feel good moment as, unless a miracle happens, this will be my last buy!

[email protected] I win today?

...but then I got depressed with the numbers being bandied about to hit retirement. Emotionally, it's easier to deal with the daily 10% swings.

 

[OrthoSurg]

2nd straight day ark is buying tsla

 

[agastya]

ARK, staying true to form - BTFD

 

[JustSaying]

Anything is possible. Black Swan events like Musk's death can send the shares down sub 100s overnight.

However if you are worried that current sp is not supported and it's some kind of bubble, I would say not to worry too much as most analyst has doubled their price targets as of late to support the sp. So it wouldn't just fall down to 70 bucks on no news or anything.

Agreed God forbid anything should happen to Elon , a disaster but he seems to have built a great team of talent around him that will carry out his mission.
ONE of my biggest mistakes was selling "Walt Disney Productions" in late 1966 when Walt died.

 

[gabeincal]

ARK, staying true to form - BTFD
View attachment 591907

How are you so fast?! Time to delete my duplicate post...

 

[Opus BC fan]

OT:
After 8 years, I will be going plaid...

 

[Sudre]

I've shared this 16 minute Battery Day video with my financial advisor and selected others who want to better understand Tesla and realize the vast majority of media coverage has their own agenda.

There was a lot packed into this presentation. Every time I watch it I try to pull out points to get an understanding. Here are my current thoughts. Please feel free to fill in what I have wrong or missed.

Think about the 1st part about the larger cell with a 16% increase in range, "This is not just a concept or a rendering. We are starting to ramp up manufacturing of these cells at our pilot 10Gwh facility......". That means by the time GigaBerlin opens these cell should be ready to go with the casting and battery all in one design. That is not including any of the other stuff they talked about. 14% reduction in cost ramping up now.

Dry electrode. This is not needed for ranged increases. All this does is reduce the cost, drastically reduces the factory footprint and spits out cells faster. This is what Elon cautioned is still having some issues. This does not effect range or supercharging... or at least not that I see in this video. This is icing in the cake for existing vehicles.

Assembly line is again reducing speed and cost. Nothing with range or charging. Can be done now.

Formation is only reducing factory footprint and upfront investment. It can be done now. No change in range or charging.

Three piece battery/car frame adds 14% range increase.

Basically they can make a cheaper battery now (not the cheapest) without the dry coating process which will give them the batteries they need for the current lineup with a 30% range increase (or reduction in the number of cells). 21% decrease in $/KWH. 15% reduction in investment. I believe the dry process is only needed to make the $25K car (along with anode/cathode improvements. Without the dry coating process they will end up with a larger battery cell factory and higher cell prices but they still get saving from all the other bits when assembling the battery.

They will continue to use their suppliers and I don't see why they would not want the same cheap cells from their suppliers since they can have them sign NDAs. ALTHO I imagine the suppliers will supply the cells for storage and the tabless design is not needed for storage. Space and heat are not a worry with storage.

That's about the first half of this video. The last half of the video is what is in development IMO. (Anode, Cathode, lithium and other mineral acquisition.) This makes me believe they feel confident about the dry coating process coming in about a year. If they get it right by the time GigaBerlin and Texas are ready for it things will work out well. The last half then goes into the 3 year portion that makes way for the $25K car.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Additional considerations..

• Scaling incrementally as needed in 10 GWh increments.
• Quick ROI with savings on cells, packs and cars..

So the initial funding is just needed to kick it off, afterwards it is largely self funding.

So the real question is, how quickly does a 10 GWh line recoup the initial investment?

After that phase it is helping to fund additional lines.

I agree. That is the quintessential "Musk Method" for how to eat an elephant.

Here's the battery production estimate I created back in July 2019: (search also for "G-Cube"). How'd I do, wot?

Cheers!

Okay I'll give it a shot...

The normal rollout interval has been 2-3 yrs from 'Reveal' to Mass Production, so perhaps 2021-22 for Tesla Pickup in quantity? It'll certainly depend on bty cell capacity and its likely lower priority than Semi.

I still hold the opinion that the rumoured new “giant, giant, giant machine that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and is... gigantic" is to build battery cells, modules, and packs. Not for die cast model Y bodies (which is foolish btw, Elon already said they will replace a 70-part rear-subframe assembly with 4 parts in the Y, then later with a single cast part when the larger casting machine becomes available. This casting machine DOES NOT replace the body stamping presses, sheesh. /rant).

So let's spec up that (Giant)^3 machine (I'll call it the 'G-Cube') for its output, first for N. America: (per Elon's statements on expected long-term steady-state demand)

• 750K/yr Model 3+Y @ 67 KWh => 50 GWh/yr (2021)
  
• 100K/yr Semi @ 1MWh => 100 GWh/yr (2023)
  
• 500K/yr Pickup @ 300 KWh => 150 GWh/yr (2024)

So that's a requirement for 300 GWh/yr within 5 years for the first N. America G-Cube (I'm going to lump storage requirements together separately since they have a different rampup curve, and their own steady-state demand).

That's roughly 10x the current cell capacity at GF1. A compounded annual growth rate that yields 10x increase over 5 years is 59% CAGR. That's actually pretty close to Tesla's historical auto production growth rate over the past 6 years, so I call it physically possible to do. Now let's build out a growth table for the next 5 years: (numbers listed are predicted production run-rates achieved by the end of the listed year; assuming* 29.5 GW/yr run rate by end of 2019, up from 28 GWh/yr by 2019.5)

Year GWh
2019 29.5*
2020 47
2021 75
2022 119
2023 189
2024 300​

Now let's get on with specing out the G-Cube:

• each G-Cube must be able to produce 25GW/yr in finished product
• Tesla must be able to build 1 G-Cube/yr in 2020-21
• Tesla must be able to build 2 G-Cubes/yr in 2022-23
• Tesla must be able to build 4 G-Cubes in 2024-25

Each G-Cube must produce cash flow which will pay for another G-Cube after 2 yrs operation. Technically that's a CAGR of only 41% but hey this is an estimate (the main point is that this is the exponential part of Elon's vision).

For the first G-cube, let's say consumer facing product is $100/KWh at the pack level (long held as the enabling goal for Tesla's production aspirations). That's $5B in product over 2 years from each G-cube. Traditionally, the cost of raw materials for cells has been ~60% of the finished product, so let's say there's $2B left over (notice how I'm skipping over the part about robotics and cost of labor?)

So as long as Tesla can spec, build, and equip its first G-Cube for $2B, it pays for itself after 2 years which allows them to build another G-Cube out of FCF (NO LOANS).

Then, as production efficiency increase (that's the reason you stay 'modular' so you can swap out old designs) the exponential increases. After a further 2 years running those 2 G-Cubes, you can afford 2 more G-Cubes, etc etc... and I haven't even modeled depreciation.

Can they do it? Sure. China has demonstrated they're all in for the tech, and especially for the financing (ie: recourse local debt in Shanghai). Then FCA will pay for the first G-cube in Europe with its $2B/2yr CO2 offsets to Tesla. These may actually INCREASE as other failed manufacturors join the FCA emissions pool after 2021. I suspect the production ramp for Europe will be approx like this:

Year GWh
2022 25
2024 50
2026 100
2028 200
2030 400​

So you see that gets Tesla to a world-wide runrate of 1 TWh/yr for vehicle packs sometime between 2025-2030 (depending on precisely when the first EU GF4 w.G-cube comes online).

In all of this, remember, storage is EXTRA (I'm calling for 2+ TWh/yr production when including Tesla grid+storage products). As a bonus, here's a rough steady of the state product demand I see for both China and the EU (emphasis on smaller** city cars; no pickups at all; numbers approximate)

• 750K/yr Model 3+Y @ 67 KWh => 50 GWh/yr
  
• 200K/yr Semi/Bus/Delivery @ 500KWh => 100 GWh/yr
  
• 1.5M/yr Model 2 @ 27 KWh => 150 GWh/yr (2024)
• Total: 300 GWh/yr

So given a requirement for 300 GWh/yr each in China+EU, and 400 GWh in N. America, that's a 1.2 TWh/yr requirement for the planned Tesla vehicles over the next 10 years.

**Recall Elon spoke about a smaller $25K Tesla during the 2018 AGM (which many commenters now refer to as the 'Model 2'), and naturally it will have much larger sales volumes in the older congested cities of Europe and large cities of Asia).

Add it all up, and that's 6.5M Tesla Vehicles per year production reached sometime between 2025-2030 (again depending on the SELF-FUNDING rampup). Best part? That's roughly $280B in annual revenue just from the Tesla Automotive division. Even if TSLA continues to trade at just 2x earnings, that puts TSLA at $3,200/share within 10 yrs.

And remember, 'Storage is extra'. So is FSD it seems, but that 10 year horizon is nearly @neroden scale time for FSD so...

That's just the numbers from currently planned/rumoured products. I personally plan to be taking Sunday rides on a Tesla bicycle that weighs 20 kg with a hubless SRPM motor and a 2 KWh fast-charging bty w. 10-yr svc-life by 2030.

Cheers!

P.S. So yeah, 15X TSLA upside yada-yada, but I will be selling all my shares at the Opening today, because Capt Sully tweeted that I should be 'concerned' about Autopilot.
/S

 

[Tyler34]

Here's my simple model for Tesla's Battery Master Plan v.3

• The pilot plant is a proof-of-function prototype with a single line @ 10GWh/yr
  
• Tesla needs to build 9 additional Bty lines per year, each with 10GWh/yr capacity
• This gets us to 100GWh capacity in 2022, and ~3,000 by about 2029
• Note: if 3rd parties are unwilling/unable Tesla can build out 20 TWh/yr in 12 yrs

View attachment 591857

Now we get to the unstated consequence of Battery Day: Tesla MUST build a tertiary layer of production to build the machines that equip the Bty Cell factories.

Tesla MUST add 9 new such Bty lines (per chart above) to achieve the arithmetic growth required by their stated goals.

It might be practical to build a single such Meta-Factory, but given the scale required (potentially ~180 lines over 12 years), I think its more practical to build THREE such Meta-Factories (one each in China, Germany, and USA).

Each of these MTBTMs (Machines-that-build-the-Machine) would each have to be sized to produce 60 bty lines over 12 years, or about 5 each per year.

Think of these MTBTMs as Grohmann clones, but specialized for battery cells.

Does anybody know where (and from whom) Coca-cola Bottlers buy there production equipment? That's the scale of manufacturing we are discussing right now.

Cheers!

Didn't they say on battery day that each new line could do 7x or 20GWh. Cutting the number of lines needed in half probably eliminates the need to build all 3 meta factories.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

From the twitter verse...applies to $TSLA also of course, i am sure that 23 # is going to be wayyyyyy higher for $TSLA:

What they tell you: If you invested $100 in Apple's IPO and and held shares until today, that investment would be worth about $100,000.

What they don't tell you: If you invested $100 in Apple's IPO and held shares until today, you would've endured 23 declines of 20% or more.

 

[Xd85]

Here's my simple model for Tesla's Battery Master Plan v.3

• The pilot plant is a proof-of-function prototype with a single line @ 10GWh/yr
  
• Tesla needs to build 9 additional Bty lines per year, each with 10GWh/yr capacity
• This gets us to 100GWh capacity in 2022, and ~3,000 by about 2029
• Note: if 3rd parties are unwilling/unable Tesla can build out 20 TWh/yr in 12 yrs

View attachment 591857

Now we get to the unstated consequence of Battery Day: Tesla MUST build a tertiary layer of production to build the machines that equip the Bty Cell factories.

Tesla MUST add 9 new such Bty lines (per chart above) to achieve the arithmetic growth required by their stated goals.

It might be practical to build a single such Meta-Factory, but given the scale required (potentially ~180 lines over 12 years), I think its more practical to build THREE such Meta-Factories (one each in China, Germany, and USA).

Each of these MTBTMs (Machines-that-build-the-Machine) would each have to be sized to produce 60 bty lines over 12 years, or about 5 each per year.

Think of these MTBTMs as Grohmann clones, but specialized for battery cells.

Does anybody know where (and from whom) Coca-cola Bottlers buy there production equipment? That's the scale of manufacturing we are discussing right now.

Cheers!

how do you figure 3000Gwh/year if capacity is increasing at 90Gwh/year with 9 lines? I read it as 3250 cumulative produced at 2029, not a per year rate.

 

[ninpb]

Agreed God forbid anything should happen to Elon , a disaster but he seems to have built a great team of talent around him that will carry out his mission.
ONE of my biggest mistakes was selling "Walt Disney Productions" in late 1966 when Walt died.

I bet my friend a beer that appl would be up 5 years after Jobs death. I probably wasted it on some light beer but it tasted good.

 

[RobStark]

Hence all heavily unionized companies such as GM can do is make gestures, say stuff and buy stakes in fraudulent companies such as Nikola.

GM didn't invest any money in Nikola nor buy anything from Nikola. GM was paid Nikola shares for engineering Nikola vehicles. GM will be paid cost plus a percentage in cash from Nikola for the actual vehicles.

In effect,Nikola is a North American dealership network for GM vehicles.

 

[Alphacrux]

California’s Ban on New Gas Cars Further Upends Auto Industry

Interesting quote from Morgan Stanley:

‘Morgan Stanley also predicted that by 2040 Volkswagen would be the leading electric-vehicle manufacturer, selling 11.2 million fully electric vehicles a year, followed by Toyota Motor Corp. with 6.5 million, Tesla with 4.9 million and General Motors Co. with 4.1 million.”

They don’t believe that Tesla is going to be at 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, never mind by 2040?

Edit: I can’t find a reference to when Elon stated that they wanted to make 20M vehicles a year, except for “eventually”. Surely “eventually” should mean by 2040?

Edit 2: 40% unit growth per year starting at 500K units in 2020 yields approx 20M units in 2031. Roughly a doubling every 2 years. Now what was Ark saying about Wright’s law?

 

[RobStark]

I strongly doubt this will be economically viable--especially for those manufacturers who are going to see their sales plummet (in particular the ones that rely on pickups). 1) Look at the issues Tesla has had with Freemont because it wasn't designed for EVs. 2) There is almost nothing in common between EVs and ICE. Not the frame, not the drive train. I guess tires, wheels, and window glass, steering wheel, and a few buttons are about it.

The construction techniques to make a ICE or BE glyder are the same even though the design is different.

You can use a Giga Press to make unibody ICE vehicles if you wanted.

The main problem with Fremont factory is that it was built in the late 1950's and Tesla had to adapt its new production line and methods to that factory.

It is always more efficient to build a new purpose built factory.

It is more efficient to build new full size ice trucks in a new factory than convert a factory making subcompact ICEv.

Tesla is radically redesigning the manufacturing process. IF Lucid went bankrupt I am sure Tesla would rather build a new factory at X cost than buy the Lucid BEV factory for .1X cost.

 

[traxila]

California’s Ban on New Gas Cars Further Upends Auto Industry

Interesting quote from Morgan Stanley:

‘Morgan Stanley also predicted that by 2040 Volkswagen would be the leading electric-vehicle manufacturer, selling 11.2 million fully electric vehicles a year, followed by Toyota Motor Corp. with 6.5 million, Tesla with 4.9 million and General Motors Co. with 4.1 million.”

They don’t believe that Tesla is going to be at 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, never mind by 2040?

This isn’t even laughable. It is just boring. Tiresome that we have to listen to morons.

My fault for not just shutting down and living in a closet somewhere....

 

[RobStark]

The bill to ban ICEv by 2030 in the California legislature ended up a few votes short because a few Democrats in the State legislature from blue collar districts protested "my constituents can't afford Teslas."

The Newsom executive order is symbolic because the CA Gov in 2035 can reverse the executive order.

But we all know 99% of new car vehicles will be BEV by then.

I thought Newsom did not sign the executive order on the hood of a Tesla to not be accused of homerism. That the move was to favor California made vehicles over vehicles made in the Midwest or South.

 

[Thekiwi]

The presentation was amazing, but could of used one final thing at the end:


"We are presenting: Model 3+

(A Model 3 in unique color rolls out on to stage.)

This Model 3+ may look the same, but inside it is powered by our new batteries we just presented.

These batteries cost x% less to build, will last y times as long and gets z more miles than the current Model 3.

This car will be shipping in 2022 and cost x less than current car.

It is the start of increasing all battery KPIs across the board by controlling every step of the design and manufacturing process, which is something no other company is able to do.

Fini


Stonks ^ !

There is a call from you from Mr. Osbourne on line 1.