Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Nice. So is this chart real-time or just a daily update?
View attachment 592174

As of close yesterday.

 

[humbaba]

Other news on battery tech: Daimler unveils electric bus with 441 kWh solid-state battery pack - Electrek



Interesting, I was thinking that solid state batteries where not ready for prime time yet. Does someone know any characteristics that would make it eligible for buses/trucks but not regular cars? Wonder where the cells come from.

If I recall correctly that news is misleading. The solid state is an option -- not standard -- with significant caveats, such as recharge time.

edit: from the press release

At the same time the eCitaro G is beginning a new chapter with innovative solid-state batteries to store energy. They will be optionally available as a second possible technology. Their huge bonus: solid-state batteries are characterised by high energy density and a particularly long service life. Chemically speaking these are lithium-polymer batteries. They are known as solid-state batteries because the usually liquid electrolyte is in solid form. Also raw materials such as cobalt, nickel and manganese are not used for this type of battery. Equipped with seven battery packs, the eCitaro G achieves a remarkable total capacity of 441 kWh and thus guarantees ranges typical of city bus operations.

As the use of solid-state batteries is extremely restricted for fast and thus intermediate charging, the battery technology covers other usage profiles than lithium-ion batteries (NMC). They, on the other hand, are ideal for fast charging whether during breaks between journeys at the depot or along the route. That is why Mercedes-Benz is pursuing a two-fold strategy and is offering the eCitaro G with both battery technologies as an option. Thus the new eCitaro G is a custom-made articulated bus which flexibly adapts itself to the various operational strategies of transport companies.

They are offering both NMC and solid state. The solidstate is better density, but restricted charging.

 

[hobbes]

If I recall correctly that news is misleading. The solid state is an option -- not standard -- with significant caveats, such as recharge time.

Thanks. At least seems to be old news with one German city ordering these buses as early as April 2019 according to this Benz press release:

Mercedes-Benz eCitaro: Record-breaking order for the eCitaro: Mercedes Benz to supply 56 electric urban buses to Wiesbaden | marsMediaSite

This is the current press release. There are in fact two versions, one with NMC and one solid state, but they don´t compare charge rate:

Profusion of exciting innovations from Mercedes-Benz Buses: new all-electric eCitaro G with solid-state batteries, new economical and versatile Intouro inter-city bus, new Sprinter City 75 minibus | marsMediaSite

EDIT: Much better article here: Mercedes-Benz Introduces Electric eCitaro G Articulated Bus

The "solid-state battery" (lithium-polymer) will be 441 kWh, which means slightly more (about 10% above the NMC). There is not many details about the cells, but from the previous reports we know that Mercedes-Benz was working with Bollore’s Blue Solution.

Bollore's Lithium Metal Polymer (LMP) (see info here) uses polymer electrolyte (instead of liquid electrolyte), but to operate they required a high temperature of 60-80°C (because of poor conductivity of solid polymer at room temperature). This type of batteries was used on a small-scale in EVs (Bluecars, Bluebuses or even energy storage) for about 10 years, but we doubt those are the batteries we were all waiting for when thinking about the superior solid-state battery technology.

TLDR: Nothing to see here, just a click-baity headline by electrek

 

[SOULPEDL]

One last thing to bear in mind is that there isn't just one market maker, there are a number, and they don't always agree on where Max Pain is for each of them.

This keeps getting better.... My next question was going to be "What's this person's name?" Lol.
So 1 MM person does multiple stocks or multiple MMs do TSLA and other stocks?
And they can't agree always where MP is? Isn't that strictly a math problem, or are they anticipate near future?
(FYI, I'm not fishing for manipulation here, just trying to understand MP, thanks everyone!!!)

 

[ninpb]

Doing my part for Q3.

View attachment 592182

GM, Ford, Toyota, etc:

This is 50% the reason for my TSLA conviction. It's that magic sauce, or just cocaine laced headrests in Teslas that make owners fanatics, giving extra money after driving off the lot or volunteer at end of quarter pushes.

I mean I thought 50k for a car was wild for me, then less than 6 months later I spend another 7500 for AP and FSD?!

 

[woodisgood]

This keeps getting better.... My next question was going to be "What's this person's name?" Lol.
So 1 MM person does multiple stocks or multiple MMs do TSLA and other stocks?
And they can't agree always where MP is? Isn't that strictly a math problem, or are they anticipate near future?
(FYI, I'm not fishing for manipulation here, just trying to understand MP, thanks everyone!!!)

MMs are banks. The usual names, which act as MMs for many/most stocks across the market (eg GS, MS, JPM, DB, CS..). Yes, the same entities that you see with analysts and price targets. etc. Then there will be other large entities that pick and choose the stocks they like to play with (eg Citadel, Softbank).

Each bank will have sold a different number of puts and calls at different strike prices. Therefore, come expiration day, each bank will have an exact profit/loss on those trades for any given stock price. Each bank will of course wish the stock price to be at the maximum profit given its unique set of trades, and each bank will have a different amount of ammo, risk tolerance, and desire to make that SP become reality.

The maxpain number we have access to is just an aggregate of all options activity. What matters is the maxpain number for the one or few MMs who have the greatest to gain or lose. That number is known only by those specific entities, just as a retail trader would know his/her own maxpain based on the puts and calls s/he sold.

 

[computerchuck]

GM, Ford, Toyota, etc:
View attachment 592185

I agree.

I find that your embedded picture and matching avatar extremely funny. I'm just weird that way.

 

[lafrisbee]

Thank you for not dismissing my points outright with Tesla pompom fluff. I'm a committed Tesla trader and thus look at Tesla the company more so than Tesla the car manufacturer. In fact, I spend on fair amount of time on other chat sites to emphasize that Tesla is more battery manufacturer than car company, but that's a different subject. See linked European EV sales . It simply wrong to suggest Tesla is alone in the EV space because its cars are so far ahead of everyone else. That's not even true in the US where EV buy in is comparatively low.

Record EV Sales In Europe

Like Musk has said, Tesla is a group of start ups, each trying to better existing products/markets. Energy storage is likely Tesla's soon to be main source of revenue, not car manufacturing. Furthermore, Tesla's energy storage and management capabilities has leaped a few buildings ahead of anyone else, but we are still far from replacing oil, gas and coal as main sources of energy, which is Musk's overarching goal, not car manufacturing!

Your data does not support your belief. Tesla is in fact dominating "the EV space". What you have failed to discriminate is the vehicle classes that tesla has. The economy class of EV's has yet to have a tesla representative. The "Small vehicle" class as well.
Just compare the tesla apples in the fruit market to the other apples.

 

[ZeApelido]

It's funny seeing the usual suspects complain about the CA mandate to ban new gas cars by 2035. As if anyone will be able to buy a new gas car in the US by then, or even want to.

There will be some stubborn holdouts who manage to buy them out of spite I suppose. Just like we see with LEDs vs incandescent bulbs.

On some regular forum with regular people, I predicted 50% new cars being EVs in the U.S by 2030. Huge outrage that I was crazy.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

2030....

https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN26G1E1

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yeah, I just watched that. I think there's more to the story. GF1 is reported to have cost about $6B in CapEx to date, and is producing just 36GWh (let's say for ease of estimate).

That's $167M/GWh/yr of production capacity. Ugh. Even now Pana adds just 3.5GWh/yr for $100M of CapEx, or ~$28M/GWh/yr capacity. Tesla's bty day slide stated they expect a 69% reduction in CapEx. Panasonic's latest line is already at an 83% reduction over the intial CapEx, so Tesla's slide can clearly not be referring to that comparison.

Cheers!

I've seen this calculation thrown around and it needs to be pointed out how flawed it is. The $6B for GF1 capex included everything. Panasonic's cell production lines only occupied section D, while pack assembly and motor construction go on in the other sections, so there's no way to know how much their "old" production lines cost to build (need to search their past 10-Q's to find that detail). All we know for certain is that "$100M for a 3.5GWh/yr cell line" is Panasonic's current costs.

Tesla's BD presentation showed $2T should be for 20TWh/yr of pack capacity, which comes out to $2B for 20GWh/yr (or $4B for 40GWh/yr of capacity). This lines up perfectly with what has been spent for GF1 so far.

In addition, the BD slide showed the 69% reduction to include a 34% reduction in the cost of a cell line (presumably Panasonic's cost):

 

[Tslynk67]

Model Y cars are eligible for the 2k performance upgrade now. Nice little bit of incremental revenue and profit there.

My man Chicken Genius doesn't get lots of love here. I like his channel a lot. He dips into TA a bit but is usually pretty accurate.

Worth a watch, IMO, informative and entertaining.

 

[Beltsbear]

This GM micro car overtakes Tesla Model 3 to become the most-selling EV in China

Seems like a fair comparison

Also Coke sold more cans of soda then Tesla sold Model 3 cars. It is 1/10 the price of a Tesla because it has 1/20'th the battery!

 

[Cape Coddess]

Model Y cars are eligible for the 2k performance upgrade now. Nice little bit of incremental revenue and profit there.

My man Chicken Genius doesn't get lots of love here. I like his channel a lot. He dips into TA a bit but is usually pretty accurate.

That was great!
"Donkeys will be donkeys forever" lol

 

[UkNorthampton]

Highly recommend this.
There are some especially good insights @13:58 with Vivas Kumar who used to work at Tesla.

A lot of disbelief on the video from people who seem to know their stuff.

I tend to believe the Tesla presentation purely on their ability to think creatively and invent and to look at every part of the whole chain.

 

[lafrisbee]

So the fact that SP is a bit high now against Max Pain, the MM for TSLA is selling their own stockpile of shares to bring it back to 400? But they can't do it at this moment bc buying is too strong. So MM is weak today against bigger forces? Cuz they blew it all on MMD attempts this morning, but it didn't pan out? (Speculating a relationship there.)

This is fascinating stuff, but everyone here probably knows it. Sorry if OT.

Now you are thinking like I have been doing so for months. And you are at the question I still have. And that is, "How much power does the MM's have? What kind of resources do they control? And that is too narrow a perspective.
They aren't just willy nilly buying and selling stock to get the SP to Maxpain at Friday's close. They look at the big picture. They understand the mind of the option buyer, they look at what news is going to come out before Friday. heck, one thing I've seen them do is to manipulate the price skyward to induce a fake run on the stock to get Bullish investors to buy the calls, and then turn around and drive the stock down on some non-event news that the Bearish investor is looking for to make money... but then at the end of the week they have the money and the stock to peg the SP right at MaxPain.
MM's even play the game of knowing that they've been spending a lot of resources over manipulating the stock so they know they will have to let it rise (or fall) for the next MaxPain. And having that knowledge is a very valuable asset. they can sell close puts for an attractive price and get more traders to buy in, and then they allow the pressure of the market they've been capping to go ahead and run up. Or they can do the reverse.
The games they can play are beyond our scope.
And that is the reason why I have an Ant farm as my avatar, and consistently write...
"We are all ants in the ant farm controlled by some child. Everything is beyond our control. The MM child decides when we are fed, and when our world is shaken. We as ants carry on."

 

[ZachF]

New video from Sandy expanding on Battery Day:

 

[LN1_Casey]

The macros are going up, and Tesla is very sticky to low 400's....

 

[lafrisbee]

Model Y cars are eligible for the 2k performance upgrade now. Nice little bit of incremental revenue and profit there.

My man Chicken Genius doesn't get lots of love here. I like his channel a lot. He dips into TA a bit but is usually pretty accurate.

I love chicken genius. He's pure and honest. And has a good heart. And gives a worthwhile perspective of TSLA.
And then there is his word choices! When he cusses I howl!

 

[woodisgood]

Right now is a good example of maxpain potentially being in play. Nasdaq continues higher. Tesla for some reason has stalled its climb in between 400 and 405 and is happy to bounce around in that region. If Nasdaq continues higher for the remainder of today and TSLA stays in this range, one might presume that significant resources were spent capping TSLA. If those resources were of the MM shorting variety, one might expect some strong buying on Monday. This is one mechanism that often leads to TSLA "moon Mondays," often amplified by some tweet or news coming out over the weekend.