Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

This mandatory Monday morning dip is going on for longer than expected. :/

I think you helped turn the direction. Thank you!

 

[bkp_duke]

My IRA mutual funds finally sold and cash cleared.

Do we think we will get another buy opportunity this week at or below 400 before deliveries are reported late in the week?

My gut tells me this is my last opportunity to get in at the low 400s. After deliveries, there will likely be a share price pop, and then more talk of inclusion which will further the pop . . .

 

[ZachF]

Most have missed that Tesla already mentioned they are cost competitive in markets where they actually compete. In terms of performance, safety, tech, and cost of ownership, a Model 3 or S is already a better value for most buyers than similar vehicles. The wonderful numbers you have broken down above just change it from "competitive" to "utterly destroy".

IMO battery day has added a pillar to the Tesla growth trajectory as large as FSD.



Even just taking the 50% battery weight into account with a performance 3 and assuming better cooling, that's a track beast right there. That's with no other changes. If you want to start talking about a smaller body and more power then it starts getting crazy. I'd LOVE a cyber 3 myself.

I think a circa 2025 Tesla lineup could look like this:

"Model 2" is the compact Tesla, and "Model Z" is the CUV/Hatchback version of it. Who knows what the real names will be, but those seem to fit for now.

I also suspect there will be a van version of the Cybertruck, and a smaller "World truck" version (Cyberute?). Add those in and I can easily see that lineup getting Tesla to the high 7 digits in sales by the late 20s.

Pretty much all of the existing models above would have lower mfg costs in spite of the better numbers.

 

[Destination]

I think a circa 2025 Tesla lineup could look like this:

"Model 2" is the compact Tesla, and "Model Z" is the CUV/Hatchback version of it. Who knows what the real names will be, but those seem to fit for now.

I also suspect there will be a van version of the Cybertruck, and a smaller "World truck" version (Cyberute?). Add those in and I can easily see that lineup getting Tesla to the high 7 digits in sales by the late 20s.

Pretty much all of the existing models above would have lower mfg costs in spite of the better numbers.

love it.

wonder if Tesla would push a SpaceX edition down the lineup.

Model 3 “Full thrust” , “block 5” , etc

and just make them class dominators

 

[jbcarioca]

Did you even read what she wrote?

...
"Predictably, when @elonmusk announced at Battery Day last week that would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000, several financial analysts panicked, downgrading the stock and/or cutting their price targets. In our view, traditional financial analysts have missed the mark.

...
Stop presenting this as some incompetent gaffe..

Yes, I read it.
It WAS a gaffe, I'd not say incompetent, but it WAS a gaffe all the same.
She lost her logic by stating the expectation of gigantic drops in existing model prices rather than gigantic improvements in efficiency in every respect.
Ark needs better proof reading.
End of story.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I think a circa 2025 Tesla lineup could look like this:

"Model 2" is the compact Tesla, and "Model Z" is the CUV/Hatchback version of it. Who knows what the real names will be, but those seem to fit for now.

I also suspect there will be a van version of the Cybertruck, and a smaller "World truck" version (Cyberute?). Add those in and I can easily see that lineup getting Tesla to the high 7 digits in sales by the late 20s.

Pretty much all of the existing models above would have lower mfg costs in spite of the better numbers.

I like your thinking, but if the new battery cells provide 44% more range by 2025 then the battery packs you are projecting are too big, or the range will be much better.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Repeated request: stop posting about 420 numerology. This was requested twice before. The reasons:

1. It is getting old
2. It is getting really really old
3. 420 is in reality 2100, so there is no link left to Elon's tweet.

 

[AudubonB]

Or maybe she just made a typo..?

I think people are making a bigger deal from this than it is worth, IMO..

Whether she wrote Model 2 or Model 3, it changes nothing to the argument she was making..

I understand your position but, after so much vitriol having been poured over the company and its stock for so long, I am understandably gun shy at seeing a reputable, sobersided and prominent investor provide fodder for the mischief makers.

And that is why I believe it important. WORDS MATTER!

 

[Tslynk67]

Friday manipulation on a Monday... pfff!

 

[corduroy]

My IRA mutual funds finally sold and cash cleared.

Do we think we will get another buy opportunity this week at or below 400 before deliveries are reported late in the week?

My gut tells me this is my last opportunity to get in at the low 400s. After deliveries, there will likely be a share price pop, and then more talk of inclusion which will further the pop . . .

That's the million dollar question. I too am wondering if we will see under $400 anytime soon. I had some orders placed last week that didn't fill and now I'm kicking myself for not being more aggressive with my bids.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think a circa 2025 Tesla lineup could look like this:

"Model 2" is the compact Tesla, and "Model Z" is the CUV/Hatchback version of it. Who knows what the real names will be, but those seem to fit for now.

I also suspect there will be a van version of the Cybertruck, and a smaller "World truck" version (Cyberute?). Add those in and I can easily see that lineup getting Tesla to the high 7 digits in sales by the late 20s.

Pretty much all of the existing models above would have lower mfg costs in spite of the better numbers.

I do wonder though if there is a point where giving average people more HP in a relatively low price point starts to become a negative in terms of reputation/safety/insurance.

BTW, for the ATV, a 20KWh Roadrunner pack would weigh ~185 (84kg) pounds and cost about $1000 to make... Plus it would be capable of 150hp!

Makes you wonder if Tesla will also get into manufacturing lawnmowers, tractors, etc....

I'd hope that instead they would sell some sort of modular battery system (think cordless tools but larger) that third parties can buy and design the other hardware around. That way I don't have to wait for my SC to repair some guy's lawnmower before they fix my car.

When I retire, if I can't buy an electric assist sailboat/cat for a reasonable price, then I'll build one using power walls or old packs.

 

[Thumper]

Just for the record, Here's my post from the day after the Semi / Roadster reveal. I never believed in the double stack battery theory. Would be way too heavy. New battery tech secured!

Tesla Semi Event -- November 16, 2017
Can we assume that 200MWH battery in such a small probably light car implies a significantly improved/different battery?
Post by: Thumper, Nov 16, 2017 in forum: Semi

 

[gabeincal]

You are not alone! We are agonising over whether to switch from Nespresso to coffee brewed in a pot because the capsules are expensive. Given our financial position, this is crazy

One of the first things I checked was supercharger pricing on my new Model Y as I currently don’t have access to home charging. Well it turns out, if I’m happy to charge beyond 4-9pm, some Bay Area chargers cut my fuel cost in half ($0.31 / kWh normal, $0.16 for off-peak). So I can probably cover a mile for about 5 cents on that! My gas car was over 20 cents a mile on cheap US gas. Since we’re semi-retired, I have the freedom to save on fuel.

Frugality is not necessarily related to your pot size in the bank (or in TSLA for most of us on this board)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Strooooooong headwinds for this MMD. The dippers must be feeling the pain!

 

[elasalle]

Best efforts to try to keep it below 416 (mid BB)

 

[ZachF]

I do wonder though if there is a point where giving average people more HP in a relatively low price point starts to become a negative in terms of reputation/safety/insurance.

It's electric. You can easily reduce power in your own car if you want too via software.

For instance, if your kid is driving it they could offer a "nerf mode".

 

[phantasms]

Friday manipulation on a Monday... pfff!

Yeah very odd today. My first Red short term trading day in a while. Let's see what this mid BB does. I loaded up again for what's looking to be more losses! lol

 

[lafrisbee]

I can envision all the new Gigas in a continual state of construction/expansion even after batteries and vehicles start pouring out. With the 10x reduction in Giga footprint/GWh/yr discuses during BD, some pretty awesome production should be possible from land Tesla already owns.

This post made me also consider the development of a competent workforce...
Around here, The Space Coast of Florida (Hughes, Northrop-grumman, Harris, ULA, SPACEX) have invested in the community colleges so the area becomes a greenhouse for a focused workforce. Young people see the opportunity to get a great job without a higher diploma, and they are motivated to work to become proficient in the skill set required to enter that workforce.
So the workforce expands/becomes tailored for more of the same industry. Which is just another win for Tesla.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My IRA mutual funds finally sold and cash cleared.

Do we think we will get another buy opportunity this week at or below 400 before deliveries are reported late in the week?

My gut tells me this is my last opportunity to get in at the low 400s. After deliveries, there will likely be a share price pop, and then more talk of inclusion which will further the pop . . .

Here's your window! The bottom of today's MMD should give you a nice bump even by just the end of today. IMO TSLA will snap back to it's normal macro*3 later today or tomorrow.

 

[GOVA]

This seriously needs to stop

A Telsa Moedl 3 in China was c@ught on video smashing into a fake pedestrian in an automatic braking test

A Tesla Model 3 in China was caught on video smashing into a fake pedestrian in an automatic braking test

Bunch of moronic sites post this one after another. To whomever does not know better, which applies to 99% of people, it is a blunt misrepresentation of how things really are.

Now, that 99% of the mass will see Tes las as pedestrian 'unfriendly' cars.

What can be done to prevent lies? Legal action?