Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe they're passing-on cost savings to the customer /s

Haha good one

In all seriousness, Ford is losing money on each one and is now going to lose even more. They have no vertical integration to help lower the cost, especially on the battery side, and they haven't shipped a single vehicle yet and they have the benefit of the full tax credit. They really shouldn't need to lower the price before shipping a single vehicle if there was healthy demand for the at least the first 30-40k vehicles.

It very much reads as after the initial buying volume when they announced the Mach E, interest dropped significantly.....down to the point that they can't justify their current production plans without dropping the price.......which isn't necessarily a bad thing.....if you're expecting to increase your production rate into the hundreds of thousands. But Ford's not planning anywhere near that production rate level and they've said so themselves.

 

[wipster]

Cutting close but made it to quarter end. Renton WA center is completely full of new cars, double parked, triple parked, just piles of new Testas. Mostly M3s, they had only one other blue Y on the lot. They told me all this goodness is gonna be gone by end of the month. And it's not a small lot there. Amazing, just think how much time and personnel would it take for a traditional dealership to move this much inventory in such a short period of time. I'd say at least 3x if not 5x.

Investment advice: buy high. As in, buy your tesla when the stock is high.

Hey @dakh any updates on the Renton Service Center or am I too early? Thanks for giving us a heads up!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm glad you said this because that was one of THE most memorable moments during the Battery Day presentation for me where Elon basically eyerolled how "amazing" the Maxwell DBE technology wasn't after they acquired them.

Yep. The other related thing I noticed was when Elon said they had purchased mineral rights to mine lithium in Nevada, he kinda chuckled about it - I immediately thought it revealed that he thought the chances of success for that was low. "Hey, let's try this wacky idea that no one's pulled off and see if it works".

 

[lafrisbee]

I wasn't there, although wish I could have been. But I understand that the attendees did get to do a tour of the factory after the presentation. And after signing NDAs and agreeing not to take photos or videos.

I think a "few" of the "influencers" got to tag along with the big time investors for a tour of the battery manufacturing line, but not most attendees. And those influencers have stated they know something they are not allowed to release at this time.

 

[wipster]

Sorry about that - edited my post, but jump to around 1hr 20min 20sec for the discussion about DBE and Maxwell. Elon's specific phrase, "We did acquire Maxwell a little over a year ago I guess? It's certainly a good company and everything, but the dry coating they had I would call "proof of concept..."

Not exactly a glowing compliment IMO, but maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

I felt the same way... he seemed rather disappointed (or did he?).

 

[lafrisbee]

Some large investors got a tour. The majority were first escorted out. Although I enjoyed seeing Semi, Roasdster, ATV, and Cybertruck up close, the presentation was better via the web. From my car I couldn’t see the stage and large screens didn’t sync well with audio.

well this just proves that Battery day was NOT delayed due to needing to see the presentation "in person."
I really don't like Tesla not being honest.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think a "few" of the "influencers" got to tag along with the big time investors for a tour of the battery manufacturing line, but not most attendees. And those influencers have stated they know something they are not allowed to release at this time.

If that’s the case then that’s not cool.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Jack Ma is like the ~28th richest man.

And TBH, Jack Ma probably got there 100% from CCP connections... watch the interview he did with Musk. Musk clearly thinks he's a moron and is biting his tongue the whole time.

In all honesty...Jack Ma isn't a moron...and there is that language barrier there...probably both ways and not just Elon trying to understand him.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sorry about that - edited my post, but jump to around 1hr 20min 20sec for the discussion about DBE and Maxwell. Elon's specific phrase, "We did acquire Maxwell a little over a year ago I guess? It's certainly a good company and everything, but the dry coating they had I would call "proof of concept..."

Not exactly a glowing compliment IMO, but maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

Either interpretation is valid. Someone will just have to ask Elon at some point. It could very well be that they went into the acquisition knowing they had a bunch of R&D still to do. So Elon's comments could have been directed more towards the general audience, teaching us that scaling up manufacturing is always difficult. I mean, they knew Maxwell only had a prototype, right? Maxwell wasn't claiming to have a full production process based on what we saw of their materials before the acquisition.

Incidentally, remember at the time of the acquisition, there was bitching and moaning from some Maxwell investors that the acquisition price was too low? They might have even launched a lawsuit. Anyways, the all stock deal was priced before Tesla stock zoomed 4x. I wonder if those Maxwell investor geniuses held onto Tesla stock or sold it right away.

 

[Cosmacelf]

well this just proves that Battery day was NOT delayed due to needing to see the presentation "in person."
I really don't like Tesla not being honest.

It proves nothing of the sort. The spectacle of seeing all those Model 3 and Y cars lined up was worth it for PR effect. It also affected the journalists covering the event.

 

[RED MDL3]

well this just proves that Battery day was NOT delayed due to needing to see the presentation "in person."
I really don't like Tesla not being honest.

I don’t think it’s dishonesty. Covid restrictions were strongly enforced. Using cars was a last ditch effort to even hold the event. The county had approved handouts which said attendees had to stay in their vehicles with windows up, or wear a mask with windows down. Only 10 people away from their vehicles at any time. Only two people in line for restrooms. I would attribute the few allowed to tour to these restrictions.
Their choice was “some get a tour” or “none get a tour”. No possibility of “all get a tour”.

 

[Zaxxon]

Back in the '90s, lo those many years ago, when I worked at Qualcomm, I was always amazed that the company would beat the wall street estimates and then QCOM would go down, because "they didn't beat the estimates as much as we thought they would!" I think this is now being applied to TSLA. Wall St says 141k, Troy says 144k (just from memory), what's the bet that if deliveries are fewer than150k the stock will drop on the next trading day, along with fake news saying that Tesla missed expectations (not estimates). But hold anyway.

"Companies don't miss estimates. Analysts miss reality." - Galileo Russell

 

[Tyler34]

I don’t think it’s dishonesty. Covid restrictions were strongly enforced. Using cars was a last ditch effort to even hold the event. The county had approved handouts which said attendees had to stay in their vehicles with windows up, or wear a mask with windows down. Only 10 people away from their vehicles at any time. Only two people in line for restrooms. I would attribute the few allowed to tour to these restrictions.
Their choice was “some get a tour” or “none get a tour”. No possibility of “all get a tour”.

They could've streamed the tour...you know, so everyone got to see what was going on in there, instead of just the billionaires and Gali.

 

[Cosmacelf]

They could've streamed the tour...you know, so everyone got to see what was going on in there, instead of just the billionaires and Gali.

No. An LG engineer watching the stream could glean a LOT from such a tour, whereas the bloggers wouldn't know what they are seeing.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

They could've streamed the tour...you know, so everyone got to see what was going on in there, instead of just the billionaires and Gali.

Hey Gali owns both Tesla and SpaceX stock. He's a soon to be billionaire. Unfair to exclude him.

 

[JRP3]

In all honesty...Jack Ma isn't a moron...and there is that language barrier there...probably both ways and not just Elon trying to understand him.

He made some moronic statements, in any language.

 

[MP3Mike]

They could've streamed the tour...you know, so everyone got to see what was going on in there, instead of just the billionaires and Gali.

That sort of defeats having people sign an NDA and not allowing pictures/video to be taken. (There are probably trade secrets in there that they don't want competitors to see.)

 

[Tyler34]

That sort of defeats having people sign an NDA and not allowing pictures/video to be taken. (There are probably trade secrets in there that they don't want competitors to see.)

I think thats the point. Why are certain investors privy to this information, and not everyone? Either everyone gets to see it or no-one.

 

[Todd Burch]

Extremely low volume today, again.

 

[scaesare]

It could very well be that they went into the acquisition knowing they had a bunch of R&D still to do. So Elon's comments could have been directed more towards the general audience, teaching us that scaling up manufacturing is always difficult. I mean, they knew Maxwell only had a prototype, right? Maxwell wasn't claiming to have a full production process based on what we saw of their materials before the acquisition.

This was more the impression I took away... more that the public needed to temper expectations than that the DBE process wasn't of value. I think the idea that DBE produces a "super battery" as opposed to it really being a manufacturing/scaling enabler may be what he was trying to reset...