Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Is there a source on officially saying they expect to recognize ALL FSD revenue by end of this year? I don't see how that's possible given the rollout timetable Elon's given recently- at the very least pre-3/19 revenue couldn't be completely recognized by then (though possibly post 3/19 revenue could if it goes perfectly)

I don't see how they could until the software has been delivered to all customers.

 

[scaesare]

No way will this thing be an indestructible construction site vehicle. The H1 (before GM) had that potential, but GM just made a kit car over a Tahoe frame that took some H1 styling queues and took all the good engineering out. There's not enough cargo area to make it a real work truck.

Indeed.

I would have much rather seen something along the lines of an electric version of the H1 Alpha.

 

[Singuy]

Is there a source on officially saying they expect to recognize ALL FSD revenue by end of this year? I don't see how that's possible given the rollout timetable Elon's given recently- at the very least pre-3/19 revenue couldn't be completely recognized by then (though possibly post 3/19 revenue could if it goes perfectly)

This was from the 10k posted in Feb. Maybe I. Looking at it wrong. Under deferred revenue for FSD, super chargers, etc etc they wrote this.

"Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of December 31, 2019. From the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2018, revenue recognized during the year ended December 31, 2019 was $220 million. From the deferred revenue balance as of January 1, 2018, revenue recognized during the year ended December 31, 2018 was $81 million. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees as of December 31, 2019, we expect to recognize $751 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the performance period as discussed above in Automotive Sales without Resale Value Guarantee."

It's probably not all of the revenue for FSD but that's a huge chunk of it.

 

[Unpilot]

Man you guys that play the morning pop...slow walk down must make out like bandits.

 

[ZsoZso]

Quantum (Schroedinger) motors

And you never know if its dead or alive until you open the frunk.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What's the expectation on guidance language for today? Obviously there will be an update on the 2020 delivery range estimate from 3Q P&D, but are we likely to hear a rigid number for 2021?

The low end seems to be 750k, but Elon likely has 1M in his sights. Now that the wider investing world has come to understand Elon's aspirational projections, I'd like to see a range of 800,000 to 1M announced for 2021. Has anything for 2021 officially been announced to date?

 

[gabeincal]

NKLA is up ~10%. Didn’t expect anything less.

 

[Singuy]

What's the expectation on guidance language for today? Obviously there will be an update on the 2020 delivery range estimate from 3Q P&D, but are we likely to hear a rigid number for 2021?

The low end seems to be 750k, but Elon likely has 1M in his sights. Now that the wider investing world has come to understand Elon's aspirational projections, I'd like to see a range of 800,000 to 1M announced for 2021. Has anything for 2021 officially been announced to date?

Isn't 750k the 50% yoy growth he guided for that no one believes? Since when did that became the low end?

 

[kbM3]

Isn't 750k the 50% yoy growth he guided for that no one believes? Since when did that became the low end?

More recently at the annual shareholder meeting, he stated the next two years should exceed 50%.

 

[JBRR]

Implied earnings move down to 6.8%. Historical average actual move is 7.9%.

 

[Knightshade]

This was from the 10k posted in Feb. Maybe I. Looking at it wrong. Under deferred revenue for FSD, super chargers, etc etc they wrote this.

"Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of December 31, 2019. From the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2018, revenue recognized during the year ended December 31, 2019 was $220 million. From the deferred revenue balance as of January 1, 2018, revenue recognized during the year ended December 31, 2018 was $81 million. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees as of December 31, 2019, we expect to recognize $751 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the performance period as discussed above in Automotive Sales without Resale Value Guarantee."

It's probably not all of the revenue for FSD but that's a huge chunk of it.

Ah, thanks- that makes a lot more sense... I agree MOST could be recognized, especially since the 3/19 and later buyers are likely the larger number of owners at this point, and paid 2-2.5 times more for FSD too.

I think a key thing to look for is how quickly the re-write moves from "tiny secret group with extra NDAs" to "the general early access folks who leak on youtube"... I would expect that would need to happen within the next few weeks to have any chance of a general rollout before end of year.... IIRC the stoplight/stop sign feature took about a month to get from EA to general release and that's a lot smaller thing than handling city intersections with turns.

 

[Gabos]

How do you guys think the media will spin a probable miss on GAAP net income and free cash flow (due to non-sensical expectation averages on FactSet and company compiled "consensus"). Will the FUD be enough for a strong downward pressure on the stock?

 

[Singuy]

More recently at the annual shareholder meeting, he stated the next two years should exceed 50%.

Still not sure how that works because he compared it to this year which may not meet the 500k he wanted. So if we hit the lower end of his guide from the shareholder meeting for this year, 750k next year "exceed" 50% yoy growth.

 

[corduroy]

Is FOMO buying finally kicking in?

 

[phantasms]

It's happening!

 

[MABMAB]

Is FOMO buying finally kicking in?

I'd suggest taunting the bears to put their money where their mouth is.
Oh, and continue properly demonstrating acceleration on the road when next to any ICE gear monkey.
Give rides to onlookers, the car is far superior than anything available.
Do your part!

 

[heltok]

Autonomous driving is all about getting the weights of the neural network right. After Tesla has solved it to decent levels (99.99999%), what if there is a theft of . Hackers like GREEN on twitter seem to be able to snoop around very easily. XPENG acquired so much of the source code already. They have had access to so much of IP illegally which is sooo unfair. What if somebody steals the weights as well??

I would really want this question answered during the Earnings.

They got a question about this on autonomy day. Cliffs, it’s not a problem, you cannot just copy paste the weights into another SDC-program and just have it work. What they can do is copy the hardware(many years), gather their own data(many years) and then steal the network architecture(a few hours).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Still not sure how that works because he compared it to this year which may not meet the 500k he wanted. So if we hit the lower end of his guide from the shareholder meeting for this year, 750k next year "exceed" 50% yoy growth.

I'm just going by Elon's broad projections and what's discussed here. This board seems to feel 1M is within reach. I don't think the wider investing world has a baseline expectation, hence my original question.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is FOMO buying finally kicking in?

The tiniest few buyers showed up and SP popped. That's what happens when you drive SP down artificially and there are no real actual sellers to provide shares at that price.

 

[jeewee3000]

Is FOMO buying finally kicking in?

Buy the rumour, sell the news.

To all ER-gamblers turning up on TMC the last couple of days asking what the SP will do tomorrow: don't say I didn't warn ya!