Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

But as an investor, I would caution against thinking the latest beta release has moved the timetable for governmental approvals forward or that the market will suddenly "get it". In terms of the market, it will be a gradual and inconsistent factor in TSLA valuation with many fits and starts.

I agree with your statement. I'd like to point out that stocks, as futures, will trade ahead of the government approval. XX% of the valuation that TSLA gets for FSD will occur before the march of 9's and government approval. The software released last week (very limited release) shows enough merit IMO to justify some more of that XX% to make its way into the stock. I suspect that once this release goes broader, we'll see more upside to SP.

 

[Nb1277]

What’s the maximum realistic cost of the S/X suspension recall in China? What’s the cost to Tesla if it ends up applying globally?

 

[insaneoctane]

My honest advice:

• Don't buy your TM3 until you are ready. If you want to save most/all the money, do so
• The price of the SR M3 seems as likely to go down as up (excluding FSD)
• To counter the increase in FSD, take the amount you've saved so far and buy TSLA. While there is some risk here, over 18 months I'd say it is quite low and, IMO, very likely to appreciate far more than the $2K FSD increase and depending on your initial investment could both shorten your time to afford and reduce out of pocket costs.

My honest suggestion isn't without risk, but it is what I would do

Forgot to say that my "honest advice" is NOT advice and most definitely should not be taken as such per my lawyers

 

[Thumper]

Come on people. Thumper needs more FSD videos.

 

[pz1975]

Weekend OT but I had to share. I welcomed a new Tesla to our family this week - a 2010 Roadster. So fun to drive and would not have been able to purchase it without the investment help from everyone here on this forum. Thank you!

 

[EVMeister]

What’s the maximum realistic cost of the S/X suspension recall in China? What’s the cost to Tesla if it ends up applying globally?

I can't answer the first bit, but this isn't going to apply globally. Tesla didn't agree that the recall was necessary and were basically forced to do so by Chinese authorities. Per their letter in response to the issue: "Tesla is not conducting a recall outside of China based upon the Company's determination that there is no defect in the subject components and no associated safety-risk".

 

[Artful Dodger]

What’s the maximum realistic cost of the S/X suspension recall in China? What’s the cost to Tesla if it ends up applying globally?

Rob Maurer covered this in Friday's edition of "Tesla Daily" on Youtube. The number of S/X affected in China is 0.1% of 30K units, or exactly 30 cars. Call it $1K wholesale to replace the front half-shafts, and that's $30K total. Peanuts (unless ur short).

In the U.S. the affected rate is 0.05% but their is NO recall. That's why Tesla says the issue doesn't justify a recall in China, but it's more expensvie to appeal the ruling than to just update the 30 cars listed.

The S/X isn't sold globally, but I think that Bjorn broke his half-shafts hooning offroad in his (referral freebee) Ludicrous Model X "Optimus Prime"

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

Rob Maurer covered this in Friday's edition of "Tesla Daily" on Youtube. The number of S/X affected in China is 0.1% of 30K units, or exactly 30 cars. Call it $1K wholesale to replace the front half-shafts, and that's $30K total. Peanuts (unless ur short).

In the U.S. the affected rate is 0.05% but their is NO recall. That's why Tesla says the issue doesn't justify a recall in China, but it's more expensvie to appeal the ruling than to just update the 30 cars listed.

The S/X isn't sold globally, but I think that Bjorn broke his half-shafts hooning offroad in his (referral freebee) Ludicrous Model X "Optimus Prime"

Cheers!

I have a 2020 model X and I broke the half shafts at 18k miles. Took it into service told them what was going on they gave me a model X loaner… They had the car for three days… The car ordered its own parts… And I haven’t had that problem since. Now have a total of 40,000 miles on the vehicle. I don’t remember the exact price listed on the warranty repair slip; but it was free to me and I remembered thinking that the dealer cost price seemed real low (if it hadn’t been warrantied). Also, it was a superseded part number.
I can contrast that with the two months that my ram pick up was in the shop for an exhaust cab leak. And they gave me a neon ‘rental’ after much argument. So there’s that.

 

[printf42]

Rob Maurer covered this in Friday's edition of "Tesla Daily" on Youtube. The number of S/X affected in China is 0.1% of 30K units, or exactly 30 cars. Call it $1K wholesale to replace the front half-shafts, and that's $30K total. Peanuts (unless ur short).

In the U.S. the affected rate is 0.05% but their is NO recall. That's why Tesla says the issue doesn't justify a recall in China, but it's more expensvie to appeal the ruling than to just update the 30 cars listed.

The S/X isn't sold globally, but I think that Bjorn broke his half-shafts hooning offroad in his (referral freebee) Ludicrous Model X "Optimus Prime"

Cheers!

From what I read the China recall is about suspension arms, did not mention half shaft.

Also they are going to replace them for all the cars recalled, not just the ones affected.
So it’s more like 1k * 30k = 30M, but still it’s a non event, even if Tesla decides to do the same for global markets too.

I suspect these could be partially drawn from warranty reserves, so probably won’t hurt Q4 results too much. Anyone knows otherwise?

 

[dakh]

View attachment 602132 Weekend OT but I had to share. I welcomed a new Tesla to our family this week - a 2010 Roadster. So fun to drive and would not have been able to purchase it without the investment help from everyone here on this forum. Thank you! View attachment 602129

That's a pretty bold move, congratulations! I'm sure being bold with your money made it easier to be bold with your car choices

 

[Artful Dodger]

"(Oct 22) Model 3 is shipped to Europe, and Model Y will be mass-produced soon" | Jason Yang (9:12)

 

[Words of HABIT]

I don't really buy this because Canada's lane marking are kept up much better than those in the U.S. but they have fewer accidents/100,000.

USA is a a smaller country than Canada with 10X the population (10X the cars), so yes, not surprised to see USA at twice the death rate per 100k than Canada....and yes, Canadians are much more polite and safer drivers...sorry if I offended anyone...eh?

 

[ggr]

Occasional-Mod: while talking about the market effects of FSD is relevant, anecdotes about driving safely (or not) are not. Please think before posting. --ggr.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

From what I read the China recall is about suspension arms, did not mention half shaft.

Also they are going to replace them for all the cars recalled, not just the ones affected.
So it’s more like 1k * 30k = 30M, but still it’s a non event, even if Tesla decides to do the same for global markets too.

I suspect these could be partially drawn from warranty reserves, so probably won’t hurt Q4 results too much. Anyone knows otherwise?

Yeah, I haven't owned a car in 20 years so don't know much about recalls. But unless you have to fix every car isn't that more of an extended warranty? Rob Mauer certainly called it a potential $30 million cost.

 

[GOVA]

Linette Lopez at it again...

Tesla critic concludes that Powerwalls do not exist because she's never seen one

“In all of my Tesla reporting over the years I have not actually been able to find the people buying or selling the Powerwall. So I’ve had to deduce, based on that, that there is no such thing,”

I guess she's never heard of this new web site called YouTube that has a bunch of videos on it, including ones about owners discussing their experience with Powerwall.

Man. Linette Lopez and Gordon Johnson might be siblings, me thinks. I really want to find out eventually if each one is this stupid a tool or both.

 

[GOVA]

I know this isn't news to anyone, but holy smokes Fremont is a convoluted mess. Shanghai, Austin and Berlin look so much better than this.
Can't hurt for margins and for quality, especially if Fremont looks like this on the inside too, in terms of layout.

Yea, this is when you purchase old Toyota plant and deal with endless adoptions and limited space.
All others are new, clean slate projects.

 

[Matthew049]

I expect things to remain choppy. Trump did contract a perfect excuse to lose, but didn’t use it. He’ll continue to fight. Once the lead starts reducing, that may create its own momentum. And MMs like choppy.

As to India, personally I wouldn’t drive anything without an exoskeleton there. No worries about the car getting dinged by some careless people. I don’t think it needs to be fast, just nimble enough to handle the busy traffic.

exoskeleton and 4 wheel drive to handle driving over all the people's crap

 

[Beltsbear]

Rob Maurer covered this in Friday's edition of "Tesla Daily" on Youtube. The number of S/X affected in China is 0.1% of 30K units, or exactly 30 cars. Call it $1K wholesale to replace the front half-shafts, and that's $30K total. Peanuts (unless ur short).

In the U.S. the affected rate is 0.05% but their is NO recall. That's why Tesla says the issue doesn't justify a recall in China, but it's more expensvie to appeal the ruling than to just update the 30 cars listed.

The S/X isn't sold globally, but I think that Bjorn broke his half-shafts hooning offroad in his (referral freebee) Ludicrous Model X "Optimus Prime"

Cheers!

Unfortunately that’s not correct. I generally agree with You but not this time. Tesla’s argument was this flaw affects 30 cars. They lost. They have to at least inspect, if not replace, all shafts in the cars. Labor is cheap in China , but it’s probably going to be at least $100 a car. Three million is still peanuts to Tesla. But this is not a $30k problem.

 

[Prunesquallor]

OT
Even Renewables Are Bigger In Texas

Interesting read (Forbes) about renewables progress in Texas. Even in the land where hydrocarbons are king, economics win out in a deregulated market.

 

[Rohan]

Forgot to say that my "honest advice" is NOT advice and most definitely should not be taken as such per my lawyers

Sorry, no takey backsies