The AI for Tesla's FSD is trained every time you disengage...If the cameras can see it, eventually it will learn to avoid it also. I thought there was a Tweet about avoiding potholes also and Musk said it will learn that also at some point. Speed bumps will need to be learned also.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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The AI for Tesla's FSD is trained every time you disengage...If the cameras can see it, eventually it will learn to avoid it also. I thought there was a Tweet about avoiding potholes also and Musk said it will learn that also at some point. Speed bumps will need to be learned also.
Dolphins - in addition to bats as others have mentioned - have excellent vision and echo location.
I was a ride share driver in the detroit area in 2016 and had an apple employee in my car who laughed at my positive comments about teslas self driving program and was confident apple would rock it.
Also briefly worked in roof sales in that time period in the same area and had a ford engineer as a customer who had similar reactions.
What a difference 5 years makes.
Edit: fun fact, I did both of those jobs because I was doing some career transitioning and wanted to learn about the ridehailing and roofing markets first hand to get a sense of what tesla was potentially disrupting. Came away from both of those jobs feeling very confident in Teslas future. Took awhile tho.
Share price is fairly meaningless in this context. Market cap is the figure you should be looking at.
Cokes market cap is roughly half of Tesla.
If s and p were to include Tesla following yet another great quarter, what are some of the dates that it might happen?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, it absolutely is not. That's a myth.
Individual cars never ever learn. (troubleshoot'd be a nightmare for one thing- nor does the car have remotely the power, or tech, to label and train NNs onboard)
Changes in behavior only happen with firmware updates from Tesla- all AI learning/training happens back at HQ.
On the current wide-release versions of firmware, when you disengage only a very very tiny report goes to Tesla- No pictures, no video, just location is coordinates, how did you disengage (brake, wheel, stalk), speed, heading and time. That's it. Under 1kb of data in the report.
Useful to tell them "Hey AP has trouble with this one location" when a lot of reports in the same spot come in, but that's it.
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Why wouldn't it? FSD can sell for $100k each. 20 million sales per year. Huge profit margin (Based on Elon's words). I think the math checks out.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Waymo has remote folks who get pinged for weird situations- they don't directly drive the cars at all, but they can tell it to turn around and take a different route and such.
I don't really expect Tesla to do that though as it'd be insanely labor intensive for the size of the fleet.
50% YOY through 2030 is production of cars- not growth of stock price.
As others have pointed out 50% YoY on stock gets you to looney bin market caps by then.
Or you can watch this much shorter one from Rob Mauer one where it makes it clear the 50% is unit sales of cars-including his directly asking Elon about it- not stock price..
Elon Musk's 50% Tesla Growth Rate: 20M+ Vehicles or $2T Revenue?
Bet TSLA
Active Member
To be fair, Tesla also updates things like map data, which can cause changes in behavior. I wouldn't call that "firmware", but it does involve an update from the mothership.
I never meant the individual car. I still believe that once the training labels road debris as a non-drivable area and it's uploaded to the fleet the problem will be solved. If you can see it and the cameras can see it FSD will solve it at some point in the future (be it the HQ computer then). That has to be the reason for cameras.
There's no way FSD would ever work it can't react to random road debris, snow, ice, fallen trees, dead deer on the road etc. It's just a matter of time and collection of data, a lead Tesla has over everyone else.
Mo City
Active Member
If you live in a universe where people pay $100K each for FSD for 20M vehicles/yr in the future, I want to move there.
FSD will never sell for $100K per vehicle. If you actually believe that, I feel sorry for you.
Elon said FSD "should be worth" $100K per vehicle. He never said it would sell for that. I'm also pretty sure if there were tens of millions of robotaxis available, the software for each one wouldn't be worth $100K by anyone's definition. You need some scarcity for that kind of value.
Hate to burst your bubble.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
From historical data we can see that Amazon revenue in 2019 was about 20x revenue in 2007. Share price was also about 20x at the end of 2019 compared to the end of 2007. It's revenue CAGR was 27.76% over that period.
So if Tesla does indeed achieve 50%/yr revenue growth from the end of 2019 through 2027, that's about $629B in 2027, or 25.6x over eight years. So that gets you to TSLA at 2,140 at the end of 2027. If you want to argue that the massive correction this year leaves us at a better baseline, then at this time in 2028 you're looking at TSLA at 10,800. So anywhere in that range has been demonstrated in some sense by AMZN already.
Highly simplistic I admit, but at least some historical basis as a possibility.
So if Tesla does indeed achieve 50%/yr revenue growth from the end of 2019 through 2027, that's about $629B in 2027, or 25.6x over eight years. So that gets you to TSLA at 2,140 at the end of 2027. If you want to argue that the massive correction this year leaves us at a better baseline, then at this time in 2028 you're looking at TSLA at 10,800. So anywhere in that range has been demonstrated in some sense by AMZN already.
Highly simplistic I admit, but at least some historical basis as a possibility.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I'm a bit surprised at all the shock and amazement at what the beta FSD release can do. Elon's been pretty clear about its capabilities and yet apparently hardly anybody here believed him. If even the ardent fans here didn't believe, then you can be sure that nobody else anywhere did. That means that none of this whatsoever is priced in. And it won't be for quite a while, as beliefs change slowly.
I'm also a bit surprised at the level of stupid and non-comprehending skepticism. Up until now, the system has been half blind. Now it can see. If it can see stuff accurately, then it can learn to react to it. It's no harder to learn to react to speed bumps or potholes than it is to react to stop signs or speed limits, probably easier. Certainly easier than bicyclists. So why does anybody think it will take a long time to learn these things? They're the easy stuff. For one thing, they don't move.
Anyway, can we try to be less stupid? Or at least hold off on posting opinions on stuff you don't know anything about?
By the way, I've seen a couple of videos which indicate that speed bumps are already solved. This leaves statements like "Speed bumps will need to be learned also." looking less than brilliant.
I'm also a bit surprised at the level of stupid and non-comprehending skepticism. Up until now, the system has been half blind. Now it can see. If it can see stuff accurately, then it can learn to react to it. It's no harder to learn to react to speed bumps or potholes than it is to react to stop signs or speed limits, probably easier. Certainly easier than bicyclists. So why does anybody think it will take a long time to learn these things? They're the easy stuff. For one thing, they don't move.
Anyway, can we try to be less stupid? Or at least hold off on posting opinions on stuff you don't know anything about?
By the way, I've seen a couple of videos which indicate that speed bumps are already solved. This leaves statements like "Speed bumps will need to be learned also." looking less than brilliant.
engle
Member
In my gated community with private roads I wonder if I can train local FSD to cross the double line and drive up the middle of the street to cross each speed hump without getting a bump?
"What you gon' do with all that junk
All that junk inside your trunk?
I'ma get-get-get-get you drunk
Get you love drunk off my hump
My hump, my hump
My hump, my hump, my hump
My hump, my hump, my hump
My lovely little lumps, check it out!" - Black-Eyed Peas "My Humps"
Most of those 20 million cars will be 25k cars. Do you think people who have difficulty buying a Model 3 will buy FSD for 100k?
If so, do you think there is an opportunity for a competitor to offer it at 75k? And Tesla matches the price, that the Possibility exists that he competitor will offer it for 50k?
I’m old enough to have lived in a time where you had to pay for the operating system of your computer. These days it is much more complicated and it is free.
I applied it to revenue and came in around the 2 Trillion in 2030 number.
I suggested discussing this in the Super Bulls thread, as I think there are a lot of assumptions in this kind of long term projection.
Slightly different assumptions with exponential growth can yield a different result.
I still put myself in the Super Bull camp, but we need to question the assumptions.
I also see total batteries as closer to 3 TWh in 2030 than 6 TWh.
Total cars produced in 2030 as 20 Million and average margin declining due to smaller margins on lower priced models.
IMO there is also the potential for strong competition in energy storage, and some completion in all markets.
But in particular I'm unsure about deriving share price from revenue, at any given share price there needs to be willing buyers...
Long term dividends and earnings definitely help set the price...
The way I see it, 50% growth YoY for 10yrs is unrealistic if you only focus on the auto sector.
Assuming we are still 3yrs away from robotaxi/FSD fully operational at lvl5 autonomy, in these 3yrs, I think the 50% growth is justifiable.
Once reaching lvl5, there is going to be a fundamental shift of car ownership. Many genZ who grew up with Uber/Lyft have little desire of car ownership. And even if Tesla managed to use the auto manufacturing capacity for all the robotaxi deployment, the growth in auto sector would go down from there. And as Elon noted, anyone/car that doesn't have FSD is horse carriage of the 21st century.
Tesla Insurance... I don't see much of it other than a piece of puzzle to solve robotaxi. The only way to prevent insurers to limit the robotaxi deployment by refusing to provide insurance is for Tesla to become the insurer itself.
Which is why the development of in-house manufacturing processes and batteries are super important. Tesla would then shift focus toward other stuff that demands most of our energy usage and disrupt from there. Megapacks already shown Tesla's path to the grid business. With enough battery/solar deployment, Tesla can become a huge power provider to the grid on an industrial scale. Of course, a vertical integration of everything energy related for home like HVAC is kinda no brainer too. Ideally it's going to be something scalable that works from a studio apartment to an 1M sqft factory... it's always about rethinking the status quo.
Then as Tesla's battery' tech matures, we would see deployments of batteries on all businesses that need it... if Semi is proven a success, I'd think the next logical choice would be batteries/propulsion tech for oceanliners for cargo. It's about CO2 replacement. Airplanes are the next big one but I just don't see a battery solution for transatlantic/pacific jumbo jets with batteries unless we have some revolutionary battery tech. Thus, the next logical move would be to tackle the big container loaders.
All in all, if one sees Tesla as an energy company, the potential is huge... but I do think that as Tesla matures, the 50% growth would become harder and harder to maintain. Thus,40k share price or nearly 30T valuation is way too crazy. But I do believe there's a potential for Tesla to overtake AAPL and AMZN to become the most valuable company on earth within the next decade.
Assuming we are still 3yrs away from robotaxi/FSD fully operational at lvl5 autonomy, in these 3yrs, I think the 50% growth is justifiable.
Once reaching lvl5, there is going to be a fundamental shift of car ownership. Many genZ who grew up with Uber/Lyft have little desire of car ownership. And even if Tesla managed to use the auto manufacturing capacity for all the robotaxi deployment, the growth in auto sector would go down from there. And as Elon noted, anyone/car that doesn't have FSD is horse carriage of the 21st century.
Tesla Insurance... I don't see much of it other than a piece of puzzle to solve robotaxi. The only way to prevent insurers to limit the robotaxi deployment by refusing to provide insurance is for Tesla to become the insurer itself.
Which is why the development of in-house manufacturing processes and batteries are super important. Tesla would then shift focus toward other stuff that demands most of our energy usage and disrupt from there. Megapacks already shown Tesla's path to the grid business. With enough battery/solar deployment, Tesla can become a huge power provider to the grid on an industrial scale. Of course, a vertical integration of everything energy related for home like HVAC is kinda no brainer too. Ideally it's going to be something scalable that works from a studio apartment to an 1M sqft factory... it's always about rethinking the status quo.
Then as Tesla's battery' tech matures, we would see deployments of batteries on all businesses that need it... if Semi is proven a success, I'd think the next logical choice would be batteries/propulsion tech for oceanliners for cargo. It's about CO2 replacement. Airplanes are the next big one but I just don't see a battery solution for transatlantic/pacific jumbo jets with batteries unless we have some revolutionary battery tech. Thus, the next logical move would be to tackle the big container loaders.
All in all, if one sees Tesla as an energy company, the potential is huge... but I do think that as Tesla matures, the 50% growth would become harder and harder to maintain. Thus,40k share price or nearly 30T valuation is way too crazy. But I do believe there's a potential for Tesla to overtake AAPL and AMZN to become the most valuable company on earth within the next decade.
Sharing thinking of writing more calls for Oct 30 435 as max pain seems to be 425. Reason being is that it seems likely that it won't be breached due to no impending news.
What do others think?
What do others think?
There was at least one video posted this week with FSD slowing for speed bumps, so that is already solved.
This is what I was thinking as well, hence the question about s and p inclusion dates. That would be one catalyst that could change things quickly.
Shooting up Mon afternoon IMO. 450+.
FSD sinking in. Like Battery Day.
engle
Member
There is a quarterly rebalancing that happens in December. I have a gut feeling we'll be added then with 5 quarters in a row profitability and obviously will remain profitable for the foreseeable future. If S&P doesn't add us within the next year, they will become irrelevant as $TSLA market cap climbs the top ten to eventually challenge and surpass the little fruit company that makes little Linux devices IMHO.
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