Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

I don't think 20% overbuild will be enough. Most regions have periods of weeks with significantly below average sun and/or wind. I know the situation in the UK best, there are periods in winter up to 2 weeks long when high pressure means low wind and clear skies. Being winter the sun is weak, at a low angle and there are only 6 hours of daylight.

There are three solutions: vastly overbuild wind and solar generation (much more than 20%), have several days worth of battery storage, and interconnectors to other regions (Scandinavia, Iceland, France, Spain, Ireland). Other solutions (pumped storage, use hydro as top-up, keep existing power stations, load shedding) either are not practical or too expensive for the UK.

For the UK a mixture of all three solutions is probably best. Overbuilding wind means that it can be exported to other regions, but that requires more interconnectors than currently exist, then batteries balancing demand over shorter periods of really low generation.

Smart loads (charging vehicles when plenty of power) and vehicle to grid are probably in the mix as well, but cannot easily cope with 2 weeks of low power generation.

I think 50%+ overbuild will become common, maybe even 200% extra (3 times). UK also has cryo/liquid air storage - this is built as far as I know. Let's hope the bean counters and lobbyists don't kill it - UK energy plant to use liquid air

Together with shedding load that only works at low prices (2p as mentioned), I think this will be fine.

'Natural' Gas also has to be phased out - I think 2030 for new buildings, 2050 for existing. Might as well start using Tesla / efficient HVAC / time shifted underfloor heating now.

 

[juanmedina]

I bought NIO when I knew nothing about them... then i did my homework .... sold NIO and bought more TSLA ... there is only one 10X from here it is not NIO .... I dont get why there are still folks searching for the runner up when reading and posting on the winners BLOG

I think because of the time line. How long will it take Tesla to go another 10x?

 

[Maarten]

As soon as I see in this thread a post with one of the words: politics, Trump or Biden, I stop reading and move directly to the next post.
Wonderful way of getting through the enormous amount of information and selecting the informational and humorous ones.
So, if anyone stopped after reading the first sentence of this post: I understand completely.

Mod: While it was impossible for us to keep up for the last few days, this is the last post that will be allowed to use the word "politics" without being deleted. And mods have agreed that timeouts will be issued to repeat offenders. --ggr

 

[Favguy]

I think because of the time line. How long will it take Tesla to go another 10x?

If I had to guess, I'd say bull case we are looking at 10x in 5 years, bear case, 10 years.

 

[juanmedina]

If I had to guess, I'd say bull case we are looking at 10x in 5 years, bear case, 10 years.

Exactly, the NIO and Xpev investors wanted to make the 10x in 1 to 2 years after IPO even though Tesla is way safer.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Texas factory update - lots of activity all over the site. Things seem to have sped up these last few days. A precast concrete column has arrived by truck, similar to components used at the Berlin factory. More steel components are arriving as well.

And this is from the late afternoon:

 

[Rotte]

As soon as I see in this thread a post with one of the words: politics, Trump or Biden, I stop reading and move directly to the next post.
Wonderful way of getting through the enormous amount of information and selecting the informational and humorous ones.
So, if anyone stopped after reading the first sentence of this post: I understand completely.

What did you say? I stopped after first sentence.

 

[Christine69420]

This image with what looks like a Model Y outside Tesla Shanghai is making the rounds

It's labeled Wuwa and was retweeted by Tesla Facts: https://twitter.com/bentv_sh/status/1325037115181158401

 

[bkp_duke]

I don't think 20% overbuild will be enough. Most regions have periods of weeks with significantly below average sun and/or wind. I know the situation in the UK best, there are periods in winter up to 2 weeks long when high pressure means low wind and clear skies. Being winter the sun is weak, at a low angle and there are only 6 hours of daylight.

There are three solutions: vastly overbuild wind and solar generation (much more than 20%), have several days worth of battery storage, and interconnectors to other regions (Scandinavia, Iceland, France, Spain, Ireland). Other solutions (pumped storage, use hydro as top-up, keep existing power stations, load shedding) either are not practical or too expensive for the UK.

For the UK a mixture of all three solutions is probably best. Overbuilding wind means that it can be exported to other regions, but that requires more interconnectors than currently exist, then batteries balancing demand over shorter periods of really low generation.

Smart loads (charging vehicles when plenty of power) and vehicle to grid are probably in the mix as well, but cannot easily cope with 2 weeks of low power generation.

A solution, more for the larger countries like the US, is to have a better connection national power grid, instead of the various regional players that we have now. This would enable more power sharing from areas over-producing solar (common in the sunny southwest) with areas that may be shaded due to rain, snow, etc.

That would reduce the need for massive regional over-building of supply.

 

[kbeckley]

I don't think 20% overbuild will be enough. Most regions have periods of weeks with significantly below average sun and/or wind. I know the situation in the UK best, there are periods in winter up to 2 weeks long when high pressure means low wind and clear skies. Being winter the sun is weak, at a low angle and there are only 6 hours of daylight.

There are three solutions: vastly overbuild wind and solar generation (much more than 20%), have several days worth of battery storage, and interconnectors to other regions (Scandinavia, Iceland, France, Spain, Ireland). Other solutions (pumped storage, use hydro as top-up, keep existing power stations, load shedding) either are not practical or too expensive for the UK.

For the UK a mixture of all three solutions is probably best. Overbuilding wind means that it can be exported to other regions, but that requires more interconnectors than currently exist, then batteries balancing demand over shorter periods of really low generation.

Smart loads (charging vehicles when plenty of power) and vehicle to grid are probably in the mix as well, but cannot easily cope with 2 weeks of low power generation.

Good morning ,

I agree with this but I just want to point out that the 20% overbuild the report talks about is ON TOP of the overbuild to get to 100% electrical replacement. I other words you significantly overbuild to deal with no wind and no sun then you build 20% on to of that. The point is SWB is so cheap the overbuild benefits are massive. The details are in the report.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

And this is from the late afternoon:

And Gigafactory Berlin progress:

Early in the video you can see a foundation similar to the small pit at Gigafactory Austin, on the left next to the paint shop wall.

It always amazes me how much progress they make in Berlin with so few workers, Shanghai at a similar stage was swarming with construction workers.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

An excellent summation of Tesla stock I think.

Dan

 

[H Mak]

Does anyone know if Tesla will be releasing any stats of the FSD beta? Miles, accidents, interventions etc. We are about 2 weeks into it now and if there had been a single accident, we certainly would have read about it, so this is promising. I've watched many videos that drivers have posted on Youtube and it's very impressive. There is one "near miss" where a left hand turn was taken too wide and might have hit a badly parked car, but didn't. All in all it looks like a great success. (Although I am still braced for an accident and I'm keeping some ££s on the table ready to pile in, in the case of a resulting price dip).

Attached is a fair article about the trial, although it's a week old.

One week in to beta tests, Tesla's FSD navigates roundabouts and skeptics

 

[OrthoSurg]

Exactly, the NIO and Xpev investors wanted to make the 10x in 1 to 2 years after IPO even though Tesla is way safer.

The amount of videos saying NIO will 3-4x within the next 3 months is overwhelming with the new channels like Stock Moe and George Perez. They are feeding the Robbinhood EV 10x believers. A couple institutional investors invested a lot of capital to feed than run up with the SP upgrades.

However, NIO does not have ownership of any factory, it is subcontracted by a Chinese govt owned factory taking part of the profit in every car.

Tesla has still plenty of growth and with all the Giga factories at term, Tesla will become a cash cow with all the startups it is creating at the same time with the insurance, autonomous, industry vertical integration business. Nio could have a good ramp up but will never had the profitability that Tesla will have at maturity.

 

[Boomer19]

made a quick drive by at westport CT EV club today.
manhattan motorcars brought a couple polestar models up to show. 2 electric (and one ICE that looked like a camaro or something similar). i didn’t take a pic of the ICE one. it was pre-event, they were setting up. i just did a quick pop in so i didn’t get too much info. except 78 kwh packs in both ‘performance’ (black) and regular (other color). 20 something pouch cells they said...still has the drivetrain ‘hump’ running through center of the interior becaus it’s on one of the volvo xc chassis

they grey one was about 59k and the black ‘performance’ model about 10k more.
5k for leather and lux package and 5k for improved performance package

range expected to be around 240 miles

for what it’s worth, not a bad looking car.
they were doing test drives had i waited around. my friend will report back to me.

overall not a bad effort. i wouldn’t buy one, but surely some others will.
i haven’t looked too much into polestar yet, so haven’t verified specs or, anything, for that matter.
as for what those presenting told me, that’s part of the picture to consider when checking out the competition

 

[JustMe]

The Texas energy market is fascinating. I was reading about a utility where you pay them $10 a month plus the wholesale cost of electricity. In exchange for some price volatility, you get some very cheap energy. Not for everyone but very interesting. That provides strong incentive to reduce usage during high demand which overall improves system cost and reliability. It also allows you to install home solar and the prices you get are, I believe, 100% market based. This matters because that is a scalable solution and no need for endless fights between utility and customer over how to value the cost of electricity that your home solar system produces.

Here in the Houston area I could choose a power plan that is free after 8 PM - so we are charging our Model S with wind power at no cost.

Some naysayers warn that the grid will collapse if all cars are EVs and everyone charges their car during peak demand. But $ is an strong force to guide consumer behavior. Folks will drive out of their way to save a few cents per gallon on gas. So - many people will charge when it’s cheapest - when power demand is low.

energy storage and EVs will help to smooth supply/demand in the grid.

 

[TravelFree]

It's Friday, which implies the expiration of weekly options. Right now $430 appears to be the most profitable target for option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers). Trading volume is light, which makes manipulation easier.

I did very well selling covered calls throughout the 2019 2nd and 3rd qtr. But end of Oct I had all my Tesla shares called away in that account. This was the first time I did so well in options. I keep it simple as I am afraid of getting caught with a mistake. You make big in options with the risk of losing big. But I found that if I trade with a low basis, then I don't lose. That was the case with Tesla being called away. The risk is lower by following the trends and during that time in 2019 Tesla was trading in a range bound that was good for weekly option risk. You do need to operate on 100 share blocks and at that time I had 300 shares so the cash collected was substantial. I think I did about 30 covered call trades and only the last one went bad. Presently, Tesla is too volatile and growing to play the same game. So, now I am just building position with stock purchases from other equities where I am taking profits.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Interesting article includes info I didn't know about real world phev data that EU can use to tweak emissions standards if phevs just used as ICE.

Norwegian Plugin Market Share Over 79% In October And PHEVs Stagnate

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/OBFCM_data_transfer_20191022.pdf

 

[Christine69420]

WuWa filmed the Chinese Model Y:

This image with what looks like a Model Y outside Tesla Shanghai is making the rounds

View attachment 606130

It's labeled Wuwa and was retweeted by Tesla Facts: https://twitter.com/bentv_sh/status/1325037115181158401

 

[wipster]

Here in the Houston area I could choose a power plan that is free after 8 PM - so we are charging our Model S with wind power at no cost.

Some naysayers warn that the grid will collapse if all cars are EVs and everyone charges their car during peak demand. But $ is an strong force to guide consumer behavior. Folks will drive out of their way to save a few cents per gallon on gas. So - many people will charge when it’s cheapest - when power demand is low.

energy storage and EVs will help to smooth supply/demand in the grid.

Washington state (Eastern side) here, I pay about 7.6 cents per KWh. Hydro is the main power source. Just curious what the KWh price is available there (I like the free one!)?