djy
Member
Chinese EV stocks started dropping after this Citron report came out, downgrading Nio to $25 price target based on not being able to stay competitve with Tesla pricing.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Chinese EV stocks started dropping after this Citron report came out, downgrading Nio to $25 price target based on not being able to stay competitve with Tesla pricing.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well, it's a pretty wide target is the thing.
You have many folks convinced every tesla with FSD will be able to earn it's owners $30,000 or whatever per year in RT income
One pretty well known (and well sued) Friend of Elon before his most recent twitter account was deleted was telling folks they'd get their cybertruck essentially free by buying FSD and using it as a robotaxi.
Even worse folks were both projecting huge profit from Tesla running THEIR OWN RTs (all those leases you can't buy at the end were stated to be slated for that for example) and yet somehow all owners could ALSO run their car as RTs too, all of em!
I think those are pretty ridiculous claims because there's not infinite demand for RTs, and on or before 2030 Tesla will be selling 10 times more cars in one year than there's currently taxis AND rideshare vehicles on the road in the US for example.
Now if someone's claim is RTs will replace all those existing taxis and rideshare cars? That's easily believable- outside of maybe some third world situations where charging isn't up to snuff yet I'd expect them to replace all non robo taxis everywhere else in the world and fairly quickly.
I'd also expect the total #s to be somewhat higher than present as some households decide they don't need to keep a 2nd or 3rd car around because they can use an RT if they REALLY need a spare ride once in a blue moon instead of paying insurance on a car that sits parked most of the time.
But nowhere near the amount of them some folks seem to think.
And all that is only once there actually are Tesla RTs, which again you find....very wide ranges...of opinions on when (or for some even if) that's happening.
All of which makes it very challenging to consider as an investor.
The good news of course is even if RTs never, ever, ever, happen, there's still a slew of other massive upsides to owning TSLA, so you can value it a $0.00 and still find a myriad of reasons to invest in and own it.
And I'm only very bullish.
Speaking of I reinvested some of my sold CC money into doubling my 390 Feb 19 2021 calls since they were even more on sale this morning than when I first bought... can't imagine those don't turn out pretty well after both Q4/YE deliveries and earnings.... (though possibly given recent patterns ideal time to sell em will be in between those two)
Lycanthrope wondered what the purpose was of the current bound stock price. Wild hypothesis: It is to bore (RH) retail investors out of their shares. If the SP stays flat, the crowd that bought Tesla shares because they were hot will lose interest, and switch to Neo or something.
The volume is low. But does that mean there aren’t any buyers? Not necessarily I think. We would have to know the flow of shares. Suppose 25 million shares are traded daily, 1 million of which are dumped by bored retail investors every day. Then after 20 working days, 20 million shares have been collected, or about $8B if my head serves me right. Is this more than a drop in the bucket once index funds have to buy in the exceptional case that Krugerrand is wrong?
This hypothesis can be tested. I believe the number of (Tesla) shares held by RH investors are public. Is there a sizable trend of a renewed number of Tesla shares held by them? (I tried to find data but could only find something for up to September).
The volume is low. But does that mean there aren’t any buyers? Not necessarily I think. We would have to know the flow of shares. Suppose 25 million shares are traded daily, 1 million of which are dumped by bored retail investors every day. Then after 20 working days, 20 million shares have been collected, or about $8B if my head serves me right. Is this more than a drop in the bucket once index funds have to buy in the exceptional case that Krugerrand is wrong?
This hypothesis can be tested. I believe the number of (Tesla) shares held by RH investors are public. Is there a sizable trend of a renewed number of Tesla shares held by them? (I tried to find data but could only find something for up to September).
A story in the local paper today about activists pushing New York State pension funds to divest from fossil fuel stocks. That would free up a lot of money (billions) to invest in the green economy.
"they believe divestment is an effective way to help society make the shift from fossil fuels to renewable and green energy sources, author and climate activist Bill McKibben said."
Activists say New York teachers retirement fund should sell off oil, gas stocks
"they believe divestment is an effective way to help society make the shift from fossil fuels to renewable and green energy sources, author and climate activist Bill McKibben said."
Activists say New York teachers retirement fund should sell off oil, gas stocks
Another 200 shares at $405, only because I missed the recent dip below $400. Will buy more as long as the "Elon's Got COVID" Sale continues . . . all on margin but that's because there no more spare change under in the couch cushions. (It's been working out very well for years now; YMMV.)
But: I really need to be investigating options as I've been out of them ever since I got called out on some covered calls some five years ago. Yeah, I got to buy the shares back later but it's put the kibosh on options ever since. Something about burning your hand on the stove IIRC!
But: I really need to be investigating options as I've been out of them ever since I got called out on some covered calls some five years ago. Yeah, I got to buy the shares back later but it's put the kibosh on options ever since. Something about burning your hand on the stove IIRC!
Deutsche Bank hosted Martin Viecha at their AutoTech Conference this week. Here were their takeaways.
Highlights:
Highlights:
- Low-teens operating margin target in the mid-term. Better KPI than gross margin.
- FSD subscription offering next year, potentially bucketed in several tiers for different functionality.
- FSD team is primarily focused on city driving in North America at the moment.
- Megapack order book is filled out into 2023. Unlimited demand!
- Expected to ship 3.3 GWh in storage this year (vs. 1.65 GWh in 2019). Expects that to double in 2021.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Not just shares, they need to expire TONS of bullish calls levered off the election. This was the rationale I used to just now double down on my Jan 2021 calls. They're doing many logical things at once. Cooling off the RH gamblers, timing out the blue wave calls, loosening up liquidity for inclusion buying.
That's all well and good, but they need to remmember where the bid/ask was prior to Battery Day. The things that have happened since then are mind-blowing, and 4Q P&D plus 1M 2021 guidance will blow the top off it yet again IMO. And that's without even the actual buying pressure of the actual S&P inclusion!
Now that I've typed this out, and read the comments above, I'ma dip into these Feb calls. IV is so low I can justify the purchase
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
GrandEnigma
Member
Well, I expected more of a blood-bath today. Would be funny, indeed, if this was due to the manips avoiding the $400 put-well, only for Elon to test negative over the weekend...
tinyrodent
Member
MB invested heavily in fuel cells over many years.
The same Powertrain R&D people responsible for fuel cell vehicles were responsible for BEV’s. Just getting BEV’s on the corporate agenda took a lot of effort by a few people outside Powertrain who were willing to and did foreshorten their careers. (wrt to most executives at the legacies, I wouldn’t be surprised that were you to look up ‘careerist’ in a dictionary, you’d see it defined as ‘automotive executive’.)
MB Powertrain R&D folks were loathe to do BEV’s yet they took the responsibility in order to kill them in the cradle. They were able to take that responsibility by virtue of the rigidly divided departmental roles.
Having been dragged kicking and screaming into making a BEV, such folks will always introduce a flaw that will limit sales, such as poor range or a pig’s snout for a grille.
BEV’s besetting sin has always been that they don’t burn oil. MB, like all the legacy automakers, makes rolling oil burners.
Corporations are a bit like people in at least one regard: If it is really not in their nature to do something, they will do that thing reluctantly and poorly.
Mo City
Active Member
I think it's near certain Tesla will reach an agreement to build a battery factory in Indonesia.
Yes, they are being installed and using Autobidder.
Tesla supplying 68MWh of Megapack battery storage to Fotowatio’s second project in UK
Ford's CEO Farley said Friday "We are discussing (battery) cell manufacturing, I think that's natural as (EV) volume grows."
I guess they will have their terawatt factory up faster than anyone. /s
I guess they will have their terawatt factory up faster than anyone. /s
So do I.
I think the discussion will be about location (the place the Indonesian government wants is probably not ideal for Tesla), training and employment, downstream activities (vehicle manufacturing), exports, state aid (not just financial), site size (I think Tesla will want a site at least as large as Berlin), and site services (power, water, chemicals, contractors).
AimStellar
Member
Mod note: It is not at all clear that this article is true. --ggr
Consumer Watchdog Hacks A Tesla to Prove Dangers of Wirelessly Connected Cars
LOS ANGELES, Nov. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The nonprofit, nonpartisan Consumer Watchdog today released a video showing how a box it built with the help of technologists could hack into the wireless connection of a Tesla and take over the screen with a "This Tesla's Been Hacked" message.
The video can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/RgpmJ6OhPns
The group said the demonstration showed how vulnerable the wireless connection in the cars is – by amplifying the signal it could work on many vehicles simultaneously, a large scale hack. Once in control of the screen, a hacker could suggest malware be downloaded, potentially giving them access to the car's operation and control over the vehicle, or otherwise sabotage the car.
Consumer Watchdog released the video in conjunction with its new report, "Connected Car Report 2020: The Models Most Open To Hacks," in which it reviews the "Hack 10" of top selling cars.
Read the report here: https://www.consumerwatchdog.org/report/connected-car-report-2020-models-most-open-hacks
The report finds all of Car and Driver's top 10 best-selling cars for 2020 clearly have features that allow wireless connectivity with safety critical systems and no known way to disconnect those systems. This leaves the vehicles vulnerable to an unprecedented, large-scale hack.
"The 2020 fleet is wired for remote start options that connect to safety critical systems wirelessly and leave these cars vulnerable to fleet wide hacks," said Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog. "The remote start capability is accessed through the same digital systems that control steering, acceleration, and braking -- potentially giving hackers control over those as well. Automakers acknowledge to their shareholders that their designs are very vulnerable to malicious hacks at the same time as they promote their wireless start features to the public as a panacea. If Consumer Watchdog can hack a Tesla's wireless connection from outside the vehicle imagine what mischief a hostile foreign actor could do with exponentially more resources."
To prepare its "Connected Car Report 2020," Consumer Watchdog reviewed technical specifications and surveyed dozens of sales departments and service technicians at major car manufacturers.
The nonprofit group found that many dealership employees misrepresented that the safety-critical systems of top selling models are linked online and the dangers of such connections. None of the cars came with an apparent method to disconnect the car from the wireless connection.
When safety critical systems – brakes, engine, steering – are connected wirelessly there is the possibility of that connection being hacked on a fleet-wide basis. This danger is outlined in Consumer Watchdog's previous report, "Kill Switch: Why Connected Cars Can Be Killing Machines and How To Turn Them Off."
The group reserved its grand prize of "Most Hackable Car" for Tesla based on its history of hacks, outlined in the "Connected Car Report."
For example, in July 2017, Tesla CEO Elon Musk professed that the biggest danger of autonomous car technology was a "fleet wide hack." In August 2020, it was reported that just months before that 2017 statement Tesla had faced a fleet wide hack, but failed to reveal it to the public or regulators. Instead, it paid the discoverer of the problem to kept the incident quiet. Read the story at https://electrek.co/2020/08/27/tesla-hack-control-over-entire-fleet/
The company also faced a series of hacks by Keen Labs, a prolific hacker group based in China.
Unlike "white hat" hackers that disclose their findings privately to the company in exchange for payments, called bug bounties, Consumer Watchdog did not contact Tesla about the vulnerability it found. The consumer group said that the point of the hack was to show that Tesla's failure to commit to security by design puts the public at risk and it should have to face that fact in the light of public scrutiny.
Tesla has dismantled its North American public relations department and does not even have a liaison to the public to address safety concerns.
Consumer Watchdog tweeted at Elon Musk "Hey Elon. Hacked your Tesla. Can you figure out how?"
"Elon Musk will either figure out how we hacked the Tesla and patch the problem or he can drive his Tesla down to our office and we will show him how we did it in person on his car," said Court. "The point is that Tesla's system is insecure by design and puts the public at risk. Musk and the car industry need to pay attention to the risks. As we say in the video, we could have amplified the signal and performed the same hack on many Teslas simultaneously. It is inherently dangerous to have unsecured wireless connections to safety critical systems in cars."
SOURCE Consumer Watchdog
Consumer Watchdog Hacks A Tesla to Prove Dangers of Wirelessly Connected Cars
LOS ANGELES, Nov. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The nonprofit, nonpartisan Consumer Watchdog today released a video showing how a box it built with the help of technologists could hack into the wireless connection of a Tesla and take over the screen with a "This Tesla's Been Hacked" message.
The video can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/RgpmJ6OhPns
The group said the demonstration showed how vulnerable the wireless connection in the cars is – by amplifying the signal it could work on many vehicles simultaneously, a large scale hack. Once in control of the screen, a hacker could suggest malware be downloaded, potentially giving them access to the car's operation and control over the vehicle, or otherwise sabotage the car.
Consumer Watchdog released the video in conjunction with its new report, "Connected Car Report 2020: The Models Most Open To Hacks," in which it reviews the "Hack 10" of top selling cars.
Read the report here: https://www.consumerwatchdog.org/report/connected-car-report-2020-models-most-open-hacks
The report finds all of Car and Driver's top 10 best-selling cars for 2020 clearly have features that allow wireless connectivity with safety critical systems and no known way to disconnect those systems. This leaves the vehicles vulnerable to an unprecedented, large-scale hack.
"The 2020 fleet is wired for remote start options that connect to safety critical systems wirelessly and leave these cars vulnerable to fleet wide hacks," said Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog. "The remote start capability is accessed through the same digital systems that control steering, acceleration, and braking -- potentially giving hackers control over those as well. Automakers acknowledge to their shareholders that their designs are very vulnerable to malicious hacks at the same time as they promote their wireless start features to the public as a panacea. If Consumer Watchdog can hack a Tesla's wireless connection from outside the vehicle imagine what mischief a hostile foreign actor could do with exponentially more resources."
To prepare its "Connected Car Report 2020," Consumer Watchdog reviewed technical specifications and surveyed dozens of sales departments and service technicians at major car manufacturers.
The nonprofit group found that many dealership employees misrepresented that the safety-critical systems of top selling models are linked online and the dangers of such connections. None of the cars came with an apparent method to disconnect the car from the wireless connection.
When safety critical systems – brakes, engine, steering – are connected wirelessly there is the possibility of that connection being hacked on a fleet-wide basis. This danger is outlined in Consumer Watchdog's previous report, "Kill Switch: Why Connected Cars Can Be Killing Machines and How To Turn Them Off."
The group reserved its grand prize of "Most Hackable Car" for Tesla based on its history of hacks, outlined in the "Connected Car Report."
For example, in July 2017, Tesla CEO Elon Musk professed that the biggest danger of autonomous car technology was a "fleet wide hack." In August 2020, it was reported that just months before that 2017 statement Tesla had faced a fleet wide hack, but failed to reveal it to the public or regulators. Instead, it paid the discoverer of the problem to kept the incident quiet. Read the story at https://electrek.co/2020/08/27/tesla-hack-control-over-entire-fleet/
The company also faced a series of hacks by Keen Labs, a prolific hacker group based in China.
Unlike "white hat" hackers that disclose their findings privately to the company in exchange for payments, called bug bounties, Consumer Watchdog did not contact Tesla about the vulnerability it found. The consumer group said that the point of the hack was to show that Tesla's failure to commit to security by design puts the public at risk and it should have to face that fact in the light of public scrutiny.
Tesla has dismantled its North American public relations department and does not even have a liaison to the public to address safety concerns.
Consumer Watchdog tweeted at Elon Musk "Hey Elon. Hacked your Tesla. Can you figure out how?"
"Elon Musk will either figure out how we hacked the Tesla and patch the problem or he can drive his Tesla down to our office and we will show him how we did it in person on his car," said Court. "The point is that Tesla's system is insecure by design and puts the public at risk. Musk and the car industry need to pay attention to the risks. As we say in the video, we could have amplified the signal and performed the same hack on many Teslas simultaneously. It is inherently dangerous to have unsecured wireless connections to safety critical systems in cars."
SOURCE Consumer Watchdog
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corduroy
Active Member
Chartered321
Member
So Nio + Xpeng > 1/4 Tesla
You've got to be kidding be
You've got to be kidding be
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