Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

Electrek - 15 minutes ago: Tesla to release new Full Self-Driving Beta update w/ 'fundamental improvements,' wider release could be coming soon - Electrek

Better to go to the source on Twitter (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1329442069488824329) than to give Fred the clicks.

Next week’s release is special. Lot of fundamental improvements, both important bug fixes & entire new areas of functionality.

Updated timeline on wider release of #FSDBeta?

If next week’s release looks good, we will widen beta.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

You are supposed to make the reservation before you have the funds to buy it. The reservation is only $100 (refundable) and the waiting list is long! By the time your name comes up money probably won't be an issue!

Geeze, I already have one! Made it the day after the reveal. LOL!

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Bullish or bearish, like most things in this world it's all relative.

The most bullish thing to do when you need money but don't want to sell shares would be to emulate Elon and borrow against them. I'm not saying that makes sense in your particular situation because it's a riskier option - I'm just saying that is the more bullish path.

Just because someone is overall net bullish on TSLA doesn't mean they always have to make the most bullish trades available! And yet the fact remains, the selling of covered calls is the bearish side of that particular trade. The buying of those same calls that are out of the money is the bullish side of the trade. That's all! It's not complicated. Please don't take it as an insult, it is exactly what it is.

Already did that by taking a €720k mortgage - not explicitly underwritten by my shares, but with the same bank that's my broker and for sure having a couple of $m in my trading accounts sure eased the approval process Wouldn't want to leverage any more, TBH.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Boo! (My wife said it had to be SEVEN hundred!)

LOL! Maybe I should meet your wife!

Dan

 

[BornToFly]

Looks like the SP is taking a breather. We may go red. Get your dry powder ready gang.

Looks like "smart" investors are selling TSLA to buy NIO and NKLA. You know, those companies with no factories and no products, respectively.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Man, the 11 o'clock crap train runs like clockwork doesn't it?

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

There's no escape, we all know that. The actual mid-Dec buying window is going to be madness and there will be major spikes likely followed by TSLA settling much higher than $500 for a good while. BUT....I'm starting to feel like this absurdly long run up will create a big fatigue dip in a week or two. We shall see.

The timing of none of this is very predictable due to probable front-running by both funds and traders, unknown bold options plays by big players, unknown macro events that could create plenty of supply, etc. Anyone who claims to have a handle on this is fooling themselves.

Understand it's highly unlikely this will be the mood for an entire month. It just can't happen that way. Be ready for $420/$440/$460 with a plan!

I agree that's unlikely but I strongly disagree that it's not possible.

Very important rule of investing: Don't think you know more than you actually do. Everything in investing is comprised of moving probabilities.

 

[woodisgood]

The more effort expended keeping this below 500 for tomorrow, the bigger the pop on Monday...

 

[canoemore]

You are supposed to make the reservation before you have the funds to buy it. The reservation is only $100 (refundable) and the waiting list is long! By the time your name comes up money probably won't be an issue!

Exactly. It’s like making a reservation at The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

 

[StealthP3D]

What shot glasses?

The shot glasses that will be the natural "go to" to toast TSLA becoming the most valuable company in the world!

 

[Navin]

Relax guys - even wilt chamberlain had to sleep every now and then.

 

[vikings123]

In summary, I can't imagine another company that makes as much sense as TSLA as to why Berkshire was granted a disclosure exemption (due to S&P inclusion) and yet this doesn't fit well with Berkshires normal mode of operation or the likely large naked short positions at the time of the split announcement. So, the situation is normal, we don't have enough information to be sure one way or the other! It will be interesting to see what the undisclosed stock is and why Berkshire was granted an exception.

There is in fact a precedent for this. If that business insider article is true BRK has been granted this exception multiple times in the past and in every case the mystery company was revealed in the next 13F. I agree with you that the timing of this makes sense. I will also add that Buffett is likely letting his lieutenants play bigger roles when it comes to decision making, snowflake is a recent example.

 

[Rockster]

Relax guys - even wilt chamberlain had to sleep every now and then.

"Wilt, is that you?"

 

[AudubonB]

An interesting post just showed up in the “How much $ to retire” thread.

Full disclosure: I know who posted it.

How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

 

[StealthP3D]

After the September spike, I swore if we hit $500 again I'd sell off about 15% of my TSLA to get rid of margin. Now that we're there, I can't bring myself to do it. Maybe during the inclusion spike.

However, I did the calculations about how leveraging the margin was during my buying of the last two years. My portfolio is ~3x larger than if I had not used any - just by buying on margin and keeping about 80% margin equity during the run-up. I may just continue this strategy.

Margin works great in a bull market. But it can be disastrous as soon as things start going south. Because it doesn't allow the "waiting it out". Do you know how many millions of people had to sell their favorite stock at or near the lows due to personal debt?

 

[StealthP3D]

Already did that by taking a €720k mortgage - not explicitly underwritten by my shares, but with the same bank that's my broker and for sure having a couple of $m in my trading accounts sure eased the approval process Wouldn't want to leverage any more, TBH.

Exactly! Which is why you took the bearish half of the call trade.

Honestly, we should just call things for what they are. This is the number one rule of operating in a first principles manner.

 

[SO16]

thank you for writing that, I was not going to waste my words to try to correct people.

Obviously people that talk like that have never even listened to a full interview or a shareholders meeting of Berkshire.

Charlie Munger is even more impressive and a true thinker in my opinion.

That’s why I recommend everyone that haven’t read the Poor Charlie’s Almanack to do it.

Good grief. Is Buffett a saint or something? He’s not. Is he terrible? No. I’d still support him but he is clearly looking out for his best interests based on his investments vs doing what’s right.

Watch the video I posted earlier.

Watch JONATHAN SCOTT'S POWER TRIP on the PBS Video App
~~~SECOND ADMONITION: PROVIDE the time stamp. 1h23m is too long to have someone search for your point~~~

Starting at 30:48 for about 2 min.

 

[Tyler34]

An interesting post just showed up in the “How much $ to retire” thread.

Full disclosure: I know who posted it.

How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

I would hope you know who posted it

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Google annoyed me today by changing the default search box prompts when you click on it in Android. Obviously when I click into the Google search box the top option is my most frequently searched item.....simply "TSLA".

Now when I click to check the stock price every 15 seconds or so, it defaults to the top few current worldwide search terms. So annoying.

Fortunately for me, by 12:30 or so "Tesla stock" was on that list. I would call that a bullish indicator.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Margin works great in a bull market. But it can be disastrous as soon as things start going south. Because it doesn't allow the "waiting it out". Do you know how many millions of people had to sell their favorite stock at or near the lows due to personal debt?

Understood. I do have ready funds I can move around if I need to cover.

I'll probably reassess after Q4 and FSD release. Those are the last big potential SP plus-ups I see in the next six months.