Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LTC_RRR]

He's using his ALT account - which doesn't have the $TSLAQ blocklist applied: https://twitter.com/StanphylCap

Now that his regular account is down the toilet

 

[SO16]

Now that his regular account is down the toilet

Probably for less than a day. Those temporary Twitter bans are a joke.

 

[jw934]

I am so baffled by non-movement in PM. Such low volume on a massive bank upgrading to BuY?
Maybe the wealthier client base of GS is not willing to spike up the PreMarket and would only buy when there are willing weak longs to part with the shares. But then, why wouldn't the other sharks bid it up already?

Scratching my head.

Thinking cap on.
- GS already bought before the upgrade so they won't be buying
- Long term investors who know Tesla already bought everything they can at $560 yesterday
- Those who didn't buy at $560 and are willing to spend $595 already bought last night during aftermarket
- Traders (both long and short) are selling everything they can, as long as the $600 resistance holds, because the max pain for tomorrow is still $560 (as of close yesterday)
- Investors who still use telephone orders (or do not have pre-market access) will have given their buy at market order to their brokers, so we should see a pop on open, but not during premarket
- Finally, upgrades (just like downgrades) do not change the company fundamentals

 

[SO16]

Tl;dr; great for Tesla, great for other pure EV OEMs. Closes indirect service loophole for ICE brands.




Michiganger here, O Canada, that is a misinformed article...
The settlement had zero interaction with the legislature. The lawsuit was Tesla v Secretary of State (plus governor and attorney general) (from previous administration). The settlement was an interpretation by the executive branch and approved by the judicial of the current law. Said interpretation allowed Tesla to operate subsidiary repair facilities and to perform every part of sales (delivery, trade in, help with paperwork, test drives) other than the actual title transfer/ sale (must happen out of state).

To correct:

Bills at Michigan Legislature - House Bill 6233 (2020)
And covered on this thread when it happened.

Round 2 was the legislature closing this loophole for everyone but Tesla (as a member of that lawsuit).

Round 2.5 was backing off on that loophole elimination.

Now it looks like pure electric manufacturers can be licensed and own repair facilities.
From the proposed bill (pdf didn't like copy paste)
View attachment 614094
View attachment 614095
View attachment 614096


Also:

There were zero changes to legislation.
Entire case is here:
Docket for Tesla, Inc. v. Benson, 1:16-cv-01158 - CourtListener.com


Settlement: https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.miwd.85607/gov.uscourts.miwd.85607.267.0.pdf

So in other words, nothing changes for Tesla from last year’s settlement? They can still have service centers (and hopefully add more) in the state?

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm hoping we get some nice scraps while the big boys battle it out.

Now that his regular account is down the toilet

Why? Did he accidentally flush it while working in his office? Even aside from his Tesla hate, he is a terrible human being. His tweets are always full of so much hate, misogyny etc.

 

[mongo]

Indeed, but Elon's CEO comp. shares don't have to be issued immediately (see below), and Tesla could always do a 4:3 split, or a 3:2 split, etc. Here's recent share inventory, Per #223205:

July 20, 2020 shares: 186,361,726 * 5 = 931,808,630 (split adjusted)
Oct 20, 2020 shares: 947,900,733
Diff Oct-Jul = 16,092,103 shares
Sep 09, 2020 Equity raise = 11,142,000 shares (issued for $5B Cap raise)
Remaining shares unaccounted for = 4,950,103 shares (approx.)​

Elon earned 2 tranches in Q2 2020, so we'd expect a little less than a 2% increase in the number of common shares after Elon's shares are issued (the exact number of shares to be issued was fixed in the 2018 CEO comp plan, but let's approximate his shares owing for now).

So, the remaining unaccounted for shares (4.95M) represent only about 0.52% of total shares outstanding. While this could easily represent stock-based compensation for other employees, officers and directors (who are known to be selling), but it's clearly not enough to cover Elon's CEO stock-based compensation (by a factor of 8).

The straighforward conclusion is that Tesla hasn't issued Elon's stock yet. IMO, Tesla may not issue the stock until it's unemcumbered (available for the Market), 5 yrs after those options vest. Remember, one of the terms of the CEO comp. plan is that Elon remain CEO, or Chief Product Architech, throughout the withholding period. It's not until then that the stock could be released by Tesla.

Let's watch what the share count is on the Jan 2021 SEC filing. We could also back-check the 2020-Q1 share count, since we know that Elon earned 1 tranche in June 2020.

Cheers!

Of course Elon's options have not been turned into shares yet (imagine the headlines when he sells part to cover taxes/ basis) and he has 8 or so more years on the latest plan to do so.
The point is, if a 2 for 1 split occured they could not be exercised (along with all the other option/ stock comp buckets) without hitting the 2 billion share cap. That would be a bad position for the board to put the company in.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, was that GS note a starters pistol?

More of a 'clap-back' against the "Michael-Burry-is-Short-TSLA" news. We immediately jumped back to the exact same SP as before the Burry news.

This story will run today, then slide into the background as the next "news" drops.

Cheers!

 

[AudubonB]

Someone with Bloomberg access is encouraged to share the details of their article entitled Jim Chanos Say He’d Tell Elon Musk ‘Job Well Done’

 

[CHGolferJim]

Not an expert, but it seems like Institutions are not buying this week as individual actors update and finalize their accumulation strategies in line with Dec. 18th triple witching liquidity. So buying starts to ramp up later next week and largely finishes on the 18th, with the slope of the ramp hard to predict?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Norway In November: EV Market Share At 80%, Fossils Disappearing

"Electric vehicle pioneer Norway saw plugin vehicle market share standing at 80% in November 2020, up from 60% in November 2019. Old school non-hybrid fossil vehicles saw their share decline to just 10.5% (from 27.1% a year ago). The overall auto market volume was up 25% year-on-year."​

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not an expert, but it seems like Institutions are not buying this week as individual actors update and finalize their accumulation strategies in line with Dec. 18th triple witching liquidity. So buying starts to ramp up later next week and largely finishes on the 18th, with the slope of the ramp hard to predict?

Lol, wait, the addtion date is Dec 21st, but you think the Index funds will be all done BEFORE then?!

Previous S&P 500 additions show that the largest single day of buying is the actual day of addition (go figure).

Imma call it Dec 28 for most of the buying to be done, with some funds allowed +/- 7days, and nearly all finishing up by end-of-day on Dec 31st (end of FY20).

Cheers!

 

[SO16]

Per my morning pre coffee read through:
If passed: Tesla (as a licensed all electric OEM) would finally be able to sell cars in Michigan (thus stopping the sales tax diversion occuring currently) and Tesla could directly own service facilities.
So super double plus good!

ICE OEMs would not be able to indirectly own service facilites (not that they do now, but the settlement pointed out that loophole)

Well poop... I should have held off on writing that tersely worded message to the author of the bill.

But good news for us Tesla Michiganders.

 

[AudubonB]

Just tell ‘em that your Evil Twin Brother snuck out of the basement again.

My problem is we’re triplets, and never know who is who.

 

[traxila]

They definitely don’t want this running today.

Weird that GS would post after hours yesterday. Much more effective in the am.

Hard to get a handle on their shenanigans there.

 

[Speedr117]

Someone with Bloomberg access is encouraged to share the details of their article entitled Jim Chanos Say He’d Tell Elon Musk ‘Job Well Done’

Tesla Bear Jim Chanos Says He’d Tell Elon Musk ‘Job Well Done’

Thanks for the head's up on the article!

Pro tip: Google the title, they're always other sources republishing it.

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla Bear Jim Chanos Says He’d Tell Elon Musk ‘Job Well Done’

Thanks for the head's up on the article!

Pro tip: Google the title, they're always other sources republishing it.

Not worth the read....more or less he says the same old " profit due to regulatory credits...overvalued...blah blah"

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The good news just keeps coming

Edit: @Unpilot and @Speedr117 beat me to it

 

[Xepa777]

When do we see the latest short interest data? Wonder how much effort has been put into suppressing the price the last two weeks.

 

[Pezpunk]

Tesla Bear Jim Chanos Says He’d Tell Elon Musk ‘Job Well Done’

Thanks for the head's up on the article!

Pro tip: Google the title, they're always other sources republishing it.

Not worth the read....more or less he says the same old " profit due to regulatory credits...overvalued...blah blah"

These shorts are literally incapable of admitting defeat without also grumpily adding "but i was actually right all along". Strong indication they're not really done losing money on Tesla.

Can't wait to take even more of your money in the future, Chanos!

 

[JBRR]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"Joining the S&P 500 index is especially propitious for Tesla. Among more than 1,200 mutual funds worldwide using the S&P 500 as their benchmark, $4.7 trillion, or 93% of them, disclosed no ownership of Tesla shares in their most recent regulatory filings. If Tesla represents 1% of the index, it could easily receive $47 billion from the passively managed assets tracking the benchmark."