Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

One market dynamic I don't have even the start of a mental model, is this idea of a fight for a price level here in the middle of the week. If it were Friday, and looking at the max pain charts, then market makers keeping the shares under 650 going into close makes a ton of sense to me.

There is an alternate explanation (which gets little to no attention in this Forum): today is the Tuesday before the 2nd Friday of the S&P rebalancing month (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec).

Thus, today's Close marks the entry into the "freeze" period where all components of the S&P 500 have their weights fixed (even though trading in the underlying continues, S&P DJI defines the weights as of the Close today).

These weights will be announced on Friday (2nd Fri, as usual) with the release of the pro-forma files. The 'freeze' period ends on the 3rd Fri, and the rebalance date is the following Monday (Dec 21st this year), also the day of the addition of TSLA to the index.

Posted extensive links to S&P DJI source pdf's yesterday. Browse my comment history to see them.

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

2020 is a crazy year.

TSLA has gone up 7.x.

My Cleveland Browns will have a winning record.

I'm not sure which is more surreal.

 

[Mo City]

I only have $60,000 in my Ameritrade account. I don't trust the stock market right now so I have been day trading Tesla stock waiting for the Macros to have some sort of crash so I can get back into buying some deep in the money leap options.

You remind me of someone I had a conversation with on Reddit earlier this year. When TSLA was $900 pre-split, she wanted to wait until it dipped back to $700 before buying in. I told her there were people who had the same idea 3-4 weeks prior when TSLA was mid-$500s and they wanted a dip back into the $300s.

Bob, you keep waiting on that "crash".

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla boats arrived... some of the effect in 3 smaller EU markets

 

[Krugerrand]

I can relate to this. Today my first stock purchase from 2013 became an official 100-bagger. Even though I have a high salary job and even though I didn't invest a boatload of money in that first tranche in February 2013 that money has now grown in to more than I could earn working very hard for 10 years or more. I honestly don't know how I feel about that. It's not luck, I do take pride in having understood Tesla early on and having had the cool to keep holding. But the way in which one can grow capital that quickly just holding an equity seems fundamentally wrong to me. I can't quite reconcile it.

Give it to me. You’ll feel better and so will I. Win/win!

Me too 100 bagger now. X100 Here’s hoping the second 100x comes faster. BTW, did you buy those beers yesterday?

 

[Cobos]

Looking at the second most valuable car mfg I think they might be overvalued...
There's a story from Teknikens Værld an influental swedish car magazine out today. (Teknikens Värld - Wikipedia)
The new Toyota RAV4 PHEV failed the "moose-test" at just 68km/h, while barely passing grade is set at 72km/h. (The moose test is you agressively avoid an object in the road and then try to get back into your lane, simulating what happens if a moose jumps out of the forest onto the road). The RAV4's ESP didn't kick in and the car went into a full slide. Now this can happen to cars so in itself this is not major. But the interesting part is that happened to the last Hybrid RAV4 as well, and then Toyota fixed it. Now a few years later their newest model shows the same problem and they promise to fix it in January with a software update as long as you bring the car in.
Mind you this is not a recall and Toyota PR persons assure us that the car is built to the highest safety standards.
So the worlds nr 2 car producer again sends out a car with a safety defect, and can't fix it now but in a month and you still have to bring your car in for updates. Yeah that's really state of the art.
And people wonder about Tesla's valuation...

 

[KMCC]

Tesla is up more in less than an hour during after hours trading then it went up all day

+8.12 (+1.27%)
CLOSED AT 4:00 PM ET ON DEC 08, 2020

$658.19
+8.31 (+1.28%)
DATA AS OF DEC 08, 2020 4:57 PM ET - AFTER HOURS

 

[MABMAB]

Elon did not move out of CA for bad business issues. He left because TX factory for truck is that important. He is going to sleep in the factory to make our trucks and watch over our investments. Ownership!

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

When Tesla was at $400 a share I owned as many as 70 shares. Even at that price I was still 50% cash and that felt like too much. Because I already owned too many shares I only made $20 per day trade. The day it went to $463 I sold EVERYTHING and was up $3000. I have been nibbling every day since then. Now my profits are $35 dollars a trade on average. I sell 5 shares every up $7 and buy five shares every down $7.[/QUOT

Tesla has gone up 4.6X since March 2nd (first day of trading in March)

If you had simply bought TSLA and held, that 15k would be about 69k right now.

Ok I wasn't day trading the whole time. When Tesla was below $300 in the March pandemic sell off I owned options and I made lot's of the money then. Right now I still think day trading is the way to go because of the bubble macros and
Tesla already having gone up 50% in one month. I never put 100% of my money in one stock at any time.

 

[Spacep0d]

Elon did not move out of CA for bad business issues. He left because TX factory for truck is that important. He is going to sleep in the factory to make our trucks and watch over our investments. Ownership!

It could be many reasons, but I think it would be erroneous to think 'no state tax' in TX makes zero difference to Elon when billions are at-stake. There could be a constellation of reasons. The fact that the Austin Giga is under construction is one reason. So is the fact that SpaceX has launch sites there. CA keeps wanting to shut everything down and this is not lost on Elon. Granted, we do need to take precautions but Elon has already had to battle Alameda County once. There could be other reasons that aren't so obvious depending on his personal outlook.

Either way, I think it's wrong to assume it's X and NOT Y or Z. Could be all of the above and more.

 

[bkp_duke]

Elon did not move out of CA for bad business issues. He left because TX factory for truck is that important. He is going to sleep in the factory to make our trucks and watch over our investments. Ownership!

Watch the interview. He was polite, but really did not have good things to say about CA. Basically called them overconfident and complacent.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok I wasn't day trading the whole time. When Tesla was below $300 in the March pandemic sell off I owned options and I made lot's of the money then. Right now I still think day trading is the way to go because of the bubble macros and
Tesla already having gone up 50% in one month. I never put 100% of my money in one stock at any time.

Oh, Bob.

 

[bkp_duke]

Ok I wasn't day trading the whole time. When Tesla was below $300 in the March pandemic sell off I owned options and I made lot's of the money then. Right now I still think day trading is the way to go because of the bubble macros and
Tesla already having gone up 50% in one month. I never put 100% of my money in one stock at any time.

I day trade as well, but I use it only as a method to generate more $$$ to add to my long positions in companies I believe have potential.

 

[hd-2]

Elon did not move out of CA for bad business issues. He left because TX factory for truck is that important. He is going to sleep in the factory to make our trucks and watch over our investments. Ownership!

I agree, from the interview I never got the sense that he left a state of disarray or moved permanently. He gave the impression that he wants to be in on the action at both Boca Chica and Austin.

 

[Spacep0d]

Should I buy TSLA at market price on the open and would waiting for a price adjustment be foolish? I'm TSLA long. Someone give me the push I'm looking for, lol. Dry powder is ready! I know we're at a market high but sometimes it's hard to imagine what will happen in 10 years. Am I being too cautious?

I could also buy a portion every day for some cost-averaging. Anyone want to chime in?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Give it to me. You’ll feel better and so will I. Win/win!

Me too 100 bagger now. X100 Here’s hoping the second 100x comes faster. BTW, did you buy those beers yesterday?

Are you saying the first 100X is the hardest?

 

[kanweg]

My impression is that today was not a coincidental day for the stock offering. Today was the day of the freeze. If the PM rise had continued, the market cap would have been much higher. Consequently, the ensuing frenzy would be larger. Elon doesn’t need the SP so high nor does he want that (yet) as there are negatives sides to it.

(Edit: if it had been about raising money, there are much better days ahead now)

This speculation is not an investment.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Elon did not move out of CA for bad business issues. He left because TX factory for truck is that important. He is going to sleep in the factory to make our trucks and watch over our investments. Ownership!

He'll sleep in his Cybertruck in the conference room in the factory. Russian dolls.

 

[JustMe]

Thanks for sharing. I'm starting to get the impression this forum has two distinctly different types of people:

1) Those who feel dirty or ashamed when they have to perform real work to make money.
2) Those who feel dirty or ashamed when they don't have to perform real work to make money.

Be proud and feel pretty, dear friends. There’s nothing wrong with reaping rewards of taking a chance on a scrappy underdog that set out to make the world a better place.

The people who *should* feel dirty and ashamed are oil barons, short sellers, and FUD-slingers.

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you saying the first 100X is the hardest?

Like some people need to do it the hard way, I require lots of hard practice to make it mediocre.

I think the conversation is now completely derailed and we’re in the wrong forum.