Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JohnSnowNW]

But these 2 sentences contradict each other

I don't think the term "support" needs to be attached to "monetary." Granted, I've owned 3 Tesla vehicles...so I'd assume that might count at least indirectly.

 

[FastCompany]

Could you elaborate more on your strategy? May be in a similar position next year.

One of my registered accounts was a LIRA which originated from a previous employee pension. It's been 100% TSLA since 2016. I've recently opened a RIF account (Canada) and transferred the LIRA shares in, so now I'll be required to withdraw between 4% - 6% of the RIF account next year. Value is set as of Dec 31st every year, and determines the Min-Max range of withdrawals required-permitted. The % range changes as you age.

I've added margin to a non-registered account, and will use that for expenses until I think it's a good time to sell some shares in the RIF later next year. My thinking is that towards the end of next year should be a better time to sell shares in that account, as hopefully the shares will have increased in value, meaning I can sell less shares to meet the 4% minimum (of Dec 31 value) required withdrawal $.

 

[ABCTG]

View attachment 617108
final push

Looking for a link to this, cant find one.

Do see one year free 1-year Premium Connectivity Trial on Inventory New Model 3 and Model Y

 

[PKOttawa]

Did you time travel to the future?

Because that was a popular thing to say in 2017. We're still waiting.

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

 

[dl003]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

Short TSLA.

 

[phantasms]

Can someone say "push with everything you got" for 500K????

View attachment 617102

Where is this from? My sister ordered a Y last week and picking it up next week. Thanks!

 

[canoemore]

It would be interesting to plot care bear post frequency against price movements. Perhaps there is a discernible signal in those data.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

Verbal commitments and throwing money at the problem will do little to help them. Wake me up when someone actually releases a product that is cost competitive, spec competitive, and they can actually make money on. Do a little research on availability in Europe before spouting Tesla's in ability to compete. They sell every car they can make...at a profit.

Dan

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sandy Munro explains how a flat plate cooling system at the bottom of Tesla's new battery pack design wicks heat away from new (tabless) 4680 cells from the bottom, instead of from the side of the bty cell can as with older 18650 and 2170 (tabbed) bty cells: (starts at 1m51s)

Cheers!

 

[PKOttawa]

On the surface, this is correct.

But when you do a proper deep dive, there are so many flaws in this reasoning.

1) We've been told that ICE-manuf "EVs are coming" for . . . . nearly a decade. Those EVs that have actually shown up have been woefully inferior to what Tesla makes by any reasonable yardstick (efficiency, range, power).

2) A core premise of your thesis above is that there are plenty of batteries to go around for everyone to produce EVs with no problems. This is patently false, and is why Tesla has such a large advantage over everyone else. They realize that battery supply is the limiting factor, and have taken a multi-pronged approach to solve that problem. A) they buy up every battery they can get their hands on (LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL). B) they buy up battery start-ups with good technology with the goal of producing their own batteries (Maxwell tech, etc.), now known as the Roadrunner prototype production line in Fremont.

3) Traditional ICE manufacturers have sold-off the bulk of their innovating power decades ago. They now rely entirely upon sub-contractors to build major components. This approach is woefully inadequate for competing with a vertically-integrated company like Tesla. Not only is Tesla 5-7 years ahead of the other manufacturers in software, battery chemistry and pack design, and manufacturing processes, but they are accelerating that lead. The other companies are not actually gaining any ground on Tesla.

TL,DR version: Tesla has a laser focus and execution on their goals. Everyone else still approaches EVs as a side business and are not giving it proper attention.

I think I’ve hit a nerve and I definitely don’t want to be a Tesla party pooper..

I’m an engineer by trade and am a very active investor in individual stocks - the Performance MY I bought this year is the best car I’ve ever owned! But I digress and I’m glad we can have a discussion about the future of Tesla!

To address your points!

1.) Yes talk is cheap! However, you can’t deny what is happening in the industry today. Volvo is committed to moving all electric.. Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has committed a $11.5B spend on EV and the Mach E and Hummer EV are coming out this year. Most if not all manufactures are realizing the advantages of electrification and it is happening!

2.) I am definitely not a battery expert - but they are essentially a cathode and anode in an electrolyte. There is space for improvements and the recent solid state developments in batteries are quite promising (and not owned by Tesla). I find it hard that there would be any scarcity in battery supply - this is simply a manufacturing issue with no reason (that I can think of) of why production couldn’t ramp up with demand. It’s not feasible that Tesla would try to “buy” all the world’s battery production to keep them away from competitors even if this was possible.

3.) Saying all other car manufactures don’t have the capability for engineering or manufacturing is not true! They’ve been at it for a much longer time and it’ll be hard for Tesla to match the build quality of Audi and Mercedes EV.

Tesla does have a lead.. they also have real world self driving feedback that other manufactures don’t have.. This lead is why Tesla will have a great 2021. I think everyone can agree there are other EVs on the market today and there will be many more a year from now. They will all have a version of self driving, have 300-600 mile range, same performance and tech. What will Tesla’s advantage be at that point and how can Tesla maintain the majority of the market share they will need to justify the market cap.

I know it’s not a favourable scenario.. but as other manufactures EV sales start to climb the market will realize Tesla can’t maintain the market share needed to justify the astronomical share price.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think I’ve hit a nerve and I definitely don’t want to be a Tesla party pooper..

I’m an engineer by trait and am a very active investor in individual stocks - the Performance MY I bought this year is the best car I’ve ever owned! But I digress and I’m glad we can have a discussion about the future of Tesla!

To address your points!

1.) Yes talk is cheap! However, you can’t deny what is happening in the industry today. Volvo is committed to moving all electric.. Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has committed a $11.5B spend on EV and the Mach E and Hummer EV are coming out this year. Most if not all manufactures are realizing the advantages of electrification and it is happening!

2.) I am definitely not a battery expert - but they are essentially a cathode and anode in an electrolyte. There is space for improvements and the recent solid state developments in batteries are quite promising (and not owned by Tesla). I find it hard that there would be any scarcity in battery supply - this is simply a manufacturing issue with no reason (that I can think of) of why production couldn’t ramp up with demand. It’s not feasible that Tesla would try to “buy” all the world’s battery production to keep them away from competitors even if this was possible.

3.) Saying all other car manufactures don’t have the capability for engineering or manufacturing is not true! They’ve been at it for a much longer time and it’ll be hard for Tesla to match the build quality of Audi and Mercedes EV.

Tesla does have a lead.. they also have real world self driving feedback that other manufactures don’t have.. This lead is why Tesla will have a great 2021. I think everyone can agree there are other EVs on the market today and there will be many more a year from now. They will all have a version of self driving, have 300-600 mile range, same performance and tech. What will Tesla’s advantage be at that point and how can Tesla maintain the majority of the market share they will need to justify the market cap.

I know it’s not a favourable scenario.. but as other manufactures EV sales start to climb the market will realize Tesla can’t maintain the market share needed to justify the astronomical share price.

1) LOL
2) LOL
3) LOL

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Where is this from? My sister ordered a Y last week and picking it up next week. Thanks!

Tesla offers one year of free Supercharging to incentivize deliveries in record quarter attempt - Electrek

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

For me, figuring it out is easy. Here is the decision tree:

Do you need cash now?
--No. Then HODL Tesla shares.
--Yes. Then borrow cash and HODL Tesla shares.

I suspect that folks tempted to sell shares now are forgetting two facts:

1) This company is historic. There has never been anything like it, with a combination of...

• genius, workaholic, polymath CEO
• global braintrust of top-1% engineering talent
• corporate mission and other incentives attracting more top talent
• corporate culture driving rapid relentless innovation and improvements
• multiple, huge, accelerating technology leads
• vertical integration and talent/tech sharing with rocket geniuses
• gargantuan addressable markets (global transportation and energy)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market segments (robotaxis, trucking, solar roofs, virtual power-plants)
• vast untapped or barely tapped market regions (China, India, South America, Middle East, Africa)
• doubling product line in the next few years (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster2, "world cars")
• doubling (or more) production capacity in the next few years (Giga Shanghai, Berlin, Austin)
• unlimited future opportunities for the engineering braintrust (home HVAC, air and underground transport, on Earth and Mars)
• fanatical, evangelical, exponentially growing customer base
• unprecedented social tailwinds (accelerating climate change, growing government incentives)

Bears scoff at the current stock price and the idea that it will 10x again. "That would be a $6 trillion market cap! When has that ever happened?!" Well, several times in history, adjusted for inflation. But Tesla is making history.

2) This stock has turned a corner. HODLers endured 5 years of price stagnation and some gut-wrenching drops. Some folks might be traumatized and think the stock is still risky. But TSLA's future will not be like the past, because...

• major index inclusions are incoming (S&P 500 and 100)
• bond rating upgrades are incoming (if the raters want to be taken seriously)
• at least 15% of available shares are disappearing permanently into index funds
• up to 22% of available shares are disappearing likely permanently into benchmarked funds
• FUD will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• clueless or dishonest analysts will have no or little effect on those shareholders
• Tesla's "fortress balance sheet" now has $20 billion in cash
• all bear theses (unprofitability, inexperience, no demand, competition) have been discredited except excessive valuation
• this last bear thesis will be discredited by the imminent FSD rollout, blowout Q4 earnings, and new products and production capacity coming next year
• Tesla is now sandbagging their guidance to consistently beat expectations

FUD and abusive analysts will continue, but clearly they are losing effect. Volatility may continue, but so will the upward trend. The global market is waking up to TSLA. Usually when picking a stock, you must choose between safety and huge potential. TSLA offers both, in my studied opinion.

OMG, great info: Saved it to a notepad for future viewing! It's extremely hard to keep track of everything Tesla is doing, I think you missed a few items in your list of items making Tesla historic

• Dojo/Neural Net (Big Data, Even for the freaking Windshield wipers!)
• Giga/TeraFactrory (The machine that makes the machine and GigaPress)
  
• Material Science ('Claims to have designed a new silicon', and 'developing new alloys that enable the larger casting')
• Custom Chip Maker (Created their own FSD Hardware)
• Tesla Insurance (Tesla Insurance could potentially be America's biggest auto insurer)
  
• Tesla in-house software (Tesla replacing Salesforce with its own sales software)
  
• Expansive, ever-growing charging network (Tesla's vast, multinational Supercharger network is a huge competitive advantage)

When the stock was $100/sh I thought it would one day be a $2,000/sh company (Split adjusted pricing) but now I think even that is way too low. Cant wait for the new numbers from Cathy Wood/Ark to come out!

 

[CaliBear1]

I can't wait to see what the Model S refresh will look like. Hopefully they will take some styling cues from Roadster 2.

 

[UncaNed]

Smells like something good is coming to Models S & X!

CNBC: Tesla tells employees Model S and X production will shut down for 18 days

An unbiased story by Lora Kolodny. I assume its for some sort of improvements. This makes me very happy because if this S&P 500 thing goes my way, a new model X will be in my future and my old model X will be in my nephew's future!

I'm hoping for cast chassis and other goodies. I'm dreaming of V2G, but don't really expect it, V2G is just my thing.

 

[Tachyon]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

looks like either you are new , naive to this Electrification charade perpetrated by the legacy auto or the most optimistic person in the world.
Thanks for your post, I haven’t laughed so hard in such a long time.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

...They will all have a version of self driving, have 300-600 mile range, same performance and tech. What will Tesla’s advantage be at that point and how can Tesla maintain the majority of the market share they will need to justify the market cap.

300-600 mi range and same performance is just not happening at a reasonable price unless they built battery factories long ago, market cap of 2T will be justified by the end of next year
& the mission of Tesla is solely to increase the speed of competition
Market cap shouldn’t be a consideration but a bonus & enabler of growth(& competition) if it is high.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think I’ve hit a nerve and I definitely don’t want to be a Tesla party pooper..

I’m an engineer by trade and am a very active investor in individual stocks - the Performance MY I bought this year is the best car I’ve ever owned! But I digress and I’m glad we can have a discussion about the future of Tesla!

To address your points!

1.) Yes talk is cheap! However, you can’t deny what is happening in the industry today. Volvo is committed to moving all electric.. Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has committed a $11.5B spend on EV and the Mach E and Hummer EV are coming out this year. Most if not all manufactures are realizing the advantages of electrification and it is happening!

2.) I am definitely not a battery expert - but they are essentially a cathode and anode in an electrolyte. There is space for improvements and the recent solid state developments in batteries are quite promising (and not owned by Tesla). I find it hard that there would be any scarcity in battery supply - this is simply a manufacturing issue with no reason (that I can think of) of why production couldn’t ramp up with demand. It’s not feasible that Tesla would try to “buy” all the world’s battery production to keep them away from competitors even if this was possible.

3.) Saying all other car manufactures don’t have the capability for engineering or manufacturing is not true! They’ve been at it for a much longer time and it’ll be hard for Tesla to match the build quality of Audi and Mercedes EV.

Tesla does have a lead.. they also have real world self driving feedback that other manufactures don’t have.. This lead is why Tesla will have a great 2021. I think everyone can agree there are other EVs on the market today and there will be many more a year from now. They will all have a version of self driving, have 300-600 mile range, same performance and tech. What will Tesla’s advantage be at that point and how can Tesla maintain the majority of the market share they will need to justify the market cap.

I know it’s not a favourable scenario.. but as other manufactures EV sales start to climb the market will realize Tesla can’t maintain the market share needed to justify the astronomical share price.

This post could have been summed up in 4 words “The competition is coming”....

 

[bkp_duke]

Other manufactures weren’t even considering EV’s in 2017...

Now Volvo is committing to electrify all models.. Porsche has released models, Volkswagen is outselling Tesla in Europe with the ID.3, Ford has announced $11.5B in spending for EVs and is releasing the Mach E and EV Hummer this year.. the list goes on.

You’re right this isn’t 2017!

Gordon, is that you?