Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Closing the S/X might not be a huge refresh/upgrade as some are thinking after all (for example new battery options, design refresh, etc.) but when they reopen in 18 days the cars coming out may be just the same ones as now, only they'll be coming out faster? In other words, perhaps the team have worked out some ways to improve the production process here and there, and now they want to take advantage of the holiday period to implement these changes?

I remember a few years back, either it was in an interview or in an earnings call, Elon talked about his vision for the "juggernaut factory" and was talking about how to make everything as compact as possible with the manufacturing. I remember trying to imitate his first principles thinking and I came up with the concept of "cm of car per minute" as a unit for over all production. In other words, think of the factory as a black box. Raw materials and components go in one end, finished cars come out the other end. If there is a conveyor belt at the end that the cars come out on, how fast is that belt moving? That's the number of centimeters of car produced per second/minute. You want that value as high as possible, and my thinking is maybe found some good improvements and fixes?

To poke a slight hole in that theory, they're already making under the capacity of the S/X lines. There wouldn't really be a huge benefit to update the lines to make production quicker....unless they had a large price cut planned. I doubt they would really be able to drop costs and realize efficiency improvements without fundamental changes to the cars themselves such as the battery cells and packs as well as realizing interior costs reductions by beginning to share some aspects with the 3/Y. They've had years now of optimizing the S/X production lines to improve costs and realize efficiency improvements. I personally do not think there's anything left to gain from optimizations without fundamental changes.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Lol, I say do it now (ur wife will love the extra gift before the Holidays). Telsa will almost certainly need to book at least some of their ~$1.7B Valuation Allowance (VA) in 2021 Q1 since its now "more likely than not" that Tesla will be profitable going forward. Will have a big impact on their books.

Further, in 2020 Q1 Tesla should have much lower interest payment expense, since they announced that at least some of the $5B Cap Raise will go to paying down debt. They likely were paying more than 0.8% on those loans, but that's all the dilution it took to raise $5B with TSLA at current levels.

Enjoy ur holidays! There's always the FSD upgrade (if you haven't done it yet) for Q1...

Cheers!

Thanks. Got the FSD upgrade on day one. No point of a Tesla without FSD imho.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

@BlackS , By Everyone, I take that to be Everyone on TMC Investment Thread. People like @PKOttawa are much much more common for the masses that do not yet understand Tesla, and I am glad that he has posted here to show us the other side of the coin. The masses are spoon-fed FUD'n dribble on all things Tesla by the talking host heads on finance shows and proclaimed expert self serving analysts. And as for the masses, very few are invested in individual stocks at all. The following link is to Pew Research Centre March 2020 research report which found only 14% of the US population invests in individual stocks. Therefore we are talking about a tiny fraction of a tiny fraction of Everone that has in depth knowledge of Tesla. Knowledge is power, and as a result those with knowledge will prosper. No fear here.
More than half of U.S. households have some investment in the stock market

Well...when i mentioned "EVERYONE", i meant the masses of all the YOLO'ers, quick buck makers, "I heard $TSLA is going to the moon....", "Someone at McDonalds told me that $TSLA is going up" type of gamblers. This is why i think there is a small chance this will not end like everyone is expecting it to.
I like to think that us investors that 'understand' Tesla on the TMC investment thread have enough knowledge to understand that once the smoke clears and these speculators/gamblers get flushed out, $TSLA will settle into a nice base that it had done previously, before breaking up to the upside in a violent manner.
However, this is $TSLA after all and what do I know, except to HODL and buy with every single penny i find in couches.

Can't wait for Monday

 

[Zero CO2]

Some Anecdotal Evidence on Model S demand

I placed order for Model S LR+ in Late October 2020... plan was to trade in 2017 MS ... 4 days before delivery Tesla re-evaluated my trade -in ... lowered trade significantly ...so i told delivery person cancel order ... was on TMC Model S Delivery thread .. told a poster that was getting anxious that he still had no VIN from NJ Delivery Center to call Brooklyn Delivery center where my cancelled order was ready to go ... gave him VIN and my Model S was already gone ... same day I cancelled .... demand problem ? I think not ... i guess i will be getting a PLAID MS after all

also i did my part for q4 deliveries ... for someone else

 

[Artful Dodger]

Closing the S/X might not be a huge refresh/upgrade as some are thinking after all (for example new battery options, design refresh, etc.) but when they reopen in 18 days the cars coming out may be just the same ones as now, only they'll be coming out faster? In other words, perhaps the team have worked out some ways to improve the production process here and there, and now they want to take advantage of the holiday period to implement these changes?

I remember a few years back, either it was in an interview or in an earnings call, Elon talked about his vision for the "juggernaut factory" and was talking about how to make everything as compact as possible with the manufacturing. I remember trying to imitate his first principles thinking and I came up with the concept of "cm of car per minute" as a unit for over all production. In other words, think of the factory as a black box. Raw materials and components go in one end, finished cars come out the other end. If there is a conveyor belt at the end that the cars come out on, how fast is that belt moving? That's the number of centimeters of car produced per second/minute. You want that value as high as possible, and my thinking is maybe found some good improvements and fixes?

Nawh, mate, Tesla already has 90K installed S/X production capacity at Fremont, but they're only building them at about a 75K-ish run-rate right now.

It's an upgrade, for sure. 99% likely to be the upgrade they been talking about for 18 mths (since 'Plaid' stormed the Nürburgring in Summer 2019). Only question is, how much new tech will this upgrade involve. Potential new features:

• Tri-motor drivetrain (most likely feature)
• Rear aluminum subframe casting (might be assoc. w. dual mtr rear drive)
• Front aluminum subframe (a bigger "if" since "Raven" has SRPM front mtr)
• Integrated cast AL bty pack w. 4680 cells (would be great; maybe not ready?)

So this may be a 'hybrid' upgrade, done in stages, until we see the reborn Model S/X emerge, fully-formed, from its Holiday chrysalis.

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

They may have run out of low hanging fruit for issues to fix and the issues they have now are more complex and take more time to fix

As far as I can tell from watching the videos, there are two main fixes needed. 1) Get in the proper turn lane when there are two consecutive turns. 2) Fix the diving into exit lanes and spaces between parked cars. I think the #2 is the hardest because it's been there forever. Sometimes the correction is quite violent (in AP. I haven't seen this in the FSD videos, but I also haven't seen videos of anyone driving by the kind of left turn exit that triggers the violent behaviour).

 

[bballshinobi]

I feel bad for any investors that buy into that garbage and sell on worry of S/X demand. It's so damn obvious why they're shutting down. Just line it up with the timelines being given for S/X around the world right now (8-12 weeks). They're selling off any inventory this quarter and giving a time gap to announce/ship refreshed S/X so that people that took delivery of theirs in Dec won't get butthurt (if they're anything like Fred though, they'll still complain haha)

I just took delivery of my X, and I am definitely butt hurt if a refresh comes out next year. Tesla will feel my wrath. I will order it right away lol

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Can someone say "push with everything you got" for 500K????

 

[dc_h]

Don't see that at all. I think the move is precipitated by the outright fact that other than RoadRunner, which is not Elon's personal forte, the engineering focus is now pivoting to getting CyberTruck and Semi up and running. I think Hawthorne and Fremont are established and the level of oversight/contribution needed is much reduced. The new SS fabrication will likely induce another production hell, as these are entirely new products/production lines.
Shuttling between Austin and Bolsa Chica without a third leg to CA and back will allow Elon to concentrate his time in Texas, and force California to operate more independently with less demand on Elon.
A beneficial, and obvious move, in all.

Starship will get a lot of attn this year. Sounds
Like they are stepping up FSD work in Austin this year and software development in Austin is also expanding.

 

[jerry33]

I just took delivery of my X, and I am definitely butt hurt if a refresh comes out next year. Tesla will feel my wrath. I will order it right away lol

The most satisfaction you can get out of any high-tech product, whether it is a computer, a phone, an audio system, or a Tesla is to purchase it right after an upgrade because there is always the possibility of a new upgrade. If purchasing right after an upgrade isn't possible, the next best course of action is to purchase the best you can afford (for your purpose) and never look at another write-up, forum, or ad until what you have purchased no longer does what you bought it to do.

 

[FireMedic]

This! The cliff notes version is that FSD Europe is gonna clear a legit runway to a multi Trill. valuation in the next 5 years. (My words, not theirs).

Edit: I highly recommend following this channel. SparkSpread has a lot of unique, high quality, informative, and well researched TSLA content.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Thanks. Got the FSD upgrade on day one. No point of a Tesla without FSD imho.

While I support FSD, I have not opted for it on either of the two vehicles (3 if you include the Cybertruck) that it was available on. I need a vehicle I can drive long distance (in the Midwest) and there is no alternative other than Tesla.

 

[heltok]

Indonesia has improved a lot in the last 30 years in terms of democratic government, and the rule of law.

What you say about corruption was true 30 years ago, and the military had a lot of influence on business.
I'm not sure how much has changed.

One funny thing when I was over there working in the 90s, a lift in the Antara building would always stop on a particular floor, Suharto's son had an office on that floor. I bet the lift doesn't stop there today.

I am in Indonesia now. Things are chaing rapidly with the new president and his Omnibus law that will rapidly simplify foreign investment in Indonesia. If you want to dig deeper into what is happening in Indonesia, I recommend these guys, I have met them IRL and they answered all my questions without any:

FWIW if you want to escape the virus/lockdown, Indonesia is open(with $500 and a PCR test you get 2+4months visa to sit out the virus). Restaurants, gyms, beaches etc are open and people are generally pretty chill and having fun:

(bule=foreigner)

 

[gabeincal]

While I support FSD, I have not opted for it on either of the two vehicles (3 if you include the Cybertruck) that it was available on. I need a vehicle I can drive long distance (in the Midwest) and there is no alternative other than Tesla.

But these 2 sentences contradict each other

 

[2daMoon]

WhatdaFUD?

Suddenly media folks start going on about Elon moving to Texas, when he had applied for a Texas driver license months ago.
Next, the talking heads begin to interpret this as meaning that Tesla is moving to Texas. (which may happen, but I haven't seen anything official.)

The big question now is how the media will react when they find out about the company changing its name to ...

TEXLA​

That ought to get some hoots and hollers, huh? (just planting the seed for the FUDsters to nurture and grow, wink wink, nudge nudge)

Anyway, it all makes me wonder if the misinformation campaign has a building effect that works something like a pennant pattern on a stock chart. So that as the FUD funding begins to run out there will eventually be a breakout of good news about TSLA.

Anyway, I ain't skeered just because I'm HODL

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Re the performance upgrade other poster mentioned. Have they ever done an end year/quarter sale. Thinkin a little price reduction might help me decide. .

 

[JustMe]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyfjwXo9hj
The raising of SN9

Looks like a job for a Cybertruck and a tow hitch

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Re the performance upgrade other poster mentioned. Have they ever done an end year/quarter sale. Thinkin a little price reduction might help me decide. .

Even a 10% discount I’d be all over it without hesitation.

 

[mickificki]

final push

 

[neverdone]

Some Anecdotal Evidence on Model S demand

I placed order for Model S LR+ in Late October 2020... plan was to trade in 2017 MS ... 4 days before delivery Tesla re-evaluated my trade -in ... lowered trade significantly ...so i told delivery person cancel order ... was on TMC Model S Delivery thread .. told a poster that was getting anxious that he still had no VIN from NJ Delivery Center to call Brooklyn Delivery center where my cancelled order was ready to go ... gave him VIN and my Model S was already gone ... same day I cancelled .... demand problem ? I think not ... i guess i will be getting a PLAID MS after all

also i did my part for q4 deliveries ... for someone else

I was also thinking of trading in my 2016 X P90D. The trade-in value from Tesla declined by $3500 in a week so we decided to wait until end of first quarter. We had not placed an order yet. Not doing much driving anyway. Maybe good reason to wait.