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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This will only take 1500 or so only away from q4. It will hurt q1 more. But probably worth it if it is a factory upgrade and refresh
I doubt they could delver many Model S/X made between December 24th and December 31st.
We are only talking about 1 weeks worth of Q4 production.
So it doesn't have a major impact of Q4 production and deliveries.
if retooling results in a higher production run rate, they will catch-up over the course of 2021.
Overall, this is a good time for this kind of shutdown.
We are only talking about 1 weeks worth of Q4 production.
So it doesn't have a major impact of Q4 production and deliveries.
if retooling results in a higher production run rate, they will catch-up over the course of 2021.
Overall, this is a good time for this kind of shutdown.
Indonesia has improved a lot in the last 30 years in terms of democratic government, and the rule of law.
What you say about corruption was true 30 years ago, and the military had a lot of influence on business.
I'm not sure how much has changed.
One funny thing when I was over there working in the 90s, a lift in the Antara building would always stop on a particular floor, Suharto's son had an office on that floor. I bet the lift doesn't stop there today.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I can't wait to see what the Model S refresh will look like. Hopefully they will take some styling cues from Roadster 2.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I don't believe you believe that. If "this forum offers no value to swing traders" then it offers no value to anybody.
It won’t take anything away from Q4 deliveries. Unless you believe they would produce 1500 S/X after the 24th that will be delivered by 31st, which I don’t believe anyone would think that possible unless they have a lineup outside Fremont.
That's a really good question. As I understand it, Indonesia is by far the biggest nickel producer. 4x or 5x Australia and Canada, which produce more or less the same amount. Australia and Canada do have substantial reserves, but I don't know how economic they are.
If you want to take a look at it by company instead of country, Vale is the largest nickel producer and has mines in Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, and New Caledonia. Its Indonesia operations are a joint venture with Sumitomo Metals & Mining and the government of Indonesia.
Sounds like they have so many 3s and Ys to deliver, that they figured they'd be better off shutting down X and S so they can have some of those people help with deliveries. The number of extra 3s and Ys they can deliver with this help will be greater than the number of S and X they could build and deliver.
I'd think they would explicitly say they were upgrading the line if the shutdown were for upgrades as I believe they have said that in the past.
I'd think they would explicitly say they were upgrading the line if the shutdown were for upgrades as I believe they have said that in the past.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Yes, exactly. They never really came up with a business model that worked, but it could have if they wanted it to. They could have started not selling the batteries with the cars, rather renting them instead. That would have made the cars much more affordable. It would have also enabled simple swapping when desirable, e.g. normally using a short range battery around town and then swapping for a long range one for road trips. Variable pricing. Upgrades as the technology improves. Never have to think about dissatisfied owners whose batteries lose range early. Lots of advantages. The big disadvantages would be around the logistics and expense of battery pack distribution.
Anyway, they could have reasonably gone that way if they wanted to. But perhaps even then they knew they would eventually go the iPhone route and make the batteries part of the structure and very difficult to remove or replace. And water under the bridge now.
That logic doesn't really compute. If it was for helping deliver 3's and Y's, it would only be from the 24th to the 31st. This production shutdown is going all the way to Jan 11th. If you're not wanting to Osborne any S/X sales for the rest of the Dec, the last thing you would do is put in the email that the production lines are being updated.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Interesting indeed. I wonder if there might be a "Christmas Break" shutdown and upgrade on the S/X line (meep, meep...)
Lol, nailed it (and I'm not even on Elon's Distribution List)
Main Takeaways:
- Tesla will shut down production lines for its high-end, but older, electric vehicles -- the Model S sedan and Model X SUV -- for 18 days beginning on December 24th, according to an email to factory employees seen by CNBC
- It's not clear what Tesla intends to do with its Model S and X lines during the holiday shutdown.
Subject: S/X Holiday Shutdown
Hi Team,
The SX lines will be shut down for the holidays starting Dec. 24th and returning Jan. 11th.
We would like you to take the opportunity to refresh or spend time with your family, so Tesla will be giving you a full week pay for the week of Jan. 4th. There will also be limited paid opportunities for you to support other shops or volunteer for deliveries during some of this time.
If you would like to volunteer for deliveries for Dec. 26th -- Dec. 31st, or support other shops from Dec. 28th - Dec. 30th, please use the survey below to let us know your preference. We will do our best to accommodate your requests, but preferences are not guaranteed and will be granted on a first come first serve basis.
Hi Team,
The SX lines will be shut down for the holidays starting Dec. 24th and returning Jan. 11th.
We would like you to take the opportunity to refresh or spend time with your family, so Tesla will be giving you a full week pay for the week of Jan. 4th. There will also be limited paid opportunities for you to support other shops or volunteer for deliveries during some of this time.
Dec. 23rd - last day of work before shutdown
Dec. 24th-25th - Paid holidays*
Dec. 28th-30th - Unpaid time off (may use PTO**), support deliveries or other shops.
Dec. 31st-Jan. 1st - Paid Holiday*
Jan. 4th - 8th - Paid time off (40 hours)
Jan. 11th - return to work
Dec. 24th-25th - Paid holidays*
Dec. 28th-30th - Unpaid time off (may use PTO**), support deliveries or other shops.
Dec. 31st-Jan. 1st - Paid Holiday*
Jan. 4th - 8th - Paid time off (40 hours)
Jan. 11th - return to work
If you would like to volunteer for deliveries for Dec. 26th -- Dec. 31st, or support other shops from Dec. 28th - Dec. 30th, please use the survey below to let us know your preference. We will do our best to accommodate your requests, but preferences are not guaranteed and will be granted on a first come first serve basis.
"Plaid" is coming, folks...
Cheers!
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j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Is there anybody (much more informed than me) that has a sensible estimate of just how many new larger 4680 cells they may have produced, and what percentage of current S/X they could fill with those cells?
It would be amazing to see an S/X refresh with new cells.
I suspect elon will actually genuinely stick to his mantra of no yearly update, but regular minor changes. I can see the 2021 model S/X maybe having some new paint options, maybe a chrome delete, maybe new cells allowing faster charging and longer range, but I strongly suspect that the S/X body design or interior is not about to change.
It would be amazing to see an S/X refresh with new cells.
I suspect elon will actually genuinely stick to his mantra of no yearly update, but regular minor changes. I can see the 2021 model S/X maybe having some new paint options, maybe a chrome delete, maybe new cells allowing faster charging and longer range, but I strongly suspect that the S/X body design or interior is not about to change.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
No, swapping batteries is not viable and can never be viable. I for one would not have bought my Model 3 without a battery. Batteries included please.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I suspect #1. But I bet we see some restricted functionality at first of parts that don't work as well as they like.
They may have run out of low hanging fruit for issues to fix and the issues they have now are more complex and take more time to fix
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, I say do it now (ur wife will love the extra gift before the Holidays). Telsa will almost certainly need to book at least some of their ~$1.7B Valuation Allowance (VA) in 2021 Q1 since its now "more likely than not" that Tesla will be profitable going forward. Will have a big impact on their books.
Further, in 2020 Q1 Tesla should have much lower interest payment expense, since they announced that at least some of the $5B Cap Raise will go to paying down debt. They likely were paying more than 0.8% on those loans, but that's all the dilution it took to raise $5B with TSLA at current levels.
Enjoy ur holidays! There's always the FSD upgrade (if you haven't done it yet) for Q1...
Cheers!
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Closing the S/X might not be a huge refresh/upgrade as some are thinking after all (for example new battery options, design refresh, etc.) but when they reopen in 18 days the cars coming out may be just the same ones as now, only they'll be coming out faster? In other words, perhaps the team have worked out some ways to improve the production process here and there, and now they want to take advantage of the holiday period to implement these changes?
I remember a few years back, either it was in an interview or in an earnings call, Elon talked about his vision for the "juggernaut factory" and was talking about how to make everything as compact as possible with the manufacturing. I remember trying to imitate his first principles thinking and I came up with the concept of "cm of car per minute" as a unit for over all production. In other words, think of the factory as a black box. Raw materials and components go in one end, finished cars come out the other end. If there is a conveyor belt at the end that the cars come out on, how fast is that belt moving? That's the number of centimeters of car produced per second/minute. You want that value as high as possible, and my thinking is maybe found some good improvements and fixes?
I remember a few years back, either it was in an interview or in an earnings call, Elon talked about his vision for the "juggernaut factory" and was talking about how to make everything as compact as possible with the manufacturing. I remember trying to imitate his first principles thinking and I came up with the concept of "cm of car per minute" as a unit for over all production. In other words, think of the factory as a black box. Raw materials and components go in one end, finished cars come out the other end. If there is a conveyor belt at the end that the cars come out on, how fast is that belt moving? That's the number of centimeters of car produced per second/minute. You want that value as high as possible, and my thinking is maybe found some good improvements and fixes?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
At battery day Elon said 1 year to get to 10 gwh of 4680 production
If we stick with 100 kwh packs 10gwh gets you 100,000 cars
Which easily covers more than the current annual production of S/X.
(of course Plaid might well be > 100 kwh)
Have cash ready to buy at dips. The next weeks will probably be volatile
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