Thank you to you and your brethren for these talking points that have continued to suppress the TSLA stock these past years, we appreciate the discount you have afforded us! Feel free to continue shouting these from the rooftops so we can continue.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Thank you to you and your brethren for these talking points that have continued to suppress the TSLA stock these past years, we appreciate the discount you have afforded us! Feel free to continue shouting these from the rooftops so we can continue.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
I can appreciate your skepticism. However:
1. Tesla is outselling everyone in every market except the EU...and I believe the US and Chinese market are FAR, FAR more important.
2. The reason Tesla is investing in GFs, and still having to source batteries from other companies, is literally due to scarcity of batteries. It's also the same reason everyone other than Tesla is producing compliance numbers of BEVs.
SSBs are a buzzword. Tesla's battery day was all about reducing costs...there's a reason SSB announcements are coming without firm timelines or costs.
3. I don't honestly know what this has to do with anything, I don't know what panel gaps and paint has to do with core battery tech.
After #3 I feel llike you're ignoring all of the current ICEV manufacturers...how exactly do you explain that we have more than one ICEV manufacturer...if none have an advantage over the other?
Finally, Tesla is not just an automotive manufacturer...and, honestly, I question your reasoning ability.
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A little break from the back and forth about next week's TSLA performance.
Iphone supplier, Wistron's factory was looted and burned in India today, due to some salary dispute.
Nothing against India, but I don't think India is ready for a Tesla giga factory. India has a elite class that is on par, of not better than that of industrial countries. But India also has displayed some of the worst behaviors . On average, it is a much worst choice than say, a second factory in China.
China has long term vision and is willing to finance, support the Tesla with vast domestic market so the local manufactures can compete with world best and strength their local brands. India still is China 40 years ago, high tariff, inward looking, everything.
Iphone supplier, Wistron's factory was looted and burned in India today, due to some salary dispute.
Nothing against India, but I don't think India is ready for a Tesla giga factory. India has a elite class that is on par, of not better than that of industrial countries. But India also has displayed some of the worst behaviors . On average, it is a much worst choice than say, a second factory in China.
China has long term vision and is willing to finance, support the Tesla with vast domestic market so the local manufactures can compete with world best and strength their local brands. India still is China 40 years ago, high tariff, inward looking, everything.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Yeah, stupidity is a nerve of mine.
If you feel this strongly, put your money where your mouth is. Short Tesla.
The rest of us have made our bets, that have paid out handsomely.
Easy : throw some batteries and a motor together and build a car
Hard : making this car inexpensive, reliable, efficient, and attractive to consumers. Scaling production. Making money on each car.
Hard : making this car inexpensive, reliable, efficient, and attractive to consumers. Scaling production. Making money on each car.
@PKOttawa
Normally the care bears get on my ignore list immediately and without comment.
But this is so bad that it is humorous (a la the Sharknado of B-movies)
For me, you will disappear tomorrow...
Normally the care bears get on my ignore list immediately and without comment.
But this is so bad that it is humorous (a la the Sharknado of B-movies)
For me, you will disappear tomorrow...
He’s trying to warn us, because he cares about us. /s
Thank you for your concern! I think we all know what to do though.
Sorry you didn’t get that job at Tesla or SpaceX, don’t feel bad, only the best of the best get there apparently. I tried and didn’t get in, so I bought the shares and made more than the wages there. Still sucks not getting accepted though, but I’ll live.
See you in 2022, when the share price will reflect the reality even better than now!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Did we read the same article?
Speculating about demand problems as reason for the shutdown when it's much more likely to be a refresh/redesign.
Including irrelevant negativity in the article and at the same time ignoring the huge success and growth that Tesla has experienced during a very difficult year:
It's the usual negatively slanted articles Kolodny spits out.
I agree with the advantages, but disagree with importance of the disadvantages as I don’t sweat those,except for the need of additional batteries and the expense thereof. But given that Tesla now installs battery packs with the Superchargers, they are effectively in a similar situation. However, with charging could have been much quicker than now (Nio’s system could be much improved and quicker, e.g. with a drive through set up and with the car or stall taking control of the car to position the car correctly.
The batteries in the Supercharger could be part of the Tesla energy network, earning them money for stabilizing the grid and storing wind/solar. Plus it would totally eliminate two major issues: people not having a location to charge and the time spent on charging. For the consumer the sticker price would be lower, giving a competitive advantage there. While this may look as a disadvantage to the car company, it results in a lifetime of recurring income, that is higher than with a direct sale. Especially with the longevity of electric vehicles.
While I see major production advantages and cost saving for the Tesla concept of the battery being a structural part of the car, this may rule out the above concept. If were a big car company like Toyota, I would chose that as my competitive advantage. With a quick change, the battery doesn’t need to be that big.
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He’s trying to warn us, because he cares about us. /s
Thank you for your concern! I think we all know what to do though.
Sorry you didn’t get that job at Tesla or SpaceX, don’t feel bad, only the best of the best get there apparently. I tried and didn’t get in, so I bought the shares and made more than the wages there. Still sucks not getting accepted though, but I’ll live.
See you in 2022, when the share price will reflect the reality even better than now!
I was replying to the concerned engineer, sorry to make it confusing.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You do realize Tesla is and will continue to grow it's share of automobile sales, right? EV's are replacing ICE's, Tesla only makes EV's, traditional OEM's make mostly ICE's. Guess where new sales will come from? This is a very basic concept.
There was a metric in the past here tracking negative press that was at least partially predictive. It was "Hog’s Negativity Index."
The new trolls’ posts are probably not predictive. I expect they reflect one of the few sources (albeit small) of shares available: That source is naive new shorts.
These naïfs are just parroting the long discredited FUD that’s induced them to short.
As an aside, I’d like to remind my fellow longs that it is the holiday season and, further, that time wounds all heels — sometimes sooner than later and sometimes fatally. There may be bodies hitting the pavement come the 24th, Christmas Eve.
Let’s please be mindful how we express ourselves. (I’m not suggesting there is anything untoward in @canoemore ’s post that I’m replying to. It’s just a general observation)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
OT:
PK ( translation: Drunk person; Hindi pronunciation: [pɪjəkːəɽ])
You're gonna have to do more research to keep from embarrassing yourself in this forum of Tesla scholars.
We could discuss each of the competitors you mentioned (Porsche Taycan has half the range and twice the price of the Tesla equivalent... Hummer EV is promised from GM, not Ford, in 2022, not this year... etc.), but let's back up and ask how any manufacturer could release EVs now if they "weren’t even considering EVs" 3 years ago. As an engineer, how long do you think it takes to develop a car with radically different drivetrain, energy source, and control software?
If you do some research, you'll find that Tesla forced the automajors to "consider" EVs well before 2017, because Tesla was already eating their lunch with Model S and X. Now that Model 3 and Y are ramping up, and Cybertruck is imminent, the automajors are in serious trouble from Tesla, and the smartest of them admits it:
VW Chief Executive Herbert Diess has often complained about the company’s failure to catch up with Tesla quickly, especially in terms of software, which has been a weak spot. “In the next few years it will be important to also take a leading position in vehicle software,” Mr. Diess said Friday.
Volkswagen Accelerates Investment in Electric Cars as It Races to Overtake Tesla
Volkswagen Accelerates Investment in Electric Cars as It Races to Overtake Tesla
We wish VW luck, for the good of the planet, but their "Mission T" (for Tesla) won't be easy.
An internal source from Volkswagen explained that ID.3’s software issues were mostly due to a lack of qualified personnel.... “It’s an absolute disaster. We just can’t get the people,” the insiders said.
Volkswagen's software issues with the ID.3 are worse than reported: 'It is an absolute disaster'
Volkswagen's software issues with the ID.3 are worse than reported: 'It is an absolute disaster'
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
MEANWHILE, BACK IN REALITY...
GM is the first manufacturer to completely ditch traditional engines
2017 story about GM going "all electric"
Volkswagen Will Be The Biggest Electric-Car Maker In 2018, It Says
2013 story where VW says they will be the biggest EV maker in the world by 2018
Not to mention in 2017 a bunch of other manufacturers were not just "considering" EVs- they were making and selling EVs
Problem was- they almost universally sucked.
An incomplete list of 2017 EVs you could have bought (or tried to- since there were relatively few of any of these actually sold)
Fiat had the 500e... with its 84 miles of range for $33,000 MSRP
Nissan has the leaf, then 107 miles of range for $30,680 MSRP
BMW had the i3, 81-114 miles of range for $42,400 MSRP
Ford had the focus electric, 115 miles for $29,120
Hyundai the Ioniq, 124 miles of range for $29,500
Volkswagen the e-golf, 125 miles of range for $28,995
Chevy had the bolt, with 236 miles of range for $36,620
Kia the Soul EV- 93 miles of range for $32,250
Mercedes had the B250e- with 84 miles of range for $39,900.
But yeah nobody else was "even considering" EVs...
And of course it's the year Teslas 300+ mile Model 3 launched to joint it's S and X models.
Like how GM did in 2017? How's that worked out so far?
Well... a model.... the range is terrible, the price is laughable, and they hilariously use the word "turbo" for one of the models despite it not having an actual turbo. But yes they did release one. It's not really "competition" for anything except maybe the gas version of a Porsche though.
Not really though.
This is a pretty classic technique for the FUDsters- they know Tesla delivers to geos differentially so they move around where sales are lower one month ignoring where they're higher another month.
This move doubles down on that since the ID.3 was delayed for so long what you're seeing right now is all the pre-orders finally being delivered- not new demand for the car.
Tesla sold almost no cars in Europe in October because they physically didn't have hardly any there to sell. Meanwhile in September they sold 18,877 of them.
In fact Tesla sold almost the same number of cars in the EU in just September as VW sold ID.3s in September AND October combined.
If you add the tiny # of cars Tesla did sell in October they outsold the ID.3 over those 2 months.
It's only when you get into cherry picked nonsense like "these 17 specific days in November, specifically in Norway" that Teslas sales look bad.
Yes. Nearly 3 years ago.
Source for that:
Ford is throwing $11 billion at its electric car problem
The story mentions this is after they had ALREADY announced back in 2015 they'd be spending 4.5 billion on EVs and have 13 different electric vehicles on the road by 20202.
How'd that turn out again?
Ford, like all the legacy makers, "announces" lots of things that never happen.
Competition by press release isn't a viable long term strategy though.
Well, you're half right.
Ford is releasing the Mach E.
Well, 50,000 of them... most going to Europe.
Why so few?
They can't get any more batteries than that.
it's almost like there's more than just a cathode and anode or something.
And of course Ford doesn't make the Hummer, electric or otherwise. GM does- and they're not releasing one this year.
The six-figure-price launch edition will be out in late 2021. The only slightly less hilariously overpriced "cheaper" versions will come sometime in the 2022-2024 timeframe.
Why are you assuming the competition will have the "same performance and tech" as Tesla? How are they going to achieve this?
I'm not sure you understand the lead and advantage Tesla actually has over the rest of the industry today, and I say this as an engineer in the automotive industry who does NOT work for Tesla, yet I am ALL IN on Tesla stock in my portfolio. So are many other automotive engineers I know in the industry who work for Tesla's "competition", we see the inevitable writing on the wall: Tesla will dominate the EV space for at least the next 5-10 years.
The traditional automakers rested on their laurels for too long and now they are going to get hurt badly. It's already happening and the hurt is only going to get worse, much worse before it gets any better.
Let's have discussion. How much of a lead do you think Tesla has? I think 8 to 10 years. And that prediction was in 2012. I still think 8 to 10 years. But now, I think that the lead is growing as opposed to shrinking.
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the Model S/X upgrade is switching to the new aluminum body casting process from the Model Y. Elon mentioned that the S/X also use cast aluminum body parts, but they require heat treating while the Y doesnt because of a new alloy. The new castings could result in higher margins for the S&X.
A better surprise would be if they’re using 4680 structural packs, but I think we’re a year out from that.
At the very least we better be getting heat pump & octovalve.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
OT - Starship
https://twitter.com/jdeshetler/status/1337868552162832384
Best video ever.
Didn't realise that the other engine had green exhaust for a split second also.
https://twitter.com/jdeshetler/status/1337868552162832384
Best video ever.
Didn't realise that the other engine had green exhaust for a split second also.
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