Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Summary of info supporting S/X refresh and maybe more:

1. Extra week of down time on S/X line in Fremont
2. Price increase in Europe
3. Reddit posts today about making Lucid Air "obsolete" on launch (posted in this thread)
   
4. Fact that many believe a refresh on these models is "overdue." Tesla is keenly aware of this

Haven't seen this posted, but it adds credence to theory of a refresh: https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1338368355271512064?s=20

That Twitter account, Bill Wright, works for Tesla in NV. He previously posted a semi emoji on his Twitter feed the night before Elon's email about increasing focus on the semi was revealed. I believe he posts on this forum under another handle. He's a good Twitter follow.

Wild speculation: some of this points to the start of production of Roadster. 4680s may still be production capacity limited, Reddit leak talks about making Lucid Air obsolete, and Elon tweeted within the past two months (paraphrasing here and my quick Twitter search didn't turn up a link): "we really should make the Roadster at some point..."

Will be interesting to see what happens.

The Roadster might come the same time as the Plaid Model S.

It has occurred to me one of the hold ups on the Plaid Model S might be new stamping dies, and the Roadster might use some of the same dies.

I will not be surprised if the "Refresh" Model S/X only have minor changes to the external body shape, but the Plaid Model S has (in addition) a wider rear end. The prototypes we saw had that, and the Roadster has a similar shape,

 

[Johnny Ma]

Gah I've been duped a 2nd time! That's it I'm just going to stick to making bad jokes.

No idea why anyone thinks squawksquare on Twitter is a good follow for Tesla info. All rumor and gossip with no analysis and no track record of accurate predictions.

Here's my short list for Tesla info on Twitter, in no particular order.

• carsonight (has relatives that work at gigafactory NV)
• tesla_truth (retired TMC poster Fact Checking)
• Enn_nafnlaus (retired TMC poster Karen)
• Bill Wright (see my previous post for link)
• @ReflexFunds
• @MatchasmMatt (not sure why this guy doesn't have a bigger following. knows a LOT about the renewable energy market)
  
• @FrankPeelen (@FrankSG on this forum)

Gary Black is a controversial but, imo, good follow. If you have a good filter you know when to scroll on by his tweets or take them seriously.

 

[Prunesquallor]

A bit OT.
Anyone following ARKG (Genomics) lately? NO TSLA in that ETF. I have a small position.

 

[darrel11]

I'm not familiar with this guy at all, but an opinion on what Tesla should do in China. (TL:dr, move much faster).

https://twitter.com/DongyanWang8/status/1338326242513195008

 

[UncaNed]

.

No idea why anyone thinks squawksquare on Twitter is a good follow for Tesla info. All rumor and gossip with no analysis and no track record of accurate predictions.

Here's my short list for Tesla info on Twitter, in no particular order.

• carsonight (has relatives that work at gigafactory NV)
• tesla_truth (retired TMC poster Fact Checking)
• Enn_nafnlaus (retired TMC poster Karen)
• Bill Wright (see my previous post for link)
• @ReflexFunds
• @MatchasmMatt (not sure why this guy doesn't have a bigger following. knows a LOT about the renewable energy market)
  
• @FrankPeelen (@FrankSG on this forum)

Gary Black is a controversial but, imo, good follow. If you have a good filter you know when to scroll on by his tweets or take them seriously.

Dang... I swear there was some other Tesla guy on Twitter...

 

[Mr X]

 

[MP3Mike]

Looks like ARKK sold off a huge chunk of shares today. What's that all about?

ARKK didn't sell any TSLA shares today. (At least from what I can see of the reports that ARK makes available.)

ARKQ sold 5,076 shares, or 0.25% of the fund. That certainly doesn't qualify as a "huge chunk of shares." (And even after that TSLA is still 12.1% of the fund, so way past their normal 10% target.)

 

[Mo City]

A bit OT.
Anyone following ARKG (Genomics) lately? NO TSLA in that ETF. I have a small position.

View attachment 617757

OT: NVTA and CRSP, who I used to hold but still track, are exploding. I assume they are a large part of the reason for this jump in ARKG.

Those are two stocks everyone should consider as part of a diversified portfolio. For the record, I am NOT diversified.

 

[Big Time]

I agree with previous statement that this day was no big dawgs buying in. This was the smallest fish. Let’s see who eats the next smallest fish.

 

[OrthoSurg]

A bit OT.
Anyone following ARKG (Genomics) lately? NO TSLA in that ETF. I have a small position.

View attachment 617757

I bought 300 shares of each ARK portfolio 6 months ago when I fell in love with Cathy Woods and Tasha Keeney.

What a ride

 

[mejojo]

A bit OT.
Anyone following ARKG (Genomics) lately? NO TSLA in that ETF. I have a small position.

View attachment 617757

I got 1,000 ARKG in August and it has turned a 53% gain for me so far.

 

[Prunesquallor]

OT: NVTA and CRSP, who I used to hold but still track, are exploding. I assume they are a large part of the reason for this jump in ARKG.

Those are two stocks everyone should consider as part of a diversified portfolio. For the record, I am NOT diversified.

The incredible reported effectiveness of the Covid mRNA vaccine is making these stocks erupt.

 

[generalenthu]

I was tracking the imbalance number today as it was getting published. It's updated every 5 seconds from 350 pm till close.

It started at 40k or so on the buy side and went up to 120k before settling at what @JBRR shows above just prior to close. Wanted to note that, as this snapshot doesn't tell the full story.

It felt like the buy imbalance was trying to pull the price up, and it reluctantly went up a bit. Pretty similar to how it did last Thursday or Friday as I was watching it.

For those of you who are on IBKR, you can just add the imbalance column to your view. Just need a nasdaq total view subscription which is $15 per month.

 

[agastya]

"A dyslexic man walks into a bra.....Don't worry. I'll be here all week folks."
Brought to you by the S&P 500 Committee, makers of TSLA ludicrous share price appreciation mode.
Failing to add Telsa when qualified, and changing their rules to allow 34 days of front-running instead of the standard seven to ten days suitable for all others. Ain't Tesla special.

Maybe they needed the front running to happen so as to get the right amount of liquidity?
I don't know if most of us have been too narrow-sighted with the sheer number of shares that need to be absorbed by the SP500 funds, that we probably miss why S&P set an extended run up, and then said let's go it all at once. It's all about the liquidity. Maybe they knew they needed more than usual liquidity and are hence expecting the sell side of the market to hold it for them.

Some relevant excerpt from https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/sp-500-etfs-brace-tesla-trade

ETF.com: Is there any concern about liquidity in a day like that day?
Lee: In general, one of the reasons people look toward this like a quadruple witching and rebalance days as a big trading day is that liquidity begets liquidity. There are good opportunities for people who are looking for liquidity, whether they're looking to buy or sell. There's always somebody out there doing something. From that perspective, quadruple witching days are very good opportunities to source liquidity.
But to your point, why wouldn't Tesla stock just run another, say, 25-50% given that everybody has to buy it? That's where having a robust and dynamic market comes into play, because there are market participants, whether it be proprietary traders, hedge funds or prop shops whose job is to look for these announced index changes and trade them ahead of time, and hopefully accumulate a position in advance of the index and be suppliers of liquidity.
The sell side is a liquidity partner in this endeavor. If we look at an index fund that cannot deviate, and it cannot trade early, if you don't have the sell side there prepositioning or accumulating position, you may have that scenario where the stock just runs uncontrollably to the upside. You want a robust ecosystem.
People have been trying to play this trade since the summer, when they thought it was going to be included into the S&P 500 in September, which is why, when it didn’t get announced, you saw the stock sell off. Then the game starts over again.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Dec 14, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "Deliberate Buying on 1st Day Since S&P Pro-forma Files"

Traded: $32,951,805,133.97 ($32.95B)
Volume: 52,062,292
VWAP: $632.93

Close: $639.83 / VWAP: 101.11%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $525 (+$25 since Fri)

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $606.496B / $213.424B = 284.14%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11 (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $533.14B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $367.09B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) reached Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 57.4% (57th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 32.0% (41st Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 1.83% of Short Volume (55th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTY: @Manic_Marge "Life is too short to pretend you don’t like Elon Musk"

Comment: "Early Melt Up to a Daily Cap at $640"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[amolina]

Looks like ARKK sold off a huge chunk of shares today. What's that all about?

Point me to where you heard a "huge chunk", I would mark it as my FUD place to watch for funzies.

However, there might be an error in calculating the percentage. It said that it shed on the ARKQ fund maybe???Not sure. But this particular ARKQ fund has only 633M net assets under management.

Let's check out this page for combined holdings that says ARK has 3.6M total shares
According to that (5076 shares /3,600,000 shares) X 100 = 0.14% of all holdings and not 0.25% as reported.

But importantly, they only got rid of the rounding error of TSLA shares for them. Do enjoy this chart here.
It would update in a few hours with today's TSLA selling numbers. I would love to follow spot the difference with that new graph

 

[Prunesquallor]

OT: NVTA and CRSP, who I used to hold but still track, are exploding. I assume they are a large part of the reason for this jump in ARKG.

Those are two stocks everyone should consider as part of a diversified portfolio. For the record, I am NOT diversified.

Edit: ARKG: 6% NVTA and 8% CRSP.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I was tracking the imbalance number today as it was getting published. It's updated every 5 seconds from 350 pm till close.

It started at 40k or so on the buy side and went up to 120k before settling at what @JBRR shows above just prior to close. Wanted to note that, as this snapshot doesn't tell the full story.

It felt like the buy imbalance was trying to pull the price up, and it reluctantly went up a bit. Pretty similar to how it did last Thursday or Friday as I was watching it.

For those of you who are on IBKR, you can just add the imbalance column to your view. Just need a nasdaq total view subscription which is $15 per month.

Do you think seeing the imbalance number will give an edge to watching the ticker at Friday close? Or will the effects of an imbalance be borne out so quickly as to not matter?

 

[Davidzhao365]

I was tracking the imbalance number today as it was getting published. It's updated every 5 seconds from 350 pm till close.

It started at 40k or so on the buy side and went up to 120k before settling at what @JBRR shows above just prior to close. Wanted to note that, as this snapshot doesn't tell the full story.

It felt like the buy imbalance was trying to pull the price up, and it reluctantly went up a bit. Pretty similar to how it did last Thursday or Friday as I was watching it.

For those of you who are on IBKR, you can just add the imbalance column to your view. Just need a nasdaq total view subscription which is $15 per month.

I have a screenshot from WeBull showing the changes in a chart, see

https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1338628597402091521?s=20

 

[StealthP3D]

OT: NVTA and CRSP, who I used to hold but still track, are exploding. I assume they are a large part of the reason for this jump in ARKG.

Those are two stocks everyone should consider as part of a diversified portfolio. For the record, I am NOT diversified.

Yes, CRSP is my 2nd largest position, after TSLA of course. I bought it in Feb. of this year. I also have a smallish position in ARKG from last year but CRSP has been making it look like a laggard! CRSP recently moved from position 3 or 4 of ARKG to #1 conviction. You know what happened to the #1 conviction of ARKK and ARKQ! Cathie Wood is becoming the new Oracle of Wall Street. She still has a long way to go to prove herself but she is already becoming the most influential disruptor in the financial world. The number of dollars under her management and the number of people who eagerly listen to everything she says has simply exploded this year!

This is relevant to Tesla because she is, by far, the biggest and most credible voice for Tesla in the financial world. Primarily for two reasons:

1) She was the most bullish person on TSLA (who actually got mainstream airtime) before TSLA started rising in 2019. They actually invited her on so they could snicker behind her back at the "silly, dreamy-eyed woman" and her sky-high price targets. This just cracks me up!

2) The highest conviction picks in her funds have driven those funds to outperform all others. Obviously, this was not due to just "being lucky" on Tesla. It's due to actual research of the companies under consideration by people who have actual expertise with the underlying subject matter. Who woulda thunk that's how you do it?

The reason I find this so funny is because it's egg on the face of the very kind of people I despise on Wall Street and the financial media, most of them chauvinistic bigots.