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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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We need to stop will all these conspiracy theories. Like come on, anyone can post anything on the internet, and we are giving credence to the broken english tweet from who exactly? I'm gonna go tweet that tesla is going to do a $50 billion share buy back to further force a squeeze. Just so one of you can screenshot it and post it here so we can come up with 3 pages of cockamamy tin foil hat theories.

I don't know who the guy is but I know who is Emmet. I have calls just like you and I am hoping this turns out great for all of us. I just know that calls are getting hammered right now and the IV keeps on dropping. Time will tell if we get an infinity squeeze or not or if it just turns out like the short squeeze of the century. I write in broken english as well.

haha.JPG
 
So the ship finally docked in Hawaii for the Tesla's to be delivered here for EOQ. I have my pick up scheduled for Christmas eve, and I know another member (model S LR+) has it scheduled for pick up on the 26th. My guess is that they're going to try and fling as many Tesla's into owner's hands as possible, even if Tesla as a whole has already made the 500k mark for the year. Just rubbing it into the nay sayers for the year.

I am planning on bringing the lovely workers at Tesla delivery center cookies for my pick up, since they're working Xmas eve.
 
Summary of info supporting S/X refresh and maybe more:
  1. Extra week of down time on S/X line in Fremont
  2. Price increase in Europe
  3. Reddit posts today about making Lucid Air "obsolete" on launch (posted in this thread)
  4. Fact that many believe a refresh on these models is "overdue." Tesla is keenly aware of this
Haven't seen this posted, but it adds credence to theory of a refresh: https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1338368355271512064?s=20

That Twitter account, Bill Wright, works for Tesla in NV. He previously posted a semi emoji on his Twitter feed the night before Elon's email about increasing focus on the semi was revealed. I believe he posts on this forum under another handle. He's a good Twitter follow.

Wild speculation: some of this points to the start of production of Roadster. 4680s may still be production capacity limited, Reddit leak talks about making Lucid Air obsolete, and Elon tweeted within the past two months (paraphrasing here and my quick Twitter search didn't turn up a link): "we really should make the Roadster at some point..."

Will be interesting to see what happens.

Short follow-up from spending way too much time on Twitter trying to figure out what's true (so you don't have to). Not going to link my sources because they're too speculative/tight-lipped. Speaking of speculation, my wild speculation is still wild and I put a near term Roadster announcement at <1% chance after finding new information.

Bottom line is it sounds like something has happened that will have material effect on the company. However, it may be something that most of us here already assumed would happen - like solving bottlenecks on the 4680 pilot line, but earlier than expected. I really don't know.

Most of us here hold long term I think, but if anyone was thinking about trading on this highly speculative information, I'd suggest not doing so. It's always fun to test your mettle and see if you can figure out what's going to happen before the rest of the market does. That's one of the reasons why we invested in Tesla, right?

Regardless, I'm just going to sit back and watch as the story unfolds. Best of luck to everyone!
 
So the ship finally docked in Hawaii for the Tesla's to be delivered here for EOQ. I have my pick up scheduled for Christmas eve, and I know another member (model S LR+) has it scheduled for pick up on the 26th. My guess is that they're going to try and fling as many Tesla's into owner's hands as possible, even if Tesla as a whole has already made the 500k mark for the year. Just rubbing it into the nay sayers for the year.

I am planning on bringing the lovely workers at Tesla delivery center cookies for my pick up, since they're working Xmas eve.
We. Want. Pictures.
 
There's about a 50/50 chance we're getting played, but 100% chance not nearly as played as big pig thinks. 50% chance big pig is wrong to the same degree he's always been wrong and we profit to an extreme.

There's never not risk!

I like the risk profile of HODL for 10 years. Not zero, but extremely low.
 
I get a kick out of the way the media (Electrek in this case) likes to frame these stories as if it's the government that dictates the speed of transition to EV's. They tend to make it sound like it's the government that's mandating the switch when, in my opinion, it's happening and will continue to happen based on economics. These incentives will barely dent the speed of transition. Every little bit helps but it's not the determining factor.
Looks like Big Auto is indeed looking for an EV lifeline/handout..Auto industry wants more government support for electric vehicles
 
I adjusted some short term calls today based on reasoning below. I could be wrong.

For option traders with 12/18 calls, I think the peak vol (and price) might be on Monday or Tue morning. Time decay may continue this week through Friday close.

I hope I am wrong, but it is a possibility.

Index funds don’t have the goal to beat S&P500, instead they want to minimize the gap with the index. To do so, the best way is to add all shares at exactly the Friday closing price, which is exactly the price S&P uses. So that index fund won’t buy before the Friday closing cross.

If there is no enough shares offered by the speculators during the cross, index fund can now buy from the market on Monday. The cross itself is a controlled process and all players are big entities, so I don’t expect squeeze during that 10 min.

For this Wed and Thu, based on the low vol now, I think potential speculators have done buying, now it is the time to wait and see what is the total supply in the Friday cross, is it more than 120m shares or not.

This is not what I want and it is just my personal opinion based on what I see from the inclusion data for FB, Twitter and ServiceNow. I could be wrong. But I have personally adjusted my calls today.

I compared FB, Twitter and ServiceNow inclusion vol peak here https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1338624307853840385?s=21
 
Looks like Big Auto is indeed looking for an EV lifeline/handout..Auto industry wants more government support for electric vehicles
Sigh. Two minds.
1) ICE OEMs have fought EVs and deserve to die for this survive-at-all-costs mindset.
2). We need a LOT of EVs to meet the mission. Tesla is just not everyone’s cup of tea and in any case cannot terraform the planet on their own (in time).

This is the last ... the VERY LAST... chance for the OEMs to do the right thing. If this is just another political 4-year tactic, then they richly deserve their extinction.
 
I have a question: so we’ve all seen the big boys pushing down the stock trying to get it at a cheaper price. So let’s say they are successful at holding it between 600-650 on Friday at close. Set aside the week after this one, starting at the first of the year, aren’t these MM big boys going to be on our side? No more capping just seamingly less selling, more buying and recommending to their clients?