Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[joh01652]

While Elon busted his ass living on the factory floor trying to get the model 3 ramp-up going, these punks sat on their asses. They should all ****ing going bankrupt, then consolidate them into an EV company that ONLY helps Tesla produce different model types.

Actually, no, that's not correct.

While Elon and team were busting their arses, Big Auto was VERY BUSY spending money and time ridiculing Tesla, Elon and EVs. They were VERY BUSY spending millions on ads for the Super Bowl, lobbying for subsidies/tax breaks, lying about emission scandals, taking government bailout money, and creating public relations campaigns to twist a false narrative around all aspects of EVs and Tesla. They certainly weren't busy engineering innovative new products.

No, if it was up to me, Big Auto wouldn't receive a penny of government aid or tax breaks. They've received more than their fare share for over 50 years now--it's time to give others a shot. Big Auto has squandered too much on advertising/PR, and manufacturing the same tired variants year after year. No more. Let them go bankrupt making slow, noisy, polluting steam engines.

I'd rather see Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Lordstown, Zero motorcycles, QuantumScape, electric bike/scooter makers, etc, get the billions. We'd get a better ROI giving university solar car teams "innovation money" than Big Auto.

We The People need to stop giving good money to bad companies whose primary focus and expertise is in 19th century technology.

 

[Buckminster]

Because of that I'm leaning towards most of the buying occurring late in the game.

We should think about it from the benchmark fund manager's perspective. Their success is based on how well they match the index's performance right? So let's look at some scenarios.

1. Fund manager is savvy and buys now. Pro: possibly gets a much better price than other funds, get's a pat on the back. Con: risk that the stock drops on the inclusion day and that the fund lags the index and manager gets a red check for performance. So the manager is taking a risk of being penalized for what I assume is little personal benefit. Why take the risk? That also makes it harder to sell off other stocks in the correct ratios.

2. Fund manager just waits to buy with the crowd. Pro: Ensures fund stays in line with peer funds and matches S&P 500 performance as close as possible. Con: Fund "over pays" for TSLA stock relative to fair value and perhaps loses money as the stock dips post inclusion. That happens to the entire index so the manager is not in hot water.

So why would any rational manager choose option 1? Anything I'm missing here? Obviously the tracking funds have many other options.

Regarding the passive funds, can they provide their consumers with a different yield because they purchased at different times and prices? Or does the fund have to makeup the delta from previous profits?

 

[mongo]

I agree that the paperwork for the bty workshop is likely waiting a final design to come out of Fremont. The most obvious issue is water usage. If Tesla can scale the Maxwell dry electrode (DBE) process approriately, it will likely result in a material reduction in the water consumption requirements requested in that permit. I've also seen rumours recently that Tesla is planning their own water pipeline to supply Phase 2+ of the Berlin buildout.

The dry electrode process removes the use of solvent which is currently reclaimed and reused with >95% recapture rate.
Water use reduction in cell creation would come from the new cathode material process flow.
Page 51 of 2020-battery-day-presentation-deck

 

[AudubonB]

Actually, no, that's not correct.

While Elon and team were busting their arses, Big Auto was VERY BUSY spending money and time ridiculing Tesla, Elon and EVs. They were VERY BUSY spending millions on ads for the Super Bowl, lobbying for subsidies/tax breaks, lying about emission scandals, taking government bailout money, and creating public relations campaigns to twist a false narrative around all aspects of EVs and Tesla. They certainly weren't busy engineering innovative new products.

No, if it was up to me, Big Auto wouldn't receive a penny of government aid or tax breaks. They've received more than their fare share for over 50 years now--it's time to give others a shot. Big Auto has squandered too much on advertising/PR, and manufacturing the same tired variants year after year. No more. Let them go bankrupt making slow, noisy, polluting steam engines.

I'd rather see Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Lordstown, Zero motorcycles, QuantumScape, electric bike/scooter makers, etc, get the billions. We'd get a better ROI giving university solar car teams "innovation money" than Big Auto.

We The People need to stop giving good money to bad companies whose primary focus and expertise is in 19th century technology.

I like your attitude and the gist of your post. I don’t think it’s written in the right tone for the following but - I do think that, carefully crafted, then all who favor a responsible transition away from a hydrocarbon-intensive transportation sector should adorn - again and again - their D.C. representatives (edited to correct a wacko Autocorrect) with such letters; such also should go to Sec’y of Transportation Buttigeig’s and Sec’y of Energy Granholm’s offices, too.

 

[jhm]

I recommend you not put much weight into the dollar value reported each day for your portfolio. It's all about the quality of what it contains. Assuming you're in it for the long-haul.

All my stocks have strong long-term growth prospects. That is why I want to maintain meaningful exposure to each of them.

 

[generalenthu]

Why couldn't the Plaid S lead the way

Because I think Plaid S / S / X will continue to be on the same architecture. Can't imagine them signing up for yet another different variant on the bodyline that already does an S and X.

Roadster on the other hand will likely be hand built, and substantially complex, especially if they get a good number of orders with the spacex option package.

 

[MC3OZ]

Because I think Plaid S / S / X will continue to be on the same architecture. Can't imagine them signing up for yet another different variant on the bodyline that already does an S and X.

Roadster on the other hand will likely be hand built, and substantially complex, especially if they get a good number of orders with the spacex option package.

Keep in mind the Plaid Model S prototypes we did see had a what engineering geeks might call a "wider rear end".

If that is a minor change to one part of the body, it might be able to be handled as a variant of production.

The body shape in that area is similar to the Roadster, the motors and batteries might be similar, with the Roadster being faster..

It may make sense to have the faster lower volume Roadster model come last, Plaid Model S deserves some time in the sun as undisputed "top dog".

There will be no need to prove Roadrunner 4680s, structural packs, etc the Berlin Model Y will validate that tech.

 

[generalenthu]

structural pack

The architecture with structural pack will in my opinion be very different than the rest of the body architecture S / X employ. Think different battery thicknesses, different cooling mechanisms for the battery, different structural members. The similarities will likely be only skin deep.

But I dont have any manufacturing / engineering expertise. So take it for what it's worth.

 

[Stretch2727]

Regarding the passive funds, can they provide their consumers with a different yield because they purchased at different times and prices? Or does the fund have to makeup the delta from previous profits?

The index fund return almost never matches the index perfectly. Its called tracking error and all index funds report it. Like many here have said the index funds really don’t care what price they add a stock. They are more interested in matching the entry price and proper weighting on the inclusion date. Any difference will show up as tracking error.

 

[Tslynk67]

I have a question: so we’ve all seen the big boys pushing down the stock trying to get it at a cheaper price. So let’s say they are successful at holding it between 600-650 on Friday at close. Set aside the week after this one, starting at the first of the year, aren’t these MM big boys going to be on our side? No more capping just seamingly less selling, more buying and recommending to their clients?

I don't think the capping has anything to do with S&P inclusion, just the usual options/IV play, but on steroids for this week. Lots for them to lose $650 and above, and if they can convince call holders the same, then they can re-buy those calls for peanuts.

Here's the chart for Friday - 41m shares at play at $700 strike, that's insane

 

[Runarbt]

Wouldnt it be pure genius of the index funds, to hold these $700 call options?

Then, no matter how high they drive the SP to get their shares, they know they have an additional 41million shares at a fixed $700 price.

They can afford to drive the price to $1000 or more, as their average will look great when they exercise these options.

Edit: They could load up on even more cheap calls - closer to friday, and then they can buy what extra shares they need on the open market, even if its drives the SP to insane levels.. they will be good.

Edit2: Or, maybe they arent allowed?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I don't think the capping has anything to do with S&P inclusion, just the usual options/IV play, but on steroids for this week. Lots for them to lose $650 and above, and if they can convince call holders the same, then they can re-buy those calls for peanuts.

Here's the chart for Friday - 41m shares at play at $700 strike, that's insane

View attachment 618131

I wonder if those 40,700 calls 700 are going to play a role this week. Most of their holders bought them to profit from an inclusion spike (I’m not a big fan of complicated theories about index funds using options to acquire shares). If today and tomorrow SP stays flat or even drops a bit, it’s unlikely most will sell them. They were worth more than 30 a week ago, only 4.85 now and probably less tomorrow, so might as well keep them for a hail mary gamble. In fact, if they drop more in value, more gamblers may start pickung up these calls as we approach Friday, hoping inclusion day will still bring a squeeze. That by itself may become a driving force this week.

 

[JBRR]

 

[CyberDutchie]

I don't think the capping has anything to do with S&P inclusion, just the usual options/IV play, but on steroids for this week. Lots for them to lose $650 and above, and if they can convince call holders the same, then they can re-buy those calls for peanuts.

Here's the chart for Friday - 41m shares at play at $700 strike, that's insane

View attachment 618131

$4.1m (1 call = 100 shares)

 

[Papafox]

So the ship finally docked in Hawaii for the Tesla's to be delivered here for EOQ. I have my pick up scheduled for Christmas eve, and I know another member (model S LR+) has it scheduled for pick up on the 26th. My guess is that they're going to try and fling as many Tesla's into owner's hands as possible, even if Tesla as a whole has already made the 500k mark for the year. Just rubbing it into the nay sayers for the year.

I am planning on bringing the lovely workers at Tesla delivery center cookies for my pick up, since they're working Xmas eve.

Bless you for bringing cookies!

Back in December, 2018, I spent much of the final week scrubbing Teslas as a volunteer to get them ready for delivery. Many others on this forum volunteered across the country that month, too. It was a massive effort for the Honolulu Service Center. Deliveries were finished about two and a half hours before midnight on the 31st.

Not feeling at all guilty about 2020's massive gains from our Tesla holdings. We earned it!

 

[Tslynk67]

$4.1m (1 call = 100 shares)

And I'm not even drunk...

 

[chrsk]

Looks like today will bring more of the same. All futures are green, major markets in Europe are green, and Tesla is red.

A part of me slowly starts to acknowledge that the impact on the stock price this week might not be what many of us were hoping for.

 

[MABMAB]

What I really want is for Elon to make a list of TSLA shareholders from oldest since IPO to newest, and for the first few years of tourist packages to the Mars colony, he goes down the list in order and offers the shareholders the first rights to purchase the tickets. I would be pretty far the down the list compared to some of you but I would still be way ahead of the general public.

I thought the oldest shareholders (and influencers) received "random" invites to battery day. Did anyone else here get such an invite? We did but did not go.

 

[chrsk]

I don't think the capping has anything to do with S&P inclusion, just the usual options/IV play, but on steroids for this week. Lots for them to lose $650 and above, and if they can convince call holders the same, then they can re-buy those calls for peanuts.

Here's the chart for Friday - 41m shares at play at $700 strike, that's insane

View attachment 618131

The volume of options has decreased a lot over the last months. This spring/summer it was quite normal to see 20k-30k calls right above the stock price. Today there is about 20k at 650, so 1/5th of this summer.

 

[MABMAB]

I was on the road for a good while yesterday, regularly checked quotes from my car per yahoo finance. One of the newsy click bait ads was about 2020 Mach E in showrooms trying to generate TSLA buzz.

So this am, I check local showroom inventory, they do not have any! Vaporware! But they do have a 79K Shelby 500 or whatever. I checked performance 0-60... under ideal conditions it is slower than my Performance 3. Blue oval cars are dead and the main profit center is dead per TX factory. Perhaps they can keep black smoke generators for a while, have you seen the emotional appeal of the ads focused on big trucks and lifesavers? John Q Redneck will take a while to go E.

Back road driving the other day, our silent ride approached a large flock of wild turkeys. Amazing stuff that would have been impossible in a noisy ICE. Oh how we enjoy the sound of silence!

Car next to me at a stop light yesterday spun rubber, some young infinite Q jumped ahead. He was racing, I did not know. So I played along, albeit delayed, and nearly caught up by speedlimit + 10.

Those that have not experienced a TSLA yet just dont know or cant accept that they are the BEST D$%N CARS EVER MADE!