Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

If there's no rally around inclusion, then there won't be a sell off. I don't get why people are thinking that there would still be a sell off if the stock doesn't even get back to it's all time high around 680 by Friday or Monday.

52-wk high $654.32

 

[corduroy]

Can I get your bottle with you're done? They sold out as I was placing my order.

The bottle is worth $240, the tequila $10

 

[EV forever]

Can I get your bottle with you're done? They sold out as I was placing my order.

The empty bottles are selling on ebay for over $1200 bucks

 

[Buckminster]

There are many on this board with far greater training, education, experience, and insight than myself.

There are very few that I wouldn’t be willing to sit down at a poker table with...

Be careful - I am expecting 4 aces at the close on Monday:
$1111

 

[evermore]

View attachment 618241

Dunno, I didn't make the rules. I didn't even select the margin option when making the account, as I've not yet used margin and don't want to, since it allows them to use my shares (legally) for shorting.

Edit: Roth IRAs: Investing and Trading Do’s and Don’ts According to Investopedia, Roth accounts can't use margin. I dunno how that got into my account, but as I wasn't really going to use it anyway, I'm just going to unable that margin myself. Just in case.

You may have what some brokers call "limited margin" in the IRA (you can't borrow but you can trade with unsettled funds and trade some options). Fidelity explains it best:
What Is Limited Margin Trading? - Fidelity

On TDA's site Margin Trading for Investment Strategies | TD Ameritrade it says "Margin trading is available across all of our platforms, and qualified clients can trade with unsettled funds in margin IRAs."

 

[Runarbt]

The empty bottles are selling on ebay for over $1200 bucks

Still?

Elon has tweeted they will be selling empty bottles to us Europeans. :-D Maybe its because he saw what we are willing to pay on Ebay?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

The extended fund has to sell them and the normal S&P fund has to buy them, there is no reason they have to sell to one of their own funds. And the S&P fund is much larger so it needs to buy way more than the extended fund will be selling. This is part of why the closing cross is around. Everyone can put their orders in for a trade at the close and if there is an imbalance between the buys and sells the price will get adjusted to encourage other people to come in and balance the trade.

And don't forget the other side, the S&P fund has to sell the other 500 companies to get the money required to buy TSLA. (And the extended fund will need to buy more of everything that isn't in the S&P500 after it sells it's TSLA holdings.) There is way more than just TSLA involved... There are a lot of deck chairs that need rearranged.

Exactly. However, I disagree with your statement above in bold. All mutual funds do this rebalancing daily. When I rebalance my mutual funds, it is done at the closing price of the next trading day (unless I put in the order before 10am EST). The fund mathematically collects up all the buying and selling of all of their holders, then only trades the net values, in order to minimize trading costs. Furthermore, across fund offerings within a mutual fund company there are often numerous common stocks, especially large companies like Vanguard, so they do these net calculations across all funds. It makes absolutely no sense to trade everything on the open market. I guarantee that Vanguard is not selling 9.6M shares of TSLA from their Extended Index on the open market, just to buy 29.6M for their S&P500 Index. No. Never. They will net out and only buy 20M (in this example, I don’t know the real buying numbers). Yes, the total dollar value of the S&P Fund is likely larger than the Extended Index Fund, so more net buying, but still those 9.6M shares will not need to be bought on the open market.

Edit: I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but this Friday is likely the best day for TSLA inclusion because of the quadruple witching options expiration, normal annual rebalancing, and capital gains distributions that occur around this time. I think the S&P Committee got this decision absolutely correct. Another thing I just thought of is the possible effect of annual selling to lock-in capital gains/losses in 2020 instead of 2021. This means anyone selling TSLA must wait 30d to buy back in without tax repercussions. I’m guessing that most HODLers will want to be fully invested before Q4 financials are announced in January.

 

[LN1_Casey]

The empty bottles are selling on ebay for over $1200 bucks

Jeep Cherokee.

Christmas gift?

....it's fine i'll wait until Tesla sells them.

 

[mejojo]

The empty bottles are selling on ebay for over $1200 bucks

 

[EV forever]

Jeep Cherokee.

Christmas gift?

....it's fine i'll wait until Tesla sells them.

Me too - too expensive even as a Christmas gift for myself. Feel so bad missing out on buying when it was on the website.
Hope folks here post immediately if Tesla gets more on their website.

 

[Vad42]

My retirement price is $800 already, so... in any case, as mentioned this morning, I do need some cash out, so selling at a local peak, then selling puts to get back in is also an option. As is selling some covered calls.

I prefer to take some premiums and risk losing my shares over actually selling some shares then hoping the rest go up in value.

My retirement price keeps inexplicably increasing as I add new big-ticket items to my "NEED to buy" list....

I got burned twice already on covered calls. And currently sitting on some 900s for early next year that I kept rolling out

 

[Mike Smith]

The market doesn't seem to think there's going to be a spike on Friday but hey, what does the market know?

It's almost as if it's telling us that a stock that's up 10X in a year will find plenty of sellers? And that institutional longs have known about this event for as long as we have and have been waiting to sell into it? Shocking!

I'm just glad this is almost over so we can focus on the REAL exciting event - Q4 earnings

 

[WattsHappening]

The empty bottles are selling on ebay for over $1200 bucks

I would think this is going to be very short-lived. With the announcement that another batch is in the works, the scarcity will dissipate.

I have one on order and I was selfishly hoping this was going to be a one-time deal like the flamethrower and short shorts. Not to sell, but to hold onto forever as a token of my appreciation for Tesla.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Signs of life. Could be the beginning stages of the last FOMO surge.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Just got my 2 bottles of Tesquilla. When the stock hits 1k I'm going to drink one while wearing my Tesla short shorts. Bullish AF.

View attachment 618246

Very disappointed I don’t see TMC on the screen

 

[Big Time]

Wtf are the macros doing & why?

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this morning: Big EV supporter Jennifer Granholm tapped for energy secretary - Electrek

Excerpt:

In November, she wrote an op-ed for the Detroit News calling for Michigan’s auto industry to invest in a low-carbon economy, stating that “the time for a low-carbon recovery is now.” The two-term governor, who was in power during the auto industry bailout during the recession, wrote:

A low-carbon recovery plan could create 1.7 million new jobs in the US. State automakers like Ford and General Motors are producing a greater number of EVs, but policy incentives are needed to ensure that the cost-saving and environmental benefits are available to everyone.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wtf are the macros doing & why?

FOMC minutes were released (11AM PT) and Chairman Powell made comments today. Also, appears to be a breakthrough on stimulus negotiations in Congress.

 

[UltradoomY]

I am in the same boat, can't wait till this is over.
Really excited about the final P & D report for Q4 and 2020, then the predictions of @theaccountant - that's where the real magic happens

 

[lklundin]

I was one of those people who mentioned back room deals. And it's not that I'm saying that's how it works, but my thinking has nothing to do with price - I agree with you that the index funds are price agnostic - but more to do with availability of shares. In other words they could make a deal to buy a certain number of shares at whatever the closing price is on Friday (for example) but not to buy them on the open market but instead from a pre defined "partner in crime"? This to ensure shares available to them and not get caught up in possible open market chaos - again they are price agnostic - but much harder to match the index well if the price swings wildly in a trading day and in AH trading?

In this scenario, the index fund will be trying to protect itself against the risk that at Friday's Closing Cross (which is the moment when they can buy at exactly the price that will keep them in line with the index) there will not actually be any shares to buy (because also at the closing cross a trade involves not only a buyer and but also a seller, so the volume is limited by the number of willing sellers).

It has already been established that the actual number of shares that a given index fund needs to buy is not that sensitive to the closing price, the risk is that this number of shares will be unavailable at the right time - and thus have to bought later at a potentially higher price.

So assume that to mitigate this risk the index fund has ahead of this event approached someone with this offer: "At the Closing Cross on Friday Dec. 18 we will buy this specific number - X - of Tesla shares from you at "market" price (i.e. the price at the Closing Cross)."

While very different in the details, this contract has some similarity to the index fund buying call options. For example, the further away in time they entered into the contract the more time value it would have due to (even) greater uncertainty of the stock price at expiration. While the buyer of the contract (the index fund) would reduce their risk, the seller of the contract would conversely increase their risk - specifically that at expiry the stock price would be lower than what they would need to deem the contract desirable.

The point is that this deal would only be acceptable to a (rational) supplier of shares for an additional payment, basically a premium to compensate them for the risk they take - similar to what a writer of a call option would expect.

And herein lies the rub: The index fund is supposed to acquire the shares at market price at the Closing Cross on Friday - but trying to do so via some pre-arranged contract will necessarily incur an extra cost to them - causing them to surely deviate from the Index, which was the very thing they were trying to avoid.

So I can only see such a pre-arranged transfer of shares to an index fund from someone who can accept to not get compensated for the risk that deal involves - maybe a situation where an index fund is owned by someone who also owns a different fund that could buy the shares ahead of time and could somehow accept to potentially lose out on the deal.