Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

As I was watching the closing cross about 850K shares traded, it started with a buy imbalance of ~190k and this got chipped away as the price was mostly flat, and QQQs were drifting lower.

Anyhow, super low volume day, Pretty rudderless except for a drop and bounce on some volume around 10:20 AM probably from some macro moves. There seemed to be a tiny bit of volume pickup in broader market then.

Not much to takeaway, though not sure what i was looking for. Everyone just seems to have got their fill and waiting to sell it to indexes. Nobody seems to have any appetite to pick up more despite the weak action and obvious buying.

More interesting to me is, who are the sellers after next week? Everyone who is intent on selling will likely sell to the inclusion trade. on the buy side though, not sure index funds will wrap up buying Friday. And the pistol goes off for any SP 500 benchmarked funds who want to stay neutral, but didn't buy yet.

Who is placing these trades, where do they come from?

 

[wipster]

Definitely pre market Jan 4th or in the evening of Jan 3rd. I really doubt we get the numbers anytime on Jan 1st

Another sleepless Sunday night...

 

[JBRR]

Yes, I'm completely lost with this closing cross - I don't recall it EVER being discussed on this thread in the last four years up until a few weeks ago, and all of a sudden it's a panacea to deliver 120m shares at 16:00:05 to the index funds.

Can someone smarter than me - which is anyone reading this, basically - explain this in idiot terms?

I've read that this magical cross matches all the sell and buy orders - which sell and buy orders? Don't all the ones from main market get traded or cancelled at close and then we're in AH? What then happens to AH, are these magic-cross trades making the AH price go up (or down)?

And how can I participate? Do I need a limit order in main market, or do I need to introduce an after-hours trade, which incidentally I cannot perform until 15 minutes into the session (don't know if this is a limit of my broker, or a general thing). BTW, my broker is KeyTrade (in Belgium), as someone was asking earlier.

Many questions and TBH it just makes my brain hurt.

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/conten...adingProducts/crosses/openclosequickguide.pdf

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this morning: Big EV supporter Jennifer Granholm tapped for energy secretary - Electrek

Excerpt:

In November, she wrote an op-ed for the Detroit News calling for Michigan’s auto industry to invest in a low-carbon economy, stating that “the time for a low-carbon recovery is now.” The two-term governor, who was in power during the auto industry bailout during the recession, wrote:

A low-carbon recovery plan could create 1.7 million new jobs in the US. State automakers like Ford and General Motors are producing a greater number of EVs, but policy incentives are needed to ensure that the cost-saving and environmental benefits are available to everyone.

Politico - hour ago: Biden to tap former Michigan Gov. Granholm to lead Energy Department

Excerpt:

Granholm, who served two terms as Michigan's governor, is experienced in dealing with the auto industry — a potentially big advantage as the new president seeks to speed the rollout of electric vehicles and the network of charging stations needed to power them...

And it would be a marked change of course from President Donald Trump's first Energy secretary, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who used the position to promote natural gas exports and push regulators to prop up coal as a power source.

 

[Tslynk67]

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/conten...adingProducts/crosses/openclosequickguide.pdf

Thanks, I was just reading this one: https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/productsservices/trading/crosses/openclose_faqs.pdf

TBH it reads like some of the grimoires I was interested in as a teenager...

Edit: so you still need sell orders of 120m shares to be placed, there's nothing "pre-arranged" per-se, but the orders can be placed with an order type to execute at the closing price, which obviously wouldn't shift the SP.

After that, normal AH trading begins and then it's up to the seller to decide whether they want to sell at the closing price or not, and then up to the indexes whether they want to chase that up, or take their chances waiting until the same event occurs at open on Monday.

Meh, it's too complex...

 

[dl003]

This closing cross thing is starting to sound like a swinger party where every dude (indexer) is expected to bring their wife/girlfriend (offloading fund).

 

[Unpilot]

Thanks, I was just reading this one: https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/productsservices/trading/crosses/openclose_faqs.pdf

TBH it reads like some of the grimoires I was interested in as a teenager...

Yeah as humans we have a deep desire to makes things WAY more complicated than they need to be.

Throw in greed some MIT trained mathematicians and voila here we are.

 

[pz1975]

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/conten...adingProducts/crosses/openclosequickguide.pdf

The part of this I can’t figure out is if there are more buy than sell orders (as we would expect this Friday) for the closing cross, what happens to those unfilled buy orders? I assume they just get cancelled. In that situation, there may be a lot of necessary buying pressure pushed into early next week. The funds have 3 days after inclusion day (Dec. 18 or maybe less likely Dec. 21 is considered the official day) to fill their required share purchases.

So if there isn’t a big spike Friday near or after close, it may still happen early-middle next week. If there isn’t a spike by Friday close, I will probably load up on cheap Dec. 24 calls (IV will continue to drop) just before close to capture a possible spike next week.

I have about 2/3 of my profits from this play so far (sold calls from Dec 4-18) still in calls expiring Dec 31-Jan 15. I should be able to get out with around 1/3-1/2 of my profits even if nothing happens next week, and I am fine with that. This was always a high risk/reward play and I would have accepted losing all of my play. I like the risk/reward of Dec. 24 OTM calls if the SP is flat/down/slightly up into close Dec. 18.

 

[MP3Mike]

Surprise: No TSLA was added to VOO today either.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT rant: If I want to open or close the frunk, I'm already standing right there. I buy things that actually make my life better. Watching the hood rise or latch on it's own doesn't do that for me. It would be like buying a machine that would peel my banana for me before I ate it. How about a machine that would tie your shoes? I've never owned or understood electric can-openers either. I've used a few but I guess I don't get it. You have to realize I'm a guy who cuts and hauls his own firewood, does his own plumbing and electrical repairs, maintains and changes the tires on his motorcycles and cars and tunes and waxes his own skis. I wouldn't spend the time to install it if someone gave it to me (unless it was simply out of respect for the person who gifted it).

But you should buy a bidet. Will change your life.

 

[2daMoon]

But you should buy a bidet. Will change your life.

Trying to picture a cat on a bidet. (this from someone who taught a cat to use the toilet)

 

[dww12]

Pardon my ignorance. But what?

I was told snake jazz was going to be awesome, and all I see is that stick meme poking TSLA to “do something”. Instead of increasing volume it is decreasing? What is that? I’m not complaining about where TSLA is it’s just the prophecy was for a show and I’ve been spending too much time in anticipation. Patience.

 

[Runarbt]

Trying to picture a cat on a bidet. (this from someone who taught a cat to use the toilet)

On or in.. same same, no?

 

[Krugerrand]

On or in.. same same, no?

That’s a cheap one. They come with remote controls now; heated seats, water temp adjustment, lights, timers, blowers, personal settings etc..

 

[StealthP3D]

so you gained slightly less than 1% on those two trades? hope it's non-taxable.

Well, that's assuming that "drop" is some kind of super top-secret code word for "sell".

Because I've never heard of anyone else "dropping their shares". It almost sounds like an accident. Or, with Tesla, maybe it's easier to type "drop" than "sell".

It could lead to some interesting sentences such as:

Q: What do you do for a living?
A: I drop houses.
Q: You what?
A: I drop houses.
Q: I don't get it.
A: You know, I'm a realtor.
Q:

Tesla could employ this to their advantage in Texas:

State Attorney General: It's illegal for you to sell cars in Texas without a dealers license. We are going to have to put an end to it.
Elon Musk: Yes, but the law doesn't say we can't drop cars in Texas - that's all were doing.
State Attorney General:

 

[corduroy]

In that situation, there may be a lot of necessary buying pressure pushed into early next week. The funds have 3 days after inclusion day (Dec. 18 or maybe less likely Dec. 21 is considered the official day) to fill their required share purchases.

So if there isn’t a big spike Friday near or after close, it may still happen early-middle next week.

 

[Duffer]

After hours musing regarding "Competitor" thoughts AKA How legacy auto can produce EV's and still allow dealer profit.

It's fairly common knowledge that legacy auto is only worried about the satisfaction of the first owner/lessee. This is where the brand and vehicle owner surveys come from. To the OEM's, vehicles are consumables and they expect/hope to sell or lease a vehicle to repeat customers. With the exception of those few vehicles that the dealer thinks that they can still make money on, the majority of trade-ins and lease returns go to the secondary market.
With the above in mind, here are a few ways that "Big Auto" keeps the dealers happy.

1. Offer to cash them out. (Cadillac)

2. Keep diagnostics/tools proprietary or at least too expensive for Indie shops to find the purchase a good ROI. Forcing owners to go to the stealerships for service.

3. Have a portion of the battery capacity either software of hardware isolated. Allowing the damage from super quick charging and/or charging to 100% constantly by the initial owner to be "repaired".

Scenario "It's $300.00 for our service techs to diagnose your loss of range" Tech connects jumper or changes settings in software. "Great news. Your muffler bearings were worn. It's $1500.00 plus labor. Christy at the cashier window will help you. Thanks again."

4. Regen braking limits actual brake wear until after first owner. Use single use brake discs and cheap brake pads. Win/Win Less expensive and less weight assists range. Dealer brake jobs = $$$

5. ??

 

[LN1_Casey]

I was told snake jazz was going to be awesome, and all I see is that stick meme poking TSLA to “do something”. Instead of increasing volume it is decreasing? What is that? I’m not complaining about where TSLA is it’s just the prophecy was for a show and I’ve been spending too much time in anticipation. Patience.

Well, technically the stock is up $200 from when SP&500 was announced. That's nothing to sniff at.

 

[lafrisbee]

Thanks, I was just reading this one: https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/productsservices/trading/crosses/openclose_faqs.pdf

TBH it reads like some of the grimoires I was interested in as a teenager...

Edit: so you still need sell orders of 120m shares to be placed, there's nothing "pre-arranged" per-se, but the orders can be placed with an order type to execute at the closing price, which obviously wouldn't shift the SP.

After that, normal AH trading begins and then it's up to the seller to decide whether they want to sell at the closing price or not, and then up to the indexes whether they want to chase that up, or take their chances waiting until the same event occurs at open on Monday.

Meh, it's too complex...

I am with you.
So what seller in his right mind would not sell during the day instead of wait around and maybe get to sell at the closing cross price?
I can understand how buyers like to buy at a closing cross but not sellers. Anyone able to explain the sense for them to participate?

 

[Runarbt]

That’s a cheap one. They come with remote controls now; heated seats, water temp adjustment, lights, timers, blowers, personal settings etc..

This one comes with a cat! Warm and fluffy.

Way better