Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MXWing]

So if all the 12/18 and 12/24 call buyers are screwed. Would the 12/24 and 12/31 put buyers be as well?

 

[dl003]

If that is the real answer then I still don't understand greed...or closing cross

Greed made them buy shares at 408. Fear will make them sell at 650 or whatever to lock in the profit. Supply & demand will dictate TSLA closing price on Friday. Sellers that ain't happy with that price will try their luck in the closing crosses. Anyone not liking the crosses either has bought at the top or is a TMC member. Either way, indexers will get their shares and the price might very well go up or down, depending on supply & demand at that very hour.

 

[ammulder]

Interesting thoughts on whether the market as a whole is overvalued, touching on the gains of Big Tech as well as Tesla, the Airbnb IPO, options, and etc.:

What explains investors’ enthusiasm for risky assets?

A few of the pertinent bits:

"It was only in 2018 that a public company, Apple, first became valued at more than $1trn. In net terms, Apple has gained around $750bn this year. Tesla has increased in value six-fold this year, to a market capitalisation of more than $600bn, roughly the value of the other seven most valuable carmakers combined."
...
"Retail investors accounted for 20% of the volume of stock trading, up from 15% in 2019. In the summer small buyers of call options—bets on share prices rising—were responsible for more derivatives trading than large ones."
...
"The rise in share prices alone, then, is probably not enough to indicate a mania, given the shift in discount rates. This may not dispel investors’ disquiet, in part because they are surrounded by evidence of exuberance. But the case for a bubble, at the very least, is not open and shut."​

 

[Featsbeyond50]

FYI, Vanguard has an Extended Market Index fund that invests in all stocks that are NOT in the S&P. As of 30 Nov 2020, the number one holding was 9.6M shares of TSLA. On Friday, those shares will be magically transferred into Vanguard’s S&P500 Index fund at the ending day price. By Vanguard’s definition, any stock now in their 500 Index Fund, cannot be in their Extended Index Fund. No need to buy/sell anything on the open market (except a few for balancing). I would imagine that almost every large ETF or Mutual fund family has a similar situation. Unfortunately, this may reduce net buying significantly.

Dang, that's no bueno.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is only if you are a perma bull on the stock. No one ever lost money when their shares are called away, just like no one lost money by booking profit. Losing potential gains is only an argument against stock manipulation.

That is completely wrong.

In a court of law there is a principle of "being made whole" in response to damage for a claim. Someone who had their shares called away and watched the price zoom away from them has damages equal to the amount it would take to get them back to where they would have been, had they not sold the covered calls. That is the amount of money they "lost" by selling the covered calls. That is very real "damage" and only serious mental yoga can deny that it's a very real loss.

Claiming otherwise is no different than the ridiculous statement "It's ok if I lose it all because it's just 'house money' anyway".

Amateur investors love to invent mental pretzels to protect their fragile egos but that doesn't make them logical or correct. Nor is it a good way to think of things if you want to be a successful investor.

 

[LN1_Casey]

So if all the 12/18 and 12/24 call buyers are screwed. Would the 12/24 and 12/31 put buyers be as well?

Depends on the put buyers I suppose. I was one for a limited time, and I very much enjoyed the process. Oh look, some cash at the risk of, *gasp* buying more TSLA. Whatever will I do with that?

Hahah, just sad that I don't have enough for a covered put any more. Will try to work back towards that next year.

 

[Driver Dave]

Weird week so far.

Like a weatherman saying: there is going to be a blizzard!

And you look outside and... nothing.

But still, you wonder...

what is coming?

and when?

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

So, I've been given some extra thought on recent news of solid state batteries, Tesla's structural batteries and everything that goes on, here is a note I came up with that I thought I'd share with the community.

Cybertruck's structural battery is just the first step.
We know that CT is incorporating a structural approach for batteries where the 4680 batteries just become a part of the structural integrity. I think this is just the first step. Where this design is going to shine is for Tesla Semi program.
I've always thought about why isn't Tesla incorporating their Semi's battery system into the trailer itself. And trailer can always be charging while being loaded/unloaded, providing minimal down time for the semi as they wait to be charged. And the answer has always come down to the fact that if we make the trailer too heavy, the possible load decreases, making it more expensive to run. But the trailer+truck itself is 35,000lbs worth of steel with a max. loaded weight at 80,000lbs. If Tesla can integrate batteries into forming the trailer bed itself, it could potentially create a trailer bed weighting not a whole lot more than 35,000lbs while retaining the same structural integrity to bear the 53,000lbs worth of load on top. This is further confirmed by Elon's comments on how he thinks about airplane design where the oil tank itself is just part of the structural integrity of the fuselage; allowing max amount of fuel loaded onto the plane while not planning for an extra part for fuel.

Solid state batteries are missing the point.
This week, we had news from Toyota that they plan to introduce an EV with solid-state batteries that's able to charge in 10min while providing decent amount of range. Similar approaches are shown by comments from QS technologies. But I think they are missing the point and put too much emphasis on EV and from a wrong POV. Tesla's battery formula program goes onto separating into 3 (or perhaps more) different type of formula depending on the need of each type of vehicle. This is not just for EV, but also the other battery programs that Tesla is currently running, namely the megapack designed for grid infrastructures. First on EV... Toyota and the others are still using the same mentality of ICE vehicles where people are used to "fill up" when they actually go into a gas station. However, as many of us with a Tesla or other EV knows, that's not the way we use EV. We charge at home when it's low and go out in the morning with a "full tank". And in long road trips or where the battery doesn't provide enough for us to get from point A to B, we charge just enough for us to get to the next charging point. This is similar to how we use cellphones. Even though we charge fully at night, if we know that given our usage, it's not going to last the day, we'd charge whenever there's a chance... just enough for us to keep going until we can fully charge it again. So, by focusing too much on charging speed, they actually forget that yes, fast charging is nice, but really what we need is many quick short burst of charges that can get us to the next point of charging. So, the need for extremely fast charging is not actually necessary. The focus should still be on the motor efficiency and longevity of the battery, which I think Tesla is right on track. Furthermore, it's always about economy of scale. The easier and more cost-efficient the manufacturing can be, whether it's the battery itself or the car as a whole, is what going to make a difference between becoming a giant in EV vs. a niche player.

Great post!
re Semi Trailers with structural batteries: I agree. This is the logical way to solve the puzzle of range as Elon joked at Battery Day: structural batteries will have negative mass.
Indeed, it seems that a trailer-with-builtin-battery is a new vehicle category - a new chess piece. When used together with a Tesla Semi, the value is greater than the sum due to vertical integration. But even used alone, together with a competitor ICE Semi, it adds value:
The competitor and its customer get bona fide green bragging rights because it can also have (a few) motors built in, thereby decreasing ICE pollution overall, by co-driving. Used together with a competitor EV-Semi it adds more value still: It allows the competitor to have less battery than otherwise. And perhaps also has a public API for the competitor can access.

It might also, in a very optimistic scenario, be possible to equip the Tesla Trailer with a limited form of self-driving. Think of being able to, at low speed, re-arrange a bunch of trailers and pair them with new Semis. Think logistic yard (don't know the correct term) where a lot of cargo is collected temporarily before being redistributed. Wouldn't it be great if some of those moving and rearrangement could be done by issuing orders to a large group of trailers?
(Assuming prose not code for readability) "For all trailers: This is the new desired configuration for this yard - rearrange yourself within 45 minutes. And also, any trailer below X minutes of travel time with respect to current load weight should charge themselves. And also: Do a complete self-diagnostic, aggregate the errors into a run-state and flag any state above level "minor errors", and put yourselves out of commission if so."
This is where the tightly controlled vertical Tesla stack could shine in a new way: Why only provide Semis and trailers - why not a logistic solutions for fleet owners supporting high level programming API for interconnection and/or custom GUI for sophisticated fleet operations?

re solid state batteries
The world need a lot of batteries for EVs and energy storage. If solid state can be produced cheaply in great quantities - great.

, timestamp: 16m18s and onward discuss much faster charging with batteries Tesla may be developing currently with the guesstimated timeframe of 3 years. So even if fast-charging is one of solid state batteries main selling points, that advantage may not last.

 

[Duffer]

Yeah Duffer, the mental monopoly of "design all cars to consume repair parts" may finally be as obsolete as ICE.

We can only hope.

However, we are talking about "Big Auto" and as far as I can tell they only have 2 basic instincts. Survival and greed. Greed being the stronger of the two as witnessed by their dismissal of the transition to EV's. I'm afraid that those that do survive won't change their time honored and profitable design philosophy.

 

[Off Shore]

I want a camera, joystick and First person Shooter Game Software.

You can have everything but the camera, sorry.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Weird week so far.

Like a weatherman saying: there is going to be a blizzard!

And you look outside and... nothing.

But still, you wonder...

what is coming?

and when?

Kinda like whenever Gordo speaks and says "The competition is coming....' in like 'NEVER!'

 

[MXWing]

You want to know who is The God of Wall Street?
Find the guy that got to decide Closing Cross would be $622.

The 1 million shares or so isn't mountain moving.

Still a chance to make future buyers pay more. No one stepping up to make that happen unfortunately.

 

[Dreadnought]

We don't know Sh)t!!!!

Good summary of the last 200 or so posts. Nominated for QOTD @Artful Dodger.

 

[Singuy]

The house is ALWAYS the house. They get their guaranteed cut whether you are writing the contracts or buying them. The individual is ALWAYS the gambler.

That's not the house. That's the landlord. The house participate in gambling in which the winning odds are in their favor. The landlord collects money no matter what you do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm curious how you arrived at this number, could you kindly elaborate?

TSLA Mkt Cap at the Close on Tue, Dec 8 - "..." on Nov 16

The Mkt Cap values are in my daily After Action reports, or you can compare them to Google's daily charts:



Note that I've added in $5B Mkt Cap for the Dec 11 shares, since S&P DJI documents state that, during the freeze period, weights will not be adjusted except for "corporate events". Issuing new shares qualifies, and I think that's one reason that Tesla wanted to expedite the "At-the-Market" offering so that the shares would be delivered by Dec 11.

 

[EV forever]

You can have everything but the camera, sorry.

I had to click to the 'up' arrow 5 times trying to figure out what fantastic new invention you good folks were so excited about - only to find out you were talking about a .....bidet

Sigh - I need to get more substance to my life than just hanging out on TMC

 

[MC3OZ]

I've just posted on interesting new battery tech here:- All discussion of QuantumScape QS

IMO this is something completely new, and potentially very significant.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I'm HODLing.

The news feed is telling me there will be a drop in the share price post inclusion (implying now is the price to sell at).
The volumes and share price don't make sense to me (again, trying to convince me to sell).
The FUD has increased significantly in the last week or so...

When I think I am being manipulated I take a step back and look at the situation.

• The Tesla fundamentals are great.
• The Tesla Secret Master Plan is being executed almost flawlessly.
• There is no safer investment out there
• There is no better investment in our collective futures.
• I have no need to sell anything

I'm HODLing.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I'm HODLing.

The news feed is telling me there will be a drop in the share price post inclusion (implying now is the price to sell at).
The volumes and share price don't make sense to me (again, trying to convince me to sell).
The FUD has increased significantly in the last week or so...

When I think I am being manipulated I take a step back and look at the situation.

• The Tesla fundamentals are great.
• The Tesla Secret Master Plan is being executed almost flawlessly.
• There is no safer investment out there
• There is no better investment in our collective futures.
• I have no need to sell anything

I'm HODLing.

When I feel like selling before the stock drops, I turn around and ask my accountant how much tax I would pay, every time I turn back and push the HODL button really hard.

 

[Tim S]

Depends on the put buyers I suppose. I was one for a limited time, and I very much enjoyed the process. Oh look, some cash at the risk of, *gasp* buying more TSLA. Whatever will I do with that?

Hahah, just sad that I don't have enough for a covered put any more. Will try to work back towards that next year.

Sounds like you were a put seller, not a put buyer.