Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Been talking to a lot of financial types lately and I am noticing a trend. Whenver I talk to someone and they have an unrreasonable level of dislike towards Elon or Tesla, I can almost guarantee that they are some type of fund manager.

My guess is that there is this inherent adversity between tech and finances vying for dominance of the american pie. On top of that, many financial jobs are being made obsolete by tech.

One other thing I notice they focus on. Is the "driving" part of the car. They seem to suffer from collective alzheimers when it comes to a car's use cases outside of driving. As if, to be in a car for anything but driving it is blasphemy.

Now I can finally understand how so many ppl missed out on tesla.

My finance neighbors generally dislike Elon and Tesla. I’d say they have more sympathy for Bernie Madoff. They tend to not blame the finance industry for the 2007 financial industry melt down and see following traditional media discourse and SEC communications expectations as more important than VW’s dieselgate fraud, which cost stockholders 40 billion in fines and was all a profound issue of disclosure. If VW was a private company and outside of the too big to fail category, they would have already reorganized under bankruptcy. One of those neighbors sold Tesla around $50, split adjusted and sold Qualcomm before it started paying huge dividends. Finance people tend to trade more then invest and confuse climate and weather. Tesla has survived stormy weather, but the global economic climate for EV’s and Tesla is perfect.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla’s Model 3 reputation burnished by JD Power quality survey

"Tesla cars made at the company’s Shanghai Gigafactory were among the highest-quality models sold in China"

At fist I thought "burnished" was negative. I had to look it up. I was wrong.

 

[Remster32]

Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse updated their Q4 delivery estimates today. Deutsche Bank also raised their price target from $500 to $705.

Q4 estimates:
Deutsche Bank: 185K units (up from 176k)
Credit Suisse: 183K units (up from 174K)

 

[CHGolferJim]

This Electrified piece was quite good, in my view. It did leave out specific mention of the Indian BEV's now in production:
Mahindra Electric- Explore range of electric cars in India
Tata Nexon EV - India's Own Electric Compact SUV Powered by Ziptron
Of particular interest is the Tata subscription plan.
In earlier posts on Tesla opportunities in India I did not discuss about the existing production and existing developments.
Mahindra has concentrated on TukTuk and small commercial vehicles mostly, but several others are doing that too. In that respect India is beginning to resemble quite a bit of China early development.
The large questions is how well Tesla can do when they are beginning at very much high end for India. Clearly there expectations initially are modest. The question is really what comes next. I do not expect a GF anytime soon but certainly some type of factory will appear within a year or two. Once they understand how to succeed in India I share an optimism about the future. However...just remember all those who've come before. It is not easy!

Note: I am a cynic about India, partly because my first financial industry line job was doing a workout on a sizable India/Iran/UAE scam that nearly broke the bank I worked for. There is nothing quite like a bad debt workout to lead to understanding the seamier side of life.
Of course my introduction to that subject was in New York with salad oil, real estate and airline deals. Those made me a trifle cynical about some politicians too.

Elon faces quite serious obstacles in India, but I wager that he and several senior executives are very well equipped to understanding how to avoid fraudsters. That is a delicate dance.

Fascinating post. I spent some time in India, but less than you (lived in Karachi for almost a year). Twenty years ago, people said there were more dollar millionaires in India than in the US, wonder if that has changed. Other than the issue of electricity availability, there are certainly enough potential customers to justify small-scale manufacturing to reduce import duties and prices to consumer.

 

[canoemore]

One thing to keep in mind. There will ALWAYS be conditions where vehicles should not be on the road, with a driver or without. People seem to think that FSD means the vehicle will handle ANY condition. This is simply not true and not safe. You can't fight physics. Two tons of moving vehicle, even at a slow speed, on ice covered roads is a recipe for disaster, no matter who or what is in control.

Sometimes you just have to admit that it's better to just stay home by the fire and enjoy your favorite beverage in front of the fire.

Dan

Hence the Boring Company!

 

[elasalle]

This Electrified piece was quite good, in my view. It did leave out specific mention of the Indian BEV's now in production:
Mahindra Electric- Explore range of electric cars in India
Tata Nexon EV - India's Own Electric Compact SUV Powered by Ziptron
Of particular interest is the Tata subscription plan.
In earlier posts on Tesla opportunities in India I did not discuss about the existing production and existing developments.
Mahindra has concentrated on TukTuk and small commercial vehicles mostly, but several others are doing that too. In that respect India is beginning to resemble quite a bit of China early development.
The large questions is how well Tesla can do when they are beginning at very much high end for India. Clearly there expectations initially are modest. The question is really what comes next. I do not expect a GF anytime soon but certainly some type of factory will appear within a year or two. Once they understand how to succeed in India I share an optimism about the future. However...just remember all those who've come before. It is not easy!

Note: I am a cynic about India, partly because my first financial industry line job was doing a workout on a sizable India/Iran/UAE scam that nearly broke the bank I worked for. There is nothing quite like a bad debt workout to lead to understanding the seamier side of life.
Of course my introduction to that subject was in New York with salad oil, real estate and airline deals. Those made me a trifle cynical about some politicians too.

Elon faces quite serious obstacles in India, but I wager that he and several senior executives are very well equipped to understanding how to avoid fraudsters. That is a delicate dance.

https://twitter.com/arunbhats/status/1343766099888807936

 

[dc_h]

I think this is the kind of thing they would do whether or not it was in the bag.

510k instead of 501k would be as significant as 500k instead of 491k.

And adding FSD for 3 months is a zero cost marketing campaign. Free supercharging isn’t. This is just the first time there is much to show of with free FSD over enhanced autopilot.

3 month free FSD is a great way to lay the groundwork for FSD as a service. Not many people want to spend 10,000 cash, after they have their car loan, so uptake on FSD as an after market purchase is going to be a lot lower than 3000 or 5000 FSD, but $100 a month uptake could be pretty high. Giving 1-3 month free FSD for all new purchases could increase subscription service. With only 100,000 cars at $100 a month, that’s 10 million a month. By 2022, when there’s close to 2 million cars on the road, monthly FSD could be 20 to 50 million a month. Very hard to estimate the take rate, but services cash flow should start growing dramatically in 2021 and grow 100% annually for the next 5 years or more.

 

[AudubonB]

Looking at Arhun Bhat S’s information shown in @elasalle’s post -

Can someone familiar with India tell us if the GST numbers he provides are nationwide charges, or are they state-specific?

 

[PlaidCPA]

Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse updated their Q4 delivery estimates today. Deutsche Bank also raised their price target from $500 to $705.

Q4 estimates:
Deutsche Bank: 185K units (up from 176k)
Credit Suisse: 183K units (up from 174K)

View attachment 622483

No wonder. @TroyTeslike published his estimate today. His estimates are accurate (+/- 3%) Seems like investment banks are waiting for his estimate and not doing their own homework.

 

[wipster]

Hey, is it a half day on the us stonk market again tomorrow?

Would be great to end the year on an ATH!

 

[MP3Mike]

Hey, is it a half day on the us stonk market again tomorrow?

No.

 

[scaesare]

Having gone to school for, and worked in, auto repair and auto body in my younger years, I can say confidently that panel gaps come from improper attachment of the body panel in question, not in panel manufacturing. In auto body repair for example, the individual tasked with reassembling the damaged vehicle after getting the frame or subframes straightened/repaired has tools that assist in making sure the panel lines are straight, lie evenly with adjacent panels, and match other panel gaps. More often than not this required two people (hoods, tailgates, door, etc, are heavy and awkward to hold by oneself)--it can be difficult, time consuming work. I personally found it to be the hardest part of my job.

Sure, you can get a warped replacement panel once in a while, but generally that is found upon delivery and dealt with before it is painted and installed. Regarding new vehicles, I've not worked in a modern assembly factory, but I'd imagine panel gaps still arise from human error or inattention--not the automated manufacturing of the panel.

Panel gaps are not hard things to identify and correct--they just require time and the motivation to do it right.

Appreciate the insight.

However I think the reason why body panels require "proper" manual fitment is precisely because of the variences in their tolerances due to manufacturing. This seems to be backed up by the wording in Tesla's Body Panel Assembly Clamp patent:

"“The present invention was derived in light of the foregoing challenges, and it is an object of the present invention to provide a clamping assembly that provides flexibility in securing parts that are manufactured to larger dimensional tolerances and in which play is necessary between adjacent parts during, or after, assembly. The clamping assembly of the present invention can accommodate misalignment of the part or parts owing to variances in one or both parts during manufacture and/or necessary play between the parts by allowing flexibility in adjusting the positions of the parts relative to one another in one direction while still securing the parts to one another. That is, the clamping assembly secures together a pair of manufactured parts, in which the manufactured parts require play along at least one direction while confining the movement of the parts in a second direction."

Thus, of the items @MC3OZ mentioned in his post, I believe the variance necessitating the proper manual fitting you refer to is much more likely to be the panels rather than the frame. If the panels had very tight tolerances, than they could jsut have a robot install them perfectly every time, rather than having to have a human manually fit them.

 

[Fobble]

TLSA goes down on bad news, down on good news, and up on no news.

Yes, yes indeed

 

[Jack6591]

My finance neighbors generally dislike Elon and Tesla. I’d say they have more sympathy for Bernie Madoff. They tend to not blame the finance industry for the 2007 financial industry melt down and see following traditional media discourse and SEC communications expectations as more important than VW’s dieselgate fraud, which cost stockholders 40 billion in fines and was all a profound issue of disclosure. If VW was a private company and outside of the too big to fail category, they would have already reorganized under bankruptcy. One of those neighbors sold Tesla around $50, split adjusted and sold Qualcomm before it started paying huge dividends. Finance people tend to trade more then invest and confuse climate and weather. Tesla has survived stormy weather, but the global economic climate for EV’s and Tesla is perfect.

America’s partisan divide is the line in North America where the rivers of common sense flow in opposite directions.


JB Leonard

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those cotton-pick'n manipulators are raising the SP

TLSA goes down on bad news, down on good news, and up on no news.

Yup, it's those durn Robinhoodlums and their $600 stimlus checks.

/S

 

[Sancho]

Anyone else here feeling that the closing price for 2020 will be...$695 ?

 

[FireMedic]

Mom woke up to find this beauty parked in the driveway. It’s perfect...Panel gapless!

 

[YAWD]

https://twitter.com/arunbhats/status/1343766099888807936

View attachment 622490

I want to be as optimistic as anyone about Tesla's chances in India but Indians who buy $75K cars in India do not drive those cars themselves. They are for most part driven by chauffeurs. Tesla cars are imho designed around the driver and unless one drives the car by themselves, they are not going to figure out why the product is loved across the world. I am afraid that this will become another vanity product in the country.

 

[UncaNed]

Mom woke up to find this beauty parked in the driveway. It’s perfect...Panel gapless!View attachment 622503

No... I'm pretty sure there's a big problem if there's literally no gaps.

 

[Fobble]

I want to be as optimistic as anyone about Tesla's chances in India but Indians who buy $75K cars in India do not drive those cars themselves. They are for most part driven by chauffeurs. Tesla cars are imho designed around the driver and unless one drives the car by themselves, they are not going to figure out why the product is loved across the world. I am afraid that this will become another vanity product in the country.

The same statement was also said for China a few years back .... With about 1.4 billion of population of growing income, there should be plenty of takers