Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Haha I’m technically cheating on them, but your much better. That place is filled with clowns

And that's not the worse part. Last I checked, Ihub was still owned by a person I consider a bully without a moral compass named Matt who was sentenced to 4 years in federal prison for one of his pump-and-dump schemes. They caught him red-handed. I ran into him a few years before he was busted when he started iHub (as a young kid, no less) and I subscribed before I figured out he was using it to pump various stocks. He didn't like that I was exposing his pump-n-dump BS by using actual facts so he terminated my lifetime membership without any refund. I didn't want to waste the time challenging it because it wasn't that much money. He's a real work of art, an ugly person, and the aesthetics of his site reflect that. But, yeah, iHub is the primary venue he used for his p-n-d schemes. The place is a real cesspool.

Friends don't let friends go there, not even for cheap thrills.

 

[jhm]

Appears lumped into GOOG.

I think Alphabet's market caps is the sum of both classes of stock.
GOOG $1,222B
GOOGL $1,216B

 

[EVMeister]

The best part of the weekend for many Tesla investors approaches... The end.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

people seem to be jumping the gun massively on this:
Tesla's $25,000 Electric Car Coming Sooner Than Expected, 2022 Launch Hinted - Vehiclesuggest
But I do think enough people with FOMO will read these articles this weekend and buy some shares on monday. I expect a jump up, and a slow fall back over the next few weeks when no new vehicle is announced or shown.
...
of course Q4 results and any other news may well overshadow that, but who knows. Its TSLA so you might as well just sit and HOLD.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The best part of the weekend for many Tesla investors approaches... The end.

This one has been unbearable. I tried to get so drunk Friday that I would just wake in the pre-market but it didn't work. Now I got Florida Boomer Man yelping about politics!

For Friday's close I'm going with.......$899.95.......or maybe $939.95

 

[WarpedOne]

For Friday's close I'm going with.......$899.95.......or maybe $939.95

Gimme ten fiddy!

 

[UkNorthampton]

I am now getting close to my number as well, and decades earlier than I expected.

I need to seriously start thinking about now retired people manage their lives and money. For now, I am thinking of starting sell some covered calls against only my shares which count as LTCG, this protects downside risk but also lets me sell shares at a price I'm happy with if the calls hit for the lucky buyers in order to begin moving towards a retirement footing. I still plan on holding a large number of TSLA shares long term but I will need to convert at least some of my portfolio to dividend-generating instead in order to actually quit my job.

I know there's other guys who are suddenly moving retirement plans up, what are your strategies?

Sell shares when needed.

Spoiler: Details

I put info into a spreadsheet

• number of shares
• price now
• inflation
• expected yearly increase in share price (* will estimate & then goal seek)
• minimum income
• how many shares need to be sold each month for income (not whole numbers, easier)
• rows for every month
• some other stuff
• added graph

Then I put in expected inflation (5-15%, wage or money supply) & use goal seek to find out what I need to know

• expected yearly increase in share price
• when shares run out
• other stuff

Beyond a certain point, the difference between inflation & increase in share price means never run out of shares. In reality in 10 years, I'd reassess & move some money into ARK/ Boring etc if looks right.

My point is that just by selling shares, you get a 'retirement income' - just as long as you have enough to last, give to next generation etc. Really odd stock market movements don't affect as much as doing options, where you risk a lot.

======================
On another tab I have amounts of retirement money at 3% (was 4% but being conservative, longer than 20 years retirement), I then looked up typical UK levels of monthly income vs quality of life. I think £4,000 / month for a couple was luxurious (multiple holidays)

Against each row/amount (eg £1,000,000 / £2,500 per month) I put the type of lifestyle & level of treats.

I then checked against UK Government figures (ONS) & various forums. Seems £40-45,000 / year in UK is when everyone thinks you have enough as they usually don't list higher levels. Low levels go start around £12/15/20,000 per year depending on website

• @ 3% - you need
• £1,500,000 ($2 million) fund for
• £45,000 ($61,000) a year NET (tax free wrappers) or
• £3,750 per month
• approx £54,900 equivalent GROSS salary (if paying taxes, but excluding commute & other costs)

(UK, so free healthcare, but £2,000 a year in property/NI social insurance taxes) - but I'll also get a state pension on top (rules change & only when much older). I'll still get "child benefit" on top! (not much)


Random links I just found, but better ones around:-
How much will you need to retire?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

people seem to be jumping the gun massively on this:
Tesla's $25,000 Electric Car Coming Sooner Than Expected, 2022 Launch Hinted - Vehiclesuggest
But I do think enough people with FOMO will read these articles this weekend and buy some shares on monday. I expect a jump up, and a slow fall back over the next few weeks when no new vehicle is announced or shown.
...
of course Q4 results and any other news may well overshadow that, but who knows. Its TSLA so you might as well just sit and HOLD.

the buying we saw last week was not investors that are buying because of news like the 25k car. The MIC Y news and order created some hype, but the buying has everything to do with active fund managers....who are not going to care about the news unless it’s bad news, in hopes of buying on a dip. Not saying we continue rallying like last week. Just that there’s no real sellers besides those that have certain sell targets as the share price goes higher. I don’t think those sellers will be in enough volume to counter the continual buying from active fund managers. So more likely we see a slow drift upwards

 

[Singuy]

This one has been unbearable. I tried to get so drunk Friday that I would just wake in the pre-market but it didn't work. Now I got Florida Boomer Man yelping about politics!

For Friday's close I'm going with.......$899.95.......or maybe $939.95

Wow, you guys are this bullish this upcoming week huh? That AH drop after Friday's close doesn't inspire any confidence. So I am expecting a pull back. At least going into this week I wouldn't be super disappointed if it happens.

 

[StealthP3D]

This trade had a 92% probability of ending in my favor, but alas, a record 11 days updays in a row of an awesome rally caught me off guard.

A lot of trades that have a high probability of ending in your favor have terrible risk/reward ratio's. And human's have human traits that tend to make them very bad at judging these things.

This why the common wisdom that options should be left to the pro's is mostly correct, as far as adopting a 'system' and playing them regularly is concerned. I only play them very judiciously, for example, if I have a strong conviction the market is pricing them wildly inaccurately as was the case at the middle/end of 2019. As it turns out, the market has been under-valuing TSLA calls with expirations up to this point (so buying calls has been wildly profitable) but that was not as obvious through 2020 since the direction of TSLA's share price was not as certain as it was in 2019 (and looking into 2020) and the premiums were much higher. Remember, risk/reward. Selling calls has not been kind. At all.

Most systems that people play tend to have small positive and regular returns if you ignore the true cost of the system in terms of lost opportunity (and that's before considering taxes if it's happening in an account that will owe taxes each year). IMO, it's very short-sighted to play this kind of system on a regular basis, without a compelling reason why it's a unique situation. The amount of money that tends to get left on the table makes the regular profits look like lunch money.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wow, you guys are this bullish this upcoming week huh? That AH drop after Friday's close doesn't inspire any confidence. So I am expecting a pull back. At least going into this week I wouldn't be super disappointed if it happens.

Why put so much emphasis on after hours trading which the vast majority of the time means nothing and ignore the trading throughout the day?

We saw an intraday consolation with stronger volume coming in at the end of the day leading to a high close. Sure Monday could be a sell off...but the trading action on Friday indicated the rally isn’t over

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this afternoon: Exclusive: Tesla hunts for design chief to create cars for China - sources

Excerpt:

Tesla Inc is searching for a design director in China, part of efforts to open a "full-function" studio in Shanghai or Beijing and design electric cars tailored to Chinese consumer tastes, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

The U.S. carmaker's human resources managers, as well as several headhunters, have been trawling the industry over the past four months, the sources said.

They are looking for "bi-cultural" candidates with 20 or more years of experience who are familiar with Chinese tastes and can bridge the gaps between China and the United States, they added.

Some candidates have been interviewed by Tesla's global design chief Franz von Holzhausen, according to the people, though it was not clear how many potential candidates had been approached by the company and recruiters.

 

[bkp_duke]

This one has been unbearable. I tried to get so drunk Friday that I would just wake in the pre-market but it didn't work. Now I got Florida Boomer Man yelping about politics!

For Friday's close I'm going with.......$899.95.......or maybe $939.95

982.04, my out of the butt guess

 

[StealthP3D]

A sold cover call never has 'losses' unless by that you mean less gains. In which case, same argument, anyone without every dollar available to them in stock (or ITM options) has losses. Or anyone who didn't sell calls just above the price at expiration has losses.

That's faulty thinking that throws first principles to the ground and stomps all over them.

In what kind of world is taking an action that causes a small gain in return for giving up a huge gain not considered a losing decision? That is no way to become wealthy. It's called "penny wise and pound foolish". It all comes down to risk/reward ratio and the twisted way humans tend to think of it in a distorted manner.

I'm not saying an investor should beat themselves up over it because it's going to happen all the time (when you apply it as you have above). But the goal is to make it happen less often, not more.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

982.04, my out of the butt guess

Jonas...is that you with the random number generator again?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wow, you guys are this bullish this upcoming week huh? That AH drop after Friday's close doesn't inspire any confidence. So I am expecting a pull back. At least going into this week I wouldn't be super disappointed if it happens.

With covered calls on nearly all my shares, I'd be overjoyed with a cool off week. I just don't see it happening. The buying we saw last week accelerated right into the close. I think it's not done and we're also in one of those self-reinforcing cycles where short covering and delta hedging follows normal buying.

Now that we're in the New Year, I think this mess keeps going to a peak point where nearly all benchmarkers have been satisfied. No clue where that is.

 

[Discoducky]

Anyone know where to find a list of all the funds that are benchmarked to the S&P? Google searches are not yielding much helpful information...

 

[Singuy]

That's faulty thinking that throws first principles to the ground and stomps all over them.

In what kind of world is taking an action that causes a small gain in return for giving up a huge gain not considered a losing decision? That is no way to become wealthy. It's called "penny wise and pound foolish". It all comes down to risk/reward ratio and the twisted way humans tend to think of it in a distorted manner.

I'm not saying an investor should beat themselves up over it because it's going to happen all the time (when you apply it as you have above). But the goal is to make it happen less often, not more.

Not how I see it with call options because there's a time limit attached to it. You are not betting that Tesla wouldn't be a multi-trillion dollar company one day, you are betting that it wouldn't be x price by x date. You are HOPING for some free premiums as you wait until Tesla become multi-trillion. But hey if there's a short squeeze there's a short squeeze. But no one is betting on a short squeeze, just the fundamentals of the company.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Someone convinced you to take profits, was wrong and it ended up being a giant mistake.
Same person admitted being wrong but then concluded profit taking is never bad.

Another friend called you crazy and said TSLA could go to zero.
Same friend said your TSLA stock could disappear in one day.

Maybe you should stop talking to people about TSLA. Seems to be an exercise in frustration that sometimes leads you to make bad decisions. The statements "profit taking is never bad" and "TSLA could go to zero" are ignorant beyond description. Those two are unsalvageable. Don't waste your time.

I have some really good friends who have bought TSLA after asking me serious questions and being genuinely interested in investing thanked me about it. These friends shared their investment with their childhood friends about investing. However, they came to me to ask questions about investing. I am always happy to share what I know about a company but some of them turned out to be a complete waste of my time to discuss with.

However, if someone genuinely asks me info about Tesla or TSLA, I am still happy to share how Tesla will change the world and how we can be a part of it with TSLA. If they disagree, I don’t give a crap anymore.

 

[Spacep0d]

I'm bullish for this week simply because I don't think we've seen the end of the ramp up from the SR+ Model Y release.