Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Just uninstall your brokerage app on your phone

Cell phone brokerage apps? Never installed one although I considered it many times! I became a multi-millionaire rather rapidly by placing a huge bet on Qualcomm almost two years before the market recognized Qualcomm's place in the wireless data world. I knew it would happen, I just didn't know when. So, for two years I just kept increasing my position as my conviction became even stronger. The price went lower so I bought more, I couldn't believe how cheap it had become! This played out very much in the same way as with TSLA.

I always bought the latest phone technology and subscribed to the wireless carrier offering the latest (fastest) wireless data rates. Every time Qualcomm introduced a new revision I would wait anxiously for a carrier to roll it out. I didn't need wireless data (or a cellphone for that matter) but I understood it would transform what a cellphone was at the time into a computer connected to the Internet 24/7. And I had a lot of money bet on this, most of my profits from MSFT and SBUX. I had the cable that connected my phone to the PCMCIA modem card in my laptop so I could get the fastest wireless data right on my laptop because the earliest digital cell phones could not display webpages on their monochrome screens with only 240 x 320 resolution.

But even with the advent of high-resolution smartphone displays, I've never felt the need to install my broker's trading app on my phone.

This is one more huge benefit of the long-term buy/hold strategy that I love. I can live life without feeling tethered to my stocks. I would probably be poorer, both financially and in life experiences, if I had installed a brokerage app on my phone or decided, against all the evidence, that the way to financial freedom was not buy/hold but "smart" trading.

So, I agree, uninstall your brokerage apps, you don't need them and they probably have numerous negative impacts on your life, financial and otherwise.

 

[capster]

Did you consider rolling your calls for higher calls, at dates further out? The loss you see in current call is picked up by the person buying the strike further out. Worst case, your shares will get exercised at a higher strike. If SP keeps going up, new strikes will open up.

Unless FSD is announced, there is going to be a reversion to the mean etc, once the S&P and post S&P bench mark buying slows.

Personally, I have many CC's and given the latest it looks like I have March 23 1600's as highest strike, furtherest out Options to roll up to, before I contemplate closing the CC's at a loss. Given this steep SP rise, even trying to maintain Delta's can't be done.

( the worst time to talk about CC's is when the SP keeps going up)

Umm, which mean do you mean if you take my meaning? lol

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1347470145309061120?s=21

Squeeeeeeeeeeeze....

edit: from the opinions I’ve seen, it seems we are still in a slow-motion infinity squeeze. Because of the extended time between S&P announcement and inclusion and the delay of benchmark fund buying, what many thought might happen in three days is happening in eight weeks. Works for me either way.

 

[lafrisbee]

On a related note:
Has anyone locked at how good a predictor Max Pain has been for the actual closing price at expiry over a range of expiry dates and as a function of (e.g. 1-5) days to expiry ?
Based purely on my imperfect memory, it seems that until quite recently the Max Pain was an unnervingly good predictor of the coming Friday's closing price.

I took this as an indication that large scale sellers of options were in fact able to "supply liquidity" by naked short selling, allowing them a rather fine control of the closing price - ensuring them enough profits to allow them to subsequently cover their naked short positions.

This mechanism now seems completely gone. Which could be due to a combination of sustained buying pressure and naked short seller's fear of a sudden stock split.

So I would be curious to also know what people think of the (apparent?) historical usability of the Max Pain and for example this week's max pain as a predictor for this week's closing price.

I got no book-learning on the subject. But as an American I got the right to remove all doubt...
I figure the MM Boys were making a passel of money on calls and puts by manipulating the SP to MaxPain on Friday's close. I don't understand all the ways they were doing it but dang, I believe they were.
But I also learned that they mostly know when to sit back and let the stock adjust itself. If they didn't they'd burn up all their "resources". Whatever "resources" are?
When I first was shown MaxPain I did not give it any creed. But I came around when I couldn't explain which way the SP went in relation to the news or sentiment. If a good ol boy that was really a money-grubbing bastard had the power he'd do just what the MM's do. He'd let the stock look like it was going to take off and get people to buy calls, and then he'd send it down getting people that were concerned with their winnings to buy puts. And then he'd settle it out at the end of the race and declare a tie, and no one won...or at least as few won as possible...except him.
But then sometimes he didn't control the event, and he'd just make a little money. And like now I figure he's just sitting back with his shares and just letting the market seek a new price. Once it is there he can start his manipulations again... Unless there's something else I don't know about.

A couple of times I felt that the MM's got wiped out, or that the Company itself got too big to be played with by the MM's. But by the end of the week it became obvious I was wrong.

I'd like to make it clear I don't believe MaxPain is controlled. What I believe is that MM's can recognise a volatile group of buyers and sellers (You all call it a volatile stock when I don't. I think a volatile stock is volatile because the company is volatile, and not the bunch of yahoos that trade in it.) A group of volatile traders can be manipulated with artificial movement or propaganda.
Each time I've seen the stock soar in the past year I believed there was a chance the stock had gotten to big to manipulate, but it is more about manipulating the traders not the SP. The SP is doesn't make money for the MM's. It's the fools that they can manipulate. (Some of you play the SP by using what you see the MM's doing. That is different.)

Now, well? Perhaps the MM's have gone to the side for awhile. Maybe they will go find easier money. But TSLA seems to be attracting a lot of "new traders, I wonder if the S&P 500 big boys will be OK with the stock moving for no reason other than the MM's to keep fleecing the sheep?

 

[StealthP3D]

U.S. finds no defect in review of 662,000 Tesla vehicles

Wow! That's the most defect free cars Tesla has ever made in a row!

/s

 

[Singuy]

Wow! That's the most defect free cars Tesla has ever made in a row!

/s

LoL that was not the headline the short seller who started this was looking for...it's actually misleading in a positive way for Tesla with just that headline.

 

[Rarity]

Go read the Shorting Oil thread, reality is much closer to the exact opposite. This isn't "Russia gaining power as a new swing producer", this is the further erosion of OPEC+ and SA acting way outside their own interest to hold it together.

I'm not saying that Russia is acting as a swing producer. They aren't. SA and Russia are more or less reverting to their old roles of swing producer keeping OPEC together and unlimited producer outside of OPEC, respectively. As you say, SA is acting way outside their own interest to prop up the price and to end the glut.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I am now getting close to my number as well, and decades earlier than I expected.

I need to seriously start thinking about now retired people manage their lives and money. For now, I am thinking of starting sell some covered calls against only my shares which count as LTCG, this protects downside risk but also lets me sell shares at a price I'm happy with if the calls hit for the lucky buyers in order to begin moving towards a retirement footing. I still plan on holding a large number of TSLA shares long term but I will need to convert at least some of my portfolio to dividend-generating instead in order to actually quit my job.

I know there's other guys who are suddenly moving retirement plans up, what are your strategies?

 

[insaneoctane]

Any other owner/stock holders share my conundrum?

• I want FSD Beta for my car right NOW
• I don't want all FSD owners to have to Beta software because they won't be responsible, they'll have an accident and the news will tank my stock and jeopardize future release schedules

So, I sit and wait and don't bitch...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Any other owner/stock holders share my conundrum?

• I want FSD Beta for my car right NOW
• I don't want all FSD owners to have to Beta software because they won't be responsible, they'll have an accident and the news will tank my stock and jeopardize future release schedules

So, I sit and wait and don't bitch...

Is "80% of drivers think they are above average" the joke you are going for here?

 

[Christine69420]

I am now getting close to my number as well, and decades earlier than I expected.

I need to seriously start thinking about now retired people manage their lives and money. For now, I am thinking of starting sell some covered calls against only my shares which count as LTCG, this protects downside risk but also lets me sell shares at a price I'm happy with if the calls hit for the lucky buyers in order to begin moving towards a retirement footing. I still plan on holding a large number of TSLA shares long term but I will need to convert at least some of my portfolio to dividend-generating instead in order to actually quit my job.

I know there's other guys who are suddenly moving retirement plans up, what are your strategies?

It's a good idea to look outside this thread from time to time.

Early retirement strategies

When to retire?

 

[capster]

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1347470145309061120?s=21

View attachment 626419

Squeeeeeeeeeeeze....

edit: from the opinions I’ve seen, it seems we are still in a slow-motion infinity squeeze. Because of the extended time between S&P announcement and inclusion and the delay of benchmark fund buying, what many thought might happen in three days is happening in eight weeks. Works for me either way.

Absolutely, though ‘infinity’ is a tad strong in my view.

The media continues to provide confirmation as well. The steady drizzle of articles — those casting shade in various ways on EV’s, Tesla, and Musk; those decrying a bubble or frothing about mania; those casting about for distractors such as fuel cells and hydrogen or improbable competitors — that suggest retail investors walk away from TSLA are provided for a reason: Big players still need to buy and want the little fish conned into selling.

This is consistent with the management of the rise that we have seen, especially in the last two weeks of December. While I personally expect to see more ‘baffling’ gyrations as the pros milk the noobs in the options markets, the underlying trend is up. There will be slow dances mixed with quick steps for awhile yet. Do watch your step.

To update an old saying, keep your TSLA shares and someday they will keep you.

Not advice or a forecast. Actual conditions may vary.

 

[Causalien]

What's this all about? I've seen a few similar tweets from this guy having a go at Elon. It seems like harassment to me.

View attachment 626401

This the part I hate while aiming for excellence in anything. Was discussing about this with a top tier hockey athelete. Ppl start using you as a dummy to attack. Ppl start telling you how you sould do things. It's so weird and you can see it coming from miles away. All attempt at de-escalation fails and just gets twisted into something that hurt their feelings.

 

[JustMe]

I'm not saying that Russia is acting as a swing producer. They aren't. SA and Russia are more or less reverting to their old roles of swing producer keeping OPEC together and unlimited producer outside of OPEC, respectively. As you say, SA is acting way outside their own interest to prop up the price and to end the glut.

Gosh it sure would be a shame if the oil market collapsed

 

[Ratanpara]

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1347470145309061120?s=21

View attachment 626419

Squeeeeeeeeeeeze....

edit: from the opinions I’ve seen, it seems we are still in a slow-motion infinity squeeze. Because of the extended time between S&P announcement and inclusion and the delay of benchmark fund buying, what many thought might happen in three days is happening in eight weeks. Works for me either way.

S&P Tracking funds got screwed, They thought they were doing a smart things by not buying when it went in index at $695.00 in hope of stock going down after index inclusion, now index looks smarter than manage fund, any fund underperform S&P 500 is such a big deal, if they can't beat index, why investor pay higher management fee than S&P 500 index funds.

 

[WattsHappening]

I am now getting close to my number as well, and decades earlier than I expected.

I need to seriously start thinking about now retired people manage their lives and money. For now, I am thinking of starting sell some covered calls against only my shares which count as LTCG, this protects downside risk but also lets me sell shares at a price I'm happy with if the calls hit for the lucky buyers in order to begin moving towards a retirement footing. I still plan on holding a large number of TSLA shares long term but I will need to convert at least some of my portfolio to dividend-generating instead in order to actually quit my job.

I know there's other guys who are suddenly moving retirement plans up, what are your strategies?

I think your strategy is sound given your circumstances. I also look forward to a time in the future when I can use OTM covered calls as a means of generating good income while still providing upside.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

As usual a political discussion turned into a mud fight (posts now removed). No more talk of Bernie Sanders’ attacks on billionaires and of wealth inequality.

The oil price isn’t very on topic either.

~~~ And a further TWENTY posts that either didn’t pass the political No-Go test OR were victims of collateral damage also are gone. Note: IF you believe your collateral damage post both dealt with Tesla AND was worthy of re-submitting, you are welcome to re-post. ~~~

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes but there have to be calculations on how the float changed through buying in the last weeks after inclusion. This price action for 11 green trading days is very unnatural to my eye.

Maybe close your eye then.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Elon won't be able to sustain a Mars colony long, if the USA don't fix their issues ASAP. Many issues are directly related to the rise of inequality.

By the way, I'm very cash poor too... with a handful of millions $ of Tesla shares in my account. Very poor. For some reasons, saying that does not persuade those around me who won't survive in the long run unless we help them big time.

Can anyone explain how Tesla can succeeds in its mission without first finding some climate justice? Switching to EV and solar is amazing for plenty of reasons, but it won't change the financial situation of the majority of the population.

What has a Mars colony got to do with USA (Starlink terms & conditions)?

Plus Elon is a supporter of Universal Basic Income & Universal Healthcare.

There is a video of him being told that Australians can't afford electricity (where lack of air-con can kill). You can see his eyes well up with tears (nearly). This was around the giant battery time.

Elon's a nice bloke overall.

Edit: posted after Fred posted. I'll stop.

 

[Mo City]

I'm itchin' and twitchin' waiting on futures to open in less than an hour.