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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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New battery tech is great, and will sell more S and X ‘s to enthusiasts.
However, no new exterior colours, cream interior that looks straight out of 1986, and wood with white interior that on the surface( pun-intended) just clashes. They brought in a yoke but still want dated wood trim. Well maybe if tesla had a better website where you could actually see the full interior like every other manufacturer, I might think differently, but I doubt it.

The arachnid wheels are nice, but why keep silver wheels As base when you took out all the chrome? At least do gun metal grey or something that goes together.

Maybe slight bump in sales initially, if the yoke turns out ok on long drives (admitting lay my hands at 12 o’clock sometimes) but then likely back to flat declining s and x sales.
 
I haven’t heard anyone mention the revelation that the new S&X apparently ship with console-competitive gaming hardware? Who cares about steering wheel shape or upholstery color options? We’re talking about a whole different feature class that no one else is competing with.

so often commentary on Tesla features reminds me of critics of the early iPhone who knocked it for lacking features prominent on other “luxury” cell phones. Totally missing the point of what made the iPhone upscale. Put all the bells and whistles and fancy materials you want in a car - in few years no amount of that will make up for the luxury of having a car drive you around while you read, play your favorite video game, or work.
 
Some of my additions to what everyone else said:

50% growth:
”Meaningfully above 50%. I think here he meant meaningfully above 750k, not for example ”above 50%” or some other interpretation. Is 800k meaningfully above 750k? Imo no. 850k yes. 1M yes. So I take this to mean that Tesla believe they will do 850k+ vehicles, which is above their 50%/year CAGR that they aim to have for the next decade. Later he said that they will be meaningfully above 50% for the next years, so I assume this means that they intend to do >50% growth for the next 4+ years. At some point I think they intend to do less than 50% but to a CAGR of 50%

DOJO:
He said Dojo is the best neural net training computer in the world by an order of magnitude. I assume this means performance per watt is ~10x that of Google TPUv3 for video labelling. Which is insane! The will offer this as a service if other’s need neural net training. The he said something inaudible about video, waiting for transcript, but I assume that he means that Dojo is for video, not for other ML-applications. Dojo will be useful for getting the number of miles per accident from 100% of human to 2000% of human.

Licensing FSD/Autobidder:
In discussion with Auto OEM to license FSD. I wonder if this is to Germans who given up and are now considering if they should sell their soul to Tesla or Google. It should be to some company that has not comitted to having Lidar in their next flagship product, so don’t think it’s Lucid or NIO. Probably not GM. Maybe Ford, Volvo or heck even Toyota.

4680:
Tesla think they can achieve 50% of 200GWh in 2022. That is 100GWh. Let’s assume they manage to get to 90% in Q4, 70% in Q3, 30% in Q2 and 10% in Q1 for an average of 50%. If that is true that is 2.5GWh in Q1 2022. Enough for 25000 100kWh cybertrucks? Plus whatever they managed to make in 2021.

Service:
Be able to track where your service technican is on his way to you. This sounds a lot like they have done the software for ridesharing and just decided to reuse the code for service. Which indicates that they have gotten pretty far on developing their ridesharing app. It also sounds like Tesla intends to have some custom hardware/software in their service cars, maybe even make their own service cars? Cybertruck service cars?

FSD Subscriptions:
1% takerate in China. Not great for margins. I think they will hope that subscription will save them, give every customer 1month for free then they have to pay say $299/month or pay $10k for lifetime. But they will probably wait with offering subscriptions until they have wide release that they believe is good enough to charge money for. Which will be in ”next month” in US I assume. Which I take to mean wide US release of FSD and subscription in Feb/March.

Regulatory for FSD summary:
US: Dynamic space, overall not limiting on rule basis. They are working with regulators to demonstrate high relability.
RoW: ”fairly dynamic”
EU: Slowdown, not reaching past lvl3 now
China: interest on working on lvl4 and lvl5 later this year
Leadership in US looking for relability.

China lvl4/lvl5 this year?! That would be pretty awesome on so many levels. If China allows it and it works there I assume pressure on EU and US to not be backwards will be high.

Battery suppliers:
They will take as much as they can produce. I assume that means that Tesla are willing to start storage production in China as soon as suppliers have saturated their demand for vehicle cells.
Good point that they are likely far along on their ridesharing app. I remember when I bought my first Tesla car, reading language in the purchase contract about my rights under the “Tesla Network”. Tesla engaged their lawyers on deeply thinking through and executing contractual language for a service to be first available years in the future. If they’ve got the lawyers working overtime on this, we can only imagine how hard the user interface designers, among many others, have been working, for several years now.
 
Today’s conference call had high EQ and demonstrated the pathway even more clearly.
1. Saying that he wasn’t going to be the CEO forever shows some humility and understanding of real life. Feels like a real person and he even says that he’s more into the technical and engineering aspects. Versus saying I am it and I know everything.
2. Focusing on batteries and their production is clearly the key to next level growth. Someone should’ve asked what size or footprint battery factory is needed and how many battery factories are planned over the next five years.
3. Did not hear anything about how they manage to achieve the lower cost of solar in the US. This should have been asked.
4. Another high EQ moment was saying that of course renewable sources of energy have some disadvantages too which can be mitigated by energy storage
5. Licensing of FSD software was also another sign of maturity and someone with a mission to help people and keep them safe and also shows a great pathway for growth—$$
6. Licensing or use of the supercharger network was also another great moment in the call. The only news we hear now is how each company is going to build a fleet of a EVs with multiple models. But where are they going to charge on road trips, this is a unique situation to the US where distances can be large.
 
And it floats! :eek:

iu
 
I like the refreshed S and kind of want one. But compared to the long range S, the tri motor cybertruck accelerates faster, has almost 100 more miles of range and costs $10k less. The Cybertruck is just too good of a deal.

I love my 2018 S and have CT reservation, but I want the new S and the X. Tesla is so awesome and the future is almost unbelievable.
 
New battery tech is great, and will sell more S and X ‘s to enthusiasts.
However, no new exterior colours, cream interior that looks straight out of 1986, and wood with white interior that on the surface( pun-intended) just clashes. They brought in a yoke but still want dated wood trim. Well maybe if tesla had a better website where you could actually see the full interior like every other manufacturer, I might think differently, but I doubt it.

The arachnid wheels are nice, but why keep silver wheels As base when you took out all the chrome? At least do gun metal grey or something that goes together.

Maybe slight bump in sales initially, if the yoke turns out ok on long drives (admitting lay my hands at 12 o’clock sometimes) but then likely back to flat declining s and x sales.

The specs are great, way better than any competitor currently has..

The interior looks functionally great, it seems to me a simple wrap over the wood trim should eliminate some of your concerns..

I would also like to see more choice of paint colors, especially for Model S/X and Roadster.
 
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The specs are great, way better than any competitor currently has..

The interior looks functionally great, it seems to me a simple wrap over the wood trim should eliminate some of your concerns..

I would also like to see more choice of paint colors, especially for Model S/X and Roadster.

New paint color options will be coming to Fremont as soon as they upgrade the paint facility - likely after Giga Berlin.
 
...no new exterior colours, cream interior that looks straight out of 1986, and wood with white interior that on the surface( pun-intended) just clashes....

Glad I'm getting a Cybertruck so I can ignore which colors and trim are out of fashion this year. The only clash I'll worry about is whether the paint I scraped off a coal-roller clashes with the wood I tore off a tree.
 
Model S and X are boutique models, they aren't going to make a bunch of steps for them.

Elon himself has said they keep S and X around for emotional attachment, they haven't been relevant to the company's financial success since the 3 launched.

Elon was deflecting when he made those comments.

If Tesla sells 57k Model S/X with an ASP of $90k they are not very relevant.

IF Tesla sells 110k Model S/X with an ASP of $110k they are quit relevant not only to financials but Tesla's non traditional marketing.

This refresh should have been done 18 months ago.