bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Yeah, but I love these days. Been shaking the sofa cushions like mad. Buy the dip!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah, but I love these days. Been shaking the sofa cushions like mad. Buy the dip!
It's only some wind and a little rain. I've seen worse.
Paracelsus
Active Member
Great post - fully agree. Hidden just below the ‘feel good’ surface appears to be another layer of protectionism for the not-so-big 3 auto makers that made a conscious decision to not transition when it mattered most - with EVs and with EV charging infrastructure. A part of us should be upset that we are once again bailing out Detroit and that our kids and grandkids will be paying for their failed EV transition and their EV charging infrastructure after Elon showed the world over the last decade that this wasn’t necessary. And it literally feels as if language in this bill, and all the public discussions surrounding it might also be designed to hurt Tesla’s 2021 delivery numbers by creating a situation where buyers may delay their Q1 purchases, followed by an unnecessary cap per manufacturer which only Tesla could be hurt by in 2021 as well. And ‘conveniently’ if they delay signing the bill they may prolong Q1 and maybe Q2 angst for Tesla shoppers, and if they quickly pass the bill they accelerate Tesla sales hitting the vehicles cap. Ugggh.
I do wonder if it was Tesla’s greater understanding of how this language may effect them that was the catalyst for lowering prices.......and if so, a brilliantly played move IMO. Fight back by pounding through the sales cap ASAP and then putting significant pressure on lawmakers to prioritize fighting Climate Change over fighting a paradigm shift away from Detroit and Wall Street, and then use the power of Social Media and millions of loyal Tesla fans to help raise awareness to the need to extend/eliminate the vehicles cap and help turn up that heat after Tesla blows through that cap in mind blowing fashion.
From the 50,000 foot level this isn’t the time to get lost in cognitive dissonance down in the weeds over what side of the aisle is doing a better job trying to move the needle. This is the time to make sure both sides of the aisle are doing everything they can to move the needle forward as fast as they can to save our Planet.
Regardless of how this plays out, everyone here already knows that Tesla won’t have more than a few vehicles left in inventory anywhere on the planet at the end of 2021, regardless of what kind of screwing they may get from DC in the final language of this bill. And what those people looking to shackle Tesla until others can catch up haven’t yet come to grips with is that Tesla will also be down to its last few Powerwalls, and Powerpacks, and Megapacks, and solar panels, and solar roofs, and everything else in the Tesla Store at the end of 2021 as well. And that this will be the case for every product that Tesla makes at the end of every year for the rest of this decade. And every person buying every one of those Tesla products is equally as important as anyone that decides to buy a Chevy Bolt or a Mustang E instead. Thus the language in that bill needs to put consumers before manufacturers if anyone wants to pretend this is a free market economy.
Bill Gates is also a big fan of Vaclav Smil. Both were off the mark on solutions to Climate Change for a long time.
How Bill Gates (and Vaclav Smil) Can Get it So Wrong on Climate - The Energy Mix
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Circuit breaker not tripped means this is just another Thursday
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Seems the extension is basically an intentional hand-out to GM.
Tesla already has buyers so no real help to them.
GM on the other hand, as the only other company past the current limit- is offering $8500-$10,000 per Bolt in discounts to get anyone to buy them.
With the credit they can cut their own discounts down to 1k to 2.5k, and pocket the entire credit in savings.
Ford (and any foreign car maker) isn't over the current limit anyway- and not likely to be for at least another 3-5 years at current rates, let alone with another 400k on the cap.
40 Billion in short interest.
I would love a Moodys upgrade out of the blue.
when would/could that occur?
Edit: just found this updated feb 12th?
Research - Moody's
New York, February 12, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Tesla, Inc. and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical unit. The review was conducted through a portfolio review discussion held on 8 February 2021 in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), recent developments, and a comparison of the financial and operating profile to similarly rated peers. The review did not involve a rating committee. Since 1 January 2019, Moody's practice has been to issue a press release following each periodic review to announce its completion.
This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future. Credit ratings and outlook/review status cannot be changed in a portfolio review and hence are not impacted by this announcement. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Key rating considerations are summarized below.
Tesla's B2 corporate family rating reflects the progress the company has made in achieving a sustainable position in the auto industry as a specialized producer of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Moody's believes Tesla will maintain leadership in BEVs even as competitive challenges increase, provided it makes meaningful progress in improving operating efficiencies. Tesla needs to make inroads to lower the average price of the Model 3 and Model Y in order to expand its customer base and eventually increasing its size and scale. In addition, Tesla must contend with introducing its models in the European and Chinese markets and to compete against automotive OEMs that are devoting massive amounts of capital to vehicle electrification and are highly capable of mass producing technologically complex products. Moody's expects Tesla to continue to improve its margins in 2021 while generating positive free cash flow. Tesla will be challenged by both the aggressive introduction of BEVs by traditional automotive manufacturers and by the semiconductor chip shortage.
I would love a Moodys upgrade out of the blue.
when would/could that occur?
Edit: just found this updated feb 12th?
Research - Moody's
New York, February 12, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Tesla, Inc. and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical unit. The review was conducted through a portfolio review discussion held on 8 February 2021 in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), recent developments, and a comparison of the financial and operating profile to similarly rated peers. The review did not involve a rating committee. Since 1 January 2019, Moody's practice has been to issue a press release following each periodic review to announce its completion.
This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future. Credit ratings and outlook/review status cannot be changed in a portfolio review and hence are not impacted by this announcement. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Key rating considerations are summarized below.
Tesla's B2 corporate family rating reflects the progress the company has made in achieving a sustainable position in the auto industry as a specialized producer of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Moody's believes Tesla will maintain leadership in BEVs even as competitive challenges increase, provided it makes meaningful progress in improving operating efficiencies. Tesla needs to make inroads to lower the average price of the Model 3 and Model Y in order to expand its customer base and eventually increasing its size and scale. In addition, Tesla must contend with introducing its models in the European and Chinese markets and to compete against automotive OEMs that are devoting massive amounts of capital to vehicle electrification and are highly capable of mass producing technologically complex products. Moody's expects Tesla to continue to improve its margins in 2021 while generating positive free cash flow. Tesla will be challenged by both the aggressive introduction of BEVs by traditional automotive manufacturers and by the semiconductor chip shortage.
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Ron Baron does not appear in my recording of CNBC Squawk Box this morning. The Feb 15 announcement of that interview scheduled for Feb 18 has been removed from the @baronfunds Twitter page: https://twitter.com/baronfunds
Let's hope Ron Baron is okay, and his planned interview with CNBC gets rescheduled.
I listened to Smil's book on the history of energy and civilization while I was finishing up lab work for my dissertation. It had the intended effect of making 8 hour stints of pipetting seem riveting by comparison.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is a very important point you're making, one which not many people appreciate. So let's dive into the reasons why Tesla adding a LFP bty supply from CATL for std rge 'Made-in-Fremont' 3/Ys would be so beneficial:
- Tesla is BATTERY LIMITED: "More batteries, Moar CARS". Period.
- the Iron-based (LFP) chemistry is significantly better than Nickel for certain use cases:
- their lower cost enables price cuts and higher sales w/o reducing margins
- Iron chemistries have several advantages for std rge, including longer rge than the SR+ in a car that weighs no more than the LR version
- iron batteries can be charged to 100% daily w/o affecting their lifespan, making the LFP cars easier to live with for commuters, as well as having BETTER rge than a Nickel-based SR+ when used as directed (charging to <90% routinely)
- these are the MILLION MILE batteries that Tesla wants for robotaxi + Model 2
- Using LFP batteries where appropriate frees up more nickel cells for use cases where their extended range capabilities is more important, like the LR AWD 3/Y and the Semi
- Finally, opening up the logistics chain between CATL in China and Tesla in Fremont allows Tesla to begin adding LFP-chemistry to existing TE products like Megapack and Powerwall
- the LFP cost reductions coupled with SUBSTANTIALLY increased battery availabilty (and life expectancy) will lead to a dramatic increase in delivered units of Megapack and Powerwall, both of which have been 'cell-starved' while sharing a nickel cell supply from Giga NV.
- TE will SOAR. That is what we need to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, and the next step is LFP
- I expect that Giga TX will begin producing 4680 LFP cells in due time, and they will be used to actually FIX the problems inherent in the deliberately-isolated ERCOT grid
- Elon likes to start by electrifying Islands: Australia is an Island. So in ERCOT.
Cheers!
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ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
While the timing of the tax credit might be a problem for the end of Q1 push it's important to remember that for Tesla it won't be just 400,000 cars. Looking at the estimated delivery numbers for the rest of 2021 it's not impossible that even while having a great 2021 Tesla may be able to time it so that they deliver number 400,000 right at the start of Q1 2022. If so they will probably be able to deliver another 300,000 cars or so in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 that also gets the full rebate.
This in turn could mean that in Q4 of this year they could be close enough that there will be a situation where they need to decide to hold onto the last couple of tens of thousands deliveries they could potentially do before the New Year until Q1 2022 in order to not miss out on a full extra quarter.
After those potential 700,000 cars, if I read the text correctly, there is now only one quarter that gets the 50% rebate for probably another 200,000 cars. So overall this will help for about 900,000 cars. Likely good for at least Q3 2022.
This in turn could mean that in Q4 of this year they could be close enough that there will be a situation where they need to decide to hold onto the last couple of tens of thousands deliveries they could potentially do before the New Year until Q1 2022 in order to not miss out on a full extra quarter.
After those potential 700,000 cars, if I read the text correctly, there is now only one quarter that gets the 50% rebate for probably another 200,000 cars. So overall this will help for about 900,000 cars. Likely good for at least Q3 2022.
He straight up lies. He says he does not talk about his investments yet in 2020 he gleefully on video talks about specific companies he invested in profitability such as impossible company.
Notice any difference between today’s and yesterday’s pattern?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Pretty sure CATL are the only ones making LFP. Correct me if I am wrong.
Because of that, I would suspect any cost savings for importing those from China to the USA would be completely eaten up by the tariffs in place (I haven't seen those lifted by the new administration).
More likely than not, Tesla will simply eat up all the LFP they can get for their China production lines.
Just a counter point, happy to be proven wrong.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Hey, we got around that corner sooner. Maybe TSLA is employing thrusters on the SP!
He was a little late, he had to go "take care" of Bill Gates first.
I just rotary dialed him.
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