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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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LOL.

Reasons why

VW ID.4 > Tesla Model 3/Y -
More comfortable - Okay to each their own
Unobtrusive infotainment - because it has a smaller screen?
Great looking interior - subjective but sure
Enough range for almost every need -lower range than a Tesla so it's a positive

Hey Edmunds I'll give you some freebies you can use.

1. Forces you to be adventurous while you are finding a charging station
2. More comfortable acceleration
3. Less likely to cause you to cheat on your wife
 
Also can someone point to me where Tesla said FSD is being fabbed at Austin? They just said Samsung, and considering the PCB is made in China why wouldn't FSD chip be fabbed in the Samsung plant in China?


So it's a bit weirder than that... the actual FSD chip is absolutely made in Texas-


https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip

It is manufactured on Samsung's 14-nanometer process at their Austin, Texas fab

But then the chips go to China (Shanghai specifically) to be assembled, by Quanta, into the full FSD computers with all the other parts.

Then shipped BACK to the US to CA to go into cars.


We know this because Tesla filed for an exemption to the imported-from-china tariffs they'd otherwise have to pay when they bring the completed units back into the country, and mentioned this exact thing- citing that most of the "value" of the part is the Texas-made chip inside the Chinese-assembled unit.


Source:
Trump’s tariffs could knock Tesla’s Autopilot off course – TechCrunch
 
LOL.

Reasons why

VW ID.4 > Tesla Model 3/Y -
More comfortable - Okay to each their own
Unobtrusive infotainment - because it has a smaller screen?
Great looking interior - subjective but sure
Enough range for almost every need -lower range than a Tesla so it's a positive

Hey Edmunds I'll give you some freebies you can use.

1. Forces you to be adventurous while you are finding a charging station
2. More comfortable acceleration
3. Less likely to cause you to cheat on your wife
I wonder, really, how much a review like that costs?
 
A 2.5 month shut down does not make any sense considering what actually happened. I don’t buy it.

Though I haven't worked in a fab, I did work for a company that runs several fabs. The fabs run 24 hours a day - I assume that is true of any fab that makes chips. My understanding (but I could be wrong) is that these run 24 hours a day for two reasons. The obvious one is that the equipment in the factory is so bloody expensive that letting it sit idle for 8 or 16 hours a day may well be the difference between profitability and bankruptcy. At minimum the equipment is amazingly expensive.

The other reason and more germane here - I think that there are any number of process steps that are effectively continuous flow processes. Continuous flow production isn't happy about stopping.

Clean rooms are also hard to maintain in that state. What I remember reading years back is that the air in the clean room is fully exchanged every minute or two. "dust" in the air gets sucked out of the room fast. My guess is that losing the air flow to the room by itself will cause a delay in starting back up.


Tesla aims for vertical integration. That should include the production of its own computer chips. :cool:

Dear lord I surely hope not! :eek:

The sorts of complex chips that we're talking about here have either 3 or 4 manufacturers remaining in the world. That is the fruit of decades of consolidation as each new technology node is so much more expensive than the last, that fewer and fewer companies had the necessary volume to make their manufacturing facility economic. So expensive that the volume needed to keep the factory running full time is only available at those few companies in the world. And I fully expect that number to shrink in the next few years as the newer nodes keep getting more expensive (the economics make it inevitable).

Those companies are Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). The 4th that I just don't know enough about is Global Foundries (AMD's former manufacturing facilities). Samsung and TSMC have the volume to be competitive and profitable due to their foundry work - they build other people's chip designs (such as Tesla's chip design). Samsung makes their own designs as well as other companies. TSMC is pure foundry.

Intel is the only remaining vertically integrated design and semiconductor manufacturing shop in the world (which is what Tesla would become as their own chip manufacturer). At the processor level Intel is doing hundreds of millions of units per year - Tesla is going to need a whole lot more demand / volume (I think 2 orders of magnitude, and possible a 3rd) to make their own chip manufacturing economic. Which also assumes that the chips Tesla needs are equally valuable as Intel's chips - some of Tesla's will be worth more, but many won't. That'll further drive the need for more volume. But hey if you've got the volume then there is a lot of value in vertical integration (co-optimize the design and manufacturing technology).


What Tesla can do (and any other design shop in the world) is pony up more money to their manufacturing partner - make sure they have a priority on wafer starts just by spending more for them.


My disclaimer: I used to work for Intel. These are my opinions, beliefs and understandings; don't put any of these on Intel.
 
People sometimes think they see things that other's don't see, when in fact other's do see them, but are responding differently.

I think the price of Tesla is depressed not because people don't see Berlin or Austin or FSD, but because they put a lower probability of these items making a difference.

I see 92% probability of all three with relevant timing.

They see 32% probability of all three with relevant timing.

They are not blind or dumb, they are just skeptical because they have spent their lives in dysfunctional systems.
 
I'm not sure I'm buying the argument that $1,400 checks are going to have a material impact on TSLA SP. How many of these checks are estimated to be sent out? Most anyone is buying with these is 1-2 shares. Will that really make a difference?
There's about 960M shares of TSLA, and now ~680M of them are in the hands of people unlikely to sell, probably more like 720M by now. That's still a lot of shares "available", but not a ton. Then we have to take into account short interest, and the HODLing nature of the remaining retail shareholders.

As we've seen this year, newish retail investors just buy shares to get in. They don't consider price anywhere near as much as an average TMCer might. That can move the SP quite a bit when no one is really interested in selling.

We see 24M shares traded on a day like to day and feel like that's a lot. Almost all of those were masturbatory back and forth trades by algos and hedge funds trying to maneuver or shove the price up/down. Not a lot of shares truly change hands on days like today. Then Kyle from Omaha and his 1M buddies show up looking for 1-10 shares all in the same week.

I'm of the opinion 1-3M shares of TSLA truly being acquired, without major regard for price, can move SP far more than we might believe. Certainly it snaps back a lot of downward pressure from various entities shorting.
 
Though I haven't worked in a fab, I did work for a company that runs several fabs. The fabs run 24 hours a day - I assume that is true of any fab that makes chips. My understanding (but I could be wrong) is that these run 24 hours a day for two reasons. The obvious one is that the equipment in the factory is so bloody expensive that letting it sit idle for 8 or 16 hours a day may well be the difference between profitability and bankruptcy. At minimum the equipment is amazingly expensive.

The other reason and more germane here - I think that there are any number of process steps that are effectively continuous flow processes. Continuous flow production isn't happy about stopping.

Clean rooms are also hard to maintain in that state. What I remember reading years back is that the air in the clean room is fully exchanged every minute or two. "dust" in the air gets sucked out of the room fast. My guess is that losing the air flow to the room by itself will cause a delay in starting back up.




Dear lord I surely hope not! :eek:

The sorts of complex chips that we're talking about here have either 3 or 4 manufacturers remaining in the world. That is the fruit of decades of consolidation as each new technology node is so much more expensive than the last, that fewer and fewer companies had the necessary volume to make their manufacturing facility economic. So expensive that the volume needed to keep the factory running full time is only available at those few companies in the world. And I fully expect that number to shrink in the next few years as the newer nodes keep getting more expensive (the economics make it inevitable).

Those companies are Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). The 4th that I just don't know enough about is Global Foundries (AMD's former manufacturing facilities). Samsung and TSMC have the volume to be competitive and profitable due to their foundry work - they build other people's chip designs (such as Tesla's chip design). Samsung makes their own designs as well as other companies. TSMC is pure foundry.

Intel is the only remaining vertically integrated design and semiconductor manufacturing shop in the world (which is what Tesla would become as their own chip manufacturer). At the processor level Intel is doing hundreds of millions of units per year - Tesla is going to need a whole lot more demand / volume (I think 2 orders of magnitude, and possible a 3rd) to make their own chip manufacturing economic. Which also assumes that the chips Tesla needs are equally valuable as Intel's chips - some of Tesla's will be worth more, but many won't. That'll further drive the need for more volume. But hey if you've got the volume then there is a lot of value in vertical integration (co-optimize the design and manufacturing technology).


What Tesla can do (and any other design shop in the world) is pony up more money to their manufacturing partner - make sure they have a priority on wafer starts just by spending more for them.


My disclaimer: I used to work for Intel. These are my opinions, beliefs and understandings; don't put any of these on Intel.

All good points and obviously would result in shut downs, sometimes several weeks, but not 2.5 months. Anyway I won’t comment further on this.
 
So it's a bit weirder than that... the actual FSD chip is absolutely made in Texas-


https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip



But then the chips go to China (Shanghai specifically) to be assembled, by Quanta, into the full FSD computers with all the other parts.

Then shipped BACK to the US to CA to go into cars.


We know this because Tesla filed for an exemption to the imported-from-china tariffs they'd otherwise have to pay when they bring the completed units back into the country, and mentioned this exact thing- citing that most of the "value" of the part is the Texas-made chip inside the Chinese-assembled unit.


Source:
Trump’s tariffs could knock Tesla’s Autopilot off course – TechCrunch

I think AP board has been shifted to Taiwan for PCB assembly due to the tariff.
 
Yeah... I didn't say it was rational or that I thought that. Just that the market is setting up to react like that and really hit the stock with the FUD. Less production/deliveries than Q4! 170k paces under 700k for the year! Imagine when the chip shortage hits Tesla, under 600k for the year! No demand!

Just watch if Tesla is under 170k, they are going to get massacred. Doesn't matter to my longer-term perspective, but a short term hammering of the stock would surely happen.
Why don’t you go bet your house and a kidney on that? Don’t forget to get back to us on that bet, ‘kay?
 
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Yeah... I didn't say it was rational or that I thought that. Just that the market is setting up to react like that and really hit the stock with the FUD. Less production/deliveries than Q4! 170k paces under 700k for the year! Imagine when the chip shortage hits Tesla, under 600k for the year! No demand!

Just watch if Tesla is under 170k, they are going to get massacred. Doesn't matter to my longer-term perspective, but a short term hammering of the stock would surely happen.

I realize your opinion is unpopular here but I’m not sure I disagree. I have all the TSLA shares I could ever need. I’m not greedy and my future is more than secured. My cost basis is nearly zero due to selling and buying the COVID dip. I’ve been tempted to buy more but, even though it’s a deal now long term, I’m kinda like eh at these levels. To the point, I do think after Q1 there’s the potential for a bigger dip due to outrageous stupidity if a couple other items line up a perfect storm. If so, I’ll use all my firepower there. After Q1 we’ll get FSD subscriptions, FSD rollout later in the year, Berlin, Austin, “Model 2”, then in 2022, when 4680s are rolling out hard, we’ll see the S curve get really interesting. TSLA to Pluto!

In summary, when the stock is so hurt than even I am questioning my TSLA ownership, that’s when I’ll buy. I hope it doesn’t happen but if it does...game on.
 
But hey if you've got the volume then there is a lot of value in vertical integration (co-optimize the design and manufacturing technology).

IMO something that might change things eventually would be if changes like the wiring harness needed a lot more chips per car.
Even if that was true, these would be low end chips, so perhaps they would be easy to source.

Another possible driver is Tesla Energy, if solar and battery home installations needed a lot of chips or Tesla had some sort of next generation home lighting, HVAC, and power system that needed a lot of chips. Again even if this was true, these would be lower end chips.

We can look back to Autonomy Day and Battery Day and see that important things where suppliers can't deliver the solution Tesla wants, or the volume Tesla wants, get taken in house. So it isn't just price, more a matter of quality and availability.
 
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What items in this perfect storm would cause a dip greater than last year's covid dip?

EDIT: not being sarcastic or anything, genuinely curious.

Terrible S/X rollout.
Actual chip issues.
Macro situation continues to gets worse.
Still no 2021 guidance given.
....and maybe Bitcoin tanks.

All these are short term issues of course which are zero issues to most of us but could give an opportunity. I’m happy if it happens I’m happy if it doesn’t.

EDIT: Absolutely not expecting it to get to Covid dip levels! If it does I’m selling my homes!
 
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Reactions: CarlS and tschmidty
Terrible S/X rollout.
Actual chip issues.
Macro situation continues to gets worse.
Still no 2021 guidance given.
....and maybe Bitcoin tanks.

All these are short term issues of course which are zero issues to most of us but could give an opportunity. I’m happy if it happens I’m happy if it doesn’t.

EDIT: Absolutely not expecting it to get to Covid dip levels! If it does I’m selling my homes!

No S/X deliveries in Q1 is definitely priced in at this point. It's obvious
Macro situation get worse? I'm assuming you're talking inflation cause the actual economy is going to do gangbusters this year and next
They won't give 2021 guidance and it's very clear of that. They made that clear on Q1 earnings
They have a 50% cushion with Bitcoin before they'll even see 1 penny of a loss on it.

Chip situation affecting Tesla? Sure that's a genuine concern of the ones listed.
 
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We're gonna feel like idiots for not levering up before these $1400 checks arrive. Younger millennials and whatever group was after them aren't buying houses, aren't getting married, aren't having kids. They make low enough salaries to get this check and it's going right into TSLA.
I have been levering all right.... just not “up” per se.
 
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Reactions: Dane Dad