Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I think deliveries are going to come in much closer to Q4'20 than you're projecting.

Actually, I don’t. No evidence. Just a gut feeling numbers will disappoint. I think there’s more parts/material shortages going on.

A few weeks back there were signs in the soda aisle of my grocery store that there was a shortage of aluminum so soda was on back order. I’ve had trouble getting other products of a wide variety from many places for the last 3 months because of Covid related issues and production delays. I’ve had one item on back order since the middle of November and it just got extended the third time to now end of May. This is a rubber product.

 

[ZsoZso]

Looking at all the green ticker's after several days of red everywhere, I suddenly see something that just hit ATH: that is FOMO !

 

[Big Time]

 

[EVMeister]

You are more optimistic than I am that Tesla will be first to market with real FSD (robotaxi-capable or sleep-in-the-back).

But then the question is, who do you think is better positioned to do that? Who else has the right approach or the right amount of data to achieve this? Serious question, because I don't think anybody is better positioned than Tesla is. I don't think there's anything wrong with looking at Tesla's potential outside of autonomy and robotaxis, they have plenty going for them. But I also feel Tesla is better positioned for robotaxis than anybody else is.

 

[MP3Mike]

In the vehicle. There will be software update in a few weeks. That update will add the button to 'Software' section (according to Elon). Then if you click it (and then sign in blood to confirm to be a good user, etc..) it will probably do another software update to download the FSDbeta.

Actually he said it would be in the "Service" section:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1368329387733512193

And it should be available to anyone that has paid for FSD and has HW3 installed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1369235813079351297

https://twitter.com/x/status/1369237279378714629

 

[woodisgood]

Quite the reversal. Even ARK ETFs are up 7-8%.

 

[tstolze]

Actually, I don’t. No evidence. Just a gut feeling numbers will disappoint. I think there’s more parts/material shortages going on.

A few weeks back there were signs in the soda aisle of my grocery store that there was a shortage of aluminum so soda was on back order. I’ve had trouble getting other products of a wide variety from many places for the last 3 months because of Covid related issues and production delays. I’ve had one item on back order since the middle of November and it just got extended the third time to now end of May. This is a rubber product.

I don't believe it's an aluminum shortage, but a can shortage. With people still staying at home more beverages are being consumed out of cans/bottles instead of from bulk like a soda fountain or a keg.

 

[Krugerrand]

many of the objectors were not objecting on the basis that they knew what bitcoin would do from a speculation standpoint, but rather that investing in bitcoin is specifically and almost uniquely in opposition to Tesla's explicit mission of accelerating sustainability and combating climate change. whether or not Tesla makes money from bitcoin does not have bearing on that point.

And thus is ruined the Tesla brand and devalued the company = bad for investors.

 

[Johan]

Wow nice price action so far today. A thought that always strikes me at times like this, which is slightly irritating: A drop from $900 to $600 is a 33% drop. To go from $600 back up to $900 is a 50% rise.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think deliveries are going to come in much closer to Q4'20 than you're projecting.

Remember all those vehicles sitting in a parking lot in China Dec 31, 2020?

True, Q1 is not historically a good month with maybe some hits this quarter, but the Q1 Blues could be viewed as a problem to be solved... already. This Q1 I bet we do just fine on deliveries (China), but FSD revenue could cushion things.

Go China! Go Fremont! Go Sparks!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wow nice price action so far today. A thought that always strikes me at times like this, which is slightly irritating: A drop from $900 to $600 is a 33% drop. To go from $600 back up to $900 is a 50% rise.

Hey, not fair!

 

[Buckminster]

One big advantage of the new forum format is that I don’t click disagree half of the time by mistake with my big thumbs on my iPhone. Really appreciate the new big Like button.

Buckle up, because the booster is full for the rocket ride.

I'm glad key hole surgery hasn't reached the dental world yet...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh, this HODL thing pays off. Huge temptation to sell a few earlier today. I did not.

 

[Brian121]

My gut feeling is also the first quarter will disappoint. But I will provide another perspective.

Tesla ran out of S and X inventory like in mid January in preparation for the refresh and at that time the estimate was that refresh S and X will start delivery in February.

Of course for anything this new and innovative it is reasonable to expect delay, but why they still estimate the delivery for Feb even as late as Elon's interview with Rogan in early February?

To me it points to an unexpected and major issue that they have to solve.

And if they would have known the issue, would they stop the line in January? I know the line needs retooling for the refresh. My worry is that the line retooling time won't need this long. But the idling is caused by them needing to work out the S and X design issue that they did not know or expect in January.

If the above is true, would they delay the refresh announcement and keep the old line running? Now the line is idle and pretty much they shot themselves in the foots.

 

[elasalle]

So Basically the NAS bounced off it's 100MA, last time it did the same was on 11/2/20.

 

[EVWatcher]

Quite the reversal. Even ARK ETFs are up 7-8%.

Even? Crashes like this when managed well are a great opportunity. Everyone was accusing cathy of being dumb but this month will probably end up being the basis for way outperforming the market for the next month or so for ARK.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice day today so far....hopefully the bottom was realized at the $550 range and we climb back up to where we were prior. FSD beta, Q1, giga factory progress, more global penetration...makes you wonder how we dropped 33% with no real underlying factors, except a few 0.0001% rises in the yield rates and of course the never ending FUD.

 

[Pras]

Now time for cnbs to go back to start shitting on “value” stocks that have rallied 100% over the last year.

 

[Johan]

Now time for cnbs to go back to start shitting on “value” stocks that have rallied 100% over the last year.

Soon everyone will have to rotate between value stocks, oil, tech, green energy, bitcoin and then back to value stock all within one week. The worlds seems to spin faster and faster...

 

[juanmedina]

Does anyone know how to sell covered calls against DITM LEAPs on Power E-trade? @dl003 @bxr140