Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Sorry, but please don't rally just yet. Dry powder inbound but not for a couple of days!

Rally sideways please.

Yay! You did it. Well, you and Murphy anyway.
Thanks for taking one for the team!

 

[mickificki]

My gut feeling is also the first quarter will disappoint. But I will provide another perspective.

Tesla ran out of S and X inventory like in mid January in preparation for the refresh and at that time the estimate was that refresh S and X will start delivery in February.

Of course for anything this new and innovative it is reasonable to expect delay, but why they still estimate the delivery for Feb even as late as Elon's interview with Rogan in early February?

To me it points to an unexpected and major issue that they have to solve.

And if they would have known the issue, would they stop the line in January? I know the line needs retooling for the refresh. My worry is that the line retooling time won't need this long. But the idling is caused by them needing to work out the S and X design issue that they did not know or expect in January.

If the above is true, would they delay the refresh announcement and keep the old line running? Now the line is idle and pretty much they shot themselves in the foots.

I could be completely wrong and off base, but imo part of the delay(along with the manufacturing) of the s/x is tesla ironing out the kinks of fsd version 9. Elon mentioned the S/X would be stalkless and that the car will figure out which direction you want to go, when you want to make a turn, etc. In order for that to happen v9 needs to be legit accurate in its decision making...

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesmanian - yesterday: Tesla China

Excerpt:

Beijing Time March 9, 2021, CPCA (China Auto Industry Body) reported Tesla China has sold 18,318 units of its pure electric vehicles in February 2021, which were made at Gigafactory Shanghai. This increase represents an 18.3% MoM growth over January sales, which is especially impressive considering February has just 28 days, and the period encompasses the Chinese New Year Holidays.

Meanwhile, in contrast, EV makers NIO, Li, and Xpeng saw their EV sales fall significantly MoM in February--with respective declines of 22.7%, 57%, and 63%:

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't believe it's an aluminum shortage, but a can shortage. With people still staying at home more beverages are being consumed out of cans/bottles instead of from bulk like a soda fountain or a keg.

Possible. I just convey what the sign said, but I’ve been hearing from other sources about steel/metal/material shortages in other industries.

It’s a fact that a lot of businesses/factories/mfging companies have been slowed down and/or completely shutdown because of Covid all over the world for close to a year’s time. Some of them have been put permanently out of business.

It’s a fact that many products ran out of stock entirely and even now haven’t caught up.

I’m preparing for my mountain build, the costs and supplies available of a lot of products is currently compromised. Wood product prices are through the roof and continue to rise. Steel prices are up as well but the pricing has temporarily leveled off.

So, your theory is possible but I’m not buying it as the main issue.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Holding for years so whatever, but it's nice to see my portfolio up 20% in a single day. Also, we get the Nasdaq short interest report through 2/26 today at 4PM ET. Will be interesting to see what that shows.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Tesmanian - yesterday: Tesla China

Excerpt:

Beijing Time March 9, 2021, CPCA (China Auto Industry Body) reported Tesla China has sold 18,318 units of its pure electric vehicles in February 2021, which were made at Gigafactory Shanghai. This increase represents an 18.3% MoM growth over January sales, which is especially impressive considering February has just 28 days, and the period encompasses the Chinese New Year Holidays.

Meanwhile, in contrast, EV makers NIO, Li, and Xpeng saw their EV sales fall significantly MoM in February--with respective declines of 22.7%, 57%, and 63%:

Yet Nio is up 16% while TSLA is up “only” 13%. Can you imagine what would have happened to TSLA if sales declined that much in China?

 

[Brian121]

Tesmanian - yesterday: Tesla China

Excerpt:

Beijing Time March 9, 2021, CPCA (China Auto Industry Body) reported Tesla China has sold 18,318 units of its pure electric vehicles in February 2021, which were made at Gigafactory Shanghai. This increase represents an 18.3% MoM growth over January sales, which is especially impressive considering February has just 28 days, and the period encompasses the Chinese New Year Holidays.

Meanwhile, in contrast, EV makers NIO, Li, and Xpeng saw their EV sales fall significantly MoM in February--with respective declines of 22.7%, 57%, and 63%:

Hi Curt,

CPCA in the quote stands for China Passenger Car Association.

 

[juanmedina]

Covered calls aren't covered by "specific" things- like if you've got 500 shares and 5 LEAPS you can sell anywhere from 0 to 10 calls and they're all "covered" but you don't need to say which one is cover by which thing.

So you just sell a call like you would any other time, it's not specifically backed by those LEAPs (unless that's all you have in there)-- you don't need to worry about which thing covers which call unless/until you actually get assigned and need to deliver the shares.

Got it,. I thought the LEAP would cover the call. For instance the shares cover the calls and they are all under the same grouping. I thought I could do the same against the LEAPs somehow.

 

[Pras]

The move up is pretty strong. What does it mean? New buyers, short covering, technical/algo move? All of the above?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Why, hello there, SP. A pleasant day amongst the painful ones recently.

Still don't think my 850 call for 12Mar is going to turn profitable.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yet Nio is up 16% while TSLA is up “only” 13%. Can you imagine what would have happened to TSLA if sales declined that much in China?

I know . All of the other China EV stocks should be down on this news considering their sales contracted while Tesla's expanded. They lost market share lol

 

[thx1139]

Tesmanian - yesterday: Tesla China

Excerpt:

Beijing Time March 9, 2021, CPCA (China Auto Industry Body) reported Tesla China has sold 18,318 units of its pure electric vehicles in February 2021, which were made at Gigafactory Shanghai. This increase represents an 18.3% MoM growth over January sales, which is especially impressive considering February has just 28 days, and the period encompasses the Chinese New Year Holidays.

Meanwhile, in contrast, EV makers NIO, Li, and Xpeng saw their EV sales fall significantly MoM in February--with respective declines of 22.7%, 57%, and 63%:

Would this be units sold just in China or does it include units exported? Do we have 2020 Shanghai Q1 numbers anywhere handy?

EDIT: Found China 2020 Q1 numbers. Looks like in 2020 Q1 China had 16,623 units sold in China.

 

[Cobbler]

History repeats itself....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Would this be units sold just in China or does it include units exported? Do we have 2020 Shanghai Q1 numbers anywhere handy?

Does not include the 5,000 vehicles exported in Feb. Giga China's total production was around 23k

 

[Brian121]

Tesmanian - yesterday: Tesla China

Excerpt:

Beijing Time March 9, 2021, CPCA (China Auto Industry Body) reported Tesla China has sold 18,318 units of its pure electric vehicles in February 2021, which were made at Gigafactory Shanghai. This increase represents an 18.3% MoM growth over January sales, which is especially impressive considering February has just 28 days, and the period encompasses the Chinese New Year Holidays.

Meanwhile, in contrast, EV makers NIO, Li, and Xpeng saw their EV sales fall significantly MoM in February--with respective declines of 22.7%, 57%, and 63%:

Hi Curt,

CPCA in the quote stands for China Passenger Car Association.

Would this be units sold just in China or does it include units exported? Do we have 2020 Shanghai Q1 numbers anywhere handy?

EDIT: Found China 2020 Q1 numbers. Looks like in 2020 Q1 China had 16,623 units sold in China.

Just in China. Total manufactured was 23632. The difference for the most part is export.

 

[wipster]

Well this is a nice to wake up to! Definitely not going back to bed... yet at least.

 

[AimStellar]

Tesla Up Over 14%, Best Performer in the S&P 500 So Far Today -- Data Talk

Tesla Inc (TSLA) is currently at $645.32, up $82.32 or 14.62%

-- On pace for largest percent increase since March 24, 2020, when it rose 16.28%

-- Snaps a five day losing streak

-- Down 4.47% month-to-date

-- Down 8.55% year-to-date

-- Down 26.92% from its all-time closing high of $883.09 on Jan. 26, 2021

-- Up 399.99% from 52 weeks ago (March 10, 2020), when it closed at $129.07

-- Down 26.92% from its 52-week closing high of $883.09 on Jan. 26, 2021

-- Up 793.25% from its 52-week closing low of $72.24 on March 18, 2020

-- Traded as high as $645.98

-- Up 14.74% at today's intraday high

-- Best performer in the S&P 500 today

-- Fourth most active stock in the S&P 500 today

-- Best performer in the Nasdaq 100 today

-- Second most active stock in the Nasdaq 100 today

All data as of 11:33:41 AM

Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet

 

[NicoV]

Don't they have to start amortizing the new S/X production line anyways in Q1 since they're actively make trial cars and what looks to be many actual production cars for sale? I thought amortization starts when the equipment gets put into use, not when the first car gets sold.

I thought they did something similar with the first Model 3’s from Shanghai, I vaguely remember this being discussed here. We’ll soon know though, if the first Model S gets delivered in March we can scrap this idea.

 

[Drezil]

The move up is pretty strong. What does it mean? New buyers, short covering, technical/algo move? All of the above?

My guess would be on the massive 45k volume on the 650 call option.. if most of them are buyers this could lead to severe delta-hedging by market makers. Delta should be gone from ~0.1 yesterday to ~0.5 currently & rising fast with the share price.

This can go on for some time if others jump in as this just amplifies any change in SP. Can also totally reverse again tomorrow.

Other then that: next friday is triple-witching-day & max-pain is around a SP of 660.. So the usual suspects might start capping soon.

 

[Tyler34]

Why is no one complaining about the TSLA multiplier in relation to the macros today?