Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tyler34]

GJ already replied to that dry electrode twitter thread. LOL

EDIT: even he wants to know a source

 

[Norwalk79]

So while this could always been true....it goes in the face of what Elon and the Tesla team said on the earnings Q4 where the dry electrode process had been de-risked and that they were ahead of schedule

Edit: Yeah now that I read through that person's entire tweet thread, I'm calling BS. All of the information that's presented is outdated information and direct contradiction to what the Tesla team said only a month ago and does absolutely nothing to confirm or add weight to their "rumor" they're saying they heard. In fact, this person has apparently been skeptical of Tesla's 4680 Cell's pretty much since Tesla had Battery Day.

I forgot to mention that recently there are tons of misinfo, bad rumors, FUD.....trying to kill Tesla in the take-off stage. Read my post below

 

[elasalle]

Didn't Musk say on Q4 call they had figured out dry electrode issues?

What I recall mentioned was that Maxwell was only Proof Of Concept, and scaling this tech out was gonna be very hard. Some other points I recall ..
GF Berlin MY is not dependent on 4680 for 1st year.
Kato Road was already like top ten battery manufacturer in world (like 10 GWH)

Personally, the surprising thing for me is that we haven't seen 4860's in any products so far.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370088049250611210

So the word on the street is that Tesla is having a difficult time making the dry electrode for the 4680 cells. Keep in mind, dry electrode coating was one of the key breakthroughs Tesla touted on Battery Day that would allow 4680 to achieve the impressive specs presented.

LoL only took a hour for someone to come up with that theory, Tslaq is slipping.

The obvious reason is that Plaid+ is osbourning too many sales of Plaid, which are now ramping up in production. They are adjusting demand for plaid by modifying Plaid+, making it less affordable but most importantly, extending out the delivery date which very likely will change again around Q3 and Q4. After the S refresh reveal, more people jumped into Plaid+ because why not have the best of everything Tesla has to offer by spending only 20k more and not having to wait all that long?

 

[Knightshade]

Thats was what I was thinking. Maybe they know that they only will have so many 4680 cells and they want to launch say the Cybertruck or the Semi as well in Q4. So they say we can use X amount for Plaid+ initial orders and then have to wait a few months before capacity is high enough to resume production.

Semi is launching with 2170 cells.

Next month (well, "early Q2" which is pretty much next month or the first 1.9 weeks of May I guess)

Yes he did. He could be lying of course, or some random guy on Twitter/WS could be talking out his behind. I know whom I put my faith in.

Third possibility- Elon told the truth but a new issue arose after they applied the solution to whatever the problem Elon said they solved was...... What Elon really said on the call was the team has solved all the issues they've run into so far- that doesn't preclude a new issue....

(Likewise it doesn't preclude the team solving said issue, if it even exists, fairly quickly)

 

[reardencode]

This stock is coiling to do something around close today.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm not saying it's easy........I'm going directly off of what Tesla said on the earnings call about the progress of the 4680 Cells and specifically the dry electrode process.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370093054481158144

Someone actually replied to that tweet already with direct quotes from the Q4 earnings call. When the Tesla team is saying "Meanwhile, we've developed enough engineering confidence with our 4680 design and the production process and equipment to kick off manufacturing equipment and facility construction to support our 100 gigawatt hour 2022 goal"........then inclined to believe them over some random person on Twitter saying there's a rumor and then using very outdated quotes to back up their rumor.

That Joe appears to be a smart, good looking guy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What I recall mentioned was that Maxwell was only Proof Of Concept, and scaling this tech out was gonna be very hard. Some other points I recall ..
GF Berlin MY is not dependent on 4680 for 1st year.
Kato Road was already like top ten battery manufacturer in world (like 10 GWH)

Personally, the surprising thing for me is that we haven't seen 4860's in any products so far.

Elon has said multiple times that Berlin Model Y will have 4680 Cells from the very beginning. He's also said there are 4680 Cell's out there in cars right now(obviously not retail cars but in their prototypes)

 

[elasalle]

Germany/EU just needs to ban fully autonomous ride hailing services until VW/MB/BMW can offer them. Even if that is 10 years.

Possible, they did try to stop tax credits for Model 3 for being an extra 3 inches long

 

[RobStark]

It would be helpful to flip back a few years and see how Germany handled the disruption of their energy grids by solar/wind electricity supply crossing a critical threshold and squashing utilities. Covered extensively in the Energy/Environment/Policy forum.

All three major electric utilities instantly went bankrupt as solar crossed about 4% of total supply. Solar ate away peak demand by supplying up to 50% of peak demand and ruined the profit schemes of all other energy producers. The only reason it hasn't happened in the US is corruption. Here we value corporate profits of supposedly "public utilities" far above the needs of consumers, in Germany it is often the opposite.

Not only did the German gov't force each of the utilities into bankruptcy rather than bail them out or change the rules, they also wouldn't let them split off their worst assets into separate entities. They forced entire enterprises to go through bankruptcy for 2-3 years and come out the other end as proper grid services providers and only then did they let them separate into production units and grid management units.

This I think is why we're not likely to see any desperation from the major German car manufacturers. It will be painful to fall so far behind and go through bankruptcy, but the DE gov't(on behalf of the autoworkers) won't let these entities die off. If I had to guess.....most will remain resistant to change, then spend a year or two in bankruptcy, before emerging as varyingly successful EV companies probably worth far less than today.

We in the US rightfully see GM as a walking corpse. They simply have no avenue to success. They will get bailed out by the US gov't, but not in any way that creates a more sustainable business model or forces them to service the demands of the marketplace. God forbid.

The German Utilities aren't the backbone of the Germany economy that pays for the German Welfare State and funds bailouts of weaker EU members. The utility grids don't export all over the world at very good profits. That is the German Automakers that do that.

 

[JustMe]

Trading volume is going down steadily all day. At this rate, it could dry up all together in about an hour

 

[Norwalk79]

Dear Tesla comrades: I forgot several important factors that affect Tesla's recovery and advance:

1) Remember that Tesla has the most enemies who want to kill Tesla for good before it fully develop all of its advantages. This is similar to Russia wants to kill its opposition leader for good. Here is a limited list of its enemies:
This time is the beginning of the end of 100 yr old oil industries/nations/ICE cars manufacturers and the start of the new fields of Clean and renewable Energy/Storage, Electric Vehicles, FSD subscription and Robotaxis/delivery.

Tesla is the most advanced Leader in all of the above fields and will become the next Amazon, Apple and Google, has the most enemy, therefore, Tesla shorts, VW and oil companies/industry/nations have started to give one final push to kill before Tesla crush competition with its lowest price highest value $25K model 2 by the end this year 2021 together with Berlin Giga already has 8 Giga Press for model 3 and Y + ready to make new 4680 battery with $1B incentive, 2,500 Semi trucks in Texas, FSD and insurance started by 2nd Quarter of this year. The Solar Energy Storage of Tesla Power Walls and MegaWatts will advance along the way since Texas lost power 4 days in freezing temp, rolling shutdown in California and NorthEastern states losing power during heavy snow periods.

2) All other funds are jealous of the rocket Tesla flying too high making their investment look bad compared to Cathie Wood's funds

3) All Tesla shorts hate Elon & Tesla because they lost $40B in 2020 alone in shorting Tesla. They will never quit trying until they die. Trust me on this.

So, please tell everybody to invest in Tesla, the most glorious story in 2021 besides the GameStop fairy tale

That's all I can think of for now.
Good luck to all. Cheers

I forgot the 4th name: 4) Microsoft Bill Gates did not deny (silent when asked) that he shorted Tesla. So horrible.

 

[RobStark]

Possible, they did try to stop tax credits for Model 3 for being an extra 3 inches long

That was a Volkswagen proposal. The EU stopped the Swedes from doing something similar like proposing large taxes on ICEv that had larger engines than Volvos.

Once the French and German governments have fear of their auto industries collapsing they can together pass any legislation they want at the EU level.

 

[thx1139]

They may be having issues with 4680 dude....

Edit: Also speaking as someone who works in manufacturing, there is such a thing as developmental production. Just saying.

Yes they could be having an issue with the battery production. Not the car. That wouldnt stop a call to discuss the refresh.

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370088049250611210

So the word on the street is that Tesla is having a difficult time making the dry electrode for the 4680 cells. Keep in mind, dry electrode coating was one of the key breakthroughs Tesla touted on Battery Day that would allow 4680 to achieve the impressive specs presented.

What street? TSLAQ street?

 

[buttershrimp]

Chamath Palihapitia has said that some hedge funds were leveraged over 10X and one may have actually achieved over a trillion dollars of trading power. Wrap your mind around that. It only takes one big player like that to cap, but it's also possible for hedge funds to find mutual benefit to certain actions.

That is astounding. And makes a lot of sense... I'm always skeptical of ideas that require coordination of large groups, but a giant hedge fund that can build a team around manipulating one stock? Oh yeah, you know that's happening.

 

[Singuy]

Trading volume is going down steadily all day. At this rate, it could dry up all together in about an hour

$662.50 is max pain, but I think anything under 700 is fine due to that call wall. It's now in the hands of MM without volume. Good luck yall

 

[Norwalk79]

Trading volume is going down steadily all day. At this rate, it could dry up all together in about an hour

Intuitions/funds think Tesla got so many competition and no longer can provide the great return in the past, until Tesla proves that it is all above all the competition

 

[buttershrimp]

I forgot to mention that recently there are tons of misinfo, bad rumors, FUD.....trying to kill Tesla in the take-off stage. Read my post below

I'm reluctant to describe my precious TSLA with the likes of Gamestop, but do I squeal with glee seeing those big shorting hedge funds whine? Oh yeah.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Yes they could be having an issue with the battery production. Not the car. That wouldnt stop a call to discuss the refresh.

And when people inevitably ask questions about the Plaid+ on the call, do you want Elon to have to answer about battery production issues right now and tank the stock again? I’d rather they skip the call, solve the issues and tell us everything is fine on the Q1 call.