Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

This video is excellent in showing the need for much more improvement. I still have doubt anybody can do the FSD level 5 defined as it can do ALL cases like a human can, like an accident on freeway or street or police pursuit with road closure. Have to see to believe.

I'm on the other side of the fence: L5 FSD is inevitable and will come earlier than the masses expect it to arrive. (Most say: at least five years from now, or more, or never).

First off, your doubts are underestimating what deep learning can do given enough high quality data. The improvement will grow exponentially once DOJO arrives (unsupervised labeling -> much faster learning cycles).

Second, the problems you discribe: an accident, a police pursuit, ... are all just ballistic problems. The car will see the same a human sees and in most cases much quicker than a human can. If a human is surprised by something and crashes (for example a tree falling on the road just as he is driving there), the FSD-car might also crash, but these are edge cases first and foremost AND even the human couldn't prevent the crash. Therefore: FSD was not more unsafe than human driving. (Also, the FSD-car will brake sooner and harder than the panicky human, trying not to skid (and to prevent sideways impact) resulting in lower impact damage and lower injuries.)

Third, and this point feels like beating a dead horse, FSD does not and will not result in 0 accidents on the road in the future. The simultaneous surround-video at all times, without a millisecond of inattentiveness, combined with not breaking the speed limit, will already erase the vast majority of accidents out there. Even if in some rare edge cases the FSD-car reacts in a more stupid manner than the human and causes a crash, statistically this will be just a blip on the radar overall.

The metric therefore should be along the lines of: [total amount of damages in crashes] per mile driven. This is however impossible to calculate so we'll just have to work with [amount of crashes with fatalities/injuries/no injuries]/mile driven. FSD will crush this too. (Just erase the death toll of drunk driving alone....)

Current FSD beta might already beat humans on that metric. But this fact will become more and more blatantly obvious in the coming months/years. Therefore I can't wait till FSD beta becomes a public release and Tesla Insurance can report accident data that will shock Insurance companies. From that point on, it's only a matter of time before the regulators follow.

So yes, I'm very bullish on FSD. I'm an attorney dealing mainly in bodily injury (be it by car accidents, work related injuries or other) and 99% of automotive injuries are due to someone not being aware enough of their surroundings (whatever the reason). In 50 years time our descendants won't be able to fathom our time allowed 'human driving'. "What? That sounds so dangerous, grandpa!" - "You think that's bad, [insert errors of humanity from the 20th century]"

The world will become safer, more fun and more productive with FSD. And us TSLA shareholders will make a nice profit on the dawn of FSD as well. (A unique moment in history, I might add, truly groudbreaking. I can't hide my excitement about all this.)

Cheers to Tesla, DOJO, FSD and the disruption they will bring.

 

[Norwalk79]

I'm on the other side of the fence: L5 FSD is inevitable and will come earlier than the masses expect it to arrive. (Most say: at least five years from now, or more, or never).

First off, your doubts are underestimating what deep learning can do given enough high quality data. The improvement will grow exponentially once DOJO arrives (unsupervised labeling -> much faster learning cycles).

Second, the problems you discribe: an accident, a police pursuit, ... are all just ballistic problems. The car will see the same a human sees and in most cases much quicker than a human can. If a human is surprised by something and crashes (for example a tree falling on the road just as he is driving there), the FSD-car might also crash, but these are edge cases first and foremost AND even the human couldn't prevent the crash. Therefore: FSD was not more unsafe than human driving. (Also, the FSD-car will brake sooner and harder than the panicky human, trying not to skid (and to prevent sideways impact) resulting in lower impact damage and lower injuries.)

Third, and this point feels like beating a dead horse, FSD does not and will not result in 0 accidents on the road in the future. The simultaneous surround-video at all times, without a millisecond of inattentiveness, combined with not breaking the speed limit, will already erase the vast majority of accidents out there. Even if in some rare edge cases the FSD-car reacts in a more stupid manner than the human and causes a crash, statistically this will be just a blip on the radar overall.

The metric therefore should be along the lines of: [total amount of damages in crashes] per mile driven. This is however impossible to calculate so we'll just have to work with [amount of crashes with fatalities/injuries/no injuries]/mile driven. FSD will crush this too. (Just erase the death toll of drunk driving alone....)

Current FSD beta might already beat humans on that metric. But this fact will become more and more blatantly obvious in the coming months/years. Therefore I can't wait till FSD beta becomes a public release and Tesla Insurance can report accident data that will shock Insurance companies. From that point on, it's only a matter of time before the regulators follow.

So yes, I'm very bullish on FSD. I'm an attorney dealing mainly in bodily injury (be it by car accidents, work related injuries or other) and 99% of automotive injuries are due to someone not being aware enough of their surroundings (whatever the reason). In 50 years time our descendants won't be able to fathom our time allowed 'human driving'. "What? That sounds so dangerous, grandpa!" - "You think that's bad, [insert errors of humanity from the 20th century]"

The world will become safer, more fun and more productive with FSD. And us TSLA shareholders will make a nice profit on the dawn of FSD as well. (A unique moment in history, I might add, truly groudbreaking. I can't hide my excitement about all this.)

Cheers to Tesla, DOJO, FSD and the disruption they will bring.

I agree to the strong points of FSD. I only doubt the definition of level 5. Like I said, have to see it to believe. For example, how the L5 deal with a possible car jack attempt in this video:
Tesla foils carjacker attempt, Navy officer says

 

[MC3OZ]

They should import some from Belgium, we have plenty falling from the sky on a daily-basis...

I recommend turning that water into Beer, the Germans will pay more, assuming you still want to part with it.

 

[lascavarian]

So, it's really about preventing the stupidest people from using it in an unsupervised manner. As much as I would like Darwin's "survival of the fittest" to take care of things naturally, the resulting innocent carnage would be unacceptable. The takeaway here is that once the system starts getting to be so good that there is a growing body of users that would abuse the system, Tesla must limit access to the best versions to prevent the overall safety rate from dropping below that of the average human driver.

Agreed.

FSD includes shadow mode and the ability to determine if the driver is a “regular” driver. The thing Tesla has only hinted about is that it possible/likely that the NN scores each driver at the same time as it scores FSD. It is possible “it” already knows which drivers are inattentive and cannot be trusted to use a more advanced FSD.

This is a transitional time for FSD and it is likely it has already passed a transition point where it can rate the attentiveness of a driver better than a human. It can then “choose” to learn from only the better drivers. At some point all these minor achievements begin to accelerate progress.

 

[jeewee3000]

I agree to the strong points of FSD. I only doubt the definition of level 5. Like I said, have to see it to believe. For example, how the L5 deal with a possible car jack attempt in this video:
Tesla foils carjacker attempt, Navy officer says

Car jacking is not what I consider an edge case that has to be solved. FSD shouldn't be able to deal with car jackings. Humans can't either. (I didn't learn that in driving school, did you?)

Autonomy will never rule out purposeful (criminal) behaviour. Expecting it to is wrong on so many levels.

 

[EVMeister]

My price target prediction for end of 2021 is $1462.74. Why? Because it's the average of all of the guesses given over the past several pages.

Sorry if I missed anybody out.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Good to know that I'll be able to outrun it in my Cybertruck. Although it will be difficult to hide in it.

You need some of this special paint...

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372090709575090176

Article starts and ends with $TSLA Vs $F....

 

[NicoV]

VW shooting themselves in the foot? FOCUS-Power Play: Volkswagen abruptly pulls plug on South Korean battery makers

 

[strago13]

My target SP for the year is $1,300 a share.

I wanted to add something about the Supercharging network that went unnoticed for me for a while. We bought the LR Model 3 because it gave us enough juice to get the ~180 miles (in all weather conditions) from our house to my MIL/FIL's place in rural VA. During COVID, we had gone down there once or twice, but no trips since the 4th of July. We were just down there about a month ago and I was shocked to notice that there are now two Superchargers (1 operational and 1 almost done) on the way to their house. It caught me completely off guard because it is not the type of area you would expect for them to be. The path we take to get to their house is very rural and there isn't much out there except some Sheetz gas stations (which happens to be where these chargers are), a military base, a coal plant, and a few wineries. Rarely, if ever, have we seen a Tesla on the way to their house.

Times are a changing, Tesla must have seen reason enough to blanket this area in them. I never in a million years expected it, but we will actually be using them over Easter.

 

[NicoV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372090709575090176

Article starts and ends with $TSLA Vs $F....

“There’s been a lot of chat about use of the Mustang name being close to abuse of the hallowed brand. But we couldn’t find anyone – including serial owners of petrol-powered Mustangs – who had anything but good things to say about it. Would they buy one? “Hell, yeah!” was the common response. So mark that one down as a win for the Blue Oval – if you buy a car to get noticed. And to Tesla if you enjoy moving around anonymously.”

How the times have changed: you have to use a Tesla to drive around anonymously.

 

[22522]

When the decision rate is faster than the ability to evaluate outcomes people crash.

It is awareness of outcomes in addition to environment.

Different people evaluate ballistic/momentum information at different speeds. 10:1.

I'm on the other side of the fence: L5 FSD is inevitable and will come earlier than the masses expect it to arrive. (Most say: at least five years from now, or more, or never).


First off, your doubts are underestimating what deep learning can do given enough high quality data. The improvement will grow exponentially once DOJO arrives (unsupervised labeling -> much faster learning cycles).

Second, the problems you discribe: an accident, a police pursuit, ... are all just ballistic problems. The car will see the same a human sees and in most cases much quicker than a human can.

So yes, I'm very bullish on FSD. I'm an attorney dealing mainly in bodily injury (be it by car accidents, work related injuries or other) and 99% of automotive injuries are due to someone not being aware enough of their surroundings (whatever the reason).

 

[matejpi]

I am not so optimistic. At the end of this year, I predict $450 per share. After the year 2022 the stock will appreciate.

 

[RobStark]

VW shooting themselves in the foot? FOCUS-Power Play: Volkswagen abruptly pulls plug on South Korean battery makers

VW is switching from pouch cells to prismatic cells. S Koreans don't have large production capacity for large prismatic cells. VW switching from Korean suppliers to Chinese, North Volt and internal production. I guess either VW or Chinese battery company will build a battery factory in Tennessee ?

Tesla uses cylindrical cells and so will Rivian and Lucid.

So that means more pouch cells for everyone else?

 

[SN_8]

You need some of this special paint...

View attachment 645203

I'm guessing your post was mostly in jest, but isn't this aircraft "stealth" partly because radar that hits it never bounces directly back to the source? Never thought about it until now, but doesn't the cybertruck have roughly that same property?

Add some radar absorbing paint and do something about the large windshield, and it might actually be a good stealth design.

 

[15Peter20]

Red in the pre-market.

Buy at open or wait for the dip? (not)advice required.

 

[juanmedina]

My prediction for the SP for the end of the year is $950 just because I can retire with the SP at a $1000 and I never get what I want.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Ugh-ly start. No green on St. Patty's Day?

 

[RobStark]

Are you sure about that? Porsche provided the car and had both EA and Porsche techs available at each charging stop to try to make sure things worked as well as possible. (At least that is what I read.)

I am extremely sure.

Porsche provided a press car for 36 hrs. Like they do for every automotive journalist/auto youtuber. Then out of spec motoring decided to Cannnonball it.

After they were in The Cannonball EA techs tried to help out as much as possible. EA is not Porsche.

If this was a Porsche run they would have made sure the chargers worked before hand. And hired drivers. And spotters.

 

[Pras]

The problem with the bond market is that predictions have become self fulfilling prophecies. Now the demand in the bond market is sluggish because everyone is expecting yields to rise to 2%. Hence why buy now when you can buy cheaper bonds a few quarters later.

The only thing that can arrest the yield rise is fed signaling some comfort level where they like the 10-yr yield to be at. For example they can hint that they are concerned with yields rising too high as they impact lending, including housing. The other comment could be that if yields rise the cost of stimulus / infrastructure will be higher, hence a natural counterforce.

So by merely hinting that they may step in if needed to prevent melt up in yields will calm the market. Let’s see.

PS: this growth vs value is no longer as relevant a conversation because many models are already pricing higher yields in future. Unless we have runaway inflation, which I don’t see happening, the market is not expecting higher than 2.2-2.5% yield even in the next 2-3 years.