Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ktrivedi70]

Don't do that to me. You totally scared me by implying that Gordo made bullish comments on TSLA.
If it were true, that would have been the first strong sell signal I have ever seen -- considering how much of a contrarian indicator Gordo is.

Sell signal?? I’m almost positive it’s like the seventh sign of the apocalypse. Plagues, locusts, then Gordo.

 

[Fred42]

Bjørn, what a legend, sheeeeet!

Love that guy, devoured his videos back in 2013 when he was one of the few making good content.

If any of the youngsters here don't know him, go watch some, he's funny and informative.

Bjorn and his wife have been sick with COVID, now recovering.

https://www.youtube.com/user/bjornnyland

 

[buttershrimp]

This thread has lead me to realize how much I vastly underestimated the FUD out there on daily basis. Seeking alpha today author wrote back to my comment asking if he had driven a model s performance or autopilot, if so he’d likely understand how far ahead it is? He wrote back, not everyone can afford a model s. So wow, what a giant tool. Haters really really suck.

 

[buttershrimp]

Bjorn and his wife have been sick with COVID, now recovering.

https://www.youtube.com/user/bjornnyland

 

[Mo City]

One thing I realized is that what we saw was gonna happen back in 2017 and had to wait for years for the market to see, is happening again. Tesla are now building three factories that will keep growing for many years. Even if they don’t announce any new gigafactories, they will probably be able to get close to 5M vehicles/year by 2025.

Now in Shanghai they are now ramping Model Y which in a few months will go to three shifts and then be close to 250k/year for a total of 500k/year. Are they stopping there? Now they are building more inhouse supply of everything and have most likely bought land for Model 2 and another 500k vehicles/year:

Austin land is huge and they are already clearing up new areas to start construction. I have a feeling they will be finishing buildings and starting new ones continuously for another 4 years. Model Y, Cybertruck, Model 2 and some more projects. Probably at 500k/y each of each.

Berlin Phase 1 is probably enough for 500k Model Y/year and they already have plans for Phase 2 which will most likely be a Model 2 which likely will be another 500k/year.

So just what they starting now will give them a contious ramp from 500k/year this year to about (500k+1M+2M+1M) and this is just what they are building out right now.

So we bulls will just have to wait for reality to hit the market and people to realize that Tesla will 10x in 5years even without any acceleration of plans(why did they raise capital twice, robotaxi boost etc).

So expect the possibility of like 2-3 more years of the market being mostly flat before it finally realizes what should have been pretty obvious to any sane analyst.

Agree Shanghai, Berlin and especially Austin will be under construction for several years to come and a min 5M vehicles in 2025 is not only achievable, but very likely to be exceeded.

Disagree the market could be flat for 2-3 years. TSLA will pop significantly when either FSD proves legit or significant scaling of 4680 battery production happens. I feel very strongly one of those will occur within 18 months.

I do feel 2021 could be flat.

 

[lafrisbee]

*lightbulb ON*!
Porsche is smooth bro.
Think about it. Smooth as buttery pooh.
One of the key points with the new electric Porsche was charging speeds, and the increase in speed that was going to happen. They got such a massive boost by releasing a car that the battery was degrading at such high charging rates...and then waiting awhile and quietly lowering the charging speed...
Smooth chocolatey buttery pooooooo-rsche.
VW is so proud.

 

[Discoducky]

Agree Shanghai, Berlin and especially Austin will be under construction for several years to come and a min 5M vehicles in 2025 is not only achievable, but very likely to be exceeded.

Disagree the market could be flat for 2-3 years. TSLA will pop significantly when either FSD proves legit or significant scaling of 4680 battery production happens. I feel very strongly one of those will occur within 18 months.

I do feel 2021 could be flat.

While I agree that current factories will continue to increase throughput and create new lines, I fully expect Tesla to start/announce a new factory every year for the next 5 years. It is just in their DNA to continually improve and expand to achieve the mission.

Also, disagree the market could be flat, I think the major items that will move the stock are financials and manufacturing numbers like production and delivery numbers coupled with margin. I imagine that Elon will never stop reducing prices when economies of scale milestones are being obliterated. He'll continue to ensure they are always production constrained, no matter how much incredible value they pack into the car and he'll never advertise, never pay a dividend because every penny is spent towards engineering and manufacturing. If he gave money to investors it would be like marketing and he hates marketing. But it's also the reason that many folks don't yet know about Teslas' insurmountable lead that is continuing to get bigger as the years go by.

I think 2021 will be huge when it is seen how much economies of scale and production/deliveries are occurring relative to traditional auto in markets that Tesla currently competes in.

 

[brianhn1]

The other photo (partially) shows 25 similar containers, pretty full with smaller, irregular metal parts, likely aluminum. There is also a structure described as a 'shredder', which it could be. No gigacastings are visible in the second photo. The post claims without much detail that this second group of containers hold about one week's worth of shredded gigacastings.

The "shredder" described in the 2nd picture is not correct. The two ramps going up are actually just unused conveyors that currently feed to nothing present beneath them. They are probably used in the past to feed cardboard or paper into a horizontal baler. I build equipment used on horizontal balers and shredders.

If you look on google maps, the 2nd reddit picture is of the scrap yard located on the south side of the Fremont factory while the Gigapress is on the Northside of the Fremont factory. It isn't that hard to realize that the scrap aluminum doesn't travel that far just to be stored so likely that is from another source of the factory.

 

[asburgers]

The "shredder" described in the 2nd picture is not correct. The two ramps going up are actually just unused conveyors that currently feed to nothing present beneath them. They are probably used in the past to feed cardboard or paper into a horizontal baler. I build equipment used on horizontal balers and shredders.

If you look on google maps, the 2nd reddit picture is of the scrap yard located on the south side of the Fremont factory while the Gigapress is on the Northside of the Fremont factory. It isn't that hard to realize that the scrap aluminum doesn't travel that far just to be stored so likely that is from another source of the factory.

View attachment 647456

They are going to need a larger container for those tears.

 

[Ohmster]

... Powerwalls are also mainly sold as a package with solar, which greatly increases the revenue per kWh.

Yes. In fact, Tesla recently announced that PowerWalls would only be available with full solar installations going forward.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes. In fact, Tesla recently announced that PowerWalls would only be available with full solar installations going forward.

Hmmm that must be a "demand problem".

I am expecting that a factory for production of 4680 LFP cells for energy storage batteries "somewhere" would be a priority.

Initially those 4680 LFP cells are only going into Megapack and Powerpack, but this move should free up some cells for Powerwalls.

 

[Ohmster]

Hmmm that must be a "demand problem".

I am expecting that a factory for production of 4680 LFP cells for energy storage batteries "somewhere" would be a priority.

Initially those 4680 LFP cells are only going into Megapack and Powerpack, but this move should free up some cells for Powerwalls.

Demand. Yes. I've been waiting for my 3 PowerWalls (to replace our original Gen1 ugly box) since July.....

 

[ZeApelido]

The "shredder" described in the 2nd picture is not correct. The two ramps going up are actually just unused conveyors that currently feed to nothing present beneath them. They are probably used in the past to feed cardboard or paper into a horizontal baler. I build equipment used on horizontal balers and shredders.

If you look on google maps, the 2nd reddit picture is of the scrap yard located on the south side of the Fremont factory while the Gigapress is on the Northside of the Fremont factory. It isn't that hard to realize that the scrap aluminum doesn't travel that far just to be stored so likely that is from another source of the factory.

View attachment 647456

I don't know , TSLAQ has never exaggerated a claim to this day.

 

[Discoducky]

Demand. Yes. I've been waiting for my 3 PowerWalls (to replace our original Gen1 ugly box) since July.....

I'm currently awaiting a final design from Tesla Solar which includes 2 Powerwalls. Will be interesting to see what is spec'd.

 

[Discoducky]

Cool tech coming, who knows when will be ready for prime time, hopefully is latent enough and robust enough to be used for enhancing safety:
Tom's Guide: Google just made Wi-Fi way better than Bluetooth — here’s how.

Google just made Wi-Fi way better than Bluetooth — here’s how

New tech promises some amazing new features

www.tomsguide.com

Also, to be clear, I post this here as Tesla is most likely to benefit from this in the nearest term.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Price increases for Model Y in China

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374589977900720131

 

[Robertj]

nice WSJ article on Model 3

The Tesla Model 3 Rocks for 311’s Nick Hexum

He installed a solar-panel array to power his house and charge his family’s electric cars; ‘I never imagined that I would drive a car powered by the sun.’

www.wsj.com

 

[S3XY]

And, it is written, on March 23rd Thou shalt not go above 670. As above this level is a sin punishable by pushdown.

Couldn't help but think about this.

 

[Mo City]

nice WSJ article on Model 3

The Tesla Model 3 Rocks for 311’s Nick Hexum

He installed a solar-panel array to power his house and charge his family’s electric cars; ‘I never imagined that I would drive a car powered by the sun.’

www.wsj.com

Indeed, but I made the mistake of reading the comments.

Sigh!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla AI Director Talks Elon Musk, FSD Beta, Deep Learning, & Waymo Competition