Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

It's gonna be ok y'all....nothings changed except battery constraints ....Still executing on all fronts. Next short burn will soon initialize.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

“It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words: 'And this, too, shall pass away.'"

Was it monarch or a eunuch?

 

[bigsmooth125]

Well I’m a man of my word......bought some 700 and 710 April 9th calls. Seems like Wall St is so sure Q1 P/D numbers are going to be bad....I’m going to call their bluff.

This is with relatively small money so it’s no biggie if I swing and miss

You don't seem to understand the definition of a bluff.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's gonna be ok y'all....nothings changed except battery constraints ....Still executing on all fronts. Next short burn will soon initialize.

That didn't even change. We all knew that right?

 

[asburgers]

Wow. What happened to GOEV this morning. Yesh.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

JPR007 has an interesting argument on twitter:

Tesla will be capacity-constrained versus Natural Demand through at least 2031
And second-level analysis says it will be much longer than that

So let’s examine the reason for saying so Looking at the chart, Natural Demand continues marching upwards - shown by the upper Red line Aggregate Supply is already contracting - shown by the lower Red line

But that gap between the two Red lines represents an unavoidable “vacuum” between Supply and Demand
And industry-wide it is physically impossible to fill that gap before 2030
And most likely not easy to do even after that.

And it does not matter who you are in the industry during this “Red Triangle” period, if you have an attractive product for the market, you are not going to have enough capacity to meet all of the Demand
“What Capacity ?”
- Battery Capacity[/qutoe]

By my reckoning that is a shortfall of about 700 million cars.

[trying again: as my last attempt at this post linked to JPR007 tweets (including the image) that referenced a Gary Black tweet as context - a big no-no ]

 

[Johan]

Voltswagen™. I'm dying here. This some high level comedy. I had to check to make sure that March still has 31 days and that it's not April 1st yet in some time zone.

Update: Voltswagen's US name change was just a marketing stunt

VW said its future electric vehicles would wear a “Voltswagen” badge and a new take on the company logo.

www.motorauthority.com

https://www.vw.com/en/models/id-4.html

Well, it's clear EVs are the future. Now what we've been speculating about for the last 10 years in finally occuring: The legacy car makers are rebranding themselves as EV makers, or making subsidiaries/spin-offs that are pure EV makers (Volvo - Polestar, for example).

 

[Mike Smith]

By this market's logic if the 10 yr rises to 4% all growth stocks will be at $0.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm feeling great this morning. This double charge FUD push reeks of desperation. The people fraudulently making up these stories know that this won't last so it's probably an effort to cover or make a short term play.

 

[asburgers]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm feeling great this morning. This double charge FUD push reeks of desperation. The people fraudulently making up these stories know that this won't last so it's probably an effort to cover or make a short term play.

I feel that there's a lot of positive news that hasn't been priced in:
- Rivian lawsuit allowed to proceed
- Biden EV infrastructure speech tomorrow + possible increase in rebates to $10k
- Possible deal with Toyota (easy on this one as the same publication also broke "news" of the Apple/Hyundai/Kai deal that failed to materialize
- CT ahead of schedule
- Semi deliveries this year + Semi/Mega charger deals
- Low deliveries expectation from Troy, etc.
- etc...

Peak despair has been reached...again.

 

[dgodfrey]

The article mentions that Lidar based systems cannot see objects or street signs WHICH IS A BIG ASS DEAL if competitors didn't have a camera, but they do. The other players are not missing anything if they want to stick to a localized area. They don't need any Tesla's key ingredient as Waymo is already at L4 in geofenced area. Tesla's key ingredients sole purpose is to be able to scale faster and cheaply. Mountains of data is obviously NOT needed unless those are your goals. There's a huge difference between monetizing transport via robotaxies and generalized autonomy. You can start monetizing transporti via robotaxies way before generalized autonomy, which is the route Waymo is choosing. Tesla is in no hurry as they already monetized autonomy in the form of pre-orders.

Just having cameras isn't nearly enough to be able to think on it's feet as Stealth I think mentioned. You're grossly underestimating the significance of the "data snowball" as it gives the eyes a brain that can adapt to live situations. High def mapping along with vision without the NN can't get out of the maze once you change the course.

"This is why Mobileye is using LiDAR (combined with CV) and building 3-D maps of cities one city at a time. Without a fleet of autonomous data collecting robots to feed into ever increasingly large models, LiDAR is the best solution. But ultimately, this is limiting. Assembling high-definition maps city by city is an arduous, slow process and creates an inflexible system that cannot handle change. "

The driving environment is not static and it's a fools errand to design and plan for a solution to the problem thinking so. You can today drop a Tesla with the beta FSD in the middle of Mexico City and pin a destination and it will find it's way there with ~95-99% success rate.

"In this hypothetical situation, Waymo may be able to develop computer vision models that perform at 90% or even 95% accuracy but achieving that several 9s-level performance (e.g. 99.99%) through vision is not practical with the size of their small fleet. This is why Mobileye is using LiDAR (combined with CV) and building 3-D maps of cities one city at a time."

Try that with a Cadillac with Cruise or Waymo 5 years from now. But as you said, If they want to stick to their localized area, have at it.

 

[elasalle]

& the SP takes off ...
(+ the bots shorting Tesla on the premise that EM is a bad guy got short circuited )

 

[Pras]

Why isn’t TSLA getting lift from potential infrastructure bill? A carbon tax will be a huge lift.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Model 3 & Y Take Leading Positions in February 2021 China EV Sales

China continues to experience a boom in electric vehicle sales. Tesla Model 3 and Model Y took two spots in the Top 3 sales in China in February 2021.

www.tesmanian.com

 

[asburgers]

Starbase, TX looks like it could be a decent place to retire.

 

[tslalala]

Scary morning when TSLA dipped to $591.01. Our troops are defending as we're back above $600 at $614.18 now! Maybe Cathie and other quiet hedge funds' buy orders are louder than words or FUD news hit pieces!

 

[saniflash]

someone's got the P&D numbers early it seems

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Mule pumping call options...Toyota rumors...Biden initiatives...stonk drips like a rock.

Me need some dry powder/couch cushions

I don't see what's so wrong with salivating over cheap calls with SP depressed. That used to be the whole purpose of this thread!

Missed my window this morning with GME spiking to $200 and TSLA dipping to $594. Coulda rolled out of stonks for good and into more calls. Good thing we scheduled that pointless call instead! Hopefully I get one more shot today. Gonna hold out for a late MMD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Exclusive: PayPal launches crypto checkout service | 10:08 a.m. ET

"LONDON (Reuters) - PayPal Holdings Inc will announce later on Tuesday that it has started allowing U.S. consumers to use their cryptocurrency holdings to pay at millions of its online merchants globally, a move that could significantly boost use of digital assets in everyday commerce.​

​

"Customers who hold bitcoin, ether, bitcoin cash and litecoin in PayPal digital wallets will now be able to convert their holdings into fiat currencies at checkouts to make purchases, the company said."​

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Why isn’t TSLA getting lift from potential infrastructure bill? A carbon tax will be a huge lift.

Tesla are production constrained, so they won't sell any more cars, storage or solar. Competitors, especially those with sub-standard and/or expensive products will benefit.