Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVortex]

As is already the case in some locations, they should pass a law that all new home garages must have 240-volt electrical wiring and the proper electrical outlets to charge an electric car. This would not cost the government and its taxpayers anything. They should also consider offering full or partial credits to those who install such electrical improvements in existing home garages.

Great point. California is one of those locations. CA started requiring L2 for EV charging in 2015 in new residential construction. They also require solar.

 

[thx1139]

So I just noticed that Lucid is advertising on CNBC. Lucid Air is Model S “competitor”.

So they are already starting with so much disadvantage. Lack of manufacturing and sourcing scale, charging infra, and now they have to spend on marketing. Even if their tech is at par with Tesla, their ROI will be so poor. The only thing they are differentiating is “luxury”. But competiting with Tesla in same price point will be very difficult.

I see Lucid advertisements all the time. All that $ that Tesla saves not having to advertise.

 

[asburgers]

Damn it to hell man...stop this drug dealing!

Edit to add...not tempted at all...nope not one bit

Stop lying to yourself.

 

[canoemore]

So I just noticed that Lucid is advertising on CNBC. Lucid Air is Model S “competitor”.

So they are already starting with so much disadvantage. Lack of manufacturing and sourcing scale, charging infra, and now they have to spend on marketing. Even if their tech is at par with Tesla, their ROI will be so poor. The only thing they are differentiating is “luxury”. But competiting with Tesla in same price point will be very difficult.

I've never understood why traditionally defined "luxury" is so desirable so I might not have the best read on this, but I have to think that once FSD becomes a true hands-off reality traditional automotive luxury will be instantly outdated. The most "luxurious" car that you have to drive yourself in traffic will be leagues behind a car that drives itself while you read a book, play video games, etc.

Which is the better "luxury" product - a Nokia with a diamond studded keypad or an iPhone?

 

[dhanson865]

So I just noticed that Lucid is advertising on CNBC. Lucid Air is Model S “competitor”.

So they are already starting with so much disadvantage. Lack of manufacturing and sourcing scale, charging infra, and now they have to spend on marketing. Even if their tech is at par with Tesla, their ROI will be so poor. The only thing they are differentiating is “luxury”. But competing with Tesla at the same price point will be very difficult.

I thought they had a niche until I saw the new Model S interior. I don't want the model S personally due to size and cost but I like the new interior and think it steps it up a notch on luxury that people used to say Tesla didn't have.

 

[Pras]

I've never understood why traditionally defined "luxury" is so desirable so I might not have the best read on this, but I have to think that once FSD becomes a true hands-off reality traditional luxury will be instantly outdated. The most "luxurious" car that you have to drive yourself in traffic will be leagues behind a car that drives itself while you read a book, play video games, etc.

Which is the better "luxury" product - a Nokia with a diamond studded keypad or an iPhone?

More buttons!

But seriously, you are right. To me luxury is the tech, the cleanliness/simplicity, and also the exclusivity to have dedicated charging station. In fact, superchargers are the real luxury differentiator (the same feeling you get when sitting in business class lounge).

 

[Unpilot]

Stop lying to yourself.

I'm so out of anything to buy with ...unless I sell my dog...she is 12 years old...so 1 chair?

 

[Curt Renz]

Can we all just take a moment to appreciate how nice and effective that 1 hour walkdown chart is? MM's on their game today

Despite being a Thursday, it's a weekly options expiration day due to tomorrow being a market holiday. So the hedge funds and market makers may be employing options related manipulations.

There may also be some "selling on news", following the runup into Biden's infrastructure speech. And there are likely some weak longs not willing to hold into the soon to be released Q1 deliveries report.

 

[lklundin]

not sure if authentic, TeslaFacts (ex Fact Checking) believes so

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377538895055892483

View attachment 649854

I did not react kindly to this tweet. It's just a couple of weeks ago that some other Tesla bull tweeted their "breaking" insider scoop (to the effect that Fremont was closing down for two weeks) - that turned out to be totally misleading. In this case it is an unverified Twitter account (who is not known for such previous breaking scoops) claiming inside sources - who tweets what is purportedly an email, but with no meta information (time stamps, indication of an actual sender address or name).

Think about, if someone was again trying to manipulate the SP, this is exactly how they would go about it, trick someone - either the twitter account holder or their friend - to think that this email is the real deal.

I don't see how this helps anyone - and I certainly don't see how such an unconfirmed, easily faked screenshot of part of an email would form the basis for any kind of trade.

To me these 'breaking' Tesla tweets is just a sign that some people on social media are so hungry for 5 minutes of fame that they have absolutely no critical thinking left when it comes to what to post.

Maybe the only thing that lends credence to this tweet is that TroyTeslike on Twitter found the inferred numbers to be unplausible.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Damn it to hell man...stop this drug dealing!

Edit to add...not tempted at all...nope not one bit

For real. I'm done with this micromanaging nonsense.

There should be a platform that lets you automate leveraged plays with off the shelf products. All I wanted to do was add ratcheting leverage starting 3 weeks ago and continuing for a maximum of 5 weeks. They can't automate such a thing with simple AI?

I'm gonna figure out a better plan for next time there's an unexplainable $100 dip. Something multi-contingent I can program into the Fidelity platform and walk away for days at a time.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's not a huge thing, but Elon joining the board of a UFC/Pageant company is stupid. Tesla already has a problem with a little bit of a tech bro image. Elon's teasing about red pills and the like, fair or not, is also being seen as an embrace of the conservative right.

I'm glad the conservative right can feel some sort of affinity towards Elon. That's one reason GoJo's observations of a "demand problem" make him the laughing stock of anyone familiar with Tesla's business.

And to head off the inevitable retort about how he is an adult and can have his own life, yes of course. However, we can't then say that everything he does is about the mission. (I like the UFC myself, and I probably am a tech bro. Pageants are so pointless and creepy though.)

If I know Elon, he didn't get involved in a beauty pageant because he thought it was a great opportunity to ogle some young beauties who might think a "quark" must be a clique of quirky people, nor did he do it to further sexist stereotypes - quite the opposite. I'm guessing he wants to change beauty pageants for the better. I'm pretty sure he wants to be an advocate for intellectual achievements and abilities and to have these attributes appropriately weighted in the judging criteria. Elon wants to empower young women and bring beauty pageants into the modern era.

He's all about trying to make the world a better place and he's not afraid to crawl down into the creepy circles of people that run these things in order to make them better. And if this gets more intelligent and beautiful young women to aspire to Tesla ownership, he has created some great marketing, the kind you can't buy. A new Tesla will probably be one of the top pageant awards and the winner will represent, not only physical beauty, but also superior mental abilities and toughness. Elon thinks years ahead and he loves to fix two bugs by changing one line of code. What a great marketing opportunity! Elon is always working to better the world.

This is why I invest in Tesla. Anyone trying to portray this as some kind of negative needs to look a little deeper beneath the surface. Because it's absolutely brilliant!

 

[ninpb]

I've never understood why traditionally defined "luxury" is so desirable so I might not have the best read on this, but I have to think that once FSD becomes a true hands-off reality traditional luxury will be instantly outdated. The most "luxurious" car that you have to drive yourself in traffic will be leagues behind a car that drives itself while you read a book, play video games, etc.

Which is the better "luxury" product - a Nokia with a diamond studded keypad or an iPhone?

How can these peasants fiddling with that steering wheel possibly hand you some grey poupon for your wednesday Model S drive/meal.

 

[UltradoomY]

More buttons!

But seriously, you are right. To me luxury is the tech, the cleanliness/simplicity, and also the exclusivity to have dedicated charging station. In fact, superchargers are the real luxury differentiator (the same feeling you get when sitting in business class lounge).

Real luxury is having a driver or chauffer - once FSD is wide release - that's like having a personal driver that you dont have to keep paying!

 

[Unpilot]

I'm glad the conservative right can feel some sort of affinity towards Elon. That's one reason GoJo's observations of a "demand problem" make him the laughing stock of anyone familiar with Tesla's business.

If I know Elon, he didn't get involved in a beauty pageant because he thought it was a great opportunity to ogle some young beauties who might think a "quark" must be a clique of quirky people, nor did he do it to further sexist stereotypes - quite the opposite. I'm guessing he wants to change beauty pageants for the better. I'm pretty sure he wants to be an advocate for intellectual achievements and abilities and to have these attributes appropriately weighted in the judging criteria. Elon wants to empower young women and bring beauty pageants into the modern era.

He's all about trying to make the world a better place and he's not afraid to crawl down into the creepy circles of people that run these things in order to make them better. And if this gets more intelligent and beautiful young women to aspire to Tesla ownership, he has created some great marketing, the kind you can't buy. A new Tesla will probably be one of the top pageant awards and the winner will represent, not only physical beauty, but also superior mental abilities and toughness. Elon thinks years ahead and he loves to fix two bugs by changing one line of code. What a great marketing opportunity! Elon is always working to better the world.

This is why I invest in Tesla. Anyone trying to portray this as some kind of negative needs to look at this with a bit more of an open mind.

I like you man...and your line of reasoning is sound...however it could be that he likes hanging around young beautiful woman...I know I do.

They just don't like hanging around me.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I did not react kindly to this tweet. It's just a couple of weeks ago that some other Tesla bull tweeted their "breaking" insider scoop (to the effect that Fremont was closing down for two weeks) - that turned out to be totally misleading. In this case it is an unverified Twitter account (who is not known for such previous breaking scoops) claiming inside sources - who tweets what is purportedly an email, but with no meta information (time stamps, indication of an actual sender address or name).

Think about, if someone was again trying to manipulate the SP, this is exactly how they would go about it, trick someone - either the twitter account holder or their friend - to think that this email is the real deal.

I don't see how this helps anyone - and I certainly don't see how such an unconfirmed, easily faked screenshot of part of an email would form the basis for any kind of trade.

To me these 'breaking' Tesla tweets is just a sign that some people on social media are so hungry for 5 minutes of fame that they have absolutely no critical thinking left when it comes to what to post.

Maybe the only thing that lends credence to this tweet is that TroyTeslike on Twitter found the inferred numbers to be unplausible.

I'll start off by saying I'm not saying that email is real or not but:

A ) It was verified by another source as well.
B) In one of Tesla Fact's follow up tweets, he breaks it down so that math does in fact line up

While I respect all the work that Troy does, he doesn't respond well to reports or really anything that doesn't line up with his estimates. His fundamental flaw is that Tesla could change up their methods any quarter. We already know Tesla shipped 1 more ship this quarter than last. What we don't know is if Tesla increased the amount of cars per ship over last quarter. If you ask me, it's Troy's numbers that do not add up. His numbers for Europe are low compared to the facts I stated just now. If you look back at one of my posts from the other day, we know Giga China will have made and delivered around 75k for Q1. Fremont should have the run rate ability to produce 125k for this quarter. Subtract out 15k for the days production was down.

Something's off here with Troy's numbers or the days of production lost at Fremont in Q1 were higher than we know. But if we're looking at the data that we DO know in terms of down days at Fremont and Giga China production, estimates should be at 175k or higher, with a possibility of 180k

 

[Nurkbonis]

I did not react kindly to this tweet. It's just a couple of weeks ago that some other Tesla bull tweeted their "breaking" insider scoop (to the effect that Fremont was closing down for two weeks) - that turned out to be totally misleading. In this case it is an unverified Twitter account (who is not known for such previous breaking scoops) claiming inside sources - who tweets what is purportedly an email, but with no meta information (time stamps, indication of an actual sender address or name).

Think about, if someone was again trying to manipulate the SP, this is exactly how they would go about it, trick someone - either the twitter account holder or their friend - to think that this email is the real deal.

I don't see how this helps anyone - and I certainly don't see how such an unconfirmed, easily faked screenshot of part of an email would form the basis for any kind of trade.

To me these 'breaking' Tesla tweets is just a sign that some people on social media are so hungry for 5 minutes of fame that they have absolutely no critical thinking left when it comes to what to post.

Maybe the only thing that lends credence to this tweet is that TroyTeslike on Twitter found the inferred numbers to be unplausible.

FWIW, Whole Mars Blog tweeted about this email and in the replies showed DMs from random people allegedly confirming it's true. Could be fake. Guess we need to wait for the official numbers to find out.

 

[Nocturnal]

I've never understood why traditionally defined "luxury" is so desirable so I might not have the best read on this, but I have to think that once FSD becomes a true hands-off reality traditional automotive luxury will be instantly outdated. The most "luxurious" car that you have to drive yourself in traffic will be leagues behind a car that drives itself while you read a book, play video games, etc.

Which is the better "luxury" product - a Nokia with a diamond studded keypad or an iPhone?

Does anyone under the age of 50 or so really care about those old fashioned ideas of luxury anyway? Millennials and Gen-x (and newer) don't care about owning fine china and I doubt most of us care about some rare wood being inlaid into the dash. We buy Apple watches rather than Rolexes.

I'm glad the conservative right can feel some sort of affinity towards Elon. That's one reason GoJo's observations of a "demand problem" make him the laughing stock of anyone familiar with Tesla's business.

If I know Elon, he didn't get involved in a beauty pageant because he thought it was a great opportunity to ogle some young beauties who might think a "quark" must be a clique of quirky people, nor did he do it to further sexist stereotypes - quite the opposite. I'm guessing he wants to change beauty pageants for the better. I'm pretty sure he wants to be an advocate for intellectual achievements and abilities and to have these attributes appropriately weighted in the judging criteria. Elon wants to empower young women and bring beauty pageants into the modern era.

He's all about trying to make the world a better place and he's not afraid to crawl down into the creepy circles of people that run these things in order to make them better. And if this gets more intelligent and beautiful young women to aspire to Tesla ownership, he has created some great marketing, the kind you can't buy. A new Tesla will probably be one of the top pageant awards and the winner will represent, not only physical beauty, but also superior mental abilities and toughness. Elon thinks years ahead and he loves to fix two bugs by changing one line of code. What a great marketing opportunity! Elon is always working to better the world.

This is why I invest in Tesla. Anyone trying to portray this as some kind of negative needs to look a little deeper beneath the surface. Because it's absolutely brilliant!

Disagree. That doesn't translate into Tesla sales, it only adds controversy and alienates the group that has actually made Tesla possible. This isn't "mainstream" Republicans, but the weird alt-right Qanon crowd that this stuff appeals to. If he wanted to expand sales away from the liberal/climate change crowd he should speak more about foreign oil, war, energy independence vs "red pills".

If Elon is doing this to improve beauty pageants then he isn't as intelligent as I think. The future female STEM leaders aren't going to say "oh, well I wanted to be an engineer, but now I'll join Ms. America!" Elon isn't perfect by a long shot. If he takes a dump we don't need to ascribe noble intentions to it.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm glad the conservative right can feel some sort of affinity towards Elon. That's one reason GoJo's observations of a "demand problem" make him the laughing stock of anyone familiar with Tesla's business.

If I know Elon, he didn't get involved in a beauty pageant because he thought it was a great opportunity to ogle some young beauties who might think a "quark" must be a clique of quirky people, nor did he do it to further sexist stereotypes - quite the opposite. I'm guessing he wants to change beauty pageants for the better. I'm pretty sure he wants to be an advocate for intellectual achievements and abilities and to have these attributes appropriately weighted in the judging criteria. Elon wants to empower young women and bring beauty pageants into the modern era.

He's all about trying to make the world a better place and he's not afraid to crawl down into the creepy circles of people that run these things in order to make them better. And if this gets more intelligent and beautiful young women to aspire to Tesla ownership, he has created some great marketing, the kind you can't buy. A new Tesla will probably be one of the top pageant awards and the winner will represent, not only physical beauty, but also superior mental abilities and toughness. Elon thinks years ahead and he loves to fix two bugs by changing one line of code. What a great marketing opportunity! Elon is always working to better the world.

This is why I invest in Tesla. Anyone trying to portray this as some kind of negative needs to look at this with a bit more of an open mind.

Events venues / Boring Company - unfamiliar locations, often flying in, surge of people, taxi waits, people want to drink. Get used to it at one town (Vegas) & expect it everywhere.

Airport > hotels (pay for stations/tunnels) > event venue(s)

 

[JustMe]

I'll start off by saying I'm not saying that email is real or not but:

A ) It was verified by another source as well.
B) In one of Tesla Fact's follow up tweets, he breaks it down so that math does in fact line up

While I respect all the work that Troy does, he doesn't respond well to reports or really anything that doesn't line up with his estimates. His fundamental flaw is that Tesla could change up their methods any quarter. We already know Tesla shipped 1 more ship this quarter than last. What we don't know is if Tesla increased the amount of cars per ship over last quarter. If you ask me, it's Troy's numbers that do not add up. His numbers for Europe are low compared to the facts I stated just now. If you look back at one of my posts from the other day, we know Giga China will have made and delivered around 75k for Q1. Fremont should have the run rate ability to produce 125k for this quarter. Subtract out 15k for the days production was down.

Something's off here with Troy's numbers or the days of production lost at Fremont in Q1 were higher than we know. But if we're looking at the data that we DO know in terms of down days at Fremont and Giga China production, estimates should be at 175k or higher, with a possibility of 180k

Troy has a lot riding on this P’nD report. Could make or break his patreon account.
He seems a bit overconfident in his estimate. It’ll be an interesting sideshow to see who got it right.

 

[Pras]

Real luxury is having a driver or chauffer - once FSD is wide release - that's like having a personal driver that you dont have to keep paying!

Agree FSD is a key differentiator. On that topic, FSD subscription option will increase net demand by a huge.

Buyers who are hesitant or not able to pay $10k upfront will like to have the optionality to subscribe as and when needed. For example, potential buyers of ID.4 vs Model3 will have to consider FSD optionality even though he/she may not be willing to put down $10k upfront.

Lastly, resale value of a tesla will always be strong because of that upside option (tesla can buy back a $40k car, and sell them with FSD with huge mark up).