Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LiveLong&Profit]

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And so it begins...

 

[ninpb]

From what I'm getting, on information from Asian sources... there's really not a "chip shortage" per se. It's just how cyclical things are. Usually companies (carmakers in this case) make their orders (or their OEMs) to chipmakers/foundrys on a quarterly or yearly basis. As covid kicked in, they started cancelling orders left and right. From chipmaker's perspective, they were like... "ok, let's get the production shifted to those who didn't cancel". This is important for TSLA because they might be those few ones who didn't cancel their orders and march along.

Fast forward to 2021, the economy is recovering from covid and carmakers are realizing that without those chips that they canceled, they weren't going to match their production rate. So, they all rush to foundries like TSMC for their chips to be made. However, TSMC and other were already producing at 100% capacity. And there isn't much they can do because chip productions are very difficult/expensive to ramp, so it's carefully calculated so that it always runs near capacity. Thus, a sudden "comeback" of canceled orders that were supposed to be part of a 100% production planning is what's causing the "shortage". It's just there's only so much production, and the carmakers lost their chance for chip production.

If they want to blame on anything, it should be blamed on their own short-sighted vision.

I wonder if the thought of over ordering chips was even in Kirkhorns mind to resell at a profit to other makers. Tesla has been good with forecasting and aren't afraid to pull unorthodox maneuvers when the opportunities presents itself.

 

[Hock1]

I understand that to mean that the order book is very strong, possibly exceeding their internal expectations for demand on those models.

Just to clarify: as I understand it, right now orders for the refreshed Model S and the Plaid (non-+) are being taken. I ordered a refreshed S (18520 battery pack: 412 Mi.) last week and was told May or June delivery.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You forgot the credits in China. That one makes me giggle.

Yep. VW paying for Tesla China expansion.

 

[ZachF]

Those Q1 numbers.... Holy Sugar!!!

 

[Tslynk67]

I looked into the inventory as of 2 days ago. There are 3 S/X left in the entire U.S. Their pricing was pennies on the dollar. Still over 100k each for the P variant.

Not sure what you're pushing at here, mate. All the S&X sold in Q1 were pre-refresh models, inventory models, I think. Where's the evidence that they were a) all Performance spec, b) sold at full price?

There's none. The most reasonable scenario is that it was a mix of specs and they were sold with decent discounts to shift them out.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

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He probably got a test drive from someone with FSD

 

[Krugerrand]

Biz Journal reporting SpaceX will be building across the toll road from Giga Austin. Does that make sense?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think they’re trying to tell us something

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377618168705859585

They were indeed. Just wish I had been smart enough to act on it yesterday.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

 

[Singuy]

Not sure what you're pushing at here, mate. All the S&X sold in Q1 were pre-refresh models, inventory models, I think. Where's the evidence that they were a) all Performance spec, b) sold at full price?

There's none. The most reasonable scenario is that it was a mix of specs and they were sold with decent discounts to shift them out.

Performance models are typically the hardest to move in any quarter and usually they are the left overs given their price tag and demand. We have done inventory checks before and it's typically just a bunch of Ps left over with a few LRs sprinkled in there.

 

[thx1139]

This is kinda cool video from today by IDRA. Wonder which press this is?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Next question is of course.....when is the split coming? Share price should probably cross $1k in the run up to 4Q earnings. Time for another 5:1 split IMO, and if I get a vote.....a CASH RAISE. You can never have too many gigafactories.

 

[SunCatcher]

Biz Journal reporting SpaceX will be building across the toll road from Giga Austin. Does that make sense?

Giga Texas single casting stage 1 rocket chassis? Kidding, but nothing will surprise me coming from Tesla anymore. What a thing to behold. The future's being built before our eyes people! Go Tesla!!!

 

[johnm6875]

This is kinda cool video from today by IDRA. Wonder which press this is?

6000 ton presses. Model OL 6100 CS in Video - DCC 6000 in Shanghai. I think similar series for the two in Fremont and one installed in Austin.

 

[gene]

Tesla is certainly expecting business to be brisk: Supercharger - Harris Ranch, CA (Permit filed for an 80-stall expansion)

 

[Iain]

Biz Journal reporting SpaceX will be building across the toll road from Giga Austin. Does that make sense?

I just drove past the factory a couple of weeks ago and they are clearing the area right over I-30, my understanding is that is owned by Tesla.

 

[kanweg]

About the effect on the SP, what did that deleted tweet from Elon at the end of last month say again? Wasn’t that about when Tesla would be a trillion dollar company? In a few months. Well, Monday could be a good start towards that milestone.

While this is not a forum for speculating, indulge me. He may know something I don’t.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

About the effect on the SP, what did that deleted tweet from Elon at the end of last month say again? Wasn’t that about when Tesla would be a trillion dollar company? In a few months. Well, Monday could be a good start towards that milestone.

The tweet was about the chance that Tesla becomes the largest company in the world.......to which Elon said in a matter of months

 

[dl003]

The tweet was about the chance that Tesla becomes the largest company in the world.......to which Elon said in a matter of months

I think that speaks to how excited Elon is about FSD. Now, whether that translates into drastic stock appreciation in a few months... I wouldn't take Elon's view on the SP but I totally believe FSD will be a spiritual moment for us all and that TSLA will surpass AMZN and AAPL in a few years. In a few months, well, like he said, the chance is >0%.