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There is no one World government. Some Countries will adopt first and reap the benefits of FSD architecture. Tesla can activate in those Countries first. All other Contries will then follow once they understand the savings measured in lives saved. It is a no brainer.The market needs to see Robotaxi certification cleared by the government before they can factor in robotaxi revenues, before that they can start modeling FSD take rate and put that under margins.
This is a huge hurdle that it's up in the air if Tesla will ever get the certification or not even if they have a very competent system. Many shorts or wrong doers are willing to claim all sorts of lies against the system, clouding the government's judgement. Currently the government literally investigates every freaken major crash. And now we know some people are blaming autopilot for their accidents EVEN when their system is not active trying to get out of their liability. This is a uphill battle Google didn't have to deal with this because it was such an enclosed system since only employees get to run their autonomy program.
We have seen autopilot FUD all over the world. No shortage of the Chinese and the Germans play into the FUD's hand. Tesla even lost the lawsuit calling it autopilot in Germany.There is no one World government. Some Countries will adopt first and reap the benefits of FSD architecture. Tesla can activate in those Countries first. All other Contries will then follow once they understand the savings measured in lives saved. It is a no brainer.
I recall seeing recently 3/Y margins in China reported to be in the 30-35% range; with Fremont in the 20-25% range.I am so excited to see the margins on 3/Y since this Q they are not mixed up with S/X. Very rare opportunity this Q.
The market needs to see Robotaxi certification cleared by the government before they can factor in robotaxi revenues, before that they can start modeling FSD take rate and put that under margins.
This is a huge hurdle that it's up in the air if Tesla will ever get the certification or not even if they have a very competent system. Many shorts or wrong doers are willing to claim all sorts of lies against the system, clouding the government's judgement. Currently the government literally investigates every freaken major crash. And now we know some people are blaming autopilot for their accidents EVEN when their system is not active trying to get out of their liability. This is a uphill battle Google didn't have to deal with this because it was such an enclosed system since only employees get to run their autonomy program.
No world government?...But illuminati...and lizard people...George Soros.There is no one World government. Some Countries will adopt first and reap the benefits of FSD architecture. Tesla can activate in those Countries first. All other Contries will then follow once they understand the savings measured in lives saved. It is a no brainer.
Biz Journal reporting SpaceX will be building across the toll road from Giga Austin. Does that make sense?
I thought the company needs to submit a bunch data like intervention free miles to the authorities first? Isn't that what Waymo did?RTs are legal today in a bunch of US states.
The "OMG REGULATORS" thing is 100% a red herring obstacle to introducing an L5 (or even L4) system once a company actually has one they trust enough to let the public use.
The only thing stopping someone today is nobody has one today they trust that much (outside of heavily geofenced L4 stuff).
Certainly there'll be other places it IS a real hurdle (the EU is the big elephant in that room) but if you've already GOT the system there's no "waiting for regulators" stopping you right now from making a bunch of RT revenue in the dozen or two states you can turn the system on right now while the rest catch their laws up.
And having it run safely in that bunch of US states is a pretty good way to signal to other places it's safe and they might wanna hurry with updating their guidelines.
Probably billions, tbh. Don't forget IoT.Yes. Almost certainly for Starlink. SpaceX needs to build millions of Starlink terminals.
I like the idea of 'you kids get off my island' much better than 'you kids get off my lawn.'
For Tesla to become the world’s largest company in the next few years, FSD is required.
But to drill down more specifically, what does the market need to see in order to start factoring FSD into TSLA's valuation?
IMHO, it's simply a clear and straight line to L4/5. When the market believes it is inevitable and only a function of time, you'll see the valuation increase. This next step change of the FSD beta is going to publicly show exactly how fast the system learns with 1,000 (or 2,000?) beta participants. I think folks are going to be able to extrapolate the rate of improvement to tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of vehicles, and they are going to realize that there aren't going to be many (any?) edge cases that simply will be unsolvable for Tesla given enough time. Right now most of the market is still focused on questions like "Who has the best approach for self-driving?" or "Is self-driving really solvable?"
Yes, it will still be much time before there's enough data to prove safety, regulators get on board, we work through all the political and philosophical BS that will undoubtedly come, and robotaxis take whatever form Tesla decides and become a revenue-generating reality. But once the market sees this as inevitable, the stock will [probably] start to reflect it. That could actually start as soon as the next FSD beta release if the improvement is profound. That may be what Elon is suggesting. It's also the kind of inevitability, that, if I were a CEO of a competing self-driving outfit, might cause me to step down. I'm not saying it will be, but the next release of FSD beta could be, publicly, game over.
I thought the company needs to submit a bunch data like intervention free miles to the authorities first? Isn't that what Waymo did?
According to Elon, Dojo isn't needed for L5.The completion of Dojo (Tesla's AI training supercomputer) should be a turning point in FSD progress, if not the market's reaction. Currently Tesla's FSD neural nets are getting pretty smart, but their rate of learning is limited by the speed of a staff of humans labeling camera data from the fleet. When Dojo takes over the labeling job, and sends the humans into "Operation Vacation," the rate of learning will shift from relatively slow to "exploding with unrelenting fury," in the words of futurist Ray Kurzweil.
I recall Elon said in an earnings call that Dojo should be completed this year. Maybe that time is near, or already arrived, enabling the general release of FSD Beta soon.
I think Tesla's Dojo is their AI division, a spin off from the FSD team. They have developed self supervised vision recognition algorithm (aka the holy grail) that will enable AI vision for general robotics and automation. This I believe will be put into their factory 3.0 model, and will also help other companies train for general AI vision applications.According to Elon, Dojo isn't needed for L5.
If Tesla keeps executing like this, we'll all be retired in a couple years and we can all lose track of days together....................(until we all get on each other nerves and then tell each other to get off each other's islands)
When Dojo takes over the labeling job, and sends the humans into "Operation Vacation," the rate of learning will shift from relatively slow to "exploding with unrelenting fury," in the words of futurist Ray Kurzweil.
Nope - three more sleeps!Is it Monday yet?
This isn't the correct interpretation of what Dojo will be used for, as far as Elon and Karpathy has explained.
For now, Dojo is simply a NN-optimized training cluster with a custom CPU and cooling design. Dojo would allow Tesla to create larger NN models since the model size is limited by how long it takes their cluster to train / process the data. After Tesla transitions to video labeling (which will still be done manually by humans), they'll need a lot more training flops.
Operation Vacation refers to automated data curation from the fleet. Humans will still need to label the data, but the fleet will help collect some of it.
Premarket buy via schwab put in Sunday night? I need to get in quick before stock price goes up by 2 full Gordons.Nope - three more sleeps!