Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Supplier output due to double this year. Maybe 50% of the increase will be 4680s. Plus a bit from Tesla. I think Berlin and Texas will be able to ramp the MY quite well. They have a million other S curves to ramp simultaneously - likelihood of the battery being the bottleneck in 2022 is low.

I interpreted the call as saying supplier extra output was not 4680. Also supplier output to be double next year, not neccessary double this year.
Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
Where would suppliers get the equipment?

And then we've already ordered most of the equipment for battery production in Berlin and then much of it for Austin as well. So we really don't flick the nitty-gritty elements. But overall, I think we still feel quite optimistic about this achieving volume production of the 4680 next year. What do you think?

4680 is still in ramp mode, and separate from suppliers:

Yeah. And basically, this is just a guess because we don't know for sure, but it appears as though we're about 12 -- probably not more than 18 months away from volume production of the 4680. Now at the same time, we are actually trying to have our cell supply of partners ramp up their supply as much as possible. So this is not something that is to the exclusion of suppliers.

Volume next year double this year (aligns with Berlin and Texas production)

Yeah, exactly. We do expect from suppliers willing to receive double the cell output next year versus this year.

 

[Phobi]

Stolen from Twitter...

View attachment 657384

And we keep being told regulatory credits are illegitimate income. Seems like 2021 will be another strong year.

Fiat Chrysler spent over $300 million on green credits in Europe last year — mostly from Tesla

“...adding that spending will be lower “but not significantly” this year.”

Yea safe bet

 

[dmvevguy]

I guess this year we will be trading sideways until TX and Berlin go live. Q4 will be super interesting!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's a link to "Tesla investor car crash thread" comment #63 about the Earnings Call question on dealing with media FUD and the Woodlands, TX accident:

• link to Youtube video by Rob Maurer at relevent timestamp
• transcript from Motley Fool (hand-edited vs raw closed captioning)
• quoted relevant section of transcript for crash investigation study
• LinkedIn to "unknown speaker" Lars Moravy - VP Vehicle Engineering

Please continue discussion there if you'd like.

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

The sweet satisfaction of knowing the other Auto manufacturers are basically buying Tesla's new Giga-factories.
Then the lovely irony of the useful idiot's in the CNBC world saying that (regulatory credits)is the ONLY reason Tesla is successful.

THAT is some sweet sweet cake.....I'll take some more of that please and thank you.

 

[thx1139]

Fiat Chrysler spent over $300 million on green credits in Europe last year — mostly from Tesla

“...adding that spending will be lower “but not significantly” this year.”

Yea safe bet

Should Tesla put banners on the Berlin and Austin factories saying "Construction funded by Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen" so naysayers understand what regulatory green credits are doing.

 

[heltok]

Imagine the Boston Dynamics robots with Tesla Vision. They could be taught to do just about anything without having to be specifically controlled.

I, for one, welcome our new...

I just worry it will end up like this:

 

[The Accountant]

did I hear the comment about 60% less parts on the Berlin Model Y vs. Fremont?

The comment was, "when you look at the other advances we're including in the Model Y at factories in Austin and Berlin, we've reduced the body part count by as much as 60%" The speaker made this comment after mentioning how complex the Model S was to build so I suspect the 60% reduction is in comparison the the Model S but hard to tell exactly what he meant.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Good eye. I'm so I damn sick of the FSD arguments, it didn't even cross my mind. Makes sense to change, but I hope they brainstorm a bit more on that weird name.

I don't see why anyone is upset about the FSD name. Haven't Tesla said FSD stands for Faulty Self Driving? Not sure anyone can say that overstates the abilities. Anyway. Problem solved.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Should Tesla put banners on the Berlin and Austin factories saying "Construction funded by Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen" so naysayers understand what regulatory green credits are doing.

Lol, to be more precise, the "Funded by Volkswagen" banner should go up at Giga Shanghai Phase 3 , a.k.a. the "Model 2 factory".

Sounds like payments for VWs emissions credits earned by Tesla in China are already hitting the books in Q1..

Cheers!

 

[juanmedina]

PT raises everywhere

 

[elasalle]

Just for fun Master of Coin should do a 1 time dividend with the 101 M crypto gains

 

[Mengy]

I think its important to remember this will very likely be the worst quarter of 2021. Tesla's best and most profitable quarter ever will be the worst one this year.

I can't wait to see how we sit by the end of 2021!

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes. I am now thinking I might get my Plaid+ next year...

I expect mid-2022 for mine. Frankly I expect Berlin Y, Austin Y as well as Cybertruck and Semi will be higher priority than will be either Plaid+ or Roadster. If production hiccups suddenly cease and rampup suddenly improves it could be sooner. I will not count on that.

Panasonic was quoted a couple of weeks ago by Bloomberg as saying there were 4680 thermal stability and production contamination problems among other things.

Panasonic Bets on Tesla ‘Beer Can’ Battery to Unlock $25,000 EVs

Panasonic Corp. is betting that close to a century of experience making car batteries has prepared it to manufacture a difficult-to-produce next-generation battery championed by Tesla Inc. as the key to unlocking cheaper and more ubiquitous electric vehicles.

www.bloomberg.com

Of course LG Chem is excited to produce them, probably in the US. and/or Europe, but that may be 2023:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-lg-evs-exclusive/exclusive-lg-hopes-to-make-new-battery-cells-for-tesla-in-2023-in-u-s-or-europe-sources-idUSKBN2B12HY.

Therefore it seems obvious that the first huge impediment to the next huge growth wave is perfecting 4680's. There seems to be little serious clarification.

In the meantime refreshed Models S and X will proceed with existing high quality battery tech.

Frankly I see 4680's as possibly the greatest challenge to Tesla at the moment, certainly greater than autopilot woes and even customer service.

This will work itself out, but it is all about unprecedented production quality standards and scale.

 

[Singuy]

PT raises everywhere

The only pt raise I care about is from Gordo

 

[mongo]

I expect mid-2022 for mine. Frankly I expect Berlin Y, Austin Y as well as Cybertruck and Semi will be higher priority than will be either Plaid+ or Roadster. If production hiccups suddenly cease and rampup suddenly improves it could be sooner. I will not count on that.

Panasonic was quoted a couple of weeks ago by Bloomberg as saying there were 4680 thermal stability and production contamination problems among other things.

Panasonic Bets on Tesla ‘Beer Can’ Battery to Unlock $25,000 EVs

Panasonic Corp. is betting that close to a century of experience making car batteries has prepared it to manufacture a difficult-to-produce next-generation battery championed by Tesla Inc. as the key to unlocking cheaper and more ubiquitous electric vehicles.

www.bloomberg.com

Of course LG Chem is excited to produce them, probably in the US. and/or Europe, but that may be 2023:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-lg-evs-exclusive/exclusive-lg-hopes-to-make-new-battery-cells-for-tesla-in-2023-in-u-s-or-europe-sources-idUSKBN2B12HY.

Therefore it seems obvious that the first huge impediment to the next huge growth wave is perfecting 4680's. There seems to be little serious clarification.

In the meantime refreshed Models S and X will proceed with existing high quality battery tech.

Frankly I see 4680's as possibly the greatest challenge to Tesla at the moment, certainly greater than autopilot woes and even customer service.

This will work itself out, but it is all about unprecedented production quality standards and scale.

The Panasonic article sounds like classical single tab cells in a 4680 form factor, or the writer is confused:

The larger capacity, however, is also what makes the cells more difficult to produce. They are prone to overheating because it’s difficult to disperse heat from their center.

4680 have definite advantages, but 2170s are allowing profitable 3 and Ys today. While less optimal, Tesla can double vehicle output with increased supply of the current cells.

 

[Nocturnal]

Thanks to a timely rollover from my Roth 401k to my Roth IRA I have a chunk of cash to spend. I wonder what I should buy...

Imagine thinking the media has a conscience.

I'm trying to be a "glass has 1 millimeter of water" kind of guy.

Dang, so Elon admits to owning Bitcoin?

Previously he had hinted that he owned Doge but this is the first implication that he holds BTC himself.

 

[RobPet]

Just a titbit, funny how in this table (and a few other paragraph titles) Tesla changed the name from 'Fremont' to 'California'. Used to be Fremont everywhere. Makes sense.

Q4 '20:

Q1 '21:

 

[Subhuman]

Stolen from Twitter...

View attachment 657384

And we keep being told regulatory credits are illegitimate income. Seems like 2021 will be another strong year.

Right! Like it’s such a shock that tesla sold record credits with record deliveries. There is no reason that they should be viewed as a bad thing. The credits are doing exactly what they were designed to do, accelerate the transition to electric vehicles.

 

[22522]

The Panasonic article sounds like classical single tab cells in a 4680 form factor, or the writer is confused:

4680 have definite advantages, but 2170s are allowing profitable 3 and Ys today. While less optimal, Tesla can double vehicle output with increased supply of the current cells.

My thoughts almost exactly. The 4680 is not needed for Tesla dominance. Helpful, but not needed.