Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Elon seems to be running drugs:

1. 8 hrs ago - San Jose to Hawthorne
2. 5 hrs ago - Hawthorne to San Jose
3. 2 hrs ago - San Jose to ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397783584753205249

I hope he is not aboard.

 

[printf42]

Elon seems to be running drugs:

1. 8 hrs ago - San Jose to Hawthorne
2. 5 hrs ago - Hawthorne to San Jose
3. 2 hrs ago - San Jose to ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397783584753205249

I hope he is not aboard.

He’s running Tesla chips, which is more profitable, and don’t worry those all have proper documents.

 

[JustMe]

On this subject, where do you get your information from? I'm looking for a concise distillation of the progress of Australia's energy system that I can point naysayers to, but find it hard to locate anything useful and objective. My Google-fu is weak on this one....

This is a good green energy blog based in Australia. May be useful to you

Homepage - One Step Off The Grid

More Podcasts

onestepoffthegrid.com.au

 

[lklundin]

Already seeing some FUD from Bloomberg saying the bill requires EVs be union made. I don't think that's correct. The full text language is available from the Finance Committee itself:

Wyden, Colleagues Introduce Legislation to Overhaul Energy Tax Code, Create Jobs, Combat Climate Crisis | The United States Senate Committee on Finance

Wyden, Colleagues Introduce Legislation to Overhaul Energy Tax Code, Create Jobs, Combat Climate Crisis

www.finance.senate.gov

It never once uses the word "union." In fact I can't find any labor requirements for the EV tax credit, but this kind of text is used throughout for fair labor standards:

That's actually a pity.

Since Tesla's employees (via the stock compensation program) have ownership of their own factory I would have loved them and Tesla to form - as a sign of them being true Americans - the union SAM, the Socialist Auto Makers.

LOL

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I suspect the Plaid+ will have some additional options beyond the 4680 structural packs. I am hoping for increased color choices and other high-end options.

Tesla really needs to get on with this. The idea that there are so few color options is mad on cars at this price level, or frankly any car. We can literally land rockets on autonomous drones but not support any conceivable color of car? Real car-lovers forget that there are people out there who will buy a nissan leaf because they prefer their red to teslas red. Some people can only describe their car by the color. I know people who if pressed, don't even know the make of their car, but will say 'its a nice silver one'.
It seems like its an easy win in terms of making them more attractive to a wider, less geeky audience, especially as the sale price comes down to attract the more casual EV buyer.

 

[JustMe]

Tesla really needs to get on with this. The idea that there are so few color options is mad on cars at this price level, or frankly any car. We can literally land rockets on autonomous drones but not support any conceivable color of car? Real car-lovers forget that there are people out there who will buy a nissan leaf because they prefer their red to teslas red. Some people can only describe their car by the color. I know people who if pressed, don't even know the make of their car, but will say 'its a nice silver one'.
It seems like its an easy win in terms of making them more attractive to a wider, less geeky audience, especially as the sale price comes down to attract the more casual EV buyer.

Definitely agree...

Elon Musk has said Giga Berlin will have the world’s most advanced auto paint facility. Hopefully that means more color options

Tesla Giga Berlin employee hints at new colors from world-class paint facility

Tesla Giga Berlin is the home of a new, world-class paint facility, and an employee showed what new colors could be coming to the automaker’s lineup of all-electric vehicles. Senior Recruiter for Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin Lydia van de Laar shared a photo of what appears to be several die-cast...

www.teslarati.com

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla could be trying to convert Plaid+ to Plaid so they can book the sale now and hope people will upgrade when the Plaid+ comes out, so they can sell two cars in 12-18 months instead of one. Plus they can make money on any potential Plaid trade ins.

Up selling the Plaid now also supports the idea that FSD subscription is about to drop which will dampen FSD revenue initially.

Also, of all the auto manufacturer, Tesla really needs chips to support their exploding demand.

I would love to see some way of allowing regulatory credits to be paid in chips.

 

[soundart2]

Up selling the Plaid now also supports the idea that FSD subscription is about to drop which will dampen FSD revenue initially.

Also, of all the auto manufacturer, Tesla really needs chips to support their exploding demand.

I would love to see some way of allowing regulatory credits to be paid in chips.

Tesla could be trying to convert Plaid+ to Plaid so they can book the sale now and hope people will upgrade when the Plaid+ comes out, so they can sell two cars in 12-18 months instead of one. Plus they can make money on any potential Plaid trade ins.

I read a book by a journalist who embedded with gangs/drug dealers (think it was called Gang Leader for a Day). One of their “business philosophies” as I recall was: if someone offers you a $100 now, or $200 next week, you always take the sale/$100 now. Who knows where they will be in a week.

While Tesla reservation holders are presumably more reliable than junkies (though just as addicted!), it may simply be that it makes more business sense for Tesla to get the sale now, if they can. Waiting a year, gives a potential customer 12 more months to opt out — they could die, get hit with financial hardship, divorce, decide to try an electric Porsche, be talked out of it, or simply change their mind. Whatever. Granted, most who make the Plaid+ reservation are probably Tesla diehards, but you never know - still a lot of variables. Prob better to just book a sale now, if they can. Even if the buyer doesn’t upgrade later.

 

[15Peter20]

Tesla really needs to get on with this. The idea that there are so few color options is mad on cars at this price level, or frankly any car. We can literally land rockets on autonomous drones but not support any conceivable color of car? Real car-lovers forget that there are people out there who will buy a nissan leaf because they prefer their red to teslas red. Some people can only describe their car by the color. I know people who if pressed, don't even know the make of their car, but will say 'its a nice silver one'.
It seems like its an easy win in terms of making them more attractive to a wider, less geeky audience, especially as the sale price comes down to attract the more casual EV buyer.

They are limited by the lack of local factories: cars are built to specs that are projected to sell well, then shipped and, often, allocated en-route.

The Japanese used to offer limited specs/fully loaded cars in the 80s and 90s for the same reasons.

I guess a downside to having lots of specs is that you can end up being upsold in the way that the Germans tend to, meaning the list price is significantly less than what you can expect to actually pay.

 

[22522]

Tesla really needs to get on with this. The idea that there are so few color options is mad on cars at this price level, or frankly any car. We can literally land rockets on autonomous drones but not support any conceivable color of car? Real car-lovers forget that there are people out there who will buy a nissan leaf because they prefer their red to teslas red. Some people can only describe their car by the color. I know people who if pressed, don't even know the make of their car, but will say 'its a nice silver one'.
It seems like its an easy win in terms of making them more attractive to a wider, less geeky audience, especially as the sale price comes down to attract the more casual EV buyer.

Tesla does not always have the best bedside manner. Consider as if a Doctor sorting patients for good yelp reviews.

Limited colors sets the table by selecting out customers that are too high maintenance for the Tesla sales model, which is definitely lower touch than conventional dealers - and also lower cost.

As far as Tesla stock price, sorting the customers into high and low maintenance groups and assigning all the high maintenance customers to your competitors allows you to deliver at a fundamentally lower cost. It is not quite like shooting your competitors in the leg, but it is sort of like that.

 

[RobStark]

I read a book by a journalist who embedded with gangs/drug dealers (think it was called Gang Leader for a Day). One of their “business philosophies” as I recall was: if someone offers you a $100 now, or $200 next week, you always take the sale/$100 now. Who knows where they will be in a week.

What if you have more buyers at $100 than crack vials today?

Do you take a crack vial that is already sold at $100 to sell to a buyer that wants delivery next week at $200 and sell it to him for $100 today?

 

[RobStark]

Limited colors sets the table by selecting out customers that are too high maintenance for the Tesla sales model, which is definitely lower touch than conventional dealers - and also lower cost.

Maybe at delivery Tesla should make customers wait 12 hrs in the lounge area.

If they don't leave in frustration that selects out customers that will be angry,ready to sue, leave horrible reviews on utube with Tesla customer service and communications.

Additionally, when signing paperwork Tesla salespeople should b!tch$lap customers to further weed out high maintenance customers.

Just keep rich masochistic customers.

 

[Christine69420]

What if you have more buyers at $100 than crack vials today?

Are you saying that is not always the case for crack vials?

So Teslas are selling better than crack cocain?

 

[RobStark]

Are you saying that is not always the case for crack vials?

So Teslas are selling better than crack cocain?

If you have to wait 3 weeks to 1 year for a Tesla than means demand exceeds supply.

If I can drive to a socio-economically disadvantaged area right this second and buy enough crack vials for me and a dozen friends that means demand does not exceed supply.

That can be characterized as Tesla sells better than crack cocaine.

 

[Skryll]

If you have to wait 3 weeks to 1 year for a Tesla than means demand exceeds supply.

If I can drive to a socio-economically disadvantaged area right this second and buy enough crack vials for me and a dozen friends that means demand does not exceed supply.

That can be characterized as Tesla sells better than crack cocaine.

But thankfully there is

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397634656514711553

turo

 

[nativewolf]

Definitely agree...

Elon Musk has said Giga Berlin will have the world’s most advanced auto paint facility. Hopefully that means more color options

Tesla Giga Berlin employee hints at new colors from world-class paint facility

Tesla Giga Berlin is the home of a new, world-class paint facility, and an employee showed what new colors could be coming to the automaker’s lineup of all-electric vehicles. Senior Recruiter for Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin Lydia van de Laar shared a photo of what appears to be several die-cast...

www.teslarati.com

any color you like...as long as it is black

 

[nativewolf]

Ok so that was harder to find that it should have been

https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clean_Energy_for_America_Act_Chairmans_Modified_Mark.pdf

THAT appears to be the markup as amended.

Most relevant bits




So Tesla'd still get the REST of the available credit, just not that bit.


(some folks have previously suggested such a clause is unconstitutional, but I can't find any real legal basis for this claim- tax code especially treats folks unequally all the damn time specifically in the name of public policy preferences. Parents are taxed differently from non-parents. Married people are taxed differently from single people. Homeowners are taxed differently from renters. For that matter, EV buyers are being taxed differently from ICE buyers. I expect any lawsuit over this would lose pretty quickly as it'd require passing a very low level of judicial scrutiny to be permissable-- so I don't know that this bit will survive to make it into the infrastructure bill that'll eventually get passed 50-50, but there's no legal basis to toss it)


And



Tesla'd get the final assembly in US credit of course, but they're obviously trying to bump the handout to those who waiting longer to bother.... (and it'd go to any foreign car company with assembly in the US too of course)

BTW in case anyone is curious how much this could be gamed based on what "final assembly" means- like could Ford build everything in Mexico and just put the tires on in the US?





And finally



Fine I guess?

I'd have put a much more wonkish limit in there- like "the limit each year shall be set to the average new car price last year plus 50%" or something- but really any # they pick is gonna be semi-arbitrary and prompt arguments over what a "rich person" car is or isn't so whatever?


EDIT- In re-reading this... the limit is based on the MSRP.

Not the ACTUAL PRICE OF THE CAR.

So that's another handout to legacy auto.

MSRP is $80,000 but there's $10,000 of dealer markup? Sure, you still get the credit!

So yeah that's dumb. My idea is better. And nerdier.



Second Edit- Can't easily find how they define MSRP for vehicles, but I wonder if legacy could game this even more?

Move a bunch of stuff out of the MSRP and make them dealer-installed after-purchase options. Properly designed you could even move stuff like second motors and other relatively high priced stuff into this category.

It'd also keep the service centers who no longer need to do nearly as many service and repair jobs busy.

Tesla just has to create a MSRP. S Plaid for 80....battery extra of course

 

[15Peter20]

Maybe at delivery Tesla should make customers wait 12 hrs in the lounge area.

If they don't leave in frustration that selects out customers that will be angry,ready to sue, leave horrible reviews on utube with Tesla customer service and communications.

Additionally, when signing paperwork Tesla salespeople should b!tch$lap customers to further weed out high maintenance customers.

Just keep rich masochistic customers.

In the virtual sense, they certainly do this.

 

[lascavarian]

I am very optimistic about how things are coming together at the end of Q2. Now is time to have the conversation about radar and vision. Now is the time to introduce subscription models for FSD. Now is the time to review delivery plans for the rest of the year and how to optimize around chip constraints. Plus more.

Now, with the incentives becoming more firm before us. This is the time to air out issues of potential confusion and clear the deck for the rest of the year. As the saying goes, fasten your seat belts.

 

[juanmedina]

Max pain is now $610