Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

I did read the article i just disagree with it ... I stick with my original point banks/ credit agencies are one of the worst types of stock investment ... they can be wiped out in black swan event

Literally any company can be wiped out in a black swan event.

That's kind of the point of them.

and don't have the upside potential of growth companies

Ford credit consistently delivers several billion in EBIT each year. They're not intended to be a "growth" thing, but a consistent revenue thing.

You're moving goalposts now from "they have tons of bad debt" (which they factually do not and the link you claim you read explains in some detail) to "The arm with the highly rated, almost entirely secured, debt, isn't growing fast enough to be a great investment"

Which is an entirely different (and continuing to miss the point) argument.

The original topic was if Fords current debt was a problem. It's objectively not if you understand what most of that debt is.

Ford has a number of OTHER serious issues going forward- but current debt isn't one of them.

... see GE Capital, GMAC , etc...

Uh... what?

GMAC provided consistent profits to GM for almost 90 years before they sold a majority stake in it in 2006 because the rest of GM needed cash and GMAC was arguably the most valuable thing they had to sell and the rest of GMs NON finance debt was dragging down the PROFITABLE FINANCE PART.

Ford- as pointed out- has more cash than debt in the non-finance part of the business, so this isn't an issue for them, and the finance part for them, like with GM, consistently brings in significant income too.

You seem to still not understand the accounting going on and why there's such a thing as "bad" debt and "good" debt.

if Tesla starts to become a bank/credit agency of any scale i will have to re-evaluate my investment ... innovation will suffer

Tesla already started an insurance line of business- which has a lot of similarities to a loan/finance company.

And they're innovating in that space.

Did you rethink your investment when they did that?

Why do you doubt they'd be able to do the same in the financing space?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Have to remember the Y production rate is ramping up quickly. So without closing for any time we should have seen considerably more Y's produced in April then we did in March.

Lol, ramping at +100% month-over-month? They're fast, but not THAT fast!

The limiting factor on production is ALWAYS logistics, specifically meaning the supply of pre-ordered parts from literally 100's of external suppliers. Tesla can not increase this supply on a whim, or in big, unplanned jumps (because PHYSICS).

Giga Shanghai produced almost exactly the same number of Models Y per day in April as they did in March. This is the sensible result given a pre-ordered supply of external parts.

The only reasonable way Tesla had a 2weak shdn AND still produced the same number of Models Y is if they went to double shifts for the other 2wks of Apr. Possible, but we have no evidence of that either.

Its the same way we have no evidence of a 2weak shtdn. What's more reasonable? Information leaks after the fact about a supposed shdn, but DOES NOT about double shifts? Or that it was production as planned the whole time?

The only unreasonable position is that April had lower prod. (as the April Fool's FUD campaign wanted investors to believe). Shipments to S. Korea explains the discrepency completely. In fact, we learned today that April 2021 MiC Model Y production was normal.

We rightfully should discount post-hoc justifcations of media FUD via unsubstantiated, single-sourced, and RETROACTIVE stories (which were clearly aimed at shoring up a disintegrating FUD narrative). It's what long-term investors do.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

More Tesla structural bty pack goodness released in new Tesla Patent:

"A recently published patent for Tesla’s structural battery pack reveals that the EV maker did not only look at cost reduction and range improvements when it was developing its next-generation batteries. Tesla also looked at how the structural battery packs could help maintain–if not improve–its vehicles’ safety. This was hinted at in the patent’s detailed description, which reveals that the bottom layer of the structural battery would be created from a strong, stiff material that is also capable of deforming in the event of a crash."​

Tesla structural battery pack patent hints at clever contingencies for crashes, cell failures

Tesla’s next generation of vehicles like the Cybertruck and the Made-in-Texas Model Y will likely be built with a structural battery pack. Together with the company’s 4680 cells and megacasted parts, Tesla’s integrated battery system is expected to improve its vehicles’ mass and range...

www.teslarati.com

Cheers!

 

[Pezpunk]

looks like wall street likes the direction things are headed with the EV incentives bills. the latest one has $7500 for EVs, plus $2500 for American made and plus another $2500 for union made. Not sure if "American made" includes Mexican Ford Mach-E's. Either way, if Tesla gets $10k incentive and Ford gets $12.5k, it's not going to be enough to make a difference to too many people -- both vehicles will be insanely cheap.

(also it's extremely unlikely the union stipulation survives)

 

[bpjod]

Only if all range is electric. No ICE "range extender" or other funny stuff.

Of course that’s what I meant to say, thanks for clarifying.
(Says the guy who also drives a 2012 Volt when his wife manages to snag the Model 3 first…)

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 666691

$7,500 tax credit (proposal would eliminate existing cap)
+$2,500 for vehicles assembled in U.S.
++$2,500 if production workers are members of or represented by a labor union

What choice does Tesla have than to flood the market with EV's under 80K so that in 3 years 50% of passenger car sales are EV's

Time for another US based GF for the 25K

 

[Artful Dodger]

Right on cue...down she goes

Yeah, it's just tubthumping.

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

looks like wall street likes the direction things are headed with the EV incentives bills. the latest one has $7500 for EVs, plus $2500 for American made and plus another $2500 for union made. Not sure if "American made" includes Mexican Ford Mach-E's. Either way, if Tesla gets $10k incentive and Ford gets $12.5k, it's not going to be enough to make a difference to too many people -- both vehicles will be insanely cheap.

If Mexico made Mach-E qualifies, then will a Tesla union in Mexico(or some other country) also qualify

 

[bpjod]

So the US proposal for EV rebates includes a hard cap at $80,000 MSRP? Wish there was a manufacturer who could restrict the features of their vehicles to meet a certain price point (MSRP), then later unlock those features by selling an OTA update. You know, features such as acceleration, range, seat and steering wheel warmers, etc.

I’d probably both invest in and buy a car from a company like that.

 

[Todd Burch]

OK, so do we think a big player is slowly accumulating, tempering the big buys so as to not spike the price too much? Seeing these big spikes for a few days now.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397921365567557637

 

[Knightshade]

Not sure if "American made" includes Mexican Ford Mach-E's.

It doesn't- final assembly must be in the United States


As to Mr Gary Blacks remarks... it has also never happened that IRS code favored buying an EV over and ICE vehicle.

Until it happened.

 

[Zero CO2]

Literally any company can be wiped out in a black swan event.

That's kind of the point of them.




Ford credit consistently delivers several billion in EBIT each year. They're not intended to be a "growth" thing, but a consistent revenue thing.

You're moving goalposts now from "they have tons of bad debt" (which they factually do not and the link you claim you read explains in some detail) to "The arm with the highly rated, almost entirely secured, debt, isn't growing fast enough to be a great investment"

Which is an entirely different (and continuing to miss the point) argument.

The original topic was if Fords current debt was a problem. It's objectively not if you understand what most of that debt is.

Ford has a number of OTHER serious issues going forward- but current debt isn't one of them.




Uh... what?

GMAC provided consistent profits to GM for almost 90 years before they sold a majority stake in it in 2006 because the rest of GM needed cash and GMAC was arguably the most valuable thing they had to sell and the rest of GMs NON finance debt was dragging down the PROFITABLE FINANCE PART.

Ford- as pointed out- has more cash than debt in the non-finance part of the business, so this isn't an issue for them, and the finance part for them, like with GM, consistently brings in significant income too.

You seem to still not understand the accounting going on and why there's such a thing as "bad" debt and "good" debt.







Tesla already started an insurance line of business- which has a lot of similarities to a loan/finance company.

And they're innovating in that space.

Did you rethink your investment when they did that?

Why do you doubt they'd be able to do the same in the financing space?

Tesla Insurance does not now and likely never will move the needle in any significant way for TSLA... it is a nice to have for customers ... and represents a distraction from the real goals of AI and energy .... in fact the state by state effort would be better spent on FSD and autonomy .....
we can stop this now and agree to disagree...

and of course any company can be wiped in BS event but likelihood of financial firm being wiped out is much greater ...

 

[dhanson865]

What’s this BS about unions?

couldnt tesla just have one plant comprise of “anti union, union.” Or the “not a union, union”?

The sole purpose is to collectively decide what sodas the snack machine is filled with?

This union pandering is disgusting. Might as well add provisions like credit excludes any auto mfg that start with a T and ends in “esla”.

It'd be a net gain for Tesla so they won't lobby against it

• $0 now for Tesla
• $7500 now for the one or two companies still under 200,000
• net difference $7500

changes to

• $10,000 for Tesla
• $12,500 for GM and Ford
• net difference $2500

that improves the balance for tesla by $5,000 per car.

Add on top, that most people don't have a $12,500 tax liability and for those lower income buyers it's a wash if you can only do $8,402 because your income isn't high enough it'll be $8,402 for both Tesla and non Tesla.

• $8,402 for Tesla
• $8,402 for GM and Ford
• net difference $0

It'd be a very small group of wealthy people buying a GM or Ford EV and getting that last wedge of tax credit.

 

[thx1139]

Lol, ramping at +100% month-over-month? They're fast, but not THAT fast!

The limiting factor on production is ALWAYS logistics, specifically meaning the supply of pre-ordered parts from literally 100's of external suppliers. Tesla can not increase this supply on a whim, or in big, unplanned jumps (because PHYSICS).

Giga Shanghai produced almost exactly the same number of Models Y per day in April as they did in March. This is the sensible result given a pre-ordered supply of external parts.

The only reasonable way Tesla had a 2weak shdn AND still produced the same number of Models Y is if they went to double shifts for the other 2wks of Apr. Possible, but we have no evidence of that either.

Its the same way we have no evidence of a 2weak shtdn. What's more reasonable? Information leaks after the fact about a supposed shdn, but DOES NOT about double shifts? Or that it was production as planned the whole time?

The only unreasonable position is that April had lower prod. (as the April Fool's FUD campaign wanted investors to believe). Shipments to S. Korea explains the discrepency completely.

We rightfully should discount post-hoc justifcations of media FUD via unsubstantiated, single-sourced, and RETROACTIVE stories (which were clearly aimed at shoring up a disintegrating FUD narrative). It's what long-term investors do.

Cheers!

Who said 100%?

 

[HG Wells]

looks like wall street likes the direction things are headed with the EV incentives bills. the latest one has $7500 for EVs, plus $2500 for American made and plus another $2500 for union made. Not sure if "American made" includes Mexican Ford Mach-E's. Either way, if Tesla gets $10k incentive and Ford gets $12.5k, it's not going to be enough to make a difference to too many people -- both vehicles will be insanely cheap.

(also it's extremely unlikely the union stipulation survives)

Wait, are you saying Mexico is not part of America ?
Wouldn't they say United States if they meant just the US ?

 

[Prunesquallor]

The Oz 'Big Battery' saves the day one more time:

"As noted in a Renew Economy report, the Tesla Powerpack farm responded instantaneously as the frequency in the grid plunged to a low of 49.6Hz, before jumping to 50.1Hz as load was lost. The battery accomplished this in but two seconds. But even more impressively, the two inverters of the Hornsdale Power Reserve that had been enabled with “synthetic inertia” features responded even more quickly, reaching peak output in about one-third of a second before the rest of the battery. "​

Tesla Powerpack battery steps in after coal plant explodes in Australia

On Tuesday, an explosion at the Callide Power Station, a coal-fired power plant in central Queensland, Australia, resulted in mass power outages from the New South Wales (NSW) border to Cairns. More than 470,000 customers were affected, particularly as the explosion caused a cascading impact on...

www.teslarati.com

"Synthetic Inertial" FTW.

Cheers!

I came back from a week on a dive boat with a Honduran cook with lots of synthetic inertia.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who said 100%?

Math. 8300 in 2 wks in Apr vs 8800 in 4 wks in Mar

If you allow for Mar being 1 day longer, then that works out to within 0.5 days of prod dec. in Apr.

That's a 100% higher daily production rate in Apr vs Mar if you buy the shtdn FUD.

I don't.

 

[EVWatcher]

Tesla Insurance does not now and likely never will move the needle in any significant way for TSLA... it is a nice to have for customers ... and represents a distraction from the real goals of AI and energy .... in fact the state by state effort would be better spent on FSD and autonomy .....
we can stop this now and agree to disagree...

and of course any company can be wiped in BS event but likelihood of financial firm being wiped out is much greater ...

Insurance per tesla costs me about as much as a FSD subscription is assumed to cost. Saying insurance doesn't and will never do much for tesla is like saying FSD subscription wont either.

 

[jerry33]

Someone should inform Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas that there is a factory currently under construction in his state that could supply some jobs ...

In support of his point............the Paradigm Shift to renewables is estimated to eliminate approximately 5,000,000 existing fossil fuel-associated jobs

And in support of his ignorance........the Paradigm Shift to renewables is estimated to create 20,000,000 new jobs

Many of these 15,000,000 additional jobs most certainly will be in Texas given its solar and wind potential, it huge cities, and of course its total train wreck of an energy grid that could only benefit from being rapidly converted to a distributed grid. Perhaps Mr. Cornyn should consider a long vacation - one where he tours the successful transition underway in South Australia from a slow, lumbering fossil fuel powered grid delivering ungodly expensive energy to exhausted residents, to a very reliable, nimble, and extremely profitable renewable-based distributed grid with massive battery storage systems that have solved all the problems of the Texas grid and more.

You should see the other things he supports. Makes Gordy look like a saint.