Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

This sort of defense is just grasping at straws. The Information defines the metric they are reporting on in the article as new orders less cancellations. If it's accurate or not is obviously up for debate but this nonsense doesn't do anything to help TSLA bulls look reasonable.

Not really....in fact it's probably the most logical explanation "IF" this source is correct.

Because the other explanation, as a I pointed out before, would be that Tesla's order rate was only 18k a month for the 3/Y for most of this year. And if that was the case.......then they would have completely run out of demand by mid March based on their production rates from Jan to now.

 

[Tslynk67]

I wonder where all these cars sold in Korea were built?

Tesla Model Y Became the Best-Selling Foreign Car in South Korea in May

The recently launched sales of the Tesla Model Y in South Korea were a big surprise. The electric compact SUV became the best-selling foreign car in the country in May, surpassing the sales of the Mercedes-Benz E-Class, which held that spot throughout 2021.

www.tesmanian.com

You see them popping up in Norway too now: Tesla Registration Stats

 

[Cherry Wine]

JPR on Twitter believes that "net orders" translates to orders in excess of supply. I think that's likely.

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Unless Tesla has a weird way of defining "net orders," I don't believe this is accurate. Net orders typically refers to gross orders minus cancellations.

 

[Big Time]

Curt and I are right, everyone else is wrong
End of story.

 

[Nocturnal]

This sort of defense is just grasping at straws. The Information defines the metric they are reporting on in the article as new orders less cancellations. If it's accurate or not is obviously up for debate but this nonsense doesn't do anything to help TSLA bulls look reasonable.

I don't think that's very different than what he is saying. New orders doesn't equal deliveries, or production etc.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Not really....in fact it's probably the most logical explanation "IF" this source is correct.

Because the other explanation, as a I pointed out before, would be that Tesla's order rate was only 18k a month for the 3/Y for most of this year. And if that was the case.......then they would have completely run out of demand by mid March based on their production rates from Jan to now.

The article said 21k for March, so not really... That made up metric that no one has ever used would be at a low at the end of a quarter based on Tesla's delivery flow. Net new orders is a metric Tesla has actually mentioned before and it means exactly what The Information defined it as. Again, not saying the number is right but this take is dumb.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed regarding Tesla but maybe other companies might be further along. (Optimistic view, I know)

Am holding and could have bought more tsla if not for enjoying wine.

You nailed it. I don't have any options, nor am I looking to sell. Simply have a strong dislike for dishonesty.

Oh, well I’ve been betting since the start that Tesla wouldn’t have any company. And now I don’t want them to because that’s how I roll when an opportunity to do what’s right and proper is ignored for the sake of money. Die every other ICE OEM and make it horribly painful with much balls of inferno.

You just keep enjoying that wine. No sense having gobs of money and not enjoy the simple pleasures of everyday life like a box of wine.

 

[Krugerrand]

True, but also imagine that I am

a) sarcastic
b) very good with numbers
c) a dumb jock

So you don't know what you're going to get.

d) a daddy fail

 

[The Accountant]

Using a claim about Backlog is very coy. Backlog is never reported...never..ever. So when you make a claim that backlog is up or down, it can never be proven true nor false. All it can do is spread Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The article said 21k for March, so not really... That made up metric that no one has ever used would be at a low at the end of a quarter based on Tesla's delivery flow. Net new orders is a metric Tesla has actually mentioned before and it means exactly what The Information defined it as. Again, not saying the number is right but this take is dumb.

March 21k net orders doesn’t change what I said since deliveries in March in China greatly exceeded that number.

JPR might not be correct in his take but that just simply means that net order is just made up. Also....suddenly there’s a source that comes out of nowhere that now has net order information for the entire year and didn’t say one word up until now? Right.......

 

[Cherry Wine]

I will say this: delivery times on tesla.cn for Model 3 / Model Y across all available trims is currently listed at 1-3 weeks. The US varies by model, with the shortest delivery timeframe being 2-9 weeks (Performance Y). Model Y LR is 9-13 weeks. Model 3 SR+ is 9-12 weeks; Model 3 LR is 2-11 weeks; Model 3P is 2-11 weeks.

 

[bpjod]

I'm long. No options here. Just keep accumulating more shares when I've got cash on hand and the share price dips. I believe in the mission and Tesla is - what's the new phrase for 'firing on all cylinders'? I should just be chill.

However, I'm competitive and have a strong sense of justice. It really *irks* me to see the *cheaters* get away with their *stuff* and win the battle, even though I know we'll eventually win the war.

*xxx* - feel free to substitute the proper NSFW phrase of your choice here

 

[Duffer]

Apparently, headlines are like fashion, what is old is new again. So TMC, what other headlines do you think will be dusted off prior to next week's Model "S" delivery day?
a. Car crash with "autopilot" as part of the headline.
b. Safety concerns at Fremont.
c. Car fire. (GM might cringe at this one)
d. Anything that has Tesla/Musk and investigation as part of the headline.
e. Any of the other FUD headlines since 2012.

 

[mongo]

I will say this: delivery times on tesla.cn for Model 3 / Model Y across all available trims is currently listed at 1-3 weeks. The US varies by model, with the shortest delivery timeframe being 2-9 weeks (Performance Y). Model Y LR is 9-13 weeks. Model 3 SR+ is 9-12 weeks; Model 3 LR is 2-11 weeks; Model 3P is 2-11 weeks.

Was just writing that same thing (well at least the China side of it).
Positive interpretation: Shanghai is better set up to mix build types and can always produce local vehicles versus Fremont which batches domestic and export.

 

[juanmedina]

Diamond hands:

My poor options

 

[Krugerrand]

You say that now, but watch multiple instances of FUD compound and suddenly a stop loss and someone gets the margin call. That’s why we are here in the first place, from the AP crash in Texas compounding with other events.

Hello! Circa 2012 here. Been there, done that. Blood pressure as flat as a pancake.

I’ve lived through the first fire, the first not-a-recall, the first journalistic ‘my Tesla needed to be flatbedded because I drove it around a parking lot until it died’, the first production hell, the first tweet, the first recession is coming, etc., etc...

This right now is NOTHING. I scoff at the attempt to create panic.

China peeps don’t want to buy and own the best cars in the world, pfft. Somebody else will buy them. Go ahead China, buy those electric death boxes if you’re so gullible to believe some random woman being an embarrassment to herself and her family. And the Chinese government, go ahead and be all big and bad butted. Two new factories coming online this year. Yours is about to get less and less important by the day if you want to play hardball.

Big Time, put your big boy short shorts on and settle down before you have an aneurism. It’s all good.

 

[StealthP3D]

That is truly funny. Who do you think paid for the WSJ hit piece on a 2-yr old SEC letter? Longs?

I've noticed a lot of the negative Tesla hit pieces have been coming from the Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, Barron's and Marketwatch. It just so happens all are owned by Rupert Murdock, with a net worth of 22.7 billion. His media empire also includes Dow Jones and Company and Fox. He also has close business ties with CNBC. Lessor known is that this media empire had it's beginnings in 1922 with the desire to spread propaganda in Australia for business purposes. You can read more about the sordid tale of the news empire founded on misinformation here:

The secret history of News Corp: a media empire built on spreading propaganda

New research reveals how News Limited was secretly established in the early 1900s by a mining company for the express purpose of disseminating ‘propaganda’.

theconversation.com

Murdoch also has considerable fossil fuel holdings so I'm not so sure we even need to look to short-sellers to explain the recent FUD emanating from his empire built on lies. For all we know, he might have a large short position himself!

 

[st_lopes]

Are margins better on MIC cars exported from China to Europe, APAC, compared to those sold locally in China?

@The Accountant

Yes - MIC Model 3 SR+ gets better margins if sold to europe than if sold in China. The selling price is higher in Europe well above the additional cost to ship them to Europe.

Those cars are the main source of Tesla carbon credits from the Eurozone. It's about €5K per car, or 100s of millions worth on 50K cars.

Tesla needs to take advantage of these credits before they're gone in a few years (either through compliance or bankrupcy on the part of other automakers).

Beat me to it, but summarizes perfectly: higher selling price in those markets along with access to reg credit revenue.

JPR on Twitter believes that "net orders" translates to orders in excess of supply. I think that's likely.

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Interesting take on interpreting the language. Very accountant of him... measure net orders as new orders in months less orders delivered. So ANY positive net order number means demand outstripping supply. Hoping we get a few more reputable sources on MiC numbers overnight (but won't hold my breath).

 

[wipster]

Yep, that’s why you hire out the job. It would be foolish to have EM do it. Or you can make a conscious decision to let the FUD become the exclusive tool of the shorts until consumer consensus overpowers well funded media influencers and then all‘s well.

Agree completely but perhaps don't call it a PR Department. Just have one person be the designated Tesla "spokesperson" and give daily or weekly press conferences (not unlike those at the WH) to spread good news and to dispel the FUD. Maybe the person would be called the "Clarifier" which would be cool if her name was Claire. Be even better if they came from the competition.

 

[insaneoctane]

It’s almost as if the media is more concerned about telling their narrative vs the journalistic truth....Yet they’re SO reliable for political reporting...