Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Would totally give up my cybertruck reservation for a chance at this one! The big battery should compensate for the poorer aero.

On Twitter Elon responded to that image with "Hmmm"

 

[Watts_Up]

A lot of potential Tesla vehicles would sell like crazy... like a full size 9 passenger Cybertruck SUV.

I think people don't realize the size of the Cybertruck... until they will try using a Supercharger !!!

My neighbor was moving last weekend and used a F-150, he had to maneuver very hard to park, and was not really legally parked, blocking partially the access.

A baby Cybertruck, the size of a Jeep Rubicon would be more practical for many people, unless you are a carpenter and need to carry a lot of plywood or drywalls.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla related: UK - Gridserve working with Tesla, co-locate their own and Tesla chargers - so non-Teslas see Teslas come & go, chance to chat. Previously Electric Highway had a contractual monopoly on many motorway sites, usually only 2 chargers, often iced & not working. Gridserve have bought them out & seem REALLY good. Their Braintree centre has vehicle leasing, cafe & shops. When they have upgraded Electric Highway sites, they added loads of chargers. Unfortunately didn't seem to be many/any suitable for cars such as old Zoe, Leaf. Otherwise this can drive EV adoption in UK generally

Gridserve CEO (Toddington Harper - EV World Congress) has driven Tesla for many years & his parents named him & siblings after UK Motorway Services (fuel/break locations - no idea what they are called in USA/NA English).

Any of you mountain/island owning Teslanaires want to copy them in different countries? Good model for others, including local governments

Spoiler: Details-Pics-Twitter

UK: Electric Highway Opens Largest Motorway Fast-Charging Site

Electric Highway, the UK's first nationwide charging network, has launched the first ultra-fast charging site under its new partnership with Gridserve.

insideevs.com

Gridserve in foreground, Tesla chargers in background, all together

 

[RobStark]

A baby Cybertruck, the size of a Jeep Rubicon would be more practical for many people, unless you are a carpenter and need to carry a lot of plywood or dry walls.

Retail customers buy vehicles based on want not need. The opposite of businesses.

Elon has said the Cybertruck proportions don't work for a significantly smaller truck. Eventually, they will make a pickup for Europe/RoW.

Prompting many Europeans on twitter to say they want an authentic Cybertruck.

 

[Watts_Up]

Retail customers buy vehicles based on want not need. The opposite of businesses.

Elon has said the Cybertruck proportions don't work for a significantly smaller truck. Eventually, they will make a pickup for Europe/RoW.

Prompting many Europeans on twitter to say they want an authentic Cybertruck.

The Model S came first, then the Model 3 came later. I imagine the Cybertruck will follow suit.

 

[wooter]

Also, pickup popularity is pretty much noting in Europe. Families don't buy pickups. They buy compact SUV's (VW ID.4 size) or small vans (Renault Kangoo style).

Professional services don't use pickup trucks to work in Europe. They also use small to medium vans (up to Mercedes Sprinter).

That's not to say they aren't available, but the market is limited. Gardeners might use a Ford Ranger or Nissan Navara style pickup, which I'd consider as being compact pickups compared to the F-150, Dodge Ram or Cybertruck. The odd F-150 or Dodge Ram in Europe is mostly a model behind the latest model and owned by an enthusiast, with a natural gas tank to cut back on fuel costs.

 

[Watts_Up]

Also, pickup popularity is pretty much noting in Europe. Families don't buy pickups. They buy compact SUV's (VW ID.4 size) or small vans (Renault Kangoo style).

Professional services don't use pickup trucks to work in Europe. They also use small to medium vans (up to Mercedes Sprinter).

That's not to say they aren't available, but the market is limited. Gardeners might use a Ford Ranger or Nissan Navara style pickup, which I'd consider as being compact pickups compared to the F-150, Dodge Ram or Cybertruck. The odd F-150 or Dodge Ram in Europe is mostly a model behind the latest model and owned by an enthusiast, with a natural gas tank to cut back on fuel costs.

Have you even seen a Japanese Fire Truck !!!

 

[EV Promoter]

This is a good video:-

Bottom line, any innovation can eventually be copied if there is the will, the talent, and the money to do that.

But culturally many existing carmakers are not well set up for rapid innovation, financially, and in terms of engineering talent, they are not well set up. But senior management having the vision and the courage to take risks, is even more challenging..

The additional factor I would add, is not knowing the starters gun has been fired. To rapidly scale EV production over the next 5 years they would need all key building blocks in place now,... casting, batteries, engineering, finance, factories... The problem with copying is, you are always several years behind...

This is assuming the megacasting idea is 100% fine & dandy.
And that is going spotless because Musk is a genius. When in actual fact is known to fall in love with ideas & pretend people to deliver.

Being a substantial technical task, it cannot be assumed is a total good choice.
And there's extra possible problems for the final users.
I would not hurry to claim is an historical turning point in manufacturing with no drawbacks of sort, & others are old farts lagging behind, let's see how develops.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/maqqfc

 

[FrANce]

No more red caliper brakes for Model S/X Plaid, they now seem only available for the Performance 3/Y. For me, that's a bummer but will still convert my Plaid+ order to a Plaid. Hope most others will too.

 

[RobStark]

Also, pickup popularity is pretty much noting in Europe. Families don't buy pickups. They buy compact SUV's (VW ID.4 size) or small vans (Renault Kangoo style).

Professional services don't use pickup trucks to work in Europe. They also use small to medium vans (up to Mercedes Sprinter).

That's not to say they aren't available, but the market is limited. Gardeners might use a Ford Ranger or Nissan Navara style pickup, which I'd consider as being compact pickups compared to the F-150, Dodge Ram or Cybertruck. The odd F-150 or Dodge Ram in Europe is mostly a model behind the latest model and owned by an enthusiast, with a natural gas tank to cut back on fuel costs.

Current pickup offerings in Europe don't have lockable storage and relative to vans/CUVs they use a lot of fuel.

A Tesla pickup for Europe would have neither drawback.

Americans did not buy 5 door sedans in any significant number before 2012. Now Model S dominates sedan sales in its price class.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Gotta love it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402452983678476288

The reporter spoke of the manned vehicles being replaced with autonomous vehicles in the future. Not quite up to speed on OTA updates then.

Yesterday I spoke to a family as we got into our cars exiting a car park. They were interested in the Tesla, but could not buy one as “there were no charging stations in their home town”. Turned out they had a garage, and 6kW of home solar. You can guess the rest of the conversation as I went through the basics of charging at home.

Two examples to remind why there is no demand problem. The ICE mindset is still the default. People cotton on - slowly.

 

[agastya]

If they are priced the same and has the same specs, why would anyone care which Y they get?

Because consumers do care, at least a subset does.

For example, in Samsung's yearly Galaxy phone launches, they use their in-house Exynos chips for the Asian and European markets. The US market exclusively uses Qualcomm Snapdragon chips which to date have performed better. There are people who prefer to get a Snapdragon device shipped... Samsung knows this and they've offered free buds/extra storage capacity in the other markets to keep pricing same.


Again, all of my pipedreams are based on the assumption that Elon/Tesla have sandbagged Kato Road yield and output. Moment of truth in less than 48 hours.

 

[jerry33]

The more traditional looking pickup to go alongside the Cybertruck & really take from the Ford F-150 Lightning reservation holders/target market.

No. The old styling will be obsolete once there are a few CTs out there. No one will want the old style--that's just how fashion works.

 

[nativewolf]

The biggest problem for Detroit would be the UAW. The German IG Metal union seems to be the best at embracing new technology, but even they are not great. Britain's Unite union seems to be just as bad as the UAW. The rest fall somewhere in between.

The UAW would strike before having stamping jobs erased or having some workers retrain.

They are against any change. Until they figure one or all of the Big 3 might go out of business if they don't change. But that takes massive market share loss and disruptions to the company before they agree change is necessary.

IG good at embracing change? NO Fing way. They are the worst of the worst of the worst. They are good at keeping germans employed because they have 40% of the board seats. They are terrible at innovation. Germany and Japan have very complicated supply chains that are often relationship driven or driven by complicated and hard to see cross holdings. The US unions really don't even matter, non event.

 

[willow_hiller]

Small, interesting residential solar development. New panel installations now come with a metal yard sign. Relatively small marketing expense, but could get neighbors interested.

 

[nativewolf]

IG good at embracing change? NO Fing way. They are the worst of the worst of the worst. They are good at keeping germans employed because they have 40% of the board seats. They are terrible at innovation. Germany and Japan have very complicated supply chains that are often relationship driven or driven by complicated and hard to see cross holdings. The US unions really don't even matter, non event.

Now the US leadership, or lack thereof, that is pretty darn important. Just think, you could have bought GM stock at 1972 dollars and never ever have had a positive return on investment. 1972 2002. 50 years of declining or flat stock price (might be off a year or two either direction but point holds). 50 years of moving no where or backwards is not on unions (japan, german, or us). That's all leadership or lack thereof. Detroit, with the single exception of Chrysler with Lee Iacocca, has been completely adrift for decades and decades.

 

[nativewolf]

Small, interesting residential solar development. New panel installations now come with a metal yard sign. Relatively small marketing expense, but could get neighbors interested.

Not in MD is it?

 

[RobStark]

IG good at embracing change? NO Fing way. They are the worst of the worst of the worst. They are good at keeping germans employed because they have 40% of the board seats. They are terrible at innovation. Germany and Japan have very complicated supply chains that are often relationship driven or driven by complicated and hard to see cross holdings. The US unions really don't even matter, non event.

VW is transitioning several factories from ICEv to BEV in Germany/Europe and embarking on building several GF in Europe totaling 240 GWh by 2030 with IG Metal consent. IG may not be "great" or "good" at embracing change but better than other automotive unions.

The UAW very much matters. Their obstinance is what largely crated Detroit 3 market share from 90% to half that today. Detroit 3 CEOs have made many stupid decisions over the last 50 years but they did so with choices constrained by the UAW.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

This is assuming the megacasting idea is 100% fine & dandy.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/maqqfc

TBH that really doesn't look like that much wastage. We have seen a LOT of stacked cast components. No way is that a 90% failure rate, unless there is an entire warehouse of shredded bits that are hidden from view. When we are talking about factories that can make a thousand cars a day or more, looking at those bins of scrap doesn't seem like a big deal.

Tesla are VERY good at deciding somethings a dead end and scrapping it. The fact that they have ordered multiple casting machines suggests they know what they are doing. If they only had one, I'd be worried.

 

[Tslynk67]

Gotta love it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402452983678476288

Ouch at 1:14, that's a nasty edit!

But how great is this? I can't imagine how many people will get their first ride in a Tesla, then it's a persistent itch to keep scratching after that...