Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

Lumber price is sliding if people are freaking out about the inflation
Peak was on 5/7

View attachment 671389

I was really tempted to make a pun about lumber support being taken away by Tesla. But, I’m not going to. I hope you appreciate my restraint.

 

[bpjod]

Usually, the stonk goes down by a bit. For instance, check right after the CyberTruck reveal.

TSLA closes (split-adjusted)
Cybertruck Reveal [Nov 21/19]: $70.97
+1 month [Dec 20/19]: $81.12
+3 months [Feb 21/20]: $180.20

Yep, I'll take that kind of action again!

Yes, I know it dropped slightly, taking 13 days to recover. But since then!!!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lots of talk on the batteries, and I am looking forward to possible tabless with projected cost savings, charging speeds, range etc... but I wouldn't be surprised to see some FSD pre-release demo with subscription pricing.

I also think they will emphasize the Plaid's "Playstation 5 level" performance and infotainment "services" in the way of increasing cash flow. Which all leads into incredible margins, better than ICE, and w/o incentives or credits still.

I'm just waiting for the hit piece on Tesla and MMs with guns loaded to drive it down... for a little I'm sure. Maybe they fool Charlie Brown once again, but who in their right mind would sell now?

So what's the FUD strategy this time? Hopefully it's at least creative
- No "Real Orders" on their $$$ Car.
- Steering Yoke, what a Joke. How do you Turn?
- Promoting Energy Abuse and Fast Cars, again.
- Cost Cutting Leads to a Lighter Vehicle - Even Removed the Radar! What else?

Good luck everyone!

 

[Prunesquallor]

…

Now if the "another thing" is a Model 2.. Stock goes green even if T Yields go to 5% and I need to shove a wheelbarrow of cash to buy bread because of CPI numbers.

Well, that sure wouldn’t Osborne Plaid! I like that idea. Would show Tesla is addressing both ends of the market.

 

[MXWing]

TSLA closes (split-adjusted)
Cybertruck Reveal [Nov 21/19]: $70.97
+1 month [Dec 20/19]: $81.12
+3 months [Feb 21/20]: $180.20

Yep, I'll take that kind of action again!

Yes, I know it dropped slightly, taking 13 days to recover. But since then!!!

That’s cheating when you are using post event p/d and quarterly numbers as part of “events” to support the stock price.

I’m neutral to light bearish for just this week. (I am hoping I am wrong).

Very bullish once we get numbers that dispel the China FUD.

 

[Unpilot]

Well, "research" is a strong word, I meant stalking...

But seriously folks, ahem, no, when Karen was here she talked about a few things she'd been involved with and had ongoing, so I just Googled the stuff, and she's the real deal, as Stealth said, deeply knowledgeable on an eclectic range of topics, she cares deeply for a number of issues (climate obviously being one of them), and has a fiercely individual character

But OK, you can find articles written by myself out there too, some written about me, my Tweets have been used on major news websites, posts here have been regurgitated, etc. Same probably applies for others here

I guess one big difference is that we know Karen's real name, in my case, and most present, our names are not know - and probably best to keep it that way

But we know what you look like in short short's.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That’s cheating when you are using post event p/d and quarterly numbers as part of “events” to support the stock price.

I’m neutral to light bearish for just this week. (I am hoping I am wrong).

Very bullish once we get numbers that dispel the China FUD.

Very bullish once we get numbers that dispel the China FUD....

No matter what numbers we get...even if its 100% Q over Q...YOY....somehow...some way.....it will be turned into sales slipping due to demand problem.

 

[printf42]

It seems like we’ve had an influx of Care Bears and FUD-bots again this week heading into the Plaid reveal.

I sense a touch of fear from the other side.

It gives me the warm and fuzzies

Weird reflex…

 

[lascavarian]

Interesting pricing offered for autonomous driving. What about $4.20 per hr?

What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

Automaker also plans to offer video games that drivers can play while charging.

arstechnica.com

 

[geometro]

TSLA closes (split-adjusted)
Cybertruck Reveal [Nov 21/19]: $70.97
+1 month [Dec 20/19]: $81.12
+3 months [Feb 21/20]: $180.20

Yep, I'll take that kind of action again!

Yes, I know it dropped slightly, taking 13 days to recover. But since then!!!

I recall that not only was the design unknown, but also the pricing… one of these was polarizing and the other was widely applauded.

 

[brianhn1]

This is assuming the megacasting idea is 100% fine & dandy.
And that is going spotless because Musk is a genius. When in actual fact is known to fall in love with ideas & pretend people to deliver.

Being a substantial technical task, it cannot be assumed is a total good choice.
And there's extra possible problems for the final users.
I would not hurry to claim is an historical turning point in manufacturing with no drawbacks of sort, & others are old farts lagging behind, let's see how develops.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/maqqfc

I present you my previously posted TMC antiFUD(TM) from March of this year...quoted below:

The "shredder" described in the 2nd picture is not correct. The two ramps going up are actually just unused conveyors that currently feed to nothing present beneath them. They are probably used in the past to feed cardboard or paper into a horizontal baler. I build equipment used on horizontal balers and shredders.

If you look on google maps, the 2nd reddit picture is of the scrap yard located on the south side of the Fremont factory while the Gigapress is on the Northside of the Fremont factory. It isn't that hard to realize that the scrap aluminum doesn't travel that far just to be stored so likely that is from another source of the factory.

View attachment 647456

 

[MC3OZ]

Unless the 1865's and 2170's are tabless, I don't see how they could be structural. All their thermal management has so far been from the casing rather than the cap(s). Those wavy ribbons between cells used for coolant to draw/add ▲T, don't appear to be structural. When the late Jack Rickard and Sandy Munro tore into one, those ribbons seemed rather soft relative to steel. Did I miss something?

To be structural they need to remove those cooling tubes, which means end cooling...
I remember reading that Rivian had end cooled 2170s and they were not tabless.
I also think tab-less 1865s and 2170s are possible, but I don't think Panasonic is making tab-less 1865s.
I also remember reading a credible source on Reddit who claimed to working on a line for a new 1865 based Model S pack that would be used in Plaid.
We will find out soon, at this stage 2-3 scenarios are possible, that will come down to 1.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now the thing that would not Osborne anything and would also serve a huge supplementary role for the Plaid S (and vice versa) would be the wide release and demonstration of FSD Beta, plus announcing the release of FSD subscription.

I understand your enthusiasm, but I think the two will be kept separate. Elon has very recently tweeted that there will be one more release of vision-only autopilot to the entire fleet, then the FSD beta v9.0 in a week or two after that.

Meaning, expect a limited release of FSD beta v9.0 in early July if things go well. This is the mass market product, targeting mostly existing S/X+3/Y owners. FSD will not work any differently on the Plaid S, so no point in conflating the two products at the Plaid delivery event.

For those of you fantasizing about FSD hot-laps at Fremont in "track-mode", I'd like to remind people that vision-based autopilot is currently limited to 75 mph on the highway. FSD is not happening tomorrow. It would distract from the purpose of the event, which is promoting Plaid S.

Remember when folks here were anticipating a rocket-powered SpaceX-ed. Roadster would fly up on stage during Battery Day? Same fantasy.

Bty day was about cheap and plentiful batteries. Plaid is about the best car in the world.

Cheers!

 

[AlMc]

Which is exactly why I sell puts and calls, better to be dealing the hand than playing it

It is called 'Theta harvesting' and usually works quite well.

 

[FireMedic]

Today I worked overtime at a fire station I don’t normally work at. This is a battalion house with 8 people.

As per usual, I can’t shut up about Tesla and TSLA and today was no different.

Interestingly today somebody brought up the F150 lightening and how they had placed a reservation because they hated how the cyber truck looks. I won’t get into the details of that conversation but it did result in 2 cybertruck reservations. But, it didn’t end there. As fate would have it, my wife needed to pick up the model X and drop off the model 3P because she was going to the city with some girlfriends and wanted the extra space.

At the beginning it was just one of the guys that wanted to take a look inside because he had heard a bunch of stuff about Tesla and didn’t know what to believe. 30 minutes later he had caught Tesla fever and place an order for a long range model three… This is a former military and skeptical of everything kind of guy.

probably just because it was coming from someone else’s mouth than mine; this triggered a cascade of interest at the station and suddenly everyone was outside looking at this car and making fart noises and using boombox and doing Caraoke.

Long story short, I’m gonna have to figure out a road trip to use at my 6000 free supercharging miles!

TSLA and Tesla to the moon!!

So…today I worked overtime again at the same firehouse where this original incident occurred. (I don’t usually work much overtime, but given this massive/unexpected TSLA buying opportunity, I have no choice)

I have an update.

One of the guys actually upgraded his long range M3 purchase to a M3P.

2 more were compelled by our discussion about plaid powertrain and converted their dual motor CT order to the Tri-Motor (plaid) CT.

…and yet another went full send and cancelled his model 3 purchase instead deciding on a Model S because he’s a hobby pilot and had no idea about the yoke steering which I can’t shut up about.

TBH I’m a bit jealous of both the new model S owners and the guys getting the updated M3P. Sucks being the schmuck in the room…

HOWEVER, they are all envious of how many TSLA shares I have. And for that I wanted to credit all of you; for in times like these, having a band of brothers and sisters who bring so much insight to what lies ahead, is invaluable.

Thank you. That is all.

 

[sdtslafan]

Estimated delivery for model Y is September in california

wow, just wow

 

[Thekiwi]

The Model 3 delivery event however was a disaster. No one was impressed with the 45 handbuilt Model 3's they produced and delivered in one month.

But yes.. the initial Model 3 announcement event was a huge paradigm shift.

Now if the "another thing" is a Model 2.. Stock goes green even if T Yields go to 5% and I need to shove a wheelbarrow of cash to buy bread because of CPI numbers.

A model 2 announcement would be a disaster, osbourning at it’s finest. How about we let Tesla actually finish building its new model Y factories first in Austin and Berlin before we attempt to take a sledgehammer to the demand for existing products by pre-announcing a significantly cheaper vehicle a couple of years before it would even realistically enter volume production?

 

[Thekiwi]

Estimated delivery for model Y is September in california

wow, just wow

Performance Y is still “2-10 weeks”.

hmmm….I wonder if this indicates Fremont model Y production might be for exports to new international markets from July.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

A model 2 announcement would be a disaster, osbourning at it’s finest. How about we let Tesla actually finish building its new model Y factories first in Austin and Berlin before we attempt to take a sledgehammer to the demand for existing products by pre-announcing a significantly cheaper vehicle a couple of years before it would even realistically enter volume production?

Yeah Model 2 isn't going to be announced/shown anytime soon and odds are whenever it does, it'll be in China to cater/play towards appeasing the Chinese governments as a China-Made car.

Really to me the list of possible things is:

Probable - V11 OS, Plaid Range bump of like 50-75 miles, other small new features of the new S/X

Maybe - V9 FSD shown and demonstrated

Possible but not likely - Reveal that 4680 cells are in Plaid/new plaid range is 500 miles, Semi update, updated Cybertruck shown off.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Performance Y is still “2-10 weeks”.

hmmm….I wonder if this indicates Fremont model Y production might be for exports to new international markets from July.

More likely that they have so much demand that they're purposely limiting LR Y in order to push more P variants for higher margins.

The Y here in Seattle is exploding. Never saw adoption as nearly as high/fast with the 3.