Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeC]

Has anyone here tracked SP movements in the days leading up to and the days immediately after Tesla product unveilings and delivery events ?

Would be interesting data.

Going back to the D event in 2014, it’s usually -> event ->

There have been a few exceptions, I think solar roof was one. This one might be different with no buy the rumor phase yet.

 

[elasalle]

Well, "research" is a strong word, I meant stalking...

But seriously folks, ahem, no, when Karen was here she talked about a few things she'd been involved with and had ongoing, so I just Googled the stuff, and she's the real deal, as Stealth said, deeply knowledgeable on an eclectic range of topics, she cares deeply for a number of issues (climate obviously being one of them), and has a fiercely individual character

But OK, you can find articles written by myself out there too, some written about me, my Tweets have been used on major news websites, posts here have been regurgitated, etc. Same probably applies for others here

I guess one big difference is that we know Karen's real name, in my case, and most present, our names are not know - and probably best to keep it that way

Oh and did the plan to sell Options calls not backfire on the Hedgies due to Gamma Squeeze

(I'm sitting on gangBuster CC's at 1700 for jan 23. The Mar and Jun 23s dont even offer 1700 CC anymore )

 

[Tslynk67]

Still trying to figure out why people on this forum on one hand claims manipulation to get people's call to expire worthless and on the other hand keeps buying calls.

Guess more people have success with leaps?

Which is exactly why I sell puts and calls, better to be dealing the hand than playing it

 

[MXWing]

Which is exactly why I sell puts and calls, better to be dealing the hand than playing it

I'm ITM on 180 Calls expiring next week. Someone out there sold them to me last year.

Took a very long time this year to recover from realized losses on 800 short puts too. Yes, I could have rolled it out but I felt it was a better strategy to start over with lower strikes on the way up.

I get and agree with your general sentiment but there's a lot nuance on both sides. Gambler's dont win as much, but when they do - they win a LOT.

 

[Tslynk67]

Oh and did the plan to sell Options calls not backfire on the Hedgies due to Gamma Squeeze

(I'm sitting on gangBuster CC's at 1700 for jan 23. The Mar and Jun 23s dont even offer 1700 CC anymore )

Trying to see the link here to my post... you lost me...

I also bought LEAPS the last week 10x each of June 2023 c800 & c1400, covers the upside nicely

If you're referring to Karen, she was working with call spreads, and she was tending to them regularly, so hopefully she didn't get caught out too badly

 

[ChefBoyardee]

Which is exactly why I sell puts and calls, better to be dealing the hand than playing it

Yep! I do the same, I sell shorter-term put spreads to fund leaps spreads - keeps time decay on my side

 

[dl003]

Going back to the D event in 2014, it’s usually -> event ->

There have been a few exceptions, I think solar roof was one. This one might be different with no buy the rumor phase yet.

Actually there was some buying the week before the original date. That vaporized quickly once the delay was announced. Now, we're in a pickle. Nobody wants to buy the rumor in front of May CPI. If tomorrow CPI is low, we might get some buying after all. If not, well...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I can’t be the only one wondering why they are still storing all these new Model S. Couldn’t they already have sent them to service centers around the country for delivery after tomorrow’s event? What’s stopping them from already cleaning them and prepping them for delivery in Q2? There are just three weeks left. Call me confused.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Unless the 1865's and 2170's are tabless, I don't see how they could be structural. All their thermal management has so far been from the casing rather than the cap(s). Those wavy ribbons between cells used for coolant to draw/add ▲T, don't appear to be structural. When the late Jack Rickard and Sandy Munro tore into one, those ribbons seemed rather soft relative to steel. Did I miss something?

As far as I understand, it's just the steel cell can glued to the top and bottom, which enables the structural strength by stabilizing the top and bottom sheets which provide the actual shear and buckling strength. Not its contents or surroundings.
Cooling ribbons will mostly just reduce pack density. The slightly reduced stability due to the lower number of cell can be designed around, as they need a solution to fill/handle empty corner & edge spaces anyway.

 

[jerry33]

I can’t be the only one wondering why they are still storing all these new Model S. Couldn’t they already have sent them to service centers around the country for delivery after tomorrow’s event? What’s stopping them from already cleaning them and prepping them for delivery in Q2? There is just three weeks left. Call me confused.

I'd guess that it would be similar to Apple where most of the details are known before the event.

 

[Singuy]

Always sell the news… Sharp sell offs even.
But it would be silly to sell or short something 33% off it’s ATH with monster p/d and quarters on the horizon.




Sell sell sell

Didn't the stock do well after the Model 3 event? Mostly because they announced pre order numbers.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I can’t be the only one wondering why they are still storing all these new Model S. Couldn’t they already have sent them to service centers around the country for delivery after tomorrow’s event? What’s stopping them from already cleaning them and prepping them for delivery in Q2? There is just three weeks left. Call me confused.

Apparently all of the Model Ss in the storage lot are long range models and missing certain interior trim pieces, per the sleuthing of others. Could explain why they're idling for the time being.

 

[MP3Mike]

What format is used in the PowerWall? There is a shortage of those too.

Last I have seen is that Tesla Energy products use 2170 cells from vendors other than Panasonic. (Samsung, LG, etc.)

 

[Beltsbear]

NanoGraf achieves 28% longer run time in a 18650 Li-ion cell - Electrek

NanoGraf says it has enabled the highest energy density 18650 Li-ion cell; the US will explore offshore wind potential in the Gulf of Mexico.

electrek.co

Interesting this company made the announcement today. If Plaid uses 18650s as is most likely at this point, it’s also highly likely physical changes have been made to the cells which Tesla may reveal tomorrow.

If I had batteries, the last place I would use them is offshore wind. peak shifting near solar or auto bidder FCAS is much more profitable.

 

[Singuy]

Usually, the stonk goes down by a bit. For instance, check right after the CyberTruck reveal.

I would say that was one over hyped event. The price action tells me the Plaid S event is not very hyped. They already went through what the car is about. So yes it's fast, but the only surprise that happened is the cancellation of the longer range Plaid S+. So pretty much all the bad news out of the way, and no one is expecting anything spectacular from this event.

So because of that I think this may be a buy the news event vs sell the news.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm placing my bet on the whole 4680/plaid + deal. I think we have a combination of things. As Elon said the Plaid might just be so good that there isn't enough differentiation between it and the plaid+. That seemed to be true even when they unveiled them.

I don't think anyone believes that Tesla is just drowning in 4780s yet. So, given that, if you have a fairly limited supply and assuming that the Plaid + required those cells, if the Plaid is good enough then you can save those cells for the Semi and Roadster. If we have lost the 4680 plaid + I believe we will be compensated with more Semi trucks and Roadsters in the near to mid term. Plaid S will not have the 4680s but perhaps we will be surprised with some improvements to 18650s. It's also possible that Plaid will have 2170s I guess. This really depends on what third party supply looks like right now.

 

[jerry33]

If I had batteries, the last place I would use them is offshore wind. peak shifting near solar or auto bidder FCAS is much more profitable.

That's correct, but this is likely governed by Texas where only energy producers can use battery storage because the Legislators have declared that batteries are an energy source instead of energy storage. Basically it's good legislation for fossil fuels and peaker plants

 

[elasalle]

Trying to see the link here to my post... you lost me...

I also bought LEAPS the last week 10x each of June 2023 c800 & c1400, covers the upside nicely

If you're referring to Karen, she was working with call spreads, and she was tending to them regularly, so hopefully she didn't get caught out too badly

Wasn't the original question whether Karen was a hired hand by the Hedgies, to entice retailers to buy calls.
If so then they kinda lost out on the gamma squeeze.

Now would be a better time for that kind of trickery

 

[MXWing]

Didn't the stock do well after the Model 3 event? Mostly because they announced pre order numbers.

The Model 3 delivery event however was a disaster. No one was impressed with the 45 handbuilt Model 3's they produced and delivered in one month.

But yes.. the initial Model 3 announcement event was a huge paradigm shift.

Now if the "another thing" is a Model 2.. Stock goes green even if T Yields go to 5% and I need to shove a wheelbarrow of cash to buy bread because of CPI numbers.

 

[kengchang]

Lumber price is sliding if people are freaking out about the inflation
Peak was on 5/7