Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

They can plan to build those also-rans, but will they sell in those numbers? With inferior charging networks, resistant dealers, inferior range and efficiency, inferior software, no chance of FSD like Teslas? At a price anywhere near profitable for the makers?

Or will Made-in-Germany Model Y do to ID.4 and Ariya what Model 3 did to Chevy Bolt? We'll find out soon.

We'll also find out how long Lightning and eSilverado last when Cybertruck blasts onto the market. I suspect bulletproof will beat the Jesus outta "Ford tough."

Chevy Bolt is a compliance car still selling in compliance numbers. About 25k units per year in the USA since introduced. Not having $7.5k credit and competing against LEAF/Niro EV/Kona EV with $7.5k credit does more to make GM offer $10k discounts than $40k Model 3 without Fed Credit.

Consultancy Alix Partners recently did a dealership study. It found on average a dealer made $1300 profit on service for every new car sold. Not revenue, profit. You can easily pad $1300 in extra profit on BEVs for dealerships vs ICEv. Dealer resistance is lack of knowledge. Ford dealers seem to be selling Mach-e just fine. Like ICEv compelling EVs get sold crappy ones sit on dealer lots.

Yes the "also rans" will likely sell in those numbers.

Most people want normal interiors. Steering Wheel AND Instrument Cluster. Grab handles, sunglasses holders, volume knobs, leather seats vs superior networks they will rarely if every use. FSD that is perpetually coming soon. Hands free Supercruise and similar will be more than good enough for many.

If driving 600 miles plus daily is regular for you then Tesla is definitely your EV.

The unveiling and introduction of S3XY hasn't collapsed demand for the rest of the auto industry. Neither the unveiling of Cybertruck.

I agree by 2040 Tesla will have the highest automotive market share in the USA and the world. But it won't be anywhere near 100%. Not everyone has the same priorities and taste as Elon Musk. There will be room for others to sell BEVs profitably.

 

[Jack6591]

Sadly, political leaning of the CPUC, and their actions just last Thursday, makes these rates look likely to pass. People leaving the grid? Not easy, as in California most all cities require a grid connection otherwise the home is red tagged as not habitable. Warren Buffet's NV Energy pushed these sorts changes through in Nevada. It put all the solar companies operating in Nevada out of business. Even Solar City and Sunrun closed down in Nevada. Thousands of workers lost their jobs to put a bit more money in Buffet's pocket. The Nevada PV owners even lost their "grandfathered" contracts. It took very expensive lawsuits the bring back the grandfathered contracts. It took a few years and great expense to bring initiatives to the voters to get back some sort of NEM in Nevada. All the while, NV Energy was spending the rate payer's money to hire countless lawyers and to spread misinformation advertising. This does not sound so benign to me.

Regulatory capture is a particularly virulent disease; it metastasizes from multiple sources. When considering legislation of this sort, it is important to identify all the players at the table. Utilities, labor unions, political action committees, and politicians — all placing their interests above ratepayers, above the environment.
Unlike the gun fights depicted in Hollywood movies; in the “old west” card sharks would often pull a knife and kill a cowboy before his gun would even clear its holster. The moral of the story is fight smart.

 

[Criscmt]

G-Austin: Next month? Any chance?
Btw, are there threads on the progress of G-Austin and G-Berlin?

 

[Buckminster]

G-Austin: Next month? Any chance?
Btw, are there threads on the progress of G-Austin and G-Berlin?

Giga Berlin/GF4 Factory Discussion

 

[Tslynk67]

Decanters arriving in Europe - just in time to add a bit extra to the Q2 results:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410130119109324800

 

[Tslynk67]

One observation from Germany: brought my car into service in Hannover on Monday for replacing a fried ultrasonic sensor controller.
The lot they have with new Teslas was already empty & no EOQ rush in sight. Seems like they could have sold more if they had gotten more cars.

Also met a new happy m3 Sr+ driver at a local charger yesterday. Had his car for 1.5 weeks

Indeed, there are zero, zippo, zilch Model 3 currently available in Germany...

Belgium has 8 - any colour you like, as long as it's red, 6 of which are ex-demo cars, Denmark 2, Norway 10

France has quite a few though, UK around 50, they'll get taken in Q3 no doubt

Indeed, maybe Tesla need to send a bit more Germany's way next quarter

The demand for Model Y is going to be crazy...

 

[Ocelot]

Forward Observing

Warning, content is not for day traders or most humans.

First there were golf carts. Then Chevy tried selling all electric cars ~ and took them back. Tesla came along and took electric vehicles to a whole new world. Overcoming range angsiety is an unknown growth.

Steering wheels have been around since the early days of the individual auto. Yokes have been around on aircraft, and armored vehicles for a long time. Earlier yet was a left and right stick control or lateral control. In my fifty-five +/- years of driving, the wheel has been the only used method of driving the cars I have driven. I drove a newly minted rocket launcher with a steering yoke once, thirty ~ no, forty years ago, but cannot recall enough to compare launcher 30 miles per hour vs Model S sixty-five miles per hour. If our Model X had been offered with a yoke, both my wife and I would have chosen the yoke. Our mindo-eye will want to see a round object for a very long time; probably, possibly, or maybe.

Highway upgrades/safety improvements. Awhile back thru my observations while driving our drunk teenager Model X, I mentioned the need for dotted/dashes at T-Intersections to better assist (right side of road). Xena veers slightly to the right towards the T-Intersection. However, apparently someone thinks like me, and painted dash lines at one such intersection along SR3 between Shelton and Allen in Washington. Makes a clear and present safety fix.

Remember or hear about the cassette vs 8-track car stereo systems? When I got out of the army for the first time I bet on cassettes. Need I tell you who won that race? Later there was the VCR vs Beta TV tapes. I bet on VCR; in both cases I have moved on to yet better technology. Today, car manufacturers are arguing over radar vs camera for self driving systems. Most are just waiting for a clear winner before betting the barn. Meanwhile Tesla’s database grows. Does Elon use radar or camera software to safely land the rocket/missile fuselage? What do legacy automakers use in their space programs? Do any of the legacy automakers write their own software programs?

I can talk from memory/experience straight edge rasors too, if you are bored.

Where will we be in ten, no twenty years? Still using cassettes?

Well worded post , but too convenient. Beta actually was better quality and superior to vhs, yet because vhs was cheaper, it became more ubiquitous and won out. So your analogy can easily cut the other way, with doing things like a yoke, not becoming ubiquitous and hence not winning out.

“The main determining factor between Betamax and VHS was the cost of the recorders and recording time. Betamax is, in theory, a superior recording format over VHS due to resolution (250 lines vs. 240 lines), slightly superior sound, and a more stable image; Betamax recorders were also of higher-quality construction.”





(although initially vhs could record longer)

Videotape format war

 

[jeewee3000]

Decanters arriving in Europe - just in time to add a bit extra to the Q2 results:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410130119109324800

I thought we told you the next time you'd show your tongue on TMC you'd be soft banned. No soup for you!

 

[H Mak]

Did my bit for Q2

 

[nativewolf]

They can plan to build those also-rans, but will they sell in those numbers? With inferior charging networks, resistant dealers, inferior range and efficiency, inferior software, no chance of FSD like Teslas? At a price anywhere near profitable for the makers?

Or will Made-in-Germany Model Y do to ID.4 and Ariya what Model 3 did to Chevy Bolt? We'll find out soon.

We'll also find out how long Lightning and eSilverado last when Cybertruck blasts onto the market. I suspect bulletproof will beat the Jesus outta "Ford tough."

Battery capacity is so so limited that I think everyone will sell everything to begin with. Well...VW might not sell the IDs without huge losses. They really serve no purpose. I believe they'll take the losses as they have contracted the battery capacity and have to use it somewhere. The ID platform is based on the MEB which is an ICE multivehicle platform and thus a terrible choice for EVs.

Fords battery vendor was stalled because of IP theft, took Presidents of 2 countries to intervene and get that moving. The f150 looks to be a fine vehicle and they can probably sell all they can make. The GM product however, who knows. Go test drive one and let us know @RobStark .

As @avoigt has mentioned the VW sales effort related to ID product in China has failed and for good reason. There is simply no reason to buy a vehicle that is worse than competitors. VW will be dumping it. Then go to the VW battery, it is years behind a Tesla or LG battery. That vendor is selling a 2010 quality battery. VW needs to discontinue the IDs as fast as it possibly can.

 

[nativewolf]

Also to @thx1139 point this is not year 1 of the ID 4, it was launched in 2020.

VW will sell over 100k ID.4 this year.

VW might sell over 100k ID.3 this year. It almost certainly will in 2022.

Nissan plans to sell over 100k Ariya in Europe alone next year. Almost certain to do so worldwide.

Ford initially planned install capacity of 80k Lightnings per year. With reservations far exceeding expectations Ford is said to be scrabbling to add capacity. SKI is currently building a 10 GWh battery factory in Georgia to mainly supply Ford. Ford and SKI are expected to finalize a deal this Summer to construct two 30 GWh JV battery factories in the USA.

GM has almost finished building a 30 GWh in Ohio. Is about to break ground on a 2nd in Tennessee and has approved an additional two in a Joint Venture with LG. That is way more battery than Hummer and Cadillac Lyriq can consume. So an electric Silverado pickup with capacity over 100k units per year should be announced by Job1 of the Ford Lightning next Spring..

 

[Favguy]

WHOA....CNBS actually published 2 bullish analysts on $TSLA....upon further review, it was not written by our favorite columnist Lora Kolodny so makes complete sense:

View attachment 679425

Market has already decided the winner of the electric vehicle race, trader says

Tesla still looks like a better long-term play than legacy automotive stocks such as Ford and General Motors, two traders say.

www.cnbc.com

Frankly it beggars belief that anyone would consider legacy auto a good long term play at this point! At least it's nice to see something not entirely negative from the msm I suppose

 

[Favguy]

IMHO, those SINGULAR metrics don't mean much unless some sort of perspective is applied. In this case, I'd also combine a income metric to help visualize this better.

Simply, that 7.3 in Monaco is probably very different than 7.3 in Portugal and/or Iceland for average joe doe.

An income metric would be helpful and help to put things in context. I do strongly suspect though, that the average UK middle class citizen earns a fraction of thier counterparts in the US, so gas prices over here in real terms are most likely even worse than it first appears.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Indeed, there are zero, zippo, zilch Model 3 currently available in Germany...

Belgium has 8 - any colour you like, as long as it's red, 6 of which are ex-demo cars, Denmark 2, Norway 10

France has quite a few though, UK around 50, they'll get taken in Q3 no doubt

Indeed, maybe Tesla need to send a bit more Germany's way next quarter

The demand for Model Y is going to be crazy...

Can't be sure yet because it's only 1pm but looks like Norway have timed their deliveries well again. They only have 12 delivered so far today. The last couple of weeks they have normally had 50-100 at this time of day for a finish with 100-200. So looks like considerably fewer today and then very few overflowing into July. Well done.

 

[Mich]

Did my bit for Q2

View attachment 679605

Oh. I need this shirt. There's no Tesla merch store in Europe. Can someone buy it for me and mail it to Europe? Pleae pm me ;-)

 

[InTheShadows]

Well worded post , but too convenient. Beta actually was better quality and superior to vhs, yet because vhs was cheaper, it became more ubiquitous and won out. So your analogy can easily cut the other way, with doing things like a yoke, not becoming ubiquitous and hence not winning out.

“The main determining factor between Betamax and VHS was the cost of the recorders and recording time. Betamax is, in theory, a superior recording format over VHS due to resolution (250 lines vs. 240 lines), slightly superior sound, and a more stable image; Betamax recorders were also of higher-quality construction.”





(although initially vhs could record longer)

Videotape format war

Haha. 240 lines. On vacation a Vrbo we stayed at had a vcr with tapes. We showed the kids and they were shocked.

 

[15Peter20]

An income metric would be helpful and help to put things in context. I do strongly suspect though, that the average UK middle class citizen earns a fraction of thier counterparts in the US, so gas prices over here in real terms are most likely even worse than it first appears.

We do fewer miles over here than in the USA which offsets the price difference a bit.

Just looked up the annual average mileages: we in the UK are around 7500, the US around 13500 miles. Surprised we are so low.

Slightly off-topic, but whenever I've been arguing with the 'what happens when everybody plugs in their EVs' crowd I've tended to use 12000 miles average in the UK, so 32 miles per day, 8kWh-ish so just over one hour of charging per night per car.

7500 miles, however, is more like 20 miles per day, 5kWh so 43 minutes charging.

How the hell the 'the grid can't cope' and 'we need 20 new nuclear power stations' crowd are allowed to peddle their dross, based on this sort of real data, is astonishing. And annoying.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Indeed, there are zero, zippo, zilch Model 3 currently available in Germany...

Belgium has 8 - any colour you like, as long as it's red, 6 of which are ex-demo cars, Denmark 2, Norway 10

France has quite a few though, UK around 50, they'll get taken in Q3 no doubt

Indeed, maybe Tesla need to send a bit more Germany's way next quarter

The demand for Model Y is going to be crazy...

Possible exception of France, sounds like most of these could be delivered today? I suspect some of the EV lease specialists would pick them up either speculatively or especially if there's a discount

 

[Favguy]

We do fewer miles over here than in the USA which offsets the price difference a bit.

Just looked up the annual average mileages: we in the UK are around 7500, the US around 13500 miles. Surprised we are so low.

Slightly off-topic, but whenever I've been arguing with the 'what happens when everybody plugs in their EVs' crowd I've tended to use 12000 miles average in the UK, so 32 miles per day, 8kWh-ish so just over one hour of charging per night per car.

7500 miles, however, is more like 20 miles per day, 5kWh so 43 minutes charging.

How the hell the 'the grid can't cope' and 'we need 20 new nuclear power stations' crowd are allowed to peddle their dross, based on this sort of real data, is astonishing. And annoying.

Good points, I never entirely trust that average mileage figure though. Is it per car, or per household? I consider myself a low mileage driver, have no work usage at all now, but easily get through 12k a year just on domestic running about, hardly even do any longer trips by car these days. We do live semi rurally though, so I suppose the figures are kept low by the high number of city dwellers!

 

[UkNorthampton]

We do fewer miles over here than in the USA which offsets the price difference a bit.

Just looked up the annual average mileages: we in the UK are around 7500, the US around 13500 miles. Surprised we are so low.

Slightly off-topic, but whenever I've been arguing with the 'what happens when everybody plugs in their EVs' crowd I've tended to use 12000 miles average in the UK, so 32 miles per day, 8kWh-ish so just over one hour of charging per night per car.

7500 miles, however, is more like 20 miles per day, 5kWh so 43 minutes charging.

How the hell the 'the grid can't cope' and 'we need 20 new nuclear power stations' crowd are allowed to peddle their dross, based on this sort of real data, is astonishing. And annoying.

Agree, but congestion seems to mean the journeys are at least as long in terms of time. Lots of stop-start travel suits EVs, doesn't suit ICE. Tesla on autopilot vs ICE's constant LOWER gear shifting (both unpleasant & inefficient). ICE cars generally better miles per gallon than they used to be, but SUV uptake and congestion negates that.

So... I suggest amount of commute time/ fuel used per ICE car hasn't changed much, even with lower mileages.

I think the point is that anyone who drives a Tesla/EV will not go back to ICE. Demand for Tesla (as the best roadtrip/company car due to Superchargers) will just increase. More Tesla owners, friends & family, company cars, Police Teslas, hire cars etc will break down the FUD barriers. Tesla will NOT be able to supply enough cars for European demand for many years, even with Berlin & exports from USA/CN. ICE won't be wanted, people will hang to old ICE/hybrid on until they can afford (or more likely) can GET an EV and total car sales will dip until cells are available. Tesla just need to make as many as possible.

Edit: Also, higher driver average age / many retired drivers now so many more local trips instead of commutes might be bringing average mileage down from 12,000 to 7,500 - these are numbers that I remember being stated from the past and more recently.