Tesla has made many things "clear" like no Sr Ys. And yet here we are. Getting Model 3s ramping is the easiest since they have the most expertise, especially when they are trying an entirely new battery assembly at Berlin with the Y. This is just speculation on my part but Tesla is known to change plans on a dime.
Yes, ramping 4680's is not easy, and it's taking longer than everyone hoped. However, taking longer initially will not negate the tremendous advances that will accrue, plus the equally major improvement that will accrue as gigapresses ramp up, another thing that is taking longer than we had hoped.
Sadly, most 'analysts' and many of us become impatient for very rapid results, partly because, I admit, Elon Musk tends towards optimism himself. That is an issue, no doubt.
That said we would have no Tesla at all were Elon not overly optimistic. Even if we did we'd not have Model X, Models 3 or Model Y. Those all are the triumph of excessive optimism. We also would not have reusable rockets, Starlink or anything like Octovalves and so on through many examples.
Surely policies do change abruptly at Tesla. Production variants appear and disappear equally abruptly. Irritating, positively. For a very recent example, I really do want my Plaid, promised in June!
So, we now suggest that Tesla will take the easiest production solution and expand Model 3 just because it si now more mature than is the 4680 Berlin and/or Austin vehicles. Please think about this in then context of history.
Without repeating the long history of Elon Musk innovations I suggest only that anybody having doubts now should review the history. Once done, consider that he never takes the easy way out, but strives for the best way. On every subject that is true. hat approach does indeed make things arrives improbably, both late and early. From FSD to reusable rockets, Gigapresses to direct sales and so on.
So, do not ever think we'll have Model 3 because it is easy. We'll have Model Y in quite a variety of 'flavors'. Some will be late and others will appear spontaneously.
All of this is why shareholders pay. All of this is why people who lack vision persist in shorting TSLA.
Boeing said reusable rockets were impossible. GM and everyone else said electric cars were impractical. Now 'everyone' says FSD will not happen.
Now we have those among us whom doubt the 4680 will not arrive in high volume. This one is pretty simple; by Elon standards, that is.
We're soon to hear about a huge increase in profits driven in large part by a succession of practices, procedures and products that 'won't work'. Some will be disdainful.
So, please just think about it. Berlin will begin with Model Y. So will Fremont. The ramps will have 'hiccups' from 4680's to Gigapresses, new paint shops and much more. Quite soon we'll find it that all this has yielded yet more precedent-breaking advances.
Have just a little faith!
I posted that number more to show how many bloody little anger purchases of 5 shares I’ve made over the past year rather than reveal my TSLA exposure. But honestly, I suspect I’m small fry compared to the HODLers and traders who dwell here and have kept me thoroughly entertained and informed over the past six years.
