Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[twtestw]

I explained why it’s irrelevant - it doesn’t change anything from an investment perspective. It’s just that simple.

Tesla makes hundreds of engineering changes week after week. Some more obvious than others. That’s right from the CEO’s mouth. So every shipment of vehicles IS an old version.

It’s been documented here what I need to see to raise a half eyebrow, let alone a full eyebrow.

Dang. Just looked at your join date and post count. You’ve definitely seen and heard it all so let’s just go with how you feel about this scenario.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Opinion: Climate change is about greed. It's time for big oil to pay us back
Kudo's to CNN for publishing Opinion article by Jeffrey Sachs yesterday entitled "Climate change is about greed. It's time for big oil to pay us back". Sounds like a playbook from TMC. Times are a'changing.

All part of the process to shrink big oil to the role of plastic makers. Eliminate one of their main customers (auto fuel) and charge immense reparations.

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 683005

Good timing.
I guess the Solarcity related court case for which EM was supposed to make an appearance on 7/12? will get thrown out

 

[kbeckley]

I have to be honest, I'm of two sides regarding all the recent price hikes on Tesla's:

1) As an investor I LOVE the price hikes because it's likely increasing margins and bolstering the bottom line!

2) As someone who supports Tesla's mission to accelerate EV adoption I HATE the price hikes because moving Tesla cars further out of reach of the customers is actively working against the mission.

I think I'd prefer it if the prices of Tesla's were trending downward, not upward.

Given that the readership on this forum mostly likely skews to the wealthier half of the population we tend to hyperventilate over the S and X and the performance of the cars. Tesla's mission however must ultimately be about he lower cost variants in the European and Asian markets. These 2 cars will ACTUALLY move the needle a long way. I love the roadster and the cybertruck but slightly cringe at how they might delay these 2 cars. I have always told myself that Tesla needs to learn on these models before they move to these very price competitive segments.

So here is a question I would love to know the answer to: Can Tesla today make their cars for the same price as the best historic manufactures can (assuming of course it is approximately the same car). If not how many years behind are they? I know they are years ahead in software, batteries, drive train etc. but the raw cost of putting these cars together - how do they compare to, say, Toyota. If they are close how can they be beat? Hopefully their rethinking of how cars are put together (castings, integrated packs, no stalks) put them ahead even in this regard.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm dreading having to use a "normal"/decrepit-style UK car. Virtually all manual. No muscle-memory of clutch use, it's been too long...

+ve once you go electric, you'll have to be dragged back to manual/ICE

Muscle memory is known to stick around for a really long time. That explains the old expression that you never forget how to ride a bicycle.

You will be able to operate a clutch just fine but you will marvel at how you happily put up with such a mindless chore for so many years while just accepting it as a necessary part of driving.

 

[MXWing]

Well I agree about the EU, lots of competition there. I don't regarding China. There is competition there too; foolish to discount firms because they are Chinese. I view China as a poor investment but that's another story. Selling MIC vehicles in the EU may make a service headache for the EU service team as parts fail and repairs need to happen. It is not a small decision, every part on that MY is sourced in China, then you have to hope it works with the platform part sourced in the EU and/or the USA. Ughh, glad I'm not in charge of that logistics situation.

Pass the pipe, I want some of what you are smoking.

Supposedly Tesla would attract top talent at the upper echelons. Following that assumption, you would certainly not be in charge of running logistics.

Tesla Q2 P/D in the middle of a pandemic, rampant inflation, chip shortages, labor shortages, logistical shortages proves you have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[Stretch2727]

Did not see this posted. To me this one of the biggest reasons to buy a Tesla.

The EV 1000: 11 EVs Face Off in a Long-Distance Race

A 1000-mile race reveals what it's like to drive an EV long distances in 2021.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[2daMoon]

Given that the readership on this forum mostly likely skews to the wealthier half of the population we tend to hyperventilate over the S and X and the performance of the cars. Tesla's mission however must ultimately be about he lower cost variants in the European and Asian markets. These 2 cars will ACTUALLY move the needle a long way. I love the roadster and the cybertruck but slightly cringe at how they might delay these 2 cars. I have always told myself that Tesla needs to learn on these models before they move to these very price competitive segments.

So here is a question I would love to know the answer to: Can Tesla today make their cars for the same price as the best historic manufactures can (assuming of course it is approximately the same car). If not how many years behind are they? I know they are years ahead in software, batteries, drive train etc. but the raw cost of putting these cars together - how do they compare to, say, Toyota. If they are close how can they be beat? Hopefully their rethinking of how cars are put together (castings, integrated packs, no stalks) put them ahead even in this regard.

There is a lot of available information to answer that question. Anyone reading this forum for the past couple of years would have a pretty good idea. Other outlets like the most common YouTube channels on Tesla are great sources.

Here's the short form. Over the long term EVs are already there. Once the costs of fuel and maintenance of an ICE vehicle is calculated over a five year period of operation, BEV wins, hands-down. This has been the big selling point for sales to police departments and other similar use customers.

Beyond that is the base price at the time of sale. Battery cost is the determining factor, though much has been done and is in process on the manufacturing front to reach parity. If the 4680, mega-castings, and general improvements that lead to reduced costs of manufacturing come to fruition, then, we will have crossed the Tesla Event Horizon and BEVs will be lower purchase price, faster, quicker, safer, and cost less to operate and maintain.

This could happen in as little as the next 12 months. Either the Model 3 or Model Y are slated to overtake the Corrola in annual units sold very soon.

Add to reaching parity, the fact that the legacy OEMs in their struggle to remain relevant in the EV space must cannibalize their ICE manufacturing and sales in order to have any hope of survival. ICE sales are already in decline YoY and this trend will be reflected as a mirror-image of the S-curve representing the exponential growth of BEVs.

It would seem that the question you have posed is actually on the cusp of being answered in the marketplace.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The competition... in UK

Goodwood Festival of Speed's most popular area according to this video was the ELECTRIC area. Lots of electric cars that some people on this forum might not have seen before, especially all together. Huge audience. I really think EVs/Tesla have gone well beyond the early adoption chasm - majority of people buying new expect their next car to be electric. Lots of interest from people you'd expect to be petrolheads. Very encouraging

 

[Prunesquallor]

Muscle memory is known to stick around for a really long time. That explains the old expression that you never forget how to ride a bicycle.
…

But you can come close. Started fitness biking again after ~30 years. Let’s just say the start of this year’s Tour felt familiar.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Given that the readership on this forum mostly likely skews to the wealthier half of the population we tend to hyperventilate over the S and X and the performance of the cars. Tesla's mission however must ultimately be about he lower cost variants in the European and Asian markets. These 2 cars will ACTUALLY move the needle a long way. I love the roadster and the cybertruck but slightly cringe at how they might delay these 2 cars. I have always told myself that Tesla needs to learn on these models before they move to these very price competitive segments.

So here is a question I would love to know the answer to: Can Tesla today make their cars for the same price as the best historic manufactures can (assuming of course it is approximately the same car). If not how many years behind are they? I know they are years ahead in software, batteries, drive train etc. but the raw cost of putting these cars together - how do they compare to, say, Toyota. If they are close how can they be beat? Hopefully their rethinking of how cars are put together (castings, integrated packs, no stalks) put them ahead even in this regard.

Order of production priority, if based on most favourable environmental impact should be:
1st.: Semi (used 50% of time (trucking), offset extremely high CO2 emissions)
2nd.: Cybertruck (used 30% of time (business), offset high CO2 emissions)
3rd.: Model 3/Y (used 10% of time (to/from work), offset low CO2 emissions)
4th.: Model S/X (used 10% of time (to/from work), offset medium CO2 emissions)
5th.: Model 2 (used 10% of time (to/from work), offset very low CO2 emissions)
6th.: Roadster2 (used 2% of time (pleasure), offset high CO2 emissions)

The Model 2 will replace cars such as the Toyota Yaris and Honda Fit. Yes, from a production standpoint (batteries) you can produce more Model 2 product than S/X for example, however these smaller car form factors are far more efficient and give off far less CO2 emissions than their larger counterparts, or those used for industry/business (i.e. Semi and Cybertruck).

The day these beasts get taken off the roads could not come soon enough. Tesla to the rescue!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Did not see this posted. To me this one of the biggest reasons to buy a Tesla.

The EV 1000: 11 EVs Face Off in a Long-Distance Race

A 1000-mile race reveals what it's like to drive an EV long distances in 2021.

www.caranddriver.com

Agree. I mentioned this earlier.

I watch Out of Spec YouTubes which chronicle US EV road trips. Although they are EV enthusiasts and always keep a positive attitude, their non-Supercharger experiences would drive me bananas.

edit: typos

 

[mblakele]

Britain’s car industry is finding Brexit far less of a problem than expected
Britain’s car industry is finding Brexit far less of a problem than expected
from The Economist

Journalism, and legacy carmakers, are starting to catch up with Tesla’s ideas. Still a few years behind, though.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Britain’s car industry is finding Brexit far less of a problem than expected
Britain’s car industry is finding Brexit far less of a problem than expected
from The Economist

View attachment 683094

Journalism, and legacy carmakers, are starting to catch up with Tesla’s ideas. Still a few years behind, though.

Headline & article don't seem to match up. This quote is key: "eye-watering amounts of government cash". Much of which might be illegal/against the Brexit deal, leading to tariffs & more

I agree with your points re catch up. Tesla move faster than the targeting system. There's a need to lead for speed

 

[jbcarioca]

You might be thinking of the Buick Envision, which is exported from China to the US. The Encore is made in Korea.

Oops. Corrected

 

[jbcarioca]

You might be thinking of the Buick Envision, which is exported from China to the US. The Encore is made in Korea.

Yes, it was. The Encore is also close to the best at GM but I depended on bad memory.
FWIW, I hired an Envision in LA last year and was surprised how good it was.

 

[Wicket]

1st.: Semi (used 50% of time (trucking), offset extremely high CO2 emissions)
2nd.: Cybertruck (used 30% of time (business), offset high CO2 emissions)
3rd.: Model 3/Y (used 10% of time (to/from work), offset low CO2 emissions)
4th.: Model S/X (used 10% of time (to/from work), offset medium CO2 emissions)
5th.: Model 2 (used 10% of time (to/from work), offset very low CO2 emissions)
6th.: Roadster2 (used 2% of time (pleasure), offset high CO2 emissions)

The Model 2 will replace cars such as the Toyota Yaris and Honda Fit. Yes, from a production standpoint (batteries) you can produce more Model 2 product than S/X for example, however these smaller car form factors are far more efficient and give off far less CO2 emissions than their larger counterparts, or those used for industry/business (i.e. Semi and Cybertruck).

View attachment 683088
The day these beasts get taken off the roads could not come soon enough. Tesla to the rescue!

There might be a convenient single variable way to model this which would be essentially that the goal is to maximize total kWh used by Tesla vehicles on the road since CO2 displaced is proportional to that. Although at least one complexity is strategic value in the sense that one has to anticipate what products allow for a bigger area under the curve when stretched out into the future. This could favor unlocking certain models first before the other. (edit: maybe I'll just stick with market cap as the optimized number ;p)

 

[jbcarioca]

Always amazes me the level of information members on this forum have at their fingertips.

Me too! The ability we all have to fact check each other is amazing. I really appreciate how my own errors are quickly spotted!

 

[2daMoon]

Let's kick this weekend off with something new from the Tesla Economist.

This episode supports several of the points made in my eariler post.

 

[Drezil]

Forward Observer

Asking the question. What if the Tesla opponents in Germany use as a screen the political opposition most opportunistic to them; wolf in sheep clothing, to legally oppose Tesla GF Berlin.

Bottom line, who might be shifting money to fund opposition to GF Berlin to a group wanting to protect lizards or snakes. Can you read between the tea leaves? I am trying to be short and concise without naming names or pointing fingers.

Fossil fuel does not care about life, let alone jobs ~ be they German, Chinese or Other.

Tesla fought similar battles against independent car dealerships.

Opposition is always difficult ~ the losers here are jobs and alternative fuel sources. Having said that; the flip side is the loss of displaced fossil fuel workers.

Well one organization that was very aggressive in protecting the forest was from Bavaria and not local.. just sayin